Convopage
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Yesterday I rented a boat and took the leader of one of Flexport's partners in Long Beach on a 3 hour of the port complex. Here's a thread about what I learned.
2,666 replies and sub-replies as of Oct 23 2021
First off, the boat captain said we were the first company to ever rent his boat to tour the port to see how everything was working up close. His usual business is doing memorial services at sea. He said we were a lot more fun than his regular customers.
The ports of LA/Long Beach are at a standstill. In a full 3 hour loop through the port complex, passing every single terminal, we saw less than a dozen containers get unloaded.
There are hundreds of cranes. I counted only ~7 that were even operating and those that were seemed to be going pretty slow.
It seems that everyone now agrees that the bottleneck is yard space at the container terminals. The terminals are simply overflowing with containers, which means they no longer have space to take in new containers either from ships or land. It’s a true traffic jam.
Right now if you have a chassis with no empty container on it, you can go pick up containers at any port terminal. However, if you have an empty container on that chassis, they’re not allowing you to return it except on highly restricted basis.
If you can’t get the empty off the chassis, you don’t have a chassis to go pick up the next container. And if nobody goes to pick up the next container, the port remains jammed.
WIth the yards so full, carriers / terminals are being highly restrictive in where and when they will accept empties.
Also containers are not fungible between carriers, so the truckers have to drop their empty off at the right terminal. This is causing empty containers to pile up. This one trucking partner alone has 450 containers sitting on chassis right now (as of 10/21) at his yards.
This is a trucking company with 6 yards that represents 153 owner operator drivers, so he has almost 3 containers sitting on chassis at his yard for every driver on the team.
He can’t take the containers off the chassis because he’s not allowed by the city of Long Beach zoning code to store empty containers more than 2 high in his truck yard. If he violates this code they’ll shut down his yard altogether.
With the chassis all tied up storing empties that can't be returned to the port, there are no chassis available to pick up containers at the port.
And with all the containers piling up in the terminal yard, the longshoremen can’t unload the ships. And so the queue grows longer, with now over 70 ships containing 500,000 containers are waiting off shore. This line is going to get longer not shorter.
This is a negative feedback loop that is rapidly cycling out of control that if it continues unabated will destroy the global economy.
Alright how do we fix this, you ask? Simple. And we can do it fast now,
When you're designing an operation you must choose your bottleneck. If the bottleneck appears somewhere that you didn't choose it, you aren't running an operation. It's running you.
You should always choose the most capital intensive part of the line to be your bottleneck. In a port that's the ship to shore cranes. The cranes should never be unable to run because they're waiting for another part of the operation to catch up.
The bottleneck right now is not the cranes. It's yard space at the container terminals. And it's empty chassis to come clear those containers out.
In operations when a bottleneck appears somewhere that you didn't design for it to appear, you must OVERWHELM THE BOTTLENECK!
Here's a simple plan that @POTUS and @GavinNewsom partnered with the private sector, labor, truckers, and everyone else in the chain must implement TODAY to overwhelm the bottleneck and create yard space at the ports so we can operate against
1) Executive order effective immediately over riding the zoning rules in Long Beach and Los Angeles to allow truck yards to store empty containers up to six high instead of the current limit of 2. Make it temporary for ~120 days.
This will free up tens of thousands of chassis that right now are just storing containers on wheels. Those chassis can immediately be taken to the ports to haul away the containers
2) Bring every container chassis owned by the national guard and the military anywhere in the US to the ports and loan them to the terminals for 180 days.
3) Create a new temporary container yard at a large (need 500+ acres) piece of government land adjacent to an inland rail head within 100 miles of the port complex.
4) Force the railroads to haul all containers to this new site, turn around and come back. No more 1500 mile train journeys to Dallas. We're doing 100 mile shuttles, turning around and doing it again. Truckers will go to this site to get containers instead of the port.
5) Bring in barges and small container ships and start hauling containers out of long beach to other smaller ports that aren't backed up.
This is not a comprehensive list. Please add to it. We don't need to do the best ideas. We need to do ALL the ideas.
We must OVERWHELM THE BOTTLENECK and get these ports working again. I can't stress enough how bad it is for the world economy if the ports don't work. Every company selling physical goods bought or sold internationally will fail.
The circulatory system our globalized economy depends has collapsed. And thanks to the negative feedback loops involved, it's getting worse not better every day that goes by.
I'd be happy to lead this effort for the federal or state government if asked. Leadership is the missing ingredient at this point.
It’s the damn chassis! It’s amazing how simple this really is.
Also, not taking empty cans is bananas…they have to be redeployed at some point. Asia is going to be backed up next…no containers 🤷🏻♂️. Bananas times we live in 🍌
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Can you do it and ask for permission later?
The world needs you!
sure is
Excellent summation.
Amtraks rail passes right through Camp Pendleton which is massive, it seems it might’ve been built with this emergency in mind by someone smarter
Heard an interview the other day that containers are actually being left in local neighborhoods right now. These are great thoughts. I hope they get implemented! 🙏
How exciting would the world be if we had leaders that enabled this kind of action. I really hope it happens.
you could try to start a petition to get attention of politicians
Don't know what would be needed for this but auto lots are currently empty or close to it, auto auctions have large locations that, given the vehicle shortage, could likely store empty containers for the foreseeable future.
As a BCO here’s the most fucked up part… steam ship lines are then turning around and charging detention fees when you are late to return a container, which you inevitably will be because there are no appointments
Congratulations @typesfast!! Get it done!
If it were simple, it would have been done. Renting a boat was a waste of time because you only see the supply chain backlog at the port. The backlog is farther down stream with the retailers accepting containers between 8-5.
Ryan this is a fantastic write up! Quick question: won’t we still have a bottleneck with the number of truck drivers? Any proposals to fix that?
Amazing. Can we hire you for the climate crisis? Specifically that part about not doing just the best ideas but all the ideas NOW.
US went to a five day work week in 1908, by taking off Saturday and Sunday. In 1890, the average worker worked 100 hours per week.
you don’t need the same workers working all 7 days broski, dif workers for dif sets of days…how do you think hospitals or anything else open 7 days a week works?
Too bad we can’t find anyone that wants to work.
Is that really an excuse to fail?
At least one port went to the radical step of "running two shifts" because apparently they weren't?
Congrats, @typesfast
I don’t know if the track gauges are right, but Anaheim Angels Stadium has a huge, flat parking lot, has rail lines running along the north side of it, and should be pretty empty right now.
About the only non-standard track gauges in the US are narrow-gauge tourist trains and weird systems like SF BART.
Thanks. I don’t know ton about trains.
Good point. I could say the same about the Oakland Coliseum and its access to train tracks. Probably lots of other viable options around major ports.
This needs a marketing campaign to leverage public support. The Battle to Save Xmas
Not familiar with long beach infra, but I presume there must be container depots around. If zoning is changed, even 4 containers on top of it should be fine. 2 seems really restrictive. This alone would double the capacity in existing yards/container depots around the port.
Unfortunately, this problem affects everywhere; our logistics investment in Asia has a model based on utilizing import empties for export, eliminating the empty legs. However, due to container shortage, it's impossible to arrange these round use orders.
Most warehouses around the port should have a 70/30 split, e.g. 30% is yard area. They can certainly spare 10-15% for container storage - logistics operators already do this for their own business.
Soo there's millions of empty containers clogging American ports and Asia is out of containers? Like whats the deal??
It doesn’t seem that restrictive when you remember this is earthquake country. It’s not some random restriction.
Cheers for the breakdown and update Ryan!
Leadership, actually, was missing earlier causing this crises.
This is unbelievable to have been allowed to have snowballed to this level in 2021 !
Displays "silo syndrome" at work.
I am sure there's a case for claims from authorities that created or perpetuated this crises.
Thank you for sharing this experience. As an expert in the field, what is your take on this opinion from Cato that is making the rounds today? Thank you twitter.com/CatoTrade/stat…
+@scottlincicome explains how long-term, systemic problems—and bad U.S. policy—have made the global "shipping crisis" far worse than it could or should have been by exacerbating delays at almost every major U.S. port: bit.ly/3zToWOL
#CatoTrade
THIS IS AWESOME
Neighbor has acres of large empty unpaved lots all over Long Beach / Los Angeles metro.
If @POTUS follows Ryan's plan, @neighborstorage will provide emergency yard space for containers and foot the bill.
Let's solve this!
The Flexport guys are all over this - first taco Tuesday and now port tours. Maybe we could store containers in the parking lot of a mall?
Politicians these days are one trick ponies. The skills required to get elected are totally irrelevant to actually solving problems in the real world. Plus, they'll be beholden to some special interest whose toes they would need to step on to get stuff done. Ain't happening.
People: a guy named Ryan just solved the global supply chain disaster. Get on board! (pun). Seriously, industry folks need to solve this now. Long Beach: start by waiving your container stacking rules temporarily.
Do you think it's a good thing that our Secretary of Transportation is on two month paternity leave during this time?
Agree that operational changes must happen. Trying to stuff 1,000 pounds of flour into a 10 pound sack won't work. I'd start with a moratorium on LA/LB so they can dig out. Insane to keep sending ships. Yes, regional destination freight will need to dealt with and can be.
So, where does the volume go? Not easy to answer. Start with the other WC ports that can handle big ships including Van and Rupert. Then look at EC US and Canada via both Panama and Suez. I know this requires massive shifts for the lines but what else is there?
Vessel size is a problem. Severely limits port choice (a root problem). Probably means more Suez routing to EC ports like Halifax, Norfolk, Baltimore, maybe NYNJ, wherever there is fluidity and ability to handle the ships. Other interventions possible but costs are huge.
So, assuming some authority could mandate carriers (rails and MTO's too) to do these things (unprecedented, not likely to happen and maybe no legal basis), who pays? Shippers and consumers shouldn't but we are now. Just look at the rates/liner carrier margins.
At these rates, smaller vessels can run a profit on longer voyages. I think it would be great to see the return of direct container services to the Great Lakes. I believe there is only one such service now but they do not provide equipment so it can be difficult to use.
There is one service, the Cleveland-Europe Express that my port @portofcleveland started. The operator Spliethoff does provide boxes. Recently added a small pure boxship to string. Still a drop in the bucket but it’s the right idea.
Just came across this too.
"The Port of Duluth, Minnesota, said it now has the ability to receive international ocean containers, providing inland intermodal shippers the ability to bypass truck and train routes into the US Midwest."
joc.com/port-news/us-p…
Seems to me ship lines and rails should pay because they own the problem and they've massively profited form it. Unfair? Isn't this because of Covid demand spike? I'm a contrarian and don't believe the root cause is demand. Demand spike exacerbated and exposed the problem.
Liner industry obsession with scale (mega-ships) at expense of all else a huge factor here. Led to over-concentration in handful of ports and lanes. We're left with a network that has too few nodes and links and little possibility to reroute traffic around bottlenecks.
Returns to scale have limits. Lines have pushed massive costs on ports and landside infra to accommodate mega-ships. Much of this has been publicly funded, hence a subsidy to lines in effect and a double whammy on consumers already paying for all this.
Sure, lines reduced their slot costs on the water but pushed a huge mess onshore as a result. Europe seems to be handling better and I think there are lessons to learn. More nodes, more links, robust short-sea/ feeder/inland waterway use, truckers treated better.
Conclusion: we are in a world of hurt. Effective federal interventions unlikely even if they could figure out what to do and had legal basis. Lines and rails won't do much because not in their financial interest. Even the biggest shippers have limited levers to pull.
Bulldoze everything civilian in the area for more yard space, golf courses, shopping malls, residential neighborhoods. . .
No photos? ?
Yes please .
So the root cause of the port logjam is too many empty containers, but you never provide an answer as to why there are so many empty containers and what changed to make it different from normal operations.
Apparently the port worked before due to a mysterious hidden energy we'll call port karma. Like dark matter port karma is hard to detect. When that karma disappeared everything fell apart!
If you import more than you export empty containers pile up. Many have loaded the empties on ships to send back to Asia, but with 70+ ships awaiting to be offloaded and the speed/logistics difficulties of loading empties while using up a dock while other ships wait causes issues
That’s the negative feedback loop they are talking about
lol you think they want to fix this? how cute!
Edwards AFB is about 100 miles away. Massive capacity (300,000 acres).
I dunno if "federal or state government" will see your tweet tho
The just in time everything to support the few that thrive on it's eurnings is a heavy systemfailure.
A truck driver neighbor tells me he cannot go into CA because of emission standards. IF that's true, seems like relaxing those temporarily to get to your 100 miles RR drop off would be a good thing? Thank you for this, and can you possibly unroll?
This is neat and transparent.
Excellent thread and suggestions. Any thoughts on how the bottlenecks built up? Without fully addressing the systemic issues that lead to the current bottlenecks, the proposed solutions may just shift the bottlenecks to new nodes. Even so, fully concur as buying time helps.
Did you ever read The Goal? This sounds literally just like this problems. 🤡
Truckers are indicating that the ban on older trucks and owner operators is why containers are not leaving the ports.
What about drivers? Do we have enough of them?
LA Port Commission is in charge of this isn't it? They approve regulations. According to their website they are volunteers - appointed by Mayor of LA and approved by City Council.
portoflosangeles.org/commission/boa…
OMG, this is amazing.
Thank you.
May I suggest you reach out to Ron Klain?
What fraction of cranes can drop directly onto trains?
Sounds like victorville or the railhead in barstow. Unlimited BLM land nearby. About a 2 hr drive from long beach and the exits from California are nearby. The 15 and the 40
A lot of good thoughts here. Could the Gov of CA declare a state of emergency?
Hey @typesfast we want to help.
How is this a scenario that was not considered and planned for?
I love your analysis and all your points made. I believe by far though, your last point is the most pertinent. “Leadership is the missing ingredient…”
Just wondering, has anyone bothered to tell Long Beach and LA how their zoning codes are impacting this situation? Often awareness is half the battle.
Would be happy to join you. Glad Flexport is leading on these issues that have real impact on businesses and consumers.
You get the leaders you deserve.
Having worked for a container trading/modification shop (and having visited CA & BC ports with my dad during the 1971 port strike), I love this thread and your solutions. It’s pretty arcane stuff to everyday Americans, but🤞your plan gets traction.
Hi @kidehen I've generated a #KnowledgeGraph nugget from the #thread created by @typesfast at: linkeddata.uriburner.com/outarde/?uri=h…
#LinkedData #SmartAgent
Fantastic breakdown. I sell bottles to wineries and our containers are stuck (we also pull from Oakland) I have been telling clients for the last 18 months that doomsday is here and get glass today if you can take it. We need as many trucks (with chassis) as possible to run 24/7.
There is so much open desert surrounding LA this should be more than doable. If the US Military can build instant cities in the desert, a temporary container yard should be easy!
Fascinating time to be working in supply chain and your approach is absolutely spot on. Hands on & moving forward. Love to see it resolve soon
If only there were train yards in the ports that could haul away huge amounts of goods.
Sounds like a job for trump and everyone on the planet knows it
The chance that the Governor of California and/or POTUS will take this type of action is Zero. With a capital Z. Lack of foresight, understanding of the real world, political will, and just plain common sense combine to ensure that REAL action is impossible.
“Leadership is the missing ingredient” will be a re-occurring theme for the rest of his presidency. 😢
Read the 🧵 journalists! 📢
@MZHemingway @megynkelly @GovRonDeSantis
Yeah, the last guy was a leadership genius…. /s
Is there ANY indication that federal or state governments are even spending time on this?
Good thing we’ve got @PeteButtigieg @POTUS @GavinNewsom at the helm instead of someone like this! #sarcasm
can you hire this guy?
amen brother
just one question: are you planning to take any paternity leave in the next 6 to 9 months?
Thank you mr Peterson.
As an engineer in a different field (software) who enjoys complexity management, your solutions are absolutely brilliant and we would only need a few to solve the issue.
I hope they hear you.
His solutions, if correct, are actually practical and simple. If he is correct it appears to be regulatory red tape causing this mess. What the actual f*ck! Our brilliant government at work again.
This is all based on the assumption that the administration wants to relieve this bottleneck. Check your heuristics
agree on leadership and it seems that you are not on paternity leave @USDOT #AmateurHour
assign your job to someone competent
Does no one read "The Goal" anymore? Or study the theory of constraints and bottlenecks. Your suggestions are good, but I don't think the bureaucracies can change enough to allow it (local, state, federal, and union).
Now a suggestion that I didn't see (or missed). Can CARB rules be overruled so more trucks can come in, even if temporarily? Would trailers still be the constraint?
The Commander in Chief can make any type of order in relation to the military. They can take over land temporarily (or permanently) if need be.
Did you know Oakland, Portland, and Seattle also have ports?
there's a yuuge yard of empty shipping containers I see from the @metrolosangeles train near the Del Amo station, looked at it dozens of times, but now I can't remember if they're stacked only two containers high 🤷🏻♂️ @LongBeachMayor
do you know this dude? Please tap into him and not in the biblical sense
Very good common sense plan! Are you a logistics planner? If only someone wanted to make situation better? Here is a legitimate plan that will make a almost immediate impact and can be implemented easily. @WhiteHouse @JoeBiden
Thanks for doing what men do: solving complex problems.
Road freight and specially shipping overseas requires long term planning, complex, scheduling, financing, insuring, storage, stock, preventing supply manipulation etc. It will never be perfect.
Suggested solutions for long term; see next post:
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Seriously?
I've been talking about the looming supply chain problems for 13-14 months now...
He’s probably mad they are dumping containers on his front lawn down in California. 😹😹😹
It’s not ‘some shitty stock’ either… It is *the* stock to own right now on this theme….
Seems like the perfect example of what the DPA and the national guard/military are made for @POTUS @GavinNewsom
how about storing the empties somewhere on federal land in the desert temporarily ?
Can’t they utilize mall parking lots for container storage? Most sit empty and unused and port towns tend to have many dying malls.
1. Hyperloop networks in the ocean. <att><Musk><add more>
2. Sustainable airfreight fuel.*
3. Faster airtravel and sustainable rocket loops for “Just In Time-delivery”, with less scheduling issues.<att><MuskStarship><self.att>
desired application earlier communicated for Cargo.
Unless they want to destroy the economy???
What about their wages?
But what happens normally with the empty containers? Why is that now a problem?
The empty containers are normally returned to the port where they can be stored and reused—since there’s no space for them, they can’t be returned, so the chassis they’re on can’t be freed to pick up another, full container.
Ryan Petersen for POTUS!
You might as well appeal to a thunderstorm.
You'd likely have issues overriding local zoning ordinances with an executive order, but you *could* just allow any company to store empties as high as you pleased on federal land AND compensate them for doing so
Brilliant. Sounds like you'd make a brilliant @USDOT secretary since our current one is nowhere to be found.
<att><RP><Taking initiative to form and lead a committee; problem analysis and ideas and proposals for solutions; allowing a broad program of actions to be collaborated>
<self.att><attribute proposal as useful, valuable example analysis, proposal, and initiative><convert2Govner>
HELLUVA thread. About 3 tweets in my wife said "oh this guy is talking Lean here."
Excellent info. Thanks!
Why don’t shipping companies use other ports on the west coast? The longer trip should still be faster than waiting for days at shore of LA right?
