CPS question on E to E flows has some selection issues & likely undercounts job to job moves. FMP have an approach to rectify the issue, but they only publicly share national average of their E-E rate cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/campuspress.ya…
This isn't a population defined by age, but defined by level of personal financial gain from economic safety nets implemented in response to the pandemic---including enhanced unemployment benefits and suspension of rent payments. The government is enabling refusal to work.
Can someone plz help me square the circle on how these ppl can quit?
UI supplements are gone. Inflation is up
We have a mediocre saftey net & Americans have little cash savings (much less retirement) outside of hone equity
How are ppl making ends meet?
I mean I guess you’re talking about ppl in the market just switching jobs but still
If you were low skill and on the sidelines, presumably seeing $20/hr Amazon fulfillment jobs would entice you but...that isn’t happening?
what we know: quits are highest in leisure/hospitality/retail.
conjecture: this is low-income work in a sector w/ lots of job openings. possible the ppl quitting aren't primary breadwinners and/or quitting to take another job imminently
this is my hypothesis as well. think about how many of those workers were part-time and have decided to care for kids or aging relatives now. people have savings, but are also spending less and have re-evaluated their lives. easier to live within means / on one income.
But on some level there’s a push pull?
I.e. if you’re correct then it’s gonna be hard for outsized GDP growth (~8%) to happen Q2/3 2022 when Covid effectively ends?
I just think “pent up demand” is incongruous w/ “ppl now living w/in means & fewer ppl in labor force”
Honestly you’re prob right which is yet another reason I think that proposed IRS rule is bad news bears
There’s prob a *ton* of cash (unreported, untaxed) propping up working class. It’s honestly better to just leave it be
Eh, it fits w/ my (idiosyncratic) world view
I think ppl Americans generally like rules & feel good hewing to them
But minor rebellions are a deep part of our nat’l ethos and not being 100% honest on taxes is something a lot of ppl do (consciously or not) ((not me!))
Again, supposedly ~4 million people willingly quit their jobs. Some are going to get a better job. Some are parents who are realizing the salary cut when canceled out by daycare cuts might be worth it. Others are people in their late 50’s+ who can retire.
I believe the JOLTS report doesn’t break out gender but my bet would be a big driver of the increase in quits is to take care of children, would expect then more women quitting as data shows child care affects them more
Anecdotally, several Boomer neighbors have sold their $1m+ homes, bought black Mercedes vans or RVs, and are headed for parts unknown. Yesterday, one couple shared their “plan” which includes first visiting many wineries & breweries.