Happy to license you “ƒRP”should you accept the attributions, convert them into startup Govners, take accountability for attributing other ideas and appointing executive firms to execute for trial-, error-, progress- and result-attributions, for which you are auto-attributed >
<Govner-protocol>
<att><PaulGraham><Informant of tweet of RP>
Isn’t there a humongous intermodal exchange just over by Apple Valley? With BNSF and UP yards that are hundreds of acres?
Let's go Ryan, @typesfast
we need to do something before it is too late
Excellent synopsis of the problem and potential solutions you offered. For some reason I just don't think they're going to take your advice and leverage this crisis to their advantage. Good job anyway.
Meanwhile raise interest rates / stop QE to curb demand. This here to is the root cause for the jam 👇
The carbon footprint your plan would create is too large, we must consider the effects of climate change in solving this issue.
I've long maintained that the root cause of any news story is a lack of leadership. That was why this book was written. Clearly, both leadership development & leadership selection are badly flawed on a global level. Let's find the leaders to fix this. I'll make myself available.
The empties should be placed back on dedicated ship and moved up to the old Alameda air station. Plenty of room and need hardware on site.
It is a relief to hear concrete ideas about how to untangle this snarl. I cringe whenever I find freight has been booked to LA/LB. We have one container on a ship that has been off the coast for days, and isn't expected to be able to dock for another week. @POTUS please listen!
the issue is that those in charge want the system to collapse so they can rebuild a dystopian surveillance state on the ashes.
you should lead it. no idea who you are but yeah you are the man for the job.
How many of the containers are from chinese embargo? I know Portland almost wound up with the same mess from a chinese carrier after embargo-is this any part of the equation and if so when can the Port as in Portland begin selling them off?
You are hired. Eugene that is.
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lmao this is so good.
Ryan Petersen = Tyler Durdan
Where did u get Lisan al Ghaib from? 😁
It’s the epithet of Hafiz, the 14-century Persian poet.
Hafez - Wikipedia
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en.wikipedia.org
I turn to face my fear, and only a crane bottleneck remains
The containers must flow.
fear is the supply chain killer
I can’t wait to see the Netflix movie of this where Hayden Christensen plays you saving all of our collective supply chains
Send the spice containers nearby on the Kwisatz Haderach railroad
Great 🧵. Thanks.
Your heart is in the right place but I think collapse and despair is the feature of this administration not a bug.
Dagny Taggart energy.
Why arent railroads hauling containers to their inland freight terminals? They can stack empty containers there until they are needed again.
We need your help for sure. Unfortunately the transportation Sec is still on maternity leave, last seen on a swing in his backyard.
Last reports I heard fron the Producing Countries empties are missing there. Ship the empties there. Organise to sell the empties at travel cost to there. Restart the circulation its a worldwide economic system.
Wait. The Port of LB already moves containers by rail out away from the port to larger unconstricted distribution centers. What happened to that?
Or . . . Why not buy stuff #MadeinAmerica . No ports needed.
Great thread!
Leadership is lacking in the government. The people who have worked those docks and spent careers doing logistics know the issues. I bet I could find a longshoreman with a plan to solve this that would work. It’s not planning it’s ability to execute through tremendous red tape!
Sure but then Mayor Pete would have to come back from paternity leave!
Great to hear a proposal that could help break the container jam.
FYI Another article I read, written by a trucker, says that trucks and drivers are waiting for two to three hours for a load. They are seeing crane operators take two hour lunches, & moving containers real slow.
Great thread, thanks!
Wonder if you or others could look at the queuing theory aspects, how slight overloads cascade into gridlock
And how it was the Port—which must’ve had SOMEBODY on-staff who knows more than a bit about how things could spiral—let it happen?
How about priority for ships willing to unload and reload with empty containers ?
Chassis can’t move on their own, you need truck drivers
Why not require any inbound shipping to leave with as many (or more) containers than they brought (even if empty)?
Hey Ryan, not sure if you remember me (friend of Bryant W). Have you spoken to WH staff on this? I can get you a connect.
Thank you for explaining the situation. Please correct me of I'm wrong, there's obviously solutions to this port congestion issue but why is it so difficult to get things done whenever we deal with anything that's infrastructure related?
very weird. because i have heard there is a container shortage. WT
Everyone - please retweet this - this news has to go viral to get something accomplished.
What about making containers fungible? They are identical metal boxes, after all.
Very enjoyable read. But you know who you are dealing with right? The same guy who jumped out of afghanistan...
Please flood @PeteButtigieg and co with this until they respond appropriately. Excellent breakdown.
You missed one, have Gavin reverse his ridiculous rule barring independent owner/operators from picking up containers at Cali ports.
This is not going to happen. Which means doing their job for them. That may put up a lot of red flags for people, but that's how delegation works.
At this point, the relevant elected officials have been given every opportunity to do their job. 1/2
However politicians are usually very responsive to their top donors who presumably are going to be severely impacted by this.
Any guess why there is still a lack of leadership despite that?
It's amazing how little will there seems to be to implement such simple solutions.
Well done Ryan.
Just FWIW: This is an excellent example of the consequence of the 'demilitarization', (which can rapidly respond with men and equipment outside of economic constraints) into bureaucracies that can't. See the failures of Borders, Disasters, Disease, now Trade.
1. How about each shipping line send a couple ships over that do nothing except take empties
2. Loads still take forever to get unloaded at the warehouses because nobody is working to unload them
Activate armed forces reserves and allow unused military equipment to transport canisters.
Fed government should be allowed to step in since this does effect global economy.
Why? The reserves a are already stretched very thin with commitments. They shouldn’t be used for every little issue that arises especially when nothing else has been tried/ done. There no czar, there’s no meeting of industry, etc.
Because I the end result of all of this is global economic ripples, conflicts could and may arise that would put our troops lives at risk. Depending on whose financial interests are at stake.
Disruptions within one of our major ports could also *potentially* have nat sec implications.
I'm sure people much smarter than I am in those areas could come up with more than one scenario that could easily become a reality.
So urgent that the Secretary of Transportation can’t or won’t return early from his paternity leave. If isn’t an emergency for the person that’s supposed to leading the effort to fix the issue, then it’s not an issue for the reserves yet.
That's the best you have?
That argument is weaker than weak.
It’s a responsibility of the Sec of DOT. If the sec won’t lead, and have other priorities maybe they should excuse themselves after all it’s National Security, right? Thousands reservist civilian livelihoods and households be affected for the “tragedy of delayed treadmills.”
Are other ports like San Francisco experiencing problems?
Great thread Thank You
Awesome assessment of the problem. How can I help to get this to the right people?
get this guy working on this problem, now!
Long term, rebuilding the rail network to create hubs away from the port seems like a good idea, though financially I can't imagine anyone taking that on these days
Pretty sure this is a now deliberate feature and not a flaw considering the geopolitical zeitgeist with the dollar hegemony at stake.
* cough *
Beirut.
* cough *
The election is not until 2024.
I know ships have been coming to San Diego for off-loading. The other problem is truck drivers hours or service (HOS). Truckers can only drive for so many hours, and be on-duty for so many hours. Unless, the FMCSA changed this, then there a problem.
This is a great synopsis, yet seems still symptomatic. Have you encountered any data or studies about the current trucking environment, driver morale, pay & retention?
You’ve already proven via Twitter explanations more capable of problem solving, than most in govt. I hope you are provided opportunity to be in involved in the solution.
unroll
Duh.. who could have guessed, competency is rare these days, especially in government and administration
Bingo!
Always has been the missing ingredient except JFK who the CIA took down for various reasons #Bitcoin
Question: Would selling the empty container's at a discounted rate help or hurt the situation? That could be one alternative if it helps. I personally would love to get ahold of an empty container for making a pool, but they could also kick off a home building trend.
Jones Act repeal
Effective immediately Long Beach is allowing cargo to be stacked up to 4 containers high at container lots across the city. And up to 5 containers with safety approvals. Previously 2 had been the limit. This is a temporary move to address our national supply chain emergency.
Yes 100% a leadership problem.
Sounds well thought through. Probably Twitter isn’t where you should start, of course.
Create a warp speed kind of effort . Good inside and suggestions
Happy to join you on this effort! The government needs all bright supply chain and logistics minds working on this now!
Ryan - you’re amazing! We’re all grateful that you are stepping up to ‘overwhelm this bottleneck’! Bravo! Hoping the Mayor of Long Beach, Newsom, and others will take you up asap! American 🇺🇸 entrepreneur to the rescue!!
Coordinate 💞
twitter.com/ltgrusselhonor…
Glad to hear @POTUS @VP @WHCOS considering using Military to assist clearing the Ports , most of our Logistics Port units are in the @USArmy the @USNationalGuard work for Governors , WH should ask @US_TRANSCOM to do assessment, not listen to WH interns . @MSNBC @CNN @nytimes
Great thread! But can I trust a “Ryan PetersEN” to lead?!?!? Danish? Idk… I might have to take my chances with global economic collapse thank you! 😉
Can they leave the empty containers in the riverbed and let homeless people shelter in them?
That is probably not the best idea.
Incredible - evaluate, understand, strategize, implement. This is what we are missing these days. Great post- hope you are able to go to work.
This is amazing - and not in a good way. Your plan, though, is amazing in a very good way!
Thank you for identifying and articulating this major operational problem that the government will definitely not solve because they can’t put competent people like you in charge
But, who needs infrastructure.
I'm pretty much in love with you because of this thread. I hope someone who needs to see it does (or many who need to see it do).
Great thread…and nightmare fuel about the economy
I think Long Beach has just cancelled the stacking limits. A small start.
Thank you! It all makes sense now and I have no problem with you running this operation.
Frank Sobatka never would have let this shit happen.
Great thread! Get in touch with David McCarthy, who used to be counsel to the Senate Energy Committee. Trains are his lifelong love. His dad was a railroad exec. He will use your silverware @ dinner to illustrate a spur line routing problem. He can help move containers by rail.
Huge thanks for this!
If this saves Biden's presidency, which saves US democracy, which save human civilization, we owe you big time!
save recap
THe Goal - never starve the bottleneck. Thanks for your work!
Whenever non-essential regulations are creating the problem and regulator won’t lift them, I am suspicious
There's plenty of space at the Victorville Airport to store empty containers.
Ok but what if you have an evergrande stranded in the suez?
There seem to be at least couple abandoned Military bases in CA. abandonedspaces.com/public/george-… don't know if any have rail but at least a ton of flat solid ground to overflow the empties
George Air Force Base in California: decaying structures, apocalyptic landscapes, and a lot of tumbleweeds - Abandoned Spaces
George Air Force Base was opened in June 1941 and officially closed in 1992 at the end of the Cold War. Since then, parts of it have been left to deteriorate under the hot sun. For more than 50 years, the former US military base was a bustling community and center of important military operations. […]
abandonedspaces.com
My only question after reading all this is- how are you NOT running it right now?!
save thread
I hope he sees this bro
This is the result they want
This would have never happened under Trump. That’s all I know.
How busy are the ports in Mexico?
Why was none of this a problem until the past 6-12 months? It doesn’t make sense that everything just stops working all of a sudden.
Paging @PeteButtigieg ....
You obviously are NOT on maternity leave
Port congestion has an inflationary impact.
All the above propose re-organising resources to be more efficient in clearing the container traffic jam which would have a deflationary impact.
People get too hung up on the Fed & the money supply & not enough on the above.
Yup, @GavinNewsom is not a leader. This backup has been going on since last summer!
Could this surplus of unused containers somehow be converted into housing for unhoused people? Fitted with real doors, electric? 🤔
What a fabulous insight.thankyou. from someone naive this is incredibly eye opening.
I'm a retired supply / logistics officer with many awards under my belt. I also drive forklifts up to 15,000 lbs.
I'll come to work for you to get this done.
One more change we need in the future, we need more ports to be able to accept neopanamax sized ships.
You speak of the problem like the government wants to fix it.
The leader went on maternity leave. time for a new one!
(No comment)
So, really, this was caused by SoCal zoning laws.
Thank you for taking action, personally I don’t understand how this isn’t a national emergency and wasn’t escalated months ago, industry wasn’t brought together for a think tank to create ideas, funding, etc. we need action and appreciate you stepping up.
Well...read it all and actually understood your plan. My contribution: "Where the hell is Marlon Brando when we need him?" A reference that probably will be lost on most for his Academy Award winning appearance in the Academy Award winning 1955 movie "On the Waterfront".
This is by design. They Want to crash the global economy. It’s the great reset. People need to wake up!
Absolutely. Sort of a coronary bypass of containers.
Thank you times infinity because I finally have some hope that there are solutions to this nightmare.
Pleeeaase reach out to the White House about this. Can @PeteButtigieg assist with this?
Sorry, meant to tag @SecretaryPete
You are incredible.
This sounds like Atlas Shrugged playing out in real time and you sound like Dagny Taggart just begging the idiots to stop breaking the world. Between the emission standards stopping trucks from coming in to all the problems you mentioned they are breaking us with idiocy.
Good piece Ryan, this is happening in uk but you missed the main culprit. The shipping lines, they are storing empties in port rather than get them where they are needed. Short supply in China higher rates more money. Sea freight is X5 what it was last year
Unless the lines are forced to take containers where they are needed then this will continue. It is more beneficial to pay storage rates on their containers as the higher freight rates compensate and as they don’t own all the containers they do have to pay for half of them!
No brainer for the shipping lines. Higher freight less costs for ships as they are not full because there are not enough containers in the tight places! This increases costs and leads to inflation so when prices are higher blame the shipping lines!
Thank you so much!
Thanks for your efforts Ryan.
If there is anything the public can do….
Let us know. I’ve got products chilling at sea.
As do many people. This is a huge problem!
Give this man a job!
Why has the cost of containers from overseas to here skyrocketed. $3,000 to $30k. It affects my wife’s retail store… product cost ⬆️⬆️
And it’s been going up like this since early 2021. Before the bottleneck
Great ideas. We import from China. Board games just aren’t made in the US any more, and the few that do are too expensive and THEY can’t get paper 💁🏻♀️
I’ll bookmark this and share it with our freight experts and Director of logistics. Thanks!
What a bout newsomes policy taking 20% trucks off the roads, because of....emissions?
Basic question, sorry if it’s too stupid: if there is a shortage in supply, how is that there is no space to allow unload of new cargos arriving? Is it because the idle capacity containers are waiting at the US port for the trip to “China” to get back loaded?
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Absolutely shocking that it takes a private citizen (not a government employee / agency) to observe the ground situation and develop solutions. What exactly have we been paying the Department of Transportation (ahem, @SecretaryPete) to do?!
Ryan, I'm not sure you explained WHY there is no yard space? Did they just get flooded with containers during one event and things spiraled, or is it worker shortage?
Funny how the free market hasn't solved the problem. What happened?
Stop buying Chinese goods ...
Silly question: Why can’t empty ships act as temporary storage for these containers? Obviously someone has to pay “rent”, but better than standstill for everyone, no?
Concludion this hsppens ehen you steal election
I assume returning empty containers effectively represents a loss in itself? Maybe time for emergency subsidy (or levy-financed?) to motivate shipping lines to carry out the task? NTM they also have 'skin in the game' to clear the bottleneck & shippers must be low on containers?
Well done. This is great leadership
The answer is: MEGA TESLA ROBOTS CRANES!
Sounds like something @elonmusk could do, he really is up to the task. Also, he will be fixing an problem that @JeffBezos created.
I admire the boldness of your thread entirely omitting the elephant in the room: the fact that drayage trucking in the US is basically modern-day serfdom, meaning everyone who was forced to leave during the slowdown will not return (+ COVID w/o health. ins. deaths/disab).
A 2017 reference: journals.openedition.org/interventionse….
It's not like the problem couldn't have been seen coming for a decade or so.
Same in UK twitter.com/sensorpro/stat…
Shots fired: e-commerce expert @VinnyandCo on the UK shipping crisis.
How much of this can be redirected to seaports in Baja California (Mexico)?
Scariest part of this is how all of this is just to fix one specific part of the problem. One, ONE, link in a very long chain.
It's a positive feedback loop. You get back more of the bad thing you have. This is a standard engineering term. Please get this right. It's so frustrating to watch people misuse this.
Positive feedback - Wikipedia
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en.m.wikipedia.org
Number your thread pieces
System hasn't collapsed.
It's been sabotaged.
Sabotaged by the governments, local, state, and federal.
Only an idiot would enlist government to fix a problem it created.
Pete’s on maternity leave sorry America.
Virtuous rehabilitation cycle needed, to replace present coffin corner condition
(No comment)
Unfortunately this is actually good for the communist party of China not starting a nuclear war with us
We can do fine without Christmas presents but they can't fund their ICBMS all by themselves when they're having flooding and mass food shortages
Sucks to have started C19 imo
It’s time for some CPR (cargo + port rearrangement).
Can we use river barges to store the empty containers and leave them tethered to other ports along the coast? (there are many smaller ports or Navy bases like ports there by Hueneme, Seal beach, Laguna Niguel, oceanside).
I wonder if it is feasible to ship a bunch from eastside
so youre saying capitalism is destroying itself... and you want to stop it? the hell is wrong with you
Of course you have a substack, lol.
Have you stop to think... maybe just maybe... this has been their plan all along? It’s to ridiculous
I can't stop thinking how similar effect has this with what happened at the Suez Canal... And these two events so close to each other. It's like something were about to come
Eliminating red tape is a big part of it, the military bases are key here as they have a lot of space and often a lot of chassis to spare. The truckers unions also bottle necks at the moment as those truckers use their own chassis so who gets the military chassis and who doesn’t?
setting up a temporary government yard where all empties can be unloaded (allocate $ to pay truckers to drive there and back) military forklifts to facilitate this helps with national guard staffing the yard. Dedicate lanes on 710 for trucking only for now
This has been the only logical solution I’ve come close to hearing. I can’t believe that I don’t have an ounce of faith that anything will be implemented. I have no faith in any of these vapid bags of milk.
There must be space near the old navy base in Long Beach
Privatize all port operations independent of unions and time-barred temporary zoning modifications should be allowed
Natural question is : how did it happen ?
Why did it worked ok for decades and collapsed ? Surely COVID crisis is for something but how exactly ? Is it preventable for future crises ?
what you call a problem is what the central planners call a feature! you just don't get it, this is all part of the plan
My question is, why is this happening now and not before? If the system worked fine for decades and even through the pandemic with less people on staff, why is it now a problem?
Because demand is way up. The ports are, in fact, moving more containers than ever. But even that is not enough for demand.
What’s accounting for the record demand? What changed?
Post-pandemic-peak (it’s not over but we’re past the worst and country’s been reopening) rebound. Lots of delayed purchases, pent up demand, etc. Also some particular supply shortages have some companies reconsidering just-in-time logistics, leading to stockpile-building.
I asked myself this same question but have yet to find an answer.
It's a number of factors working simultaneously, some mentioned here-- though obviously all of it has to do with the pandemic. "Cause" is a tricky subject when you're talking about big systems, but I'd put it there.
This is small potatoes compared to what climate change (and collapse) is gonna do, of course. May as well get ready.
Very complex but here’s some pandemic part:
xtra consumer goods demanded (service demand plummeted)
+
COVID outbreak slowdowns overseas
There's also a massive shortage of OSHA certified warehouse labor and space that would need to be worked into your plan, or the containers just pile up somewhere else.
Get your G-4 to brief you on the assets we have to do this. The Army owns its own railway component, truck transportation groups, Port Ops. Just give @FORSCOM the mission to source - 3 days! Planners put ASBs at every port & execute.
Also politically, this isn't a very compelling tbh. There are a lot of people that dislike big corporations which often manifests in the discussion around executive pay and corporate taxes. Republicans on the other hand would say let the free market sort it out.
Free market? The ports are owned by the government.
Meaning if a company fails, that's creative destruction and the next iteration of that company will have a more robust supply chain. Privately owned ports might be part of the solution.
What a dumb thing to say lmao
The free market *would* sort it out though, these are government owned ports and government zoning seems to be causing the bottle neck?
Also @GavinNewsom can temporarily allow trucks that didn’t meet emissions restrictions to temporarily load at ports. This law significantly reduced trucking fleet that can load up at ports
Who is in charge ultimately?
OR…Hear me Out….we shorten and diversify supply chains…heaven forbid we secure our nation by NOT manufacturing everything in a hostile nation 6000 miles away. You provide short term solution for a structural, geopolitical problem.
This right here is the real answer!
I just finished The Goal by Eliyahu Goldratt. Sounds like you've read it too.
Reroute ships to Oakland? Empty berths when I drove by on Sunday. 3rd largest port on the West Coast—w/ trucks, terminals, 2 railroads, cranes, longshoremen, anchorage space in the Bay...I realize it can’t supplant LA/LB. And the other unclogging steps could work here in Sacto.
Needs a "get shit done" department.
Why can’t many of the ships waiting to unload or coming to LB get re-routed to other ports on the east coast until they catch up?
And btw, excellent thread that journalists seem incapable of communicating to the general public.
Your full shit.
Maybe that’s the plan 🤷🏼♀️
What do you think about using NAS Alameda? (around minute 11:00 in the video)
The Government Has a Plan to Clear the Ports...WE ARE DOOMED | What's Going on With Shipping?
September 17, 2021On this episode of What's Going On With Shipping, Sal Mercogliano - Chair of the Department of History, Criminal Justice and Political Scie...
youtube.com
Generate a Traffic Control Authority to prioritize which ships get unloaded first based on cargo impact to rest of chain. Preference to FIFO but not absolute.
Take the empties to rapidly build affordable housing container homes. Some of them are stunning and go up fast.
How about getting the empties out of the way altogether? Put ‘em on the trains you mentioned, take them up to 100 miles or so and give them to the folks who are making homeless housing units (like this one: afhusa.org/potters-lane-j… )
I have no affiliation with housing groups.
Is there idle capacity at any West Coast container port right now? If so, is it technically feasible to convert a terminal at LA/LB to transshipment and then charter Jones Act vessels to reposition inventory?
But you have to load them onto ships, which takes time. And the queue outside the port's already huge
That has to be done because otherwise the empty containers keep building up and because otherwise imports stop coming (in future once these problems are fixed). If it isn’t done then won’t problems just be queues up for the future ?
Need sensors on all cranes measuring containers moved per hour
Additional ideas from @man_integrated
Today we have seen announced:
- Special truck routes and waivers
- Underutilized land identified around the region to store/manage empty containers
- Biden admin floating using National Guard to help shuttle containers
This was published ten days ago.👇
fortisanalysis.substack.com/p/from-chaos-t…
Cities need to be planned around yard space.
Too late now so they may need to bull dose residential neighborhoods, golf courses, shopping centers, freeway ramps . . .
Can the administration/FMSCA increase the Hours of Service by an hour? Increase empty chassis only rates to go to LA Port? Will that help?
Ban or restrict personal vehicles on the 110 and other nearby freeways so trucks can move in and out of the area faster.
maybe just stop the endless stimulus and put some temporary tariffs on chinese goods
Why do the ships not take more empties? Is it because there are no empties left in the shipyards?
It seems to me that the real bottleneck here is the lack empties flowing back to china?
Agree with your proposal as well as touting as many ships to Florida as possible
Ship out empty containers back to origin. Asia has a huge container shortage.
Dump the containers create artificial reefs
The Port of West Sacramento isn’t an unloading option, but it does have UP/BNSF service. Could be that unclogging with a shuttle between Oakland-West Sac.
Could we stop bringing empty containers to the ports, too?
Deliver or transport them to the inland yard. Unit train chassis back to the port. Make this the ongoing plan until demand for empties matches stockpile.
An alternative might be to leverage Mexico — trucking and storage — in all this using the USMCA trade agreement to bust through all local zoning ordinances and state-level restrictions.
Didn't someone pop up recently with a thread about how a certain drive train joint needed by thousands of US semi trucks is now out of stock worldwide until April 2022? How many trucks are down to await repair of back-ordered parts? Seems important.
Because you're proposing doing things like temporarily overriding zoning regulations, processes that normally run smoothly and safely may become unsafe. You need to augment with other temporary safety measures: more human monitors, more medical staff on-hand, etc.
Is LA/LB switched to a 24/7 schedule? Bc it’s been backed up for awhile. They already do transfer inland (I think maybe out by Ontario) but they’d have to do it much more quickly to make any difference at all.
One of the problems for the railroads is recipients are not able to store and find demurrage cost cheaper than other alternatives, thereby jamming the rail yards in the Midwest and East.
Sell empty containers for tiny houses! I’ve been looking for a few. Make them affordable and for pick up only!
They need the containers back where the imports came from though
I’m sure it was mentioned but didn’t read all the way down the thread but housing would be the most effective use of the empty’s, especially heading into winter.
Prioritize unloading of N units for those who remove N+X units. Make quotas assignable/transferrable by the private sector.
The market will start prioritizing inflows of highest margin units.
Every truck driver out there, including retired truck drivers, should be asked if they want to be short term contracted to drive every truck available that can handle a container.
My sister was a truck driver. She's 64 years old but I guarantee she can drive for 120 days.
There will be a massive spike in labor demand if things start moving in the ports. Give immigrating people a path to citizenship for working in high-demand jobs. The US needs warehouse, logistics, tech labor. We're facing population & tax revenue decline.
Tow trucks can move containers.
Funny, I keep saying exactly this about climate change solutions.
If you gave me a truck & chassis w/ no logs. I’m all in. Got the crew and connection from LA to DFW.
Ideas are great BUT if there is no executioner then it’s all talk.?
, do you know any website or app which would enable private owners to donate or rent their land as temporary container yards?
I'm a software architect and happy to volunteer coding and engineering leadership time to make this happen: DM me if you want to collaborate!
take like 60,000 of the containers and convert them into housing for all the unhoused people in LA.
Can some of the ships be sent to other ports?
Trump would have this done two months ago.
Violate the Jones Act? Now that's just crazy talk.
Just what I was thinking. US flag vessels to perform cabotage service isn't possible, as they're deployed in servicing their own markets already. There's not really excess capacity, and Flexport should have that capacity data, so Ryan should know that already.
Yeah...he lost me with the barges. Like what? I think a lot of this is performative for folks without deep logistics backgrounds. Also, the military chassis? I mean what?
Containers on barges is not a new concept. Most east coast ports have container on barge services. It can provide significant capacity relief.
You can do a lot with deck barges. A couple afternoons of welding down deck sockets and double lashing padeyes and you're in business so long as the underdeck structure is up to the task. AML, Samson, Sause Bros, and many others have been running container barge services for ages
OK, sure, but they generally only take standard sizes, none or limited haz and no OOG. They can move some volume but when you are talking about tens of thousands of containers it's a lot of effort to make minimum impact.
AML runs cars and haz and oversize all year long to SE Alaska on deck barges. They put the OOG on top. As for non standard sizes, it's steel, transportation's infinitely-manipulable wonder material. Need 48s & 53s? Weld down more sockets. Don't even have to burn the old ones off.
Added bonus, you don't need a container terminal. A big ass forklift and a nice ramp will do. That's how most of SE Alaska and most HI containerized barge traffic functions.
Conveniently a lot of bulk/general cargo terminals have on dock rail.
Well color me surprised. Granted it's been a long time, long time since I did this, probably 2005. It was Osprey moving resin for Huntsman. My 1-2 haz cans a week were loathed by everyone, especially the planners.
Well and if you don't get down into the weeds of serving outports at small volumes you never see all these semi-niche equipment setups in action.
And for sure some haz loads are a much bigger pain than others, resins included!
Probably some things the barge lines won't carry.
All true; then even if you issue Jones Act waivers (not a stretch), have you tried to charter feeder containerships lately?
Repeal the Jones Act and the will be a silver lining to this mess!
Ideally the Jones Act should be suspended temporarily. Not sure how it would work, if an execute order would be able to do that. If the law is keeping a problem from being solved, the law is wrong - and causing billions of dollars in losses.
Ban public freeway transport from 11pm-5am and make all the truckers drive during the night only. Clear roads, faster transport.
Just a thought.
In southern CA where the highways are always busy?
100%. I've spent over 3 hours one way on the freeway.
Do we have that many? Isn't it a Jones act thing?
Like a reverse Operation Dynamo at Dunkirk.
I remember hearing that the shipping terminals in Portland were getting increased traffic for the first time in a while recently. Are other ports on the West Coast starting to pick up the slack, and if so just how much can they move?
Probably would have happened anyway with a surging economy so i wouldn't necessarily chalk it up to LA problems. Most of Portland's yards aren't container terminals so maybe not that relevant anyways. T-6 would fill up quick if it got overflow POLA and POLB traffic.
has excess capacity, compared to @portoflongbeach, rerouting anchored vessels would provide another solution.
This should be near the top of the list! Nobody is discussing American’s Marine Highways! Short Sea Shipping; been on the books for at least 30 years……… it doesn’t sit well with other supply chain players.
Do you expect them to lift the Jones Act? The ability to move containers out of Long Beach to smaller ports would be quick and a huge first step to solving the problem.
You can get a Jones Act waiver...
Dunkirk that shit.
Don't know if breakbulking or barge transferring the cargo would really help the congestion that much. Only area i could think of would be Puget Sound where there's an extensive tug and barge fleet with appropriate aprons. LA tug fleet appropriation might kill Hawaii shipng also.
Barges need time to be equipped for lashing containers anyway. If the destination has a container crane for offloading, the ship can just divert.
How far away from the original port?
lol good luck with this part of your plan ..
Why not the ships themselves? How do you think the FAA manages airport congestion: Landing slots (a no brainer). All the other major W Coast ports have considerable under utilized capacity and can handle most of the bigger ships. Newest Tacoma cranes can take the largest ships:
Not practical; just send the ships to the other ports. Not a lot of barges are equipped to carry containers and multiple loading/unloadings would be slow. There are some in the PNW, however.
The ships have cargo destined for the LA SoCal area. Or is break bulked at near dock facilities.
How does this cargo get processed by diverting?
#1: cargo doesn't get processed by anybody until the ship docks (2-3 wks after arrival). Not all that much cargo get break bulked (yes, some does). #2: Much less than half of the containers are for CA (look at the rail traffic stats sometime). #3: No wait in Oakland.
I work for the railroad. I know the dynamics.
If “much less than half” of the cargo goes to SoCal, how does, say, 15% of the LA/LB port volume make its way from Oakland to the LA Basin when trucks can’t even get the traffic handled locally?
What I can find out is that btw 30-40% of container cargo is CA destined; the rest is forwarded E, almost all by rail either via the Transcon(BNSF) or the Sunset/GoldenState(UP) routes. Below is the AAR weekly car loading report; over ½ of the intermodal is UP or BNSF(mostly).
Also what I hear is only 5-10% of the boxes are repackaged.
Furthermore, any box offloaded in Oakland could be in the LA Basin in 12-24 hrs road or rail. [See my reply to Muni Perez] That sure beats sitting outside the breakwater for a couple of weeks.
Like I said in one of my comments, most of those goodies in the boxes are not for Californians.
BTW: Oak>LA ~450 mi; driven it many times.
Working for what RR; doing what? where?
Even if the cargo is headed towards socal area, wouldn’t it be better to move it somewhere else and then haul it by truck back? It would just sit on the ship instead and cause a lot more problems.
If the problem is local truck capacity in the port/LA area, hauling it 100-200 miles to long haul truck it back is not a solution.
Still doesn’t solve or address the break bulk issue.
You are right on. Oakland is 10-12 hrs from the LA basin via I5. That's one of my points, but the other is that for east bound containers, it would add a day at the most via BNSF over Tehachapi Pass to KC, Memphis, or Chi, the fastest route.
Who is handling the Oakland discharge to the LA Basin in your scenario? Truck or train?
Ever been to Oakland? 12-15 container berths (red lines) Lots of tracks. Not many ships today: 2 yellow dots are container ships; 3rd is a bulker. Port of Oakland is like LB or LA but not as large …or busy. Some LB/LA ships stop there too and/or Seattle. Truck access is decent.
Try this link: railwayage.com/intermodal/sup…
It should be most enlightening.
Supply Chains: Broken Beyond Repair? - Railway Age
Never before in our recent memory has so much focus been put on “supply chains.” The popular press has added the term to the language of the everyday person. We hear things like: “I went to the store today and the items I wanted were out of stock. Must be a supply chain problem.” Railroads are part of the supply chain, but few people realize or understand it.
railwayage.com
Unless something changed recently Oakland is also backed up. I think every west coast container port is.
Allow foreign ships to operate between US ports.
Jones Act violation
Why not sail to oakland… no bottleneck?!?
How about just melt the containers down as scrap metal and recycle the materials to Asia for the production of new containers?
Boston and Jersey can't get enough containers. Exports in the northeast are backed up by two weeks. Send ships and/or containers to the other ports.
OK.
How will it affect the total available storage space?
Will it allow things to run again for the foreseeable time or will it just be temporary relief?
If so, what when it's blocked again?
Hopefully this is enough to give a temporary air blow to desaturate port operations without blocking the next bottleneck.
If not, we might go all-in, deactivate part or all Terminal Operating System automation and setting up special teams in place to clog off ports.
You really think deactivating the automation will solve it? I think it might make matters worse.
Certainly not all of it, all "helpers" like space allocation, stacking optimization should stay, but there might be some parts which are not optimizing only for flow due to financial or commercial concerns.
In the same area, I would have a look on the Customs authorities situation.
I hope they are in full hands/special procedures mode, but the pandemic showed us that sometimes a part of the system stays in normal mode even under a full crisis.
The "chassis cannot unload because yard is full" ; "chassis cannot load from full yard because already loaded" definitely looks like a good old business rules deadlock to me...
Another possible counter-productive optimization could be "maximize storage utilization"...
And the associated radical solution would be : split the yard in two one-way virtual yards.
Great thread, but you buried the lede. Most important part by far are the 4 points at the end
"Force" the railroads? How does that work?
Like this, when Wilson took over the railroads? constitutioncenter.org/blog/on-this-d….
On this day, Woodrow Wilson seizes the nation’s railroads
One of the broadest acts of presidential power happened on this day in 1917, when President Woodrow Wilson issued an order for the federal government to nationalize the entire railroad system during World War I.
constitutioncenter.org
If trucks are stuck waiting for loads, possible solution: offload containers to an open field to be picked up there
Seems like paying would be better than forcing. This is the only one of your points that strikes me as needing amendment.
Small point of contention. One could simply hire the trains as opposed to forcing them.
This would probably have an added benefit of relieving local port area traffic congestion due to the immense truck traffic around them.
Savannah has inland ports that rail containers to two sites past Atlanta. Alteady using the DOD staging docks normal used for shipping out USNS cargo. Problem there is clients warehouses are full and they can’t receive more goods.
This assumes the roads to this magical huge plot of land in the most expensive real estate market in the union can accommodate all of these trucks
may have to ruin the roads - short term
Totally. Not worried about ruining them. More worried about whether uoud create another bottleneck because the interchange can’t handle the volume
They are already ruined. CA-60, I-10, I-15 pavement turns to trash every few years.
Take them to the desert. Out by four corners. 395
"Sounds like communism." 😄
Why exactly should railroads help their (less efficient? less ecological?) competition?
Also, how does this tie into, e.g. this:
You're gonna pay market rate for the extra 4 containers worth of vertical air space, right?😂
Incredible. One of the most crucial links in the supply chain, has been for years, built on the premise that some workers would provide labor for free. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3 or 4 shuttle points on a 100 mile span to scale trucks unloading and storage easier
You mean leverage Biden's connection to railroad? There is so much spare railyard space in this country. Trust me I've lived on a train!
Hyperlink was supposed to start off hauling containers out of Long Beach to Niland where there's plenty of space.
That might take 15 years.
yeah my gut reaction after also being in space as TechStars logistics alum was they’ve completely messed up standard drayage best practices - w/o more data the why is hard tho and concur on those suggested fixes
Force? This isn't a dictatorship. If it's profitable they'll do it on their own. You can propose all of these same ideas without being a dictator and the companies can choose to freely go along with him because it's helpful to be economy and profitable
i certainly hope massive shortages don't turn out to be highly profitable for a small number of people who also happen to be making decisions on what to do about the shortages
So how does that play out? Don't the train and trucking companies make more money the more they move?
make money from whom?
? From their customers
but their customers can make much higher margins selling current stock at shortage prices, why would they pay the premium to increase the flow of goods (which could also benefit their competitors)
Is this 1500 mile journey through Dallas a recent development? Why does this longer route command a lower rate? Is there a good write up anywhere on giving context around this?
Yes we have an executive function as a constitutional republic that has powers they can invoke to force citizens to take actions in times of national security crisis
Everything can be justified as a national crisis.
The Texas railroad crews probably aren't going to be qualified on the California railroads, so that probably wouldn't do much to add California RR capacity, meanwhile lots of truckers who might be doing short haul in CA now might find switching to CA→TX more lucrative…
Like, I think forcing container owners to treat each other's containers as fungible would be easier and work better than the railroad short haul reconfiguration being proposed.
Also containers are not fungible between carriers, so the truckers have to drop their empty off at the right terminal. This is causing empty containers to pile up. This one trucking partner alone has 450 containers sitting on chassis right now (as of 10/21) at his yards.
That said, keeping the containers that were already planning to go by rail going by rail in the exact same way as previously planned, while also looking at moving some additional containers by rail, would probably be a great idea.
This is where we need the hyperloop. @elonmusk we need your help!
Where possible, direct discharge to unit shuttle trains moving to temporary inland ports would help. Long term, there should also be more direct discharge to shuttle trains going to purpose built inland ports designed for fully wheeled operation rather than stacking boxes.
California needs to partner with the railroads and trucking on a high desert transportation hub served by a state owned rail system. This is where that high speed rail money should have been spent. California has fallen…asleep. Bunch of stoners.
Wanted to get clever hire a bunch of guys with step decks with container locks to take the empties from where they are stranded to these new marshalling yards.
Theoretically you could run the train back with empties when it fit in the destowing/restowing cadence and put them straight off the train onto the ship. That can get them headed back without taking up real estate on the port.
Force the railroads? I've worked with CSX, nobody forces them to do anything.
"Force"? How would you prevent back up at your new rail yard? (and sorry Dallas, no more rail service for you according to this plan). In Chaos to Complicated the trucker/shuttle keeps containers moving between importers/yard/terminals. fortisanalysis.substack.com/p/from-chaos-t…
There is already a lot of problems getting the railroads to be doing what they should be doing and it is about to "hit the fan" from the STB. However, they really are not the problem, here. Their problem is getting loaded and unloaded at the ports. They do have other problems.
That’s what I was thinking. get the containers off the chassis and put on rail.
To be honest sir, how you are the CEO of a logistics company baffles the mind
Overwhelm the bottleneck shows a complete disregard for the bottleneck itself, you should pay me a small fortune to run this company you are about to crash
You could even federate this step - multiple of these are possible. Spokes on the ways to SF, SD, Dallas, Chicago, etc.
Who is handling this logistics? Tracking moving containers between LA/LB and new destinations seems impossible without new IT/logistics solution.
One suggestion, new tech for laying concrete unitized rail means you could build temporary spirrs off the main lines that lead east out of LA. Don't bottleneck to a new yard. Same idea as your sharing, have the national guard build 100 smaller rail yard spirrs 1 of 2
Place these new spirrs outside of the 100 top major transshipment intersections going east out of LA. That way long haul truckers, which are also seeing a labor shortage, get swapped for day cabs that can complete last mile to destinations in less than 12 hours.
You have no idea what you’re asking the railroads to do, and the ripple effect it will have on the flow of containers in the ports.
Just…stop your ignorance.
Force? Why not cover the cost under the trillions in "infrastructure" spending?
Railroads are going to slow down drastically when the vaccine mandate goes into effect. The what?
How many cranes needed at this remote yard…or are they on chassis’s, ready to roll?
Brilliant. Create a staging out in the desert next to the train tracks. So much vacant land out there.
Great thread and the trains are a great and a much faster fix than the long term thought of a tunnel out of LA you shared on @OddLots1
RE Railroads: This is much harder than it seems. Most of the railroads are also stuck with thousands of intermodal platforms that have loaded containers they can’t unload, or empty containers they can’t reposition.
Trains are stacked up outside intermodal terminals. UP has miles of them outside chicago. There are no ways to get them off trains and it snarls the system even further.
If we need to get containers off trains, we need to get to them and unload. The trip to Dallas isn’t the issue, instead we need to focus on shifting empty platforms to where they’re needed.
RRs don’t have the manpower to pull this off. They cut too deep, too quick 4 years ago for the sake of investors and are paying for it now.
This is already being done at the Port of Savannah from what I’ve read. But apparently they can’t find enough crane operators.
Force the railroads?
Camp Pendleton has plenty of space
The airport!
Sounds a lot like the TDC yard (Theater Distribution Center) I recommended the other day. Victorville, CA's SCLA airfield might be perfect for that if they have cleared off the commercial jets that were in storage or use the rail head in Barstow.
*ponders Eagle Mountain to store a mountain of containers for Nolan's sequel to Tenet*
This is potentially a no-shit genius idea.
Yeah wasn’t this the post-BRAC plan for Victorville all along?
I was thinking on this type of idea. Just haul thousands of empties out and store them in the desert somewhere until you clear the bottleneck.
Neighbor has acres of large empty unpaved lots all over Long Beach / Los Angeles metro.
If @POTUS follows Ryan's plan, @neighborstorage will provide emergency yard space for containers and foot the bill.
Let's solve this!
Maybe use the Marine Logistics Base at Barstow for this?
Seal Beach, CA has this.
wiki says it’s 8 square miles, borders the 405. they removed rail infrastructure 10 years ago.
Naval Weapons Station Seal Beach - Wikipedia
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Plenty of space in Lancaster/Palmdale to store containers.
No freeway access. You'd make a new traffic jam.
The containers need to get back to where they came from… Or you run out of containers to fill in China… Get a slinky at either end…
If there's excess capacity in cranes right now, maybe there's also idle ship capacity, and crowded yards could put some back on floating yards to make room?
also avoids having a glut of empty containers stacked everywhere that no one can get rid of while at the other hand, companies are paying record amounts to find one.
One wonders how many empty containers could be stored on the old runways at the former El Toro Marine Corps Air Station in Irvine?
None. There are houses there now. Even abandoned Rialto Airport has Distribution Centers on the property.
Huh. I thought that the houses were on the site, but the runways were still more-or-less intact (mostly because digging up a runway is difficult and expensive!)
It's looking pretty domesticated these days:
Flyover Video
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cityofirvine.org
I wondered what I was thinking.... Oh, yeah, those two 10,000ft runways next to the park...
I like your thinking, that is where my mind went, looking for dead airports in the area. Runways have the best potential to be converted to trans runs, but, I think those shots are old, I looked at the same thing. Been a while since I have gone out there.
pretty sure rialto was sold expressly for that purpose of developing into warehouses...
How feasible is this step?
look into Iron Mountain ( a secret shame boondoggle) (hush hush)
you mean...Eagle Mountain?
Yes... autofill strikes again.
The rails already have a huge yard at Colton...
The Feds own Seal Beach Naval Weapons Station, and Joint Base Los Al - but they a surrounded by the Burbs...
BLM owns a lot of land in the High Desert (as does Military), but that is further inland than key North South Junctions...
The yard in Colton is the one you want... 10, 60, (2)15, are all right there..
there's already a bnsf intermodal yard in san bernardino & up JUST started ops at one in fontana a few months ago. but if the issue is a lack of trailers, then just leave the empty containers on the train cars in the yard in colton.
Marine Corp Logistics Base Barstow comes to mind
The Marine Corps Logistics Base in Yermo would work.
Well over 100 miles from LA
Sure by 40 miles or so, but has the capacity and infrastructure to support thousands of containers without disrupting any neighborhoods and or the environment.
That's literally the only option besides leasing a big ass piece of land near Victorville. I like how this guy came up with the genius solution without actually thinking if it's possible.
You mean the US doesn't have an inland container depot?
I’m amazed that rail is not more I integrated into the logistics of these ports. Train can more efficiently move large numbers of containers to other areas than trucks.
There's quite a bit of on-dock rail but inertia and momentum make them a long-distance mode.
It's plausible they could clear the lock with a couple trains of empties to Dallas. I'm skeptical just 100mi would work.
they potentially don't even HAVE to unload the empties off the trains, just stick them on a siding somewhere for a few weeks. also helps sidestep potential zoning issues to just leave them on rail cars...
Camp Pendleton!
anaheim stadium
Make them tiny houses for the homeless.
Perhaps we should dump them on Fontana speedway.
Does it even need rail (though that's obviously a good thing)? If the problem is "too many trucks tied up with empty containers they can't offload", then anywhere nearby that's got a crane and dirt can fix that bottleneck. Rent a chunk of Disneyland parking lot for the winter.
Dodgers stadium too
Sadly, the Dodgers are still using their stadium and the SF Giants aren't :-) but the season's almost over.
agreed, parking lot at disneyland would be an excellent spot for this. also all the parking lots at sports stadiums in the la-oc area, esp those which are served by transit.
What about the old MCAS El Toro or the Helicopter base at Irvine?
Oops - helicopter base in Tustin
*laughs and points at Dodger Stadium*
They've got land, go for it
Maybe you can use this to identify some potential locations twitter.com/USACEHQ/status…
Did you know the Formerly Used Defense Sites (FUDS) Geographic Information System (GIS) provides info, general locations of FUDS properties across the U.S? Check it out: go.usa.gov/xnXQz
Major staging point inland. March field national reserve air museum riverside, CA. 77 miles from la ports. Adjacent to bnsf rail line, connects to UP rail lines exiting LA ports, prior to rail line divisions going north/east.
march isn't close to being "adjacent" the bnsf mainline, especially since there's nowhere to actually unload said containers until san bernardino...
Los Alamitos Army Airfield - 14 miles from the Port of LB and 1300 acres per Wikipedia.
Alternatively: run the empties out to the inland port(s) on rail, freeing space to receive new empties, freeing chassis for inbound cargo, clearing space in the terminals...
Filling truck yards with empties and splitting the chassis pool doesn't sound wise.
What is an inland port? (I've never heard that term before!)
a place intended to operate as a port for legal & somewhat operational purposes while not actually being a port on the water
Due north of Long Beach, the Union Pacific rail lines serve as the western border to Palmdale Regional Airport, where there's a LOT of empty space and companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrup Grumman to potentially help.
Where is that? Camp Pendelton?
might want to check w those communities first, mate
Or prob a lot less labor intensive and more cost effective to start shipping back containers empty until the trade imbalance eases.
If only there were a space in Utah to store that many containers.
This is the big one.
Might I suggest Camp Pendleton? It is roughly 65 miles from Long Beach and has rail running right through it.
Unless I'm misreading, doesn't seem like you'd need rail, just nearby land to store containers like sea of parking at former San Diego Chargers stadium. Only 150ac, but proximity to SD Port to help reallocate containers on small barges & presumably excess military manpower
How about recycle a certain % of the containers?
Moving imports out there doesn’t make a ton of sense. It kills chassis velocity and driver productivity.
I nominate Fort Irwin. Huge open training area 2/3 of the way from LA to Vegas. On rail. Federal land.
It’s a little bit out of your radius, but I nominate Barstow.
Maybe Camp Pendleton?
They ought to be using the great big parking lots all over the place - you don't need to go 100 miles away. As far as I know, Anaheim/Fullerton/etc. has all kinds of rail access. Use Disney's Cast Member parking lots, the Angels stadium parking lots, etc.
Las Vegas!
I’ll take a dozen if 166 miles isn’t too far.
Huh…like MiraMar base in San Diego?
Agreed!
A new container yard for sure.
We also need a processing area where inspectors can send un-seaworthy containers to another yard to get them out of the bottleneck. They will need maintenance, but they don't need to take up valuable space from serviceable containers.
Isn't there a naval airport defunct and near by that can be used temporarily?
If what I've read on FB/Twitter is true, the new CA laws regarding truckers has also impacted shipping.
A lot of desert out there. Possibly Victorville (SCLA) or Barstow? Any decommissioned military base not limited to 100 mi radius?
As a NG soldier, I can tell you this won't happen. It would take longer to mobilize the NG than you believe.
This is a bad idea.
We have an Army Active Duty Transportation Corps that can provide thousands of trucking assets. Let them loose! @SecDef @SecArmy @ArmyChiefStaff WHERE IS ARMY G-4??????????
“Every”??? This would great risk in disaster response and readiness?
I thought the military ran a different size kingpin than civvy iron.
Good idea! ...but mobilize overall DoD resources' they will mobilize, what NG units they need. Again this is not a CA problem.
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Let’s not go overboard.
Just need to reach out to @GeneralBaldwin to see if this component of your list is even remotely feasible in any capacity.
If they can help, they will.
calguard.ca.gov/otag/
How many do the national guard / military own, and are they even the right type that's needed? Or would it just add further to the congestion?
I was in supply and logistics for over 20 years. I managed container yards with a total of 15,000 containers.
I'm so damn excited reading this thread!!!
Thank you! I've been saying this for weeks! Why aren't the national guard involved? This is a national crisis.
#2 was my solution. Store empty containers on federal property
Sorry wrong answer. Perverse incentives for the Ports of LB & LA. because ironically they collect rent on the stored containers from the terminal operators. We are from the government and we are here to help (ourselves).
Don’t know if the Fed Govt has constitutional authority to supercede local zoning (especially via Exec. Order).
This is an over simplification, it is part of the solution however most yards lack the equipment to stack more than 5 high and there are safety reasons they can’t stack more than 3 at some yards that should be over looked.
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Can't these containers be repurposed for affordable housing to ease the housing price pressure?
Is that actually something that can be done by EO?
Yes. If the President declares something a national security issue, local zoning codes are never an impediment (city planning commissions can’t tell the Air Force that its airbase doesn’t meet code)
That's awesome. I had no idea, but it makes sense. Thanks.
The federal govt does indeed have power over zoning in Long Beach (and every other city). That’s actually one of the bees in my bonnet. Unlike with residential housing, the President wouldn’t need more authority from Congress for a national security issue involving the ports.
Again, if state police power overrides Congress’s interstate commerce power then the Fair Housing Act is unconstitutional. If it’s not unconstitutional then there’s no question, as Justice Kennedy noted, Congress has the power to invalidate local zoning. scholar.google.com/scholar_case?c…
Every judge, even California municipal judges, is quite familiar with the Supremacy Clause.
Well, without even looking at Tsy’s power to regulate imports, or HHS’s power to regulate ports of entry (we are in the middle of a pandemic after all) or the DoD’s Defense Production Act power over, well, everything, I reckon the Homeland Security Act should do the trick.
If Congress uses Commerce Power to give officials the responsibility to coordinate transportation, that’s a grant a power. It’s six of one, half a dozen of the other to me but you’d want CA & WH EOs in sync to thwart the litigious in CA courts & states righters in Fed courts.🙂
Would it be feasible to Newsom to use State EOs to fill gaps where federal EOs don’t reach? Is there any political reason he wouldn’t/shouldn’t coordinate with the feds in this matter?
I’m not a California lawyer but in general a governor’s powers when he declares a state of emergency are broad as a barn. And yes even if they weren’t of the same party, it’d make sense for President & Governor to issue coordinating EOs.
Clearly a national/federal issue. Yes governors should support it. There are some measures that can ease the problem, but it is deeply structural and will take some time to unwind and restructure. Virtually all the shipping companies are foreign and many control port resources.
I read that stacking them higher leads to another problem, it's harder to get the ones at the bottom of the stack.
Also, an interview with manager of Savannah container port indicated they are working on expanding terminal storage there. Big priority. Not sure about elsewhere.
I was just thinking that 1 high must be best for maximum speed, given space. You never have to shift a container to get a container. With this proposed 6 high, you have only 1/6 chance to have the right container on top (for random access), and of course 5 to shift in bad luck.
Now, with optimal knowledge and preplanning you might always have the right container on top, but that seems unlikely in a FIFO material flow.
You should really consider reading the thread before making a fool out of yourself.
The stacks of 6 are for EMPTY containers that are currently sitting 1 high ON the truck chassis in truckers' yards.
Who owns empties? Is one as good as another?
Again read the fucking thread, man.
The bottleneck isn't in organizing the empties. They could sit there for weeks or months and it wouldn't matter.
There's nowhere for the empties to go until they can get on top of getting the full containers OUT of the port, w chassis.
To me this is just another example of Twitter "I saw a thing, and now I think it's so easy." A ton of people sign on without thinking it through. For instance, is this your yard equipment? How do you magically go six high by executive order?
Those machines can lift fully loaded containers. Stack one empty on top of another, then lift the bottom container in that stack and put it on top of another container and now you’re 3 high. Hell they can probably lift two stacked containers onto two more stacked for 4-high.
Huh? It attaches at the top. This is what I mean about Twitter and blithely naming solutions. You are clearly making it up as you go along.
Any other really clever rejoinders about how I’m just a Twitter asshole who just thinks it’s easy?
There are no links between those. The bottom one is on the ground. So that is a picture of him placing the top one.
Yes and it’s 5 high. What’s your point? You claimed top lift equipment would be a bottleneck and I very simply proved that to be incorrect. Now you’re just trying to save face.
You aren't making sense. The original article said that the yard was built for 2 high. If they have a 2 high yard they probably have pretty close to 2 high equipment. Yes they could buy whole new stuff, but that is for the complication and not 100 days.
2 high is because that’s the local code, not because that’s the maximum they can lift. A loaded container can be up to 44k lbs, that’s equivalent to 8 empty containers.
Have you never seen a forklift be used?
You realize heavy lift equipment can also be rented right?
It’s not just “oop no other choice but to spend a quarter mil on new machines”.
Seriously?
Again we’re talking about empty containers. You realize they’re talking about full containers in that article, right?
I’m from the Port of Long Beach. Thanks for bringing this to our attention. Are you available to discuss your ideas on optimal knowledge and preplanning?
I'm happy to hear from you. I've done similar work, in medical scheduling. I'd be interested to hear from you what fraction of throughput goes "in sequence" and what fraction is "special" (either priority or missed).
In a crisis when you need to get the cranes moving, that is not remotely a primary concern. Get them off the terminals and sort the rest later
Very glib. Zero tradeoffs. Perfect for Twitter.
in extreme situations [1] extreme tradeoffs are worth it.
In operations when a bottleneck appears somewhere that you didn't design for it to appear, you must OVERWHELM THE BOTTLENECK!
"tradeoffs are worth it" is the very definition of an empty statement.
Fwiw, if you've never read this on constraints, it's a good start.
"The Goal (novel) - Wikipedia"
The Goal (novel) - Wikipedia
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Premature optimization right there, shifting 5 objects in a worst case is better than the current situation of stand still
The current situation is not standstill. And if you were serious you'd have Models for throughput with various changes from status quo, and times to implement.
The proposal is to stack empty containers 6 feet high at truck yards not at the ports. So you won't have the problem of trying to find the right container.
In the truck yard, would there be issues with container ownership, stack load, or FIFO?
Exactly, it's about the biggest bottleneck.
Why not permanently override the rules? They seem idiotic.
Yeah, screw the poverty level families that live near the container yards. More containers=more pollution, but hey we need our trinkets.
You are right that this is a national problem, with all is moving parts, is soluble only by the federal government. It is a stuctural problem that has evolved over the last 20-40 years. No quick solution really. One would be to federally limit the number of ships at a given port.
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Sorry Charlie, national interest trumps California. Newsom would certainly cooperate (he's a good guy, & he's smart) and might be able to move quicker. The goodies stashed on those ship are not all for Californians. Eventually there will be a limit on what ships can call where.
If LA doesn’t let them, why don’t they bring them to the neighboring counties? Kern County for example is just a 2-3 hour drive, endless amounts of open land. I’m sure it would be easy to find a land owners that would be happy to rent space out
Read the fucking thread man, there's no chassis available for that easy breezy 2-3 hour drive.
The trucking partner he cites has 450 chassis with containers on them.
Once you find empty land to put the containers, you need equipment to get the empties off and - here's the nut - do it cheaply enough that you don't lose money on veery load.
Yeah, that is an excellent point 👍🏼
Maybe you missed this part?
There are chassis *with* empties that need to be removed. Once you remove the empties you have more available chassis to go to the port
With the chassis all tied up storing empties that can't be returned to the port, there are no chassis available to pick up containers at the port.
Maybe YOU Missed this part: twitter.com/typesfast/stat…
Also containers are not fungible between carriers, so the truckers have to drop their empty off at the right terminal. This is causing empty containers to pile up. This one trucking partner alone has 450 containers sitting on chassis right now (as of 10/21) at his yards.
Yeah, to me this is the crux of the problem. It says the containers are not fungible (i.e. interchangeable) between carriers but why is that? Are they that different between carriers that they can't be interchanged at all?
And even if they are, given the circumstances, wouldn't it eventually make sense just to find somewhere to offload empties and come for them later? Doesn't the cost of thousands of containers sitting on boats eventually outweigh the extra cost of this?
I'm not entirely sure why they aren't fungible between carriers, however, there are workarounds like the one suggested in the thread. Were Long Beach to allow these yards to stack the empties 5-6 high the trucks could fill up again. There are workarounds if municipalities allow
And putting the empties in a fucking hay pasture 3 hours away is a really dumb solution. Congrats on that.
Devils advocate…as BCO I don’t want my containers in another county. I specifically shipped material to Long Beach to supply my customers in the area. Who is going to pay for extra freight back to LA/LGB area?
Believe me, SoCal is NOT the recipient of all these goods. Most head east somewhere or north even. SWpend a day in Cajon Pass and watch what goes by. [I prefer Essex MT myself; it's prettier.]
The solution to everything is just YIMBY.
Ah, so is this why Newark is nowhere near as backed up as the Port of Los Angeles? @2AvSagas @mnolangray @AaronGuhreen @rasjbaraka
(Photo I took on October 3 from the Bayonne Bridge)
Not true. A lot of it goes through the Panama Canal. LB/LA was the most efficient port for eastern transshipment, a concentration of the major shipping companies, competing, setup longterm contracts and resources there. Like too many people trying to go through the same door.
Newark is 24/7 port. As are most ports on the East coast. Port Manager of Long Beach port was interviewed last week saying they weren't 24/7 because non-day port workers would get time and a half pay. They've now decided to extend hours.
Excellent. If they can be stored a few months and retrieval can be later, is stability in earthquake areas a concern? If stability is a concern, would stacking them interlocking help? At 40’ x 8’ seems like perpendicular layers of five containers would work.
forgive me if this is a dumb question. Why was the limit created in the first place? Might containers pose a safety risk (wind, etc) if stacked 6 high?
They can be stacked 6 high on the ships on rough seas. I think it's OK?
My suspicion is it's some arbitrary "quality-of-life" reason. Like how in LA you can't have live music visible from the street because it falls under the same regulation as strip clubs.
On ships they're confined in channels, though. I'm not sure what happens to a six-high freestanding stack in an earthquake.
The port in my hometown stacks containers at least 5 high and have for decades, it’s very likely it’s a quality of life regulation, not to do with safety.
The port can stack higher it’s not the port it’s the yards
Which would imply it’s an aesthetic policy decision not a safety one no?
Earthquake zones.
Channels guide below deck & 20 ft containers require twist locks or shoes to secure them. Above deck every container above a 2nd height gets twist locks & they are lashed between bays. They are secured to the ship. In a yard, empties topple but with careful this could help.
If X container is below Y container, but X container has to go now and Y container is going tomorrow, then you have to spend crane time to move Y to get X, then move Y back. A 2-stack takes 3x as long as a 1-stack.
Now do the math on a 6 stack. ABCDEF are stacked, you need A...
I’m impressed by how well you explained that in a single tweet. That makes logistical sense, but, I doubt the zoning rules actually care about crane performance..?
the secret is that the zoning rules don't really matter, except in terms of maximum capacity. in a perfect world containers leave the yard as quickly as they enter, and you only need a bit room to work with; the issue is that containers aren't leaving. stacking them won't help!
the exception is in this extremely narrow situation, where storage has gotten so overfull that trucks are being used as storage. but a better solution than stacking is to put the containers somewhere else - a train to the mojave desert? plenty of space out there for containers
Yes, Tower of Hanoi applies, but this question is in regards to empty containers at truck yards needing stacking to free up container hauling trailers . We need to put the empties somewhere so we can move the full containers out of the ports.
I suspect the truck yards are smart enough to stack empties from a given company together. But it may not be possible even if the zoning restriction were eased, due to the equipment needed to get that 6th container 40 feet in the air.
There's no easily enforceable way to make sure empties only get stacked on empties. What's going to happen is empties are going to wind up on top of fulls. Suddenly we have to move four empties to get to one full and crane times explode.
It is clearly a nimby issue, but there are entirely safe (as well as unsafe) ways to store/stack containers.
Container stacks are prone to getting blown over under strong wind conditions and pose a safety risk to workers (and can damage the containers). You can stack them that high but if strong winds are forecast you want to mitigate that risk by having lower stacks
Is that safe? Presumably there is a reason for the limit of 2?
It looks ugly.
Lol no, it's not safe. The city prohibits the practice for yards which aren't engineered for it because the stacks can topple. Dominos with 40' containers.
But it's a silly suggestion because nobody outside the ports has the equipment to do it anyway.
Let's stacks steel boxes 50' high on parking lots. I'm sure the engineering is fine. Highly-skilled experts need specialized equipment but look what I found in the garage! 😄
Big difference though if it's restricted to emptys (~9k lbs each) vs loads (up to 80k lbs). If the lot is engineered for two high live loads they should be able to go six high with empties no problem.
Corner casting dents in the pavement are just part of the yard aesthetic.
Looks like we're going to find out which lots we're engineered to stack live loads. 😄 LBC's new rules will probably be fine.
I'm actually excited to see how they're going to stack them without RTCs.
You can stack empties with a big forklift. Fork pockets are usually labeled for empty use only
One thing I wonder about is winds. On the ships we lash 'em or have twist locks on the upper tiers. In terminals the stacks are huge. But what about tall narrow stacks in parking lots?
RTGs aren't common in truck yards, and you can't exactly pop down to Home Depot to pick one up. Maybe they'll use construction cranes? Or borrow from terminals? I dunno. It's a funny idea.
It's also a very bad suggestion because it will set a precedent, and you can guess what sort of zoning restrictions will be overridden by executive order next. I trust @typesfast didn't think "don't let a good crisis go to waste", but less scrupulous will be happy to crisis-milk.
This issue is a red herring. Not nearly the biggest.
The question is - how do you get the attention of the Biden admin so that they actually go through with something like this.
Transportation Secretary is on daddy duties at home. Surely you don’t think this crisis is more important than diaper changes? Where is your humanity?
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The thing you have to ask yourself is why an executive order is even necessary? Answer? The local folks don’t want to take the local heat for going six high which would be unsightly for a while. So they wait for an executive order so the heat will go to no one in the state. 🤷🏼♂️
Which is a lack of leadership on their part.
Is the limit in place because it’s unsightly or because it’s dangerous?
Take the heat? Unsightly? I don’t think you know the nature of the operations. This is a good day over there:
Breaking: container falls off an 18 wheeler and crushes a parked car. No injuries. It’s happening now in #Wilmington where residents are sick & tired of the truck congestion in their neighborhoods near the ports @CBSLA #cbsla @PortofLA @portoflongbeach
This makes too much sense to do Ryan hence I doubt they will do it! 🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️
Given the law is 2-high, how many yards would have equipment and processes to allow 6- high?
Plenty of empty land, go set up that emergency storage at 1-high IMO.
Every square foot of buildable land in Southern California flat enough to drop a container was built on decades ago.
Sounds reasonable...
Is there a reason they can only stack containers 2 high? Safety, etc?
Maybe 3 high. 6 is crazy dangerous.
10 high is generally considered the safest limit on land. 12 high is standard for full. Empty ones can go much higher if they are lashed together. The limit is probably the forklifts in the yards.
Earthquake danger in CA?
Why do people in California always think California is the only place that gets earthquakes?
Where did I say that
LA certainly has earthquakes. I am wondering why the limit here.
Earthquakes can't be the reason they stack them high within the terminals but not if parked in a nearby overflow lot.
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Why can’t the local zoning boards over-ride their rules? Why must it be the Pres/Gov? What assholes.
<att><RP><proposed-temporary-policy for port-traffic-jams><LA><Allow truck yards to store empty containers up to six high instead of the current limit of 2. Make it temporary for ~120 days.>
<add><att><when implemented and successful for contrubutor and State.>
but that would solve the problem...last thing politicians want to do
Why an Executive order, Long Beach and LA should do it themselves ASAP
I hear that the spotted owls and delta smelt fish get very sad if you ease any regulations. You don’t want sad owls and fish on your hand, do you?
Or make a temporary yard to store containers.
This seems to easy and affective for the government to implement.
This thread is absolutely on the right track but it’s really important to know why a law or policy is in place before making an exception to it
I hope you don't get any high winds. We stack empties using a 'ziggurat' type form, but they get blown over.
Truckers would also be assisted by temporary suspension of rules related to tractor age and reinstatement of economic incentive to pickup during off hours.
There are really a whole lot of issues with regard to truckers, but this is not really one of the biggest issues.
I think you are underestimating the political sabotage element here. Common sense solutions are not allowed to happen because the people in charge feel their political importance threatened by them.
If we let workers do the right things, what will the Managers do? The Managers must always run the show, even if it means doing the exact opposite of the correct solution that was suggested to them by non Managers.
There are tens of Manchin/Synema like figures along the chain of command required to approve of your solutions, and they draw all their power and importance from not allowing them to happen.
Honest Question: is that safe?
Is the limit because if earthquake safety?
Must be done SAFELY. Be sure the yards have safety protocols for this.
The WSJ video below shows lots of containers piled more than 2 high??
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Doesn't the ongoing port crisis shine a light on the problems with our just-in-time global economy? If America can't import things, won't we be forced to once again make things?
Is stacking 6 high safe? Is there past incidents that required them to go 2 high?
So disappointed in these comments. "ThErEs A rEaSoN fOr ThEsE LaWs!" Y'all are the problem.
top idea, but do the truck yards have the physical capability to stack 6 containers high as opposed to 2 or did they design their infrastructure around the regs (i.e. it's 2 tops)?
To logical. Think of another idea.
dumb. you don't even know why they have the restriction. Or you think the risk is worth it. Other solutions with less risk are available.
What is the rationale for the 2 limit please Ryan?
Is this suggested measure or something they are actually doing?
Getting a Forklift with the capability to go six high could be a problem. What about scrapping them? Start crushing and melting, sell steel back to China in sheets.
- get the CEO for Flexport on your show TODAY and Monday.
Your writers can fix it up.
Be a hero, be a leader and talk to - @typesfast
I was just telling someone the other say that we need to stack cans at yards. Was shocked when I saw operations at SEATAC keeping the cans on the chassis. I had only seen VCR & MTL where they do stack prior to that. But then again, how many yards have pickers?
This shows them routinely stacked at 6 to 8 high
transportgeography.org/contents/chapt…
Effective immediately Long Beach is allowing cargo to be stacked up to 4 containers high at container lots across the city. And up to 5 containers with safety approvals. Previously 2 had been the limit. This is a temporary move to address our national supply chain emergency.
I suspect this has something to do with the proclivity of Southern California to have earthquakes. A 6 container stack is likely to fall over in a much smaller quake than a stack of 2.
I don’t think this one works for several reasons, the most important is that stacking 3 times higher and trying to do that at a rapid pace to keep up with emptying truck beds is just going to lead to some very dead dominos. People make mistakes going fast.
What stops those cities from taking this step themselves? Could they do it faster than POTUS?
You fixed it!
twitter.com/RobertGarcia/s…
Effective immediately Long Beach is allowing cargo to be stacked up to 4 containers high at container lots across the city. And up to 5 containers with safety approvals. Previously 2 had been the limit. This is a temporary move to address our national supply chain emergency.
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Oh, my sweet summer child.
4 containers stack, that's what they did today, for 90 days
This is a potential safety disaster, so price that risk into the calculation.
Russian proverb: nine women cannot make baby in one month.
Do they all have the gear required to stack 6 high?
Do those truck yards have suitable craneage to be able to stack 6-high?
Hard to believe its not already a done deal !
Why do think they want to resolve this issue?
This sounds simple, I’d love to know why only two are stacked before removing regulations. Is it less safe due to earthquakes? Are there unintended consequences when stacking 6 high that one may not initially be aware of?
Here’s your answer to getting the ships off the coast for your constituents. Mind helping Ryan out with access?
I've heard that exporters are having trouble getting containers because prices in Asia have owners preferring to send them back empty asap... Diverting more empties to exporter warehouses might improve the situation?
Well thought out and simply brilliant.
Your model seems to be that this isn’t the situation they desire. Why would you think that? The “never let a crisis go to waste” people are in power.
But I think some of the problem is there's nowhere to PUT the stuff taken out of the ports. Warehouses are out of space. Companies are out of warehouses.
If the labor issue could get resolved - anyone know what this space is used for? You don’t need warehouses to stack containers - just space. The top part is Navy base, not sure about the whole area? Anyone local who knows?
know anyone?
Important for the leaders to read this pretty simple action plan... Thanks @typesfast
You think Democrats want to solve the problems they created? 😂
This feels like @balajis warning about COVID in Jan 2020
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Seems your plan is a version of the storage issue/plan first introduced by fortisanalysis.substack.com --> "From Chaos to Complicated", Oct 10.
Any insight into whether or not Fortis Analysis is working with @SecretaryPete @POTUS @GavinNewsom and team?
"simple"
You're right that this is a federal problem; it is not a "California Problem"; LB/LA is a choice made by the shipping companies and their port operators (long term contracts). Aside from this, there are way too many independent moving parts. Only strong federal action can do it.
Hey @GavinNewsom have you or your office seen this tweet thread? Suggest you read it and start to do something to help clear up this mess. @POTUS suggest you guys look at this and start to implement a plan that addresses all of the issues ASAP. @PeteButtigieg please review & act
It all sounds good, but my question is: are there sufficient truckers available to haul the stuff out? I mean...isn't a trucker shortage part of how the containers got backed up in the first place?
Truckers want to work, especially the independent ones. If the money is right, they will make it happen. Help make it easy for them to grab backhauls and make good money in both directions—they will show up. These people are used to having to adjust on the fly.
Where are all the unemployed truck drivers spoken of? Aren’t shipments out of west coast ports at record highs? On a personal note I prefer semi drivers have a license.
Many of them were idle during the pandemic, so got new jobs. Many are not going back to driving.
The weak link in that plan is asking Sleepy Joe @POTUS to take action. What's Plan B?
Augh - I thought this was a plan they were putting into action and was marveling at the government using its power in creative and effective ways to solve a critical problem. If only
The problem is lack of drivers, not lack of chassis. Plenty of boxes, not enough drivers.
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What do you think @VGolfierV ?
Could @naviscargo help with putting the plan together?
This is where it breaks down. People like Biden/Newsom don't partner with the private sector. They punish and fine the private sector. Wonder how that'll work?
Are there rail lines nearby? It sounds like moving containers out of populated areas via rail convoys could help free up space.
SE California has plenty of desert space.
I’m hearing Jonah here…
Idea : Use the Commerce Clause for what it was originally intend. Void the BS California regulations that are preventing independent truckers from coming in and moving the cargo out of state.
Any B-Schooler would refer to this as a Herbie! 😀
Right, you have to shoot the donkeys.
Theory of constraint calls it “ELEVATE THE BOTTLENECK”, but as a long as we get rid of the bottleneck, I am all for it.
The next problem is the trains that haul everything to the rest of the peasants in the middle of the Country. When the whole MidWest and Texas froze for like 10 days it stopped the trains and messed up the tracks because we never pay to fix our infrastructure
Why did this bottleneck manifest at this precise point of time?
The same infra and unions and laws has not produced this bottleneck before.
What happened?
The ports continued to take in containers and used up all available space when drivers stopped picking them up?
Stimulus happened 😏
Good point. You can see this illustrated in our video today of the port of L.A.
On The News - What America's Supply-Chain Backlog Looks Like Up Close
California’s Port of Los Angeles is struggling to keep up with the crush of cargo containers arriving at its terminals, creating one of the biggest choke points
wsj.com
Aren't all the empty lots around these industrial areas being used officially and unofficially as squatter camps for the homeless? That's the way it is in Oakland, California.
The people running the yards took in too many containers.
What is normal process for empties? Do they get loaded onto ship right after full ones are unloaded? Why aren’t empties being loaded onto empty ships? Seems ultimately this has to also be the focus?
Leave it to @PeteButtigieg the pro
Doesn't the sky-rocketing price of land in west coast cities make yard space more capital intensive than cranes?
They need to cycle the containers out of active outgoing freight yards into passive storage nearer to where they are needed for new goods. The place has clogged arteries and needs a bypass
How about an EO requiring shipper load an empty for each laden one. Or a ship full of empties per #/days or unloads. Since low # of exports, start reducing empties volume in yards to offset or we’ll continue to compound the imbalances. Along w/temp yards, more impactful & focused
What I don’t understand is what caused the bottleneck to move from the cranes to the yard space in the first place?
good thread - but
Actually, loaded ships are bottleneck
Travel time from China is 12 days. Need to get ships turned around fast. Cranes, storage & chassis should all be over provisioned.
The design should include that there is always cranes available
How are the ships the bottleneck? They're literally sitting at the port waiting to unload.
A round trip via $100M container ship is 24 days. So 24 days is minimum cycle time. Every other resource is subordinate. On a greenfield port design - goal would be to design significant excess capacity on $30M cranes, chassis, storage etc. Longbeach has 17 cranes.
17 cranes - theoretical capacity is 45 containers per hour - but they far below this. 24x17x45 = 18K containers per day. Avg ship is 24K containers. So entire port capacity is 1 ship per day. 100 ships currently waiting. Back of the napkin - we need another 100 cranes
thanks for the thread Ryan - I agree with your thought process and this is a solvable problem that needs competent leadership
The Port of Los Angels has 82 container cranes and the Port of Long Beach has 69 container cranes.
Well, in the age before containers it was unloading the ship (breakbulk); and containers made it sooo fast.
New bottlenecks will appear and disappear depending on situational dynamics.
🤯 I’m going to enjoy thinking about how this could apply to my architecture practice.
That's not always true. In a queueing system, maximizing the utilization of the most expensive server may not optimize overall system. It can lead to excess system-level WIP. The WIP explosion can create a phase change to non-linear behavior which cripples flow.
What is the name of this field of study? I love this stuff and want to learn more.
The practice is called operations management, the analytical theory behind it is called operation research, and the theory behind the behavior of waiting lines and flows in systems with variability is called queueing theory. Much of it is not obvious, even to smart people.
See also: Eliyahu Goldratt's Theory of Constraints.
thus is a great thread
Holy crap, it sure is.
Sounds suspiciously like Andy Grove's High Output Management!
i am leaning in
This first sentence is HUGE
I think this is the most valuable tweet of this entire thread.
Amazing how a good book comes back to you when you run a business or are problem solving. Reminds of the book - The Goal by Eliyahu Goldratt.
I wrote this down. Thank you for sharing that!
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Best business book ever.
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Bottlenecks MUST be located as close to the beginning of a process as possible. Where is that? China?
no that is not correct and it is not at all what he said.
It's is, actually correct. Read "The Goal" by Goldratt, or get a degree in Industrial Engineering. Or work in manufacturing.
Why would you want to locate the bottleneck in China and leave all the ships and cranes and trucks under used?
We shouldn't buy so much from China. How is this so hard to understand? We can buy from other places or make more here.
I am sorry your mother is also your sister. Maybe with enough therapy you can manage to function in society.
Also i am pretty certain the topic is unloading cargo ships.
This is factually incorrect
Excellent point!!!!
theory of constraints 101 from The Goal by Eliyahu Goldratt.... Didn't McKinsey make Buttigieg read this?
That's
*puts on sunglasses*
The Goal
You had to take a boat ride to figure this out?
Give the containers to the homeless.
Instruct the "union" to hire more people and move those empty containers. Hire owner operator truck drivers to remove empty containers into any location possible, not just designated ones. Looks like the unions are screwing this up. They have had it easy for too long.
Simple? You are missing a ton of inputs and outputs. Aka you are over simplifying the issue(s).
Hire Amazon
No, Ryan, only limited mitigation to ease the pain. It is a long term structural problem that need unwinding and permanent federal regulation (a la: aircraft and railroads). There are way too many parts. There are some near term mitigations that will help however.
How might this play out downstream if left unchanged?
Are there more efficient ways to route incoming ships now?
IF you can stack 6 containers on a ship but can only stack 2 on land, then why aren’t they loading the empties back onto ships for temp storage - just temporarily?
sorry, pedantic, it's a positive feedback loop with negative consequences
Yeh was confused for a second there
Funny how Off shoring production over last 40 years by vulture capitalists never comes up.
Is Consumerism our religion or just another virus 🦠 ?
It’s human nature. Try and fight it
You would think we should have a federal agency to address this. Something to do with Transportation and commerce. If only...
What do you think this is? The socialist 70s?
Well the economy certainly looks like the 70's
Don't worry, Pete Buttigieg is on it. He once got some buses running in South Bend, Indiana. Sort of.
Technically it is a positive feedback loop. A negative feedback would dampen the effect while a positive one makes the it worse, like audio feedback causing screeching with a microphone
I always tell people that stuff like this is a positive feed back cycle with a negative effect. Otherwise the point is lost.
It is only a negative effect if it not the effect you desire. There are plenty of situations where a cascading effect is wanted.
Came here to say this lol 👍
It’s all about the labor, that simple.
The most important part of temporary crisis plans is to continuously go back to the starting point for creating them. Otherwise they become susceptible to the same feedback loops and expand the problem instead of resolve the original issue.
Catch-22
You mean positive feedback loop. The negative feedback loop is balancing. Positive feedback loop is reinforcing ... into oblivion
Inshallah
Does that mean we can go back to good paying MFG jobs in US? I could care less about China
positive
Seems like the global economy shouldn't depend on such a small margin of error then
destroying the global economy.. haha calm down..
please keep in mind that not every port on the planet is as incompetent as the port of LA
That is positive feedback. Negative feedback dampens
That's a positive feedback loop, en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_…. And apologies for being pedantic.
Positive feedback - Wikipedia
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en.m.wikipedia.org
yes yes, oh shit, keep going i'm almost there
This is worldwide issue, still not sure who is gaining.
Tarrifs jumped in a year more than in 2009.
Not good
Yep, can confirm from my front row seat across the country... 😛 mobile.twitter.com/Mimi_Rose_01/s…
The other problem is that the yards are full to bursting with stacks of containers awaiting pickup because of scheduling issues & truck driver & chassis shortage; makes everything move a little slower when there's no elbow room
If the @USNationalGuard is brought in, would love to see those ports offer permanent jobs to unemployed @USNationalGuard.
I saw three container ships off the coast IN MALIBU yesterday, looking like sci-fi dystopian floating cities.
So if everything is expired by time it makes it to stores. Will be the deflation we have been waiting for? Friend was asking...
They need to be diverted. Available resources are COMMITTED!!!
Why can't the newly unloaded ship, then be loaded with the empty containers and returned to whence it came?
He mentioned that "the containers are not fungible between carriers" plus I think they really don't have the space to juggle containers in the port. I've watch with my preschooler a dumpster truck change out a full dumpster. First have to put the empty one down in the street...
then pick up the full one from the house demolition then put that down somewhere else on the street, pick up the empty one and put it in front of the house then finally go pick up the full one and go off to the dump. I've also heard that there's a container shortage in Asia...
so they must be sailing empty ships back there when it should be arranged that the empty ships go to another port to pick up empties before they go back. Something is telling me there are not enough ports to do this.
Why can't the containers be piled up in desert cities like Palmdale where there is plenty of flat land ? Are the trucking companies responsible for safety of the empties ?
Cancel Christmas
Catch 22
Another startup out in the desert could take those empties and hold them. Even with the added expense, it would be cheaper than the money lost in traffic. Blimp lift them!
Great analysis. Thanks. Is their any consideration to the chasis owners who generally move them worldwide on a supply demand basis. The "chasis shock" is due to their global supply of chasis never been in a world wide shortage. What's their responsibility to not be fragile?
Where are these chassis all being stored? Is there some place that can store chassis with empties on them, but not the empties alone?
Yes. You can store a chassis with an empty on it anywhere that you can park a truck. But to store an empty, you need someplace with a crane that can move containers onto and off of a chassis.
How will this impact the prices for empty containers on the continent, if at all?
why they don’t place the empty containers in low use land (dessert land) and go back to Long beach?
Why aren't empty containers being taken away?
They need a crane to store them on their ends so they are tall, not stacked.
Maybe a strange question, but do you have empty depots in your region? Here in NW Europe terminals do not accept empty units (for storage). They are stored at dedicated empty depots awaiting to be stuffed with cargo.
In this situation, if I were him, I'd be tempted to say, "I dare you!"
If your livelihood was at stake, would you?
Of all the components of this supply chain pileup this one stands our as the single most bonkers. Zoning re: empty stack heights sucking up all the pin chassis in LA/LB. 🤯
How did the cities not waive this at the first sign of trouble?
TBC I'm not saying it's the worst component. Just the dumbest and silliest.
Truly low hanging fruit.
Well first you need 6 months of community meetings for public input. Then you need to fight off the inevitable law suits. Thats if you an convince the people in charge that its their problem to begin with.
Nimbys
I thought only we Germans do such crazy regulations…
Isnt there a desert 1-2 hr east of long beach?
A mobile crane big enough to remove empties is 1000$ per day in TN.
As an uninformed observer, what is the justification for this?
Seems like it might be worth striking.
Oh wow. Well, there isn’t a “justification” in a way that you would consider objective, but to get a sense of the reason, follow @nextdoorsv
I’m sure there’s a similar account for LA.
Striking?
“Uninformed” is an understatement.
Just what would that accomplish there, Einstein?
I just realized this was an insult lol.
I meant strike as in remove the rule because it seems silly on it's face.
Workers striking would be untenable in these circumstances.
Thanks for the catch 👍
Good on you my man😎
Sounds like an opportunity for desert storage of containers
There is a huge lot on Carson street with containers stacked 6 high. Not sure where this person is located that he's not allowed to go higher than 2.
The 2 high is for Trucking depots and yards, like the port truck accesses. If youre running a warehouse, that seems fine
So the cokepoint places you might need to have the ability to stack a lot on in and out flow for variable high throughput are the places you're not allowed to
That is fucked up. No emergency authority for this, as seems they store them plenty high everywhere else.
Could only do one layer high, for fear of toppling over? Cool idea if they can secure them.
This is a metaphor for something.
THat's not correct - I lived in Long Beach and they store them 4-5 high all over the place. Check out google street view here:
Google Maps
Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.
google.com
It's possible there is a local difference depending on the neighborhood but I don't know where that could be.
I'm not certain, but that doesn't appear to be a truck yard. They probably are zoned differently than however this plot is zoned.
So, I looked into it. The height restriction is specific to areas being used specifically as trucking terminals or yards.
twitter.com/JohnCarolin/st…
For everyone saying "Well, I've seen them stack containers higher elsewhere in Long Beach", you're probably right! The stacking limit of 2 containers appears to be specific to trucking terminals and yards and not other industrial facilities.
Here's the relevant zoning code:
And the lot you're showing in street view definitely isn't being used as a trucking terminal/yard (or isn't law abiding one, at least). It isn't following any of the setback, landscaping, and fencing requirements that are also particular to these types of facilities.
Ah very interesting. Yeah - that's some kind of storage lot specifically for containers I think. It's been that way for 12+ years, or since before I lived in Long Beach.
Here is the parcel detail portal.assessor.lacounty.gov/parceldetail/7…
Looks like that parcel is zoned Medium Industrial (IM), so it might be in violation of the Long Beach Municipal Code?
does it always come back to zoning??
Hey @SupJaniceHahn your Ordinance from 15 years ago is rearing its head on the national supply chain.
appears to have space. And there’s definitely empty lots close to the terminals where empty containers could be temporarily stored heck @PortofSeattle even
please fix this zoning code for the economy
In Seattle they pile containers at least 8 high in the yards.
NIMBYism is a cancer.
This one seems like a solvable problem. The city could easily find more space somewhere or relax zoning temporarily .
For everyone saying "Well, I've seen them stack containers higher elsewhere in Long Beach", you're probably right! The stacking limit of 2 containers appears to be specific to trucking terminals and yards and not other industrial facilities.
Here's the relevant zoning code:
That's Longbeach specific, where there are very few if any truck yards or terminals. Longbeach isn't all that big, it's mostly container terminals and there are exceptions for Port Indst. Changing those restrictions won't have much of an impact. Its like one yard, maybe.
They would need to make them earthquake safe.
Can you lean on this hoss??
Force California to allow doubles to operate. You cannot e a 40 and a 20 foot co trainer with one truck.
Empty containers? No problem. Fill them with water balloons
probably another good reason the port of Houston is doing fine. They can probably stack stuff to the moon and no one would bat an eye
It’s always the fucking zoning.
interesting thread on some zoning issues causing container problems affecting us supply chain
So they can't give a temporary exemption?
Great thread! Something like 60% of all containers for the nation go through the port of LA and LB!!
See my comment 2 back ... this is stupid (a non-constructive local regulation). This is asking for preemptive regulation. Just try to enforce this in a rail yard (no way Jose; federal jurisdiction)
They should approve a waiver
You got a citation for that regulation?
This issue is a red herring that many here have grabbed on to container storage/handling has become a well developed science with standards not to be messed with. The can be dangerous even when thought to be well secured. Aside from that it is a nimby issue.
Alternatively, send all empty containers directly via rail to offsite yard for reconfiguration into ADUs. Ship new container dwelling units off to jurisdictions and individuals on an auction platform. Traffic jam and some housing shortage alleviated.
This is the best one.
There’s also the truck emissions requirements?
I haven’t worked in drayage for 10 years so may be wrong, but aren’t there both rail yards and truck yards inland who can unchassis containers?
This seems like a solvable problem our gov doesn’t want to.
This is government in action.
Code schmode
Can he turn them sideways? 🤔
LBC needs to do an immediate and temp moratorium, if that’s the case
Bureaucratic ineptitude? My shocked face 🤨
Zoning blocking American ingenuity yet again.
they just changed that today to 4 high
Fuck long Beach for this.
Effective immediately Long Beach is allowing cargo to be stacked up to 4 containers high at container lots across the city. And up to 5 containers with safety approvals. Previously 2 had been the limit. This is a temporary move to address our national supply chain emergency.
It would be pretty funny if California zoning regulations destroyed the world.
Can they store the containers on their ends rather than lying flat?
We can do four and now possibly five stack.
This should help.
But this is a long term issue.
X,'''/./m, I,..knl. Put k no
M5gg7 ,
"owner operator drivers" sounds like a friendly way of saying "exploited port truckers forced into debt slavery"
How trucking companies forced drivers into debt, worked them past exhaustion and left them destitute
Thousands of drivers work up to 20 hours a day, sometimes for pennies. When they get sick or refuse to keep working, trucking companies fire them and take their trucks – along with thousands they have paid toward buying them
usatoday.com
Can this possibly be true? Are there pictures? I mean seriously are they are piled up 3 high ON TOP OF A CHASSIS to just to get around city code? That is too stupid to believe
Non fungible containers
The dumb containers aren't fungible!? 😬
"containers are not fungible between carriers"
🤯
Why aren’t containers fungible between carriers? After reading “The Box” I thought that that was their goal. Curious.
Making the containers fungible would probably help somewhat, for instance the problem others noted with stacking empties 6-high would go away. I believe railroads have been doing this for a long time.
It sounds like container prices are going to crash here in America as companies try to offload them to free up ports.
Those darn NFCs.
I thought the whole point for shipping containers was to standardize fungibility. What are some of the incompatibilities?
Ownership and contracts mostly... There's also some considerations about previous cargo- don't want food in a container prev used for hazmat...
The containers are mostly standardized but their condition isn't, I am not going to exchange my brand new shiny container for your clunker on its last leg that has already been weld repaired half a dozen times.
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YES. This is a really interesting insight. What if the containers were modular ?
Ah, the universal phone charger issue
Can they make it fungible between carriers?
Nice use of fungible
And here, children, is where you realize a startup could make a killing buying and rebranding those containers.
Storage space is limited on land and logistics doen't support having multiple collection points in varying temporary locations, unless these collection points are barges in the port. Storing empty containers on barges eliminates truck yard overages, keeps containers isolated.
Why are the empty containers piling up in the first place? This seems like a very very stupid reason for a world trade haulting congestion.
Worker shortages from the pandemic finally rekt the efficiency of port automation. How ironic.
Wait - meaning the containers don’t fit different rigs, or they are only allowed to stay within same company. Assume the latter
How come there is room to park 450 chassis but not room to dump 450 containers onto that same spot? And two high cuts that in half.
Why aren't empty containers not getting loaded back onto the ships. No space at the port?
Such inflexibility demands countervailing regulation. Self inflicted constraint is not an excuse in a crisis. Try this sort of logic is a wartime situation and you get you head shot off. This is nothing be asking to be regulated.
This can be dealt with by ExecOrder.
Ok great work/great thread but u don't have to say fungible lol
Wait... why not??
I thought the whole promise and value of containerized shipping was the uniformity and... I guess... fungibility of containers. Is it just a matter of branding on the containers?
The containers are mostly standardized but their condition isn't, I am not going to exchange my brand new shiny container for your clunker on its last leg that has already been weld repaired half a dozen times.
Wasn't containerization invented to solve this exact problem?
Surely this specific aspect is fixable with some $$ and a couple of cans of paint. What’s the price of. Non fungible container on the open market?
If Biden’s going to get rid of zoning rules he may as well get @CRATEModular to do some supportive housing with some of these empties.
Why aren’t containers fungible across carriers? Wasn’t the point of containers to be fungible
Ill take their empties... (dont own land but my landlord has thus big lot i can borroq)
Can the chassis with empty containers move to a dump yard equivalent? Offsite Warehouses Yards which usually are empty. How about extend bonded warehouse network to unload empties outside of the terminal area and ease congestion.
Quick refurbishment and added amenities and make them tiny houses for the homeless. A few thousand bucks vs half-a-million for stick construction shack. Get creative!!!!!
This seems like the crux of the problem. Why can't the port authority just require the terminals to start accepting empties to clear the backlog?
But the government doesn’t have spare land to drop empties off? Right. Right. Got it. #fakenews
Do any of these empty containers fold flat? Seems like a good "long term" fix
Charter empty vessels to take away empties from your port, never mind the owner or line, send them back to Asia, to a port with more capacity like Singapore. Create an exit terminal just to send back containers. So the port can take in new containers from the ships queueing.
I’m thinking those empty containers could make a dent in the housing crisis. If I’d had a couple of the 2 months ago, I had a 35 acre property in Colorado I could have put them on.
Slapstick?
This is how it all collapses...
Are used container prices dropping?
It seems like just from a business perspective, their should be an opportunity for someone to buy some empty space out in the desert and start filling it with chassis.
So why is there a shortages of containers for sale? Shouldn’t one trip WWT containers be going for less, or some type of consignment arrangement?
Can someone explain what the chassis is referring to?
pelicancontainers.com/container-chas…
A lot of the semi trucks you see aren’t vans or enclosed, they’re a simple trailer that you attach a shipping container to.
New & Used 20ft Shipping Container Chassis for Sale in United States
Find the perfect 20 foot shipping container chassis for your specific needs in USA. These 20ft container chassis comes with different forms like tri-axle slider, straight frame tandem axle, and double-drop chassis and flush back container chassis.
pelicancontainers.com
Thank you
Why would they not be letting 1 for 1 swaps…
Makes sense, our country is no longer producing and exporting product. Everything is imported and nothing going back out. Thanks for sharing and more importantly..... Let's go Brandon!
California law requires the truck be less than 3 years old in order to be able to load. @AjaforCongress
Correct
Not enough truckers to pickup the containers is holding up the ports. I guess calling in the military to help is not an option. @POTUS @USTreasury @DNC @GOP @RandPaul @SenRonJohnson @SecDef @SecBlinken @USTradeRep
Been the case for awhile
They went from FIFI - First In First Out
To LIFO - Last In First Out
To FISH
First In Still Here
#supplychainfail
Once the terminals reach a 96% capacity from what I remember, they will screech to a halt. No need for ships to quickly work since the terminal efficiency has plummeted. Assuming some shippers have to be thinking about declaring a force majeure.
What stopped the normal flow in the first place?
Your explanation is very good, but what made that same system go from working to not working?
Immediate cause: COVID consumerism Long-term cause: off-shore manufacturing of every forking thing
You don’t think this is due to vaccine mandates for truckers, California’s destructive AB5 law that crushed owner operators or California’s environmental regulations that put a severe hamper on the types of trucks that can be on the road? You’re blaming consumerism?
Here's what changed! @POTUS 🤡🤷🏽♂️
The date also changed, maybe everything only works when the year isn’t 2021
Oh are we not just stating random things that changed at the same time? The question was asking for -cause- not coincidence
Lol... Maybe! 😁🤷🏽♂️
Can we fast track housing permits for homes and ADUs built with containers and solve 2 problems at once?
Containers also aren't good building material.
Clearly many of the ships have made a bad choice as where to unload. Seattle/Tacoma utilization ~50%; Oakland similar, Portland wide open. All can handle most ships at LB/LA, have ample storage, and excellent rail connections. Not all that cargo is for SoCal. Looks like suicide.
You're bottleneck is also based on the limitation of destinations. Even if the port and trucks run 24 hours a day the destinations do not and so you just move the bottleneck from port to truck because you can't force cargo recipients to operate 24 hours a day to receive goods
If they don't have land to store containers on, they must rent it. If they can't rent it, they can't move any containers. And it goes back to square one again.
I guess we really did need Ever given to block up the channel again
I’ve also heard it’s a massive shortage of truckers in LA. They’re offering signing bonuses and higher salaries for truckers
Can some containers be donated to homeless charities, tiny home initiatives, or Habitat for Humanity? Tell them it's yours. Come pick it up.
So if the bottleneck is yard space, why do we have leaders who think that throwing more man hours at the situation is going to resolve the issue? This will likely turn into a defining crisis of the current admin, and yet it seems like they make their decisions in a vacuum.
Maybe it's time to lower taxes on corporations that move manufacturing back to USA.
WE NEED... Made in USA.
DON'T NEED.
Designed in USA.
Designed in California. (a-holes at apple)
Not assembled in USA.
Made in China.
How about paying your fair share in the USA?
Route some ships to Charleston. We have no backlog here. Normal ops as of now. What's it cost to run a ship roundtrip through the Panama Canal vs. idling off Long Beach for 6 weeks?
We have drone videos of the entire port when needed. much easier to view than on a boat. glad you had fun
Send them to Texas!
That’s exactly what he said not to do.
I totally understand the thread and the issues with empties. But a “standstill?” POLA Exec Director Seroka said last week that Sept was highest TEU processing in 114 year history of the port. YTD throughput in Aug of 7.3 men TEUs is 32% higher than in 2019. What am I missing?
You’re missing that this is a sales pitch
👍 Picked up on that at the end.
"A 3 hour tour"
The port of Oakland had one container ship in port last night and they were not working cargo. All other docks EMPTY!
Ships are being redirected from LA & Stockton to Vancouver.
Our trucking industry is robust & our ports are being expanded.
What's wrong with the Crain operators???
Question is why are some of these ships not going to Oakland? Oakland port says they are open, and have space... It is as big and deep as LA
EXACTLY! App based driver in LA. In last 2 months, I’ve been in Long Beach San Pedro about 10 times. As I looked across the horizon each time I can never see ONE container on the air.
What time of day was your tour?
May be a daft question, but why are there so many empty containers? What's changed?
More fun than grieving families - that’s a pretty low bar Ryan but I’m glad you got over it.
well, they do work for tips.
Lively. 🙂
I bet.
A lot more fun? Really? Folks who weren’t mourning a dead person were more fun than folks who were mourning a dead person? Doesn’t ring true for me, sorry. 🤷🏻♂️
How has no media entity or reporter done this yet. Great work to shed light on arguably our nation’s most important story at the moment.
Well, I bet...at least he had a ore upbeat trip presumably
Interesting. We rented a boat for a 3 hour tour of Long Beach a few weeks ago. Our captain said port tours have been a staple of the industry for many years:
The Current State of The Supply Chain
https://www.freightright.com/
youtube.com
They are stacking containers x 4’s now... bring those ships to Oakland they can take them.
its wild what California regulates when it comes to water... and this dude is out there dumping ash piles of grandpas
There's extensive regulation involved, at both the state and federal level. Most notably, you must go at least three nautical miles from shore, ensure that anything scattered (including flower petals, etc.) is biodegradable, and have a state license.
usurnsonline.com/burial/regulat…
"Cremated Remains Disposer" is the license type; you get it from the Cemetery and Funeral Bureau Licensing Unit of the Department of Consumer Affairs.
(The biodegradable requirement is mostly a "no plastic containers" requirement.)
cfb.ca.gov/licensee/cremd…
What a mess!!
Noticing a trend with your ”first off” humble brags lol
twitter.com/typesfast/stat…
First off, they told us that Flexport is the first outside company in the history of the port to send in a food truck as a sign of gratitude. They loved it. /2
Wow I love it someone with actual real word ideas. Good suggestions, with this kind of thinking don't go into politics, politics is no place for logic and reason.
I mean, you're not really supposed to drive pleasure craft around there
Instead of the yard being in California, put it in Arizona just over the border. Have the trains do that loop. It allows the trucks illegal in California to pick up containers in Arizona and get them moving. This is along I-10, so moving things east should be easy.
The only time I've ever sailed with one of those private operators out of LB was, indeed, for a burial at sea. It never occurred to me to think about how the boat captain felt doing that all the time! Back and forth all day, everyday, with ashes and sad people for company. 😬
Ryan, hope you can get a meeting at least with Secretary Pete, and even the President. This sounds like a solid plan to implement.
threadreader unroll
Well yeah, since they are DEAD!
Hey, when we did my father-in-law’s memorial I think we were a fun group, he must be getting the grumpy mourners!
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If only we had an acting Secretary of Transportation to help enact some of this
can we ask Newsom about this plan and getting Ryan involved in solutions?
this thread needs coverage on the pod. Not enough people are aware of this problem.
Ryan offers a good solution here too. There may be more that we can do to help.
California has the largest shipping ports in the country (Long Beach/Los Angeles).
Next largest are in Newark NJ and Georgia.
What about San Diego, San Pedro?
important but not nearly as big as the top ten U.S. ports
I don't know if this was asked already, serious question, aren't some containers subject to inspection? Is that part of the bottleneck too?
This is probably a bottleneck as well. Good point.
Container port (Long Beach), yes. There are larger ports by tonnage.
I have so much respect for a CEO who is willing get down on the ground like this. Great insight
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Great thread & thanks for the insight 👍🏻 What a mess & just shows the true imbalance the world of Ocean Shipping is in.
What about direct loading all containers that are not destined for the LA area to rail and transport them to some other location outside the LA area for processing further distribution. Don't let them touch the ground in them Ports of LA/LB.
Agree. Freight routes need to be adjusted before leaving Asia. So many other ports with capacity that could be tapped; changing the destination before ships sail could prevent further congestion.
Do you realize how inept most of the government officials are? They can’t manage to do anything well. Have you been to the DMV and seen the voting lines? Now we want them to solve a logistical issue. God help us!
Don’t take this the wrong way, but you’ve clearly never worked with government officials. Lol
Not really. Our broken electoral system means that politicians are mostly concerned with fundraising for the next cycle, so any time spent doing things like that is a waste if they don't get a big PR boost for it. End choose one voting and publicly fund elections.
Why would they? How are politicians incentivized to solve problems? Solving problems doesn’t get the re-elected, shaking hands with rich people and inflaming tensions does.
It’s the private sector. They don’t want the government to interfere. The best ports in the world are all government controlled.
Study Finds Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Among the World's Least Efficient
In a review of 351 container ports around the globe, Los Angeles was ranked 328, behind Tanzania's Dar es Salaam and Alaska's Dutch Harbor. The adjacent port of Long Beach came in even lower, at 333, behind Turkey's Nemrut Bay and Kenya's Mombasa.
timesofsandiego.com
I guess you didn't read the whole thread?
Solid thread, Ryan. Great assessment and plan. Love the call to action and offer to help. Sign me up if they call on you to lead the effort. I agree it’s dire without action.
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Hey Ryan is there anything we can do to put pressure on local gov?
I was part of a process excellence team in the Middle East a few years back. We reduced average waiting time outside Jebel Ali port from 24 hours to 8 hours. It was combination of many small improvements that brought the aggregate improvement. I should make a thread 🧵🤣
I'd like to read your thread.
Please do and also contact @typesfast
please do
+@typesfast This is how we did it but the circumstances were different. 🧵
Please do, that is awesome. Where do you work now?
I already created the thread 🧵 and tagged you. To answer your question, I am now in FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) but I have so much port experience and no where to utilize it. I am currently based in Nairobi, Kenya. Hit my DM and we can pick up the conversation. Thanks
I’ve loved learning about Flexport on-the-ground experiences and experience in Long Beach. And this solution is brilliant and needs to executed asap. But I read this entire thread and never saw a single taco truck. 🤨
From my understanding much of the supply chain is privately controlled, the truck shortage is tied to union busting, and we have a major labor shortage.
Combine all those things ( and also don’t forget that truck drivers aren’t getting paid to wait)
And what you laid out is an awesome solution that is impossible to implement.
I commend you going to the ports ( my biz is connected to the SC as well) but from everything I know- we are too late for this holiday ( certainly) and will be looking in 2023 w bottlenecks
Why is it impossible to implement?
She has no idea what the fuck she is talking about. Ignore
And this systemic downward spiral bottleneck... It never reveals itself before now!? I'm sorry, but what you have uncovered is likely a symptom not a cause. Tell me why empties never accumulated like this before in more vibrant economic conditions?
Let’s go Brandon!
We just experienced a huge global slowdown followed by the current surge.
The system wasn't designed to handle large surges. It's a steady-state system. Increasing the size of the buffers will help.
There is no steady state with a complex system like this..there is always a constant ebb and flow..and buffers of sufficient size would already exist from prior, higher throughput economic conditions.
The devil is in the rate of change, if you define your steady state to be within certain parameters (variability/error) your statement is false. If you universally define steady state as a constant without a margin of change you are correct. Balance is an illusion.
My point is, there is no on/off to the economy..things would ramp up in all cases..this overwhelming 'surge' theory is a nice narrative.. but I think if we look at a staffing chart or two we might get closer to what the real cause is here 😉
The heart of it is what happened to create the bottleneck. Thumbing the scales too hard will easily push a system beyond its normal variance. But I agree with the staffing chart.
Rereading your tweet, I'm not sure the cause is of any importance at this point. I equally am enjoying the 'smart' people being incapable of coming up with a solution. The same smart people who fought off a pandemic... dramatization below.
Governments around the world literally tried forcing an on/off to the economy. This is reason number 49,374 why that was one of the worst ideas in history.
They do not. That's exactly what the article is describing.
No place to offload the empties ties up the trucks, which can't full containers, so the cranes and ships sit idle.
Imagine what happens when the producers run out of empties...
I get what it is describing..it is a symptom..the function that takes the empties away is not functioning at a sufficient rate anymore...surge is baloney, buffer is band aid thinking..this is likely a manufactured problem or a slow down protest by people who know how to slow it
Systems theory 101. A system can withstand X amount of perturbation, and though disturbed, will return to it's equilibrium. If it gets X+1 perturbation, it collapses entirely and eventually finds a new equilibrium, often at a much lower activity state.
If you dump a little cyanide in the lake, little happens, lakes are big and have some natural cyanide, the system adapts. If you dump a lot, there's a big shock but the lake eventually returns to normal.
Dump too much tho, and the fundamental nature of the ecosystem changes.
Did I also read that in California there is a law that prohibits trucks older than 2011 being used, and that after 2035 only electric trucks can be used, discouraging new truck investment?
If new or new technology trucks must be used that would encourage new truck investment.
Did they suddenly produce a huge number more containers, unlikely, most probably other factors are at work, seems to be a USA thing.
Printing money while hampering domestic production + covid restrictions. Maybe this is the new normal they talked about…
that’s a paper-thin “explanation”
No, you’re just confirming your own biases.
this is why. too much cash and consumer demand
Source?
La times, but it is using publicly available data that we have as well.
Isn’t staffing shortage at least partly the cause?
Not hardly. I'm a trucker whose just got home from the road for the last month. Been to the ports @ long Beach, Tacoma & Houston & lots of places in between. Been out of the otr game several years hauling regionally. There are waaay more trucks & drivers on the road than ever b4
Can you DM me please
It’s a surge in demand. Check the chart of inbound containers in this thread. The main culprit of this whole thing is an absolute tidal wave in demand. People saved a lot of money during the pandemic and it’s almost the holidays. Plus all backed up demand
1) US Demand way up (East to West up), China container demand down (West to East down: imbalance) - China doesn't want to play the same recycling game they used to. 2) Optimized systems are fragile and don't adapt quickly. 3) Few alternatives (Air is worse due to pandemic.)
We used to fill the containers with garbage and send them back
We effectively turned every Just In Time supply chain off for 18 months
Global lockdowns, have never happened before and we have no idea what their true impact is, it cannot be relate to previous conditions
We already had a glut of containers, with more coming in than shipping out. But hey, if you need one in your yard to provide extra storage you can grab one on the cheap, especially now
Nope. Places that sell empties to end consumers say there is a shortage and are charging almost double.
Where is the disconnect, and how do we solve it?
I question the 'large surge' theory here..this isn't an overnight sudden glut of containers showing up.. this has been allowed to happen.
Except it is a sudden overnight glut (more or less). There are a large number of ships queued up and the port just switched to 24/7 operations a week ago. We are seeing new bottlenecks appearing as a result of that sudden increase in throughput.
And what's your reason and resume to do so? The guy who is the CEO of a global supply chain company makes a lot of sense to me (says a guy whose father operated container-rail ramps and managed this problem for a decade, who I also once interned for).
You’re correct. Ships have been anchored off Huntington Beach since early 2020.
This is well documented. Rates are so high right now for fulls, that the ships don't want to take the empties back to China. Dig around, this information is out there.
It seems like actions are being taken to induce this outcome at the moment *because* it is a known pressure point. Actions have not been taken to alleviate but to exacerbate..ie, this isn't a surprise..this is intentional.
Oh, I see. Sorry, I left my foil hat somewhere else. I thought we were assuming good intent from rational humans. Forgot I was on Twitter. 🤷🏻♂️
Unfortunately we are at the point that explanations that should be off the table now cannot be ruled out anymore.
But go ahead and try to diminish by casting aspersions about foil hats.
You're free to speculate however you like, but it doesn't make it anything more than that.
I'm hypothesizing based on the broader global financial and political landscape. You are speculating it's just an isolated container buffer problem (oopsie) - but you are free to speculate however you like. 😉
This is likely a function of a Ripple Effect across the international supply chain for goods triggered by a ramp-up of demand for goods post Lockdowns. That level of demand likely exceeds that seen during vibrant economic periods, hence it has not been seen before. (1/n)
"The ripple effect occurs when a disruption, rather than remaining localised or being contained to one part of the SC, cascades downstream and impacts the performance of the entire SC" (1/3)
SC = Supply Chain
Ripple effect and supply chain disruption management: new trends and research directions
(2021). Ripple effect and supply chain disruption management: new trends and research directions. International Journal of Production Research: Vol. 59, No. 1, pp. 102-109.
tandfonline.com
It does make sense that processing containers will in some way be the problem i.e. that is an @ risk bottleneck in such situations: all goods that are part of international supply chains likely at some point converge in containers (3/3).
One further point: it may well be that the bottleneck is compounded to some extent by staffing shortages as a result of COVID i.e. as a result of refusers of vaccine mandates and/or the need of staff to isolate etc.
Thank you @typesfast clearest explanation of issue (with solution provided!). Any thoughts on “why now?” How did this problem start/grow so quickly when it seemed to be operating fine (my assumption) for many years?
Thx @edjop - Why are they not waiting to take back empties (now?) Did something structurally or practically change?
Making up my own answer here. International trade is a complex system of inflows and outflows. Ports are chokepoints in trade (and ports have their own chokepoints as @typesfast wrote). Sometimes, trade imbalances will occur and for the purposes of this issue we care about /1
trade imbalances by volume, specifically container volume. Logistically, this imbalance translates to a *not* 1:1 inflow/outflow container ratio. Managing this ratio has been history okay (perhaps not great), and the overflow gets carried off slowly /2
but the size of spike vs. buffer (yardspace) has been manageable. But during Covid, the inflow of goods from Asia during Covid has surged (Cato Institute). The outflow is driven by a combination of domestic-to-export manufacturing & agriculture output (which of course could /3
have been lumpy based on various Covid closures (which theoretically could be more lumpy than a more gradual increase/decrease of demand of US goods abroad) and on the demand-side is driven by the general re-opening & recovery of economies abroad importing US goods. /4
Long-story short: we're now in a situation where the imbalance far exceeds the buffer. (These are definitely my own musings.) /5
Yes. There was an ordering binge when the pandemic seemed to be ending. Demand didn't pick up fast enough to take goods, and they piled up at the ports and ships.
Exactly my obvious question: why has this suddenly happened? How can this guy write this long thread but not address this point?
At the root of all modern social problems is a liberal focused on intentions and not what is actually happening.
Like the same here.
The Leadership is on Paternity leave
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Great thread.
Does make you wonder what solutions , if any, have been proffered & tried if the situation is still as bad as explained in this thread.
I know nothing about this kind of stuff but find it interesting. Let’s hope somebody listens to you, assuming what you say is correct! Either way it’s better than doing nothing.
Also, the military could be put to work on this in any area where there’s a labor shortage. National guard, but also the regular military. We (U.S.) just called a lot of troops home. We should have plenty of spare hands and some skilled labor on government payroll if needed.
Oh the unions would love that. LOL.
This is not the military's job to do. What do you think they do when they call the national guard? They pull them away from their jobs to do another job...
“The military’s job”. Interesting, so if we aren’t currently policing the world elsewhere, they should not do anything such as, and here’s a wild thought, serve the national interest in a time of crisis? This is a good use of many in active military.
It's called National "GUARD". What part of " GUARD" don't you understand. It's not National "truckers Association" or National "Supply chain management".
My goodness. Forget the guard for a moment, that wasn’t my main point. You brought up the military in your first reply to me. Our military is the best solution here. Sounds like you’re against any solution. Besides being the pleasant peach that you are, is there any other reason?
Ppl don't understand how fast this can go south
Bring military omg
Well when their's no groceries on the shelves society breaks within days
And shit will get ugly
Where's the popcorn 🍿
Yeah good point, we would definitely never use them to respond to other non defense situations…like fires or floods, or disaster relief…
Forget that I mentioned the N Guard. That was an unnecessary add that I can’t edit. My point was intended to be about the active military.
Thank you. You as well.
Intent is good and I get it, but wouldn’t Posse Comitatus Act make this difficult? I think multiple solutions across separate bandwidths have to be employed to get this handled. Currently seems that only Executive Orders do anything these days.
Without a doubt. I think that this is the kind of situation developing into a crisis that merits executive order. As much as that’s overused, this may be a good use case.
By the way, crypto enthusiast here as well.
IANAL but IIRC the keys with posse comitatus are both (1) it being a police action and (2) support of the state. If Newsom agrees, (2) would be resolved. Truman's actions during the 40s/50s suggest that (1) wouldn't be an objection.
Very possible. Bunch of my Army and Marine buddies gave me a big 'ol negatory. IANAL either, but I think we could sure use any military members that can operate the machinery/vehicles to get this shit poppin'!
I mean, 88U exists for a reason...beef up that MOS and it's only a question of locomotives (I'd bet some shortlines would happily lease theirs out) and access (I think you can make a case for eminent domain as a negotiating tool for some slots here).
Lol the military would be distraction. They don’t have the training to handle anything. They would be extra bodies in the way.
The simpletons always say “call in the military”.
Is labor shortage what's causing the empty containers to stack up at the port? if not, I'm not sure military is a solve, but if @typesfast's plan is to work, someone's gotta move those empties off-site. I'm guessing it won't be unionized portworkers, so ...
The root cause of this problem are the arcane zoning codes in Long Beach. As usual, more government, more problems.
I totally agree with this. Use the national guard and quickly train them to add bodies to fill every post they can get trained to fill. Lots of heavy machine operators and truck drivers in the military.
Yep, you’re right. Many are trained to operate heavy machinery and drive trucks. It’s an obvious solution to a pressing problem, if everyone could simply remove any politics from it.
Yeah, lots of military jobs are about keeping supply lines running. Get the Army Corps of Engineers to clear this log jam. @USACEHQ could you fix this?
wow. Sounds like real leadership with solutions all thought out. I’m wondering what part does the Newsome executive order to not use private truckers play. Only union truckers allowed now or isn’t that in effect yet?
This situation is too globally impactful to limit what type of qualified people can help. All hands on deck.
A major function of the military is logistics. This is their sweet spot.
We have a 5% unemployment rate. Stop subsidizing that and put people to work.
If only more people were willing to work. I don’t know about where you live, but we have all types of different jobs requiring no skill to specialized skills here. They can’t find people willing to work. If we are paying the troops anyway & they aren’t abroad, they make sense.
Not gonna happen. They’re busy studying white rage at the moment.
Great thread…
Why no one is fixing this is asinine.
I don’t work anywhere near this industry and I know that the cranes must be moving full tilt all the time. It has been months and people inside the industry haven’t figured this out!?!
W.T.F.
would be good to see some action here.
Time to buy containers 😎
TIL most of the Port of Long Beach is robotic vm.tiktok.com/ZM8ABtF8t/ - Also, instinctually it seems that paying people more across-the-board should happen, but I'm guessing between Longshoremen, rail, and trucking, there's some union complexity at play...?
Nope. There's simply no space to put containers because of the local government.
Opening new yards, particularly in useful locations (i.e. SoCal) will require zoning approval->government. I shudder to think how long it would take...
What a profound commentary that would be on the current state of the world...a temporary installation underscoring the fragility of global commerce...stacked 20 high...
If you do, let me know, would love to volunteer a few hours a week to help. Feels similar to everyone who jumped in to help the mask supply chain problem last year.
That is brilliant! :-)
That's extremely clever... Would you be interested in serving a short stint as the mayor of Chicago?
Storage containers can be converted into Tiny Houses to house homeless…
Federal depot's like Yermo with rail spurs, empty land and equipment.
Well if you had land and started today it would only take you 2-3 years to get the permits to open a storage yard.
All we’d need is for an earthquake to come along during that time. Long Beach is NOT solid ground.
Suppose there is an earthquake. A bunch of containers piled six high that fell over in some yard wouldn't even be in the top 100 problems that area would be facing.
We need to return these empties. If we don’t the manufacturers won’t have any to send more stuff. Just piling them up here only causes a bigger issue later on. Cargo ship right now need to be loading more empties than they are unloading full containers to flush them out.
It's said that evergreen has over 1 billion containers in their inventory world wide. The US has 500000 containers in 2 ports, and not all of them belong to evergreen. Sc created an inland port 100 miles away from Charleston and the trains have been non stop 24 hrs a day
If this was a viable solution, private business would be doing it. And it isn't due to regulations.
It's just that there isn't any money in it. Absent a government subsidizing it.
Who is going to pay for the storage of EMPTY containers?
& move homeless into the empties yard…w/ communal ‘container locker rooms’!?!
Maybe silly question, but what is happening to the value of empty containers? I thought the value had been skyrocketing over the last year or so. Has that trend reversed?
Why not rent land outside Long Beach/LA & stack empties there, to free up a thousand chassis? Since you are sizable, do a mini version of what he proposes on your own? Gotta be land available, and I assume traffic lighter than normal due to WFH, etc. Start somewhere / anywhere.
Seems obvious to require emptied container ships to take empty containers home with them? Not depart without full load empty “ Bottle Neck” containers with them.
There is plenty of stuff to put in the containers. The scrap metal industry for one is getting crushed because the steamship lines aren't giving us the ability to ship. And then overseas metal foundries can't get enough scrap to melt and make new products adding to inflation. I
Find more properties to store empties....they don't have to be designated storage yards! There's plenty of empty land just north of L.A. in the desert.
Can you sell the empties for scrap or something?
Then there would be a shortage of containers to bring stuff back. There isn't too many containers in the world. There actually was a shortage 6 months ago in Asia. Steamship lines were sending empties back vs letting exporters load them.
Now they are all coming back full in record numbers making our inefficient port even more inefficient and now at a stand still.
What caused the abnormal accumulation of empty containers ?
The gov gave free money to people who didn't need it so they bought a bunch of crap made overseas so there is a record number of imports and steam ship lines aren't allowing exporters to use empties
Meanwhile an exporter like myself is suffering greatly because we can't get empty containers. This has been going on for 13+ months. It's incredibly frustrating that the government and media are just now deciding it is an issue because xmas is In jeopardy.
Ty for sharing. SEA-TAC port rn, not looking too backed up but I only got a sneak peek.
If you drive the 99 from SEA TAC to Seattle you will see the immense backup. Never seen anything like it.
🙀airport is pretty backed up, too
We have a couple in the Bay in Bellingham just anchored out there waiting for a spot to open up in Seattle or Vancouver.
This is a great thread. Middle part on bottlenecks is good ops thinking. If you remove the current bottleneck, what will the new bottleneck be? Probably not the one you would choose (ie, not the cranes). But, yes, pick a place and start, then repeat.
(No comment)
Im doing the same things but without the a
Do you know the track record of 3-hour boat tours?
Exactly. They're very lucky they made it back.
Bringing the container problem down to basics: Containers aren't freight, they're standardized packaging becoming useless due to disrupted freight flows. The card-house finally toppled.
The government is failing us big time on this
we discussed this briefly in DMs...all that inflation sitting in containers...just waiting to move. Inventory turn <> demand.
good 🧵
Amazing thread
Dissolve CARB regs in California that restrict trucks that run perfectly fine in 49 states from running in Cali
Any turth to this? If trucks are running back and forth on the 15 to NV and back, this seems less than ideal also.
Not ever going to happen, we are moving to a greener earth or haven’t you heard of Greta Thunberg? We can’t backtrack anymore because corporations don’t like losing money. We are talking about the smog levels in the worlds biggest port, hence the regulations required. This bit me
Epidemiologists can calculate the # of additional deaths based on proximity of diesel trucks, coal burning plants, etc., but if a few more people, including longshoremen, have to die prematurely so that the rest of the country can buy plastic toys from China, why not?
Typical b******* conservative anti-climate solution that solves absolutely nothing. cool.
can't wait for all the existing order to collapse and back to hunting & gathering where these weak leftists will have no chance
California doesn't want to go back to the smog of the 60s - 70's
No, but they’ll gladly settle for the supply and goods shortages of the Stone Age.
My, a bit of overreacting here.
So do it for 120 days. I lived in the '70s smog. It wasn't caused mainly by the ports, though they contributed. Main cause was millions of pre-catalytic converter automobiles. Today's cars and trucks (49-state models included) pollute (vs. emit) FAR less than pre-1980s versions.
It wouldn’t happen. Emissions are way down. A few months wouldn’t cause a problem. Of course the watermelons would freak out and we know hairgel won’t do anything to piss them off.
For 90 days
If they restrictions are lifted temporarily, you won’t need to worry about it. 120 days.
Those same trucks are running in the other 49 states without smog problems. If you think that emissions haven’t improved since the 60’s then you know nothing about current truck emissions.
You weren’t here for the smog. We aren’t going back to that.
LA has unique geography that makes it worse. There's a circle of mountains and all the shit gets bottlenecked there instead of passing over LA into the desert/inland areas.
California is about to go back to the 1860s if it can't deal with freight logistics Steve.
When ur local stores run out of groceries and shit goes south you beg for smog may even try to eat it
California would be a lovely war zone
Where the 🍿
Just need to move ports cut California out of the loop
Not surprised the jam up is in California nothing but pure incompetence
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an EPA Settlement With DOT is What’s Creating The Container Shipping Backlog
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What's Creating The Container Shipping Backlog - Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here's Why - The Last Refuge
Hundreds of requests for details on the specifics of the container shipping backlog. So, I spent 3 days calling sources, digging for details and gathering information on the substantive issue at hand. The epicenter of the problem is not what is being outlined by financial media, corporate media and politicians who have a specific interest […]
theconservativetreehouse.com
Most of these restrictions are not even in effect yet and they are not the problem.
Here's the new CARB guidance for heavy diesel trucks.
I own a small trucking company, over half of Owner Operators that I know will not go to California because of environmental regulations, fuel prices, and a nazi like d.o.t. force.
49 other states need to catch their trucks up to CARB. Refineries can make CARB fuels, and trucks can run on them. CARB fuels just cost a teensy bit more, and R&Ms don’t give a crap about dirty air or water if there’s an extra penny to make.
I'm sure they'll take your advice right away, random Twitter user with 10 followers.
So do something that doesn't solve the problem as stated? Brilliant.
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an EPA Settlement With DOT is What’s Creating The Container Shipping Backlog
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What's Creating The Container Shipping Backlog - Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here's Why - The Last Refuge
Hundreds of requests for details on the specifics of the container shipping backlog. So, I spent 3 days calling sources, digging for details and gathering information on the substantive issue at hand. The epicenter of the problem is not what is being outlined by financial media, corporate media and politicians who have a specific interest […]
theconservativetreehouse.com
thoughts on this?
This one action will make someone a hero: @POTUS Just do it. Come on!
) Executive order effective immediately over riding the zoning rules in Long Beach and Los Angeles to allow truck yards to store empty containers up to six high instead of the current limit of 2. Make temp.
First we have to determine the pronouns of the containers.
And, of course, deal with the privileges of the white containers
Sorry, I don't understand. The pronoun for an inanimate object is it/they. Not sure where the ambiguity is.
Be gentle they only have one joke
I despair. Because your idea is so common sense and doable, I fear government will treat it like kryptonite.
POTUS has no Constitutional power to override local regulations unilaterally. Governor might.
(No comment)
You should touch on what incentive structures could be put into place. Who’s paying who what?
After speaking with 10 drayage carriers in L.A. this week I can say this is very accurate. Our company is getting killed on demurrage right now because of the chassis shortage. Carriers saying its so difficult to schedule empty container return appointments - everything is broken
We are being forced to pay $300 - $350 per day / per container to the port terminals, but options to get our containers picked up are extremely limited right now. Terminals should also be banned from charging these demurrage fees until the chassis-shortage situation is resolved.
Are there any downsides / costs to this to the terminals?
Probably none that are worse than a total collapse of the port
No, I mean does the port still profit as much the way things are right now & thus have no incentive to change?
Put these empty containers out in the desert and make the shippers pay to get them back!
It's the friggin' unions. If carriers are saying it's so difficult to schedule empty container return appointments then put those things in the desert and make the carriers pay to get them back.
For Oakland you wouldn't need to rent a boat, just check the daily timelapse in our Twitter feed :)
So informative, thanks man. and godspeed
Preach!!!
would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Great thread 👍🏼
A 3 hour tour? 🙃
You should follow only one person but it should be @PeteButtigieg
this is up your alley. Thread from CEO of @flexport
Saw it yes. Incredible.
I still don’t understand the chassis / empty container issue. How does it work in normal times?
you ROCK for doing this. So awesome, so helpful. thank you!
Amazing how much you can learn by physically looking at things... Very well written 🧵
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the… . This issue was masterfully covered on The Daily podcast by @petersgoodman
The Daily: The Great Supply Chain Disruption on Apple Podcasts
Show The Daily, Ep The Great Supply Chain Disruption - Oct 15, 2021
podcasts.apple.com
Who's going to ask @PressSec and @PeteButtigieg and @POTUS and @GavinNewsom to get this done - come on people we elected you to be competent. get this done ASAP!
The competent part is where the answer went sideways. Government causes tenfold more problems than it solves
But please don't dump containers in neighborhoods like some people have been doing. Blocking driveways and emergency services. That has to stop. @BigRandyNLU @TronCarterNLU @man_integrated
I feel like a nation that once put a man on the surface of the moon really ought to be able to solve the problem of the empty shipping containers. :(
We are building robot police dogs instead. The people that worked on the moon work for defense contractors now
The rockets were always part of defense contractors, if anything the space program was a side effect.
NASA didn’t have to deal with a city council passing zoning that severely limited what they could do.
Bureaucrats are in the way. It always starts with someone’s ego not allowing things to get done.
You're close to getting it. The moon landing was socialist af: publicly funded, not-for-profit exploration. Global shipping, meanwhile, is pure capitalism and there's always going to be pushback against the government stepping in to untangle private industry's mess.
Zoning laws preventing container storage is an example of a market failure? Federal laws on unions making longshoremen unaccountable is an example of a market failure?
O/T, I love that you made Bandit your avatar. G'day from Australia 🇦🇺
Fascinating that Auburn University @RuralStudio and others have figured out how to make affordable housing out of shipping containers - and CA has thousands of homeless Americans living within a few miles of the port.
The weather started getting rough. Your tiny shipped was tossed. If not for the courage of the fearless crew your vessel would be lost!
So f’d up
Fantastic thread.
Can you help me understand what caused all of this in the first place?
First clear explanation of the issues I’ve read anywhere. Why doesn’t the gd @WSJ report like this?
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Temp loosen TWIC reqs for drivers? Are they allowing hotshots?
It was either scrolling though or reading them all. I didn’t have time for both #novel
(No comment)
Great read.
I’d suggest getting the national guard involved to assist. It seems logical.
Fantastic post and great window into the issues. This needs to be reported in a factual manner so it engages municipal, state, federal agencies and private operators in what’s needed to overcome the logjam.
Great thread. Thanks. It is the car wash scenario that process improvement guys talk about. Deeming was the creator of process improvement. Got to map the process and attack it with a vengeance to get situation under control.
Hasn’t this been the system for a while, though? Why is it bottlenecking right now? Has a policy changed? Not enough exports (hence the pileup of empty, unised containers)?
Super complicated, but the simple answer is globally distributed supply chains, terms, and a pandemic causing both supply and demand shocks screwed up the ports.
Greed. People were profiting off of unloading and selling those goods and didn’t want to waste time refilling them. Now it’s catching up to us.
(No comment)
1) is this problem systemic across ALL US Ports or just Long Beach/POLA? 2) what role, if any, do you think private sector real estate professionals / land owners can do to help (know you mentioned gov’mt land).
We know you're on paternity leave, but maybe you could forward this to the right person? It makes a lot of sense.
Help this man if time allows!
Do containers need to remain in circulation or can they be used for alternate purposes (e.g., CA buys empty containers and makes temp housing, sell for scrap metal, etc.). Do containers need to be transported by chassis or can they go on a flatbed (like wide-load pre-fab houses)?
Seacans can only do so many round trips before they are unusable. They have a hard life. A lot of them get scrapped after they are no longer sea-worthy. They can go on flatbeds but can be overheight depending on the trailer and the container.
They are expensive
Thoughtful solutions that should be implemented immediately
Sailed two barges this last week from Seattle’s Terminal 18 to Canada. 231 loads when finished on this one.
Each PNW Port has issues. I’m Seattle and we are draying cans on the weekends to non working container terminals for storage. Terminal 5 and 46 are storage. This week is eleven days straight working.
Good thread. Thanks 🤝🇺🇸💪
Great thread, Ryan! Also, how much of the slowdown at ports would you say is due to a lack of longshoremen? That's a trade that usually pays pretty well, and I'm wondering if ports have the same worker shortage as low-paying professions due to the danger of the job + the pandemic
A three hour tour… sounds familiar
Great thread and information. Isn't it fascinating that the bottleneck is essentially regulatory in nature? These restrictions inhibit the ability of the system to run at maximum throughput. Regulatory structures should have built-in flexibility for emergency scenarios.
But what’s the underlying reason for the zoning? If it’s a safety issue, then I’m not saying don’t make changes, but do so carefully and safely
Cost/benefit analysis in emergencies sir. That's why insurance exists.
I'm betting it's a safety issue, especially since this is earthquake country, and not little tiny ones.
It's virtually GUARANTEED to be a safety & liability issue.
Regulations are written in the blood of people who were killed or maimed by businesses who valued money over safety.
It's entirely made up. There's no legal limit to stacking containers. No clue where he got that number, Longbeach is full of yards stacked at least six high.
Interesting.
Stack height limits are determined by weight and a yard's ability to lift or pick to/from those heights. A 2 stack limit tells me that the yard has very limited lift equipment.
Or has no incentive to acquire equipment that the zoning won't let it use.
Very true, and with that zoning, it makes sense that most truck hards aren’t in Longbeach, so the impact of changing it won’t have much effect unless they can manage to build more truck yards in Longbeach.
It seems sensible that overriding limits isn't a long-term solution, but in the short run allowing a yard to triple its capacity if it can (from 2 high to six) is tripling their storage. If that's 1,000 containers, it's 1,000 freed trucks. More than zero,
If it were safety, shouldn't the code just require extra adjacent space in case of a collapse?
It probably is safety, but as all regulations, it assumes there is no other way to achieve safety.
This was my first question too. I don't know enough about zoning in Long Beach to agree or disagree but I'd guess the local communities would provide the best input on whether or not lifting zoning and /or CARB regs would not subject them to further harm.
“Visual amenity”
Probably aesthetic
Honestly, it sounds like you've never been to a zoning hearing of any type.
“Safety” is the sort of thing NIMBYs and private organizations glom on to in order to ward off stuff they don't like.
Aren’t containers stacked 5-10 high at sea? 2 high sounds like a NIMBY eyesore issue, not safety.
Regulations have been there for years and never caused this issue, now that the issue exists it's compounded by the regulations. This is the market falling to regulate itself -as allways- and beggin the government to bail it out when shit hits the fan -as allways-.
Are you serious? How can you say this is the markets fault when the government is the one who put these regulations in place and are the ones preventing yard owners from doing the things necessary to fix their problems.
The clue is in his first sentence "Regulations have been there for years and never caused this issue". 🤦♂️
Because the cause of this crisis is not a container stacking regulation that has been in place for decades. Is impossible to fit half an explanation for this epic logistical failure on a single tweet, but you would have to be such a dense libertarian to write it of to regulations
Maybe when you dump regulation after regulation onto people over the years it eventually becomes near impossible for people to innovate their ways out of the red tape.
Just stop buddy. You're humiliating yourself. This is not the right time for that argument. Try again on another issue.
Also ignoring the fact this is happening -everywhere-, in countries with little regulation as well.
Reading's not your strong suit, is it, honey?
Will you support a President that removes all regulations?
Except as this thread points out, just stacking the containers higher is not going to fix this problem. He's calling on a number of other government actions that the private industry would not be able to take. There's plenty to criticize about regulation, but this ain't it.
Then how is it an issue now but not prior?
odd and strangely comparable to the ripple situation?
Not a surprise. Every tweak to a regulation has an impact and California is a regulation leader. Housing, fuel, trucking, empty container storage.
And look at the results. Fifth largest economy in the world.
Good point Chris Schwarz
Best commentary I’ve read so far on the supply chain crisis
Complex issue which will have far reaching impact on transportation links in the country and impact cost for all - businesses and consumers. What will help and will need some time is this-We need to introduce what is ‘en-bloc’ movement of cntrs from terminal 1/2
2/2 en-bloc movement means all containers have to be moved within 48 hours of landing to a nearby off dock. All empties have to be returned to the off dock as well. This will ease the congestion in the terminal in both directions. The challenge? to create new offdock capacity.
Great info any at forst glance I ask this one question to start. Are there any other ports around the world facing the same off load issue of containers as LB? I know many ports are slammed with empties buy not the issue like LB.
i've read the whole thread and all I understood was economy going to crash so crypto up only right sir?
- great thread for you both to read.
You sound more like a systems engineer than a CEO! Just sayin'.
If only more CEOs could sound like systems engineers.
You went on a 3 hour tour? On a boat?
Were you at all concerned about the weather getting rough?
Hahahahaha we thought the same damn thing
They went around the the harbor Ginger-ly indulging in some M̶a̶r̶y̶J̶a̶n̶e̶ MaryAnne.
We all thought the same thing. Hopefully he packed enough suitcases for years worth of supplies, because you never know how those three hour tours will end up. 😃
Especially with the CrAzY weather in Southern California. Whew scary
Was there a millionaire on board?
Castaway on Terminal Island... Ginger had it better.
In case you were serious (and not cosplaying Gilligans Isle) It's SoCal, the Pacific west coast is pretty calm most of the time.
I’d be more worried about getting stuck in the bottleneck
(Possibly sensitive)
please read
Hi @ArbiterAtl, Read this thread in a single post by typesfast: 'Yesterday I rented a boat and took the leader of one of Flexport's partners in L...'
Read This Full Thread By Ryan Petersen (@typesfast)
Yesterday I rented a boat and took the leader of one of Flexport's partners in Long Beach on a 3 hour of the port complex. Here's a thread about what I lea…
mythreadreader.com
Great post Ryan. Hoping someone important enough pays attention to it. Thanks for sharing
nice thread.
what a shocker...govt cant solve the problem they caused.
Fantastic breakdown with solution.
The solution isn’t a mystery. Obviously the govt knows what to do to fix.
So the question becomes, why are they *creating* this issue?
Lol, you're off your head. You're not wrong, corporate interests totally weaken governments, by essentially controlling them, but to then make the leap to say it's a rope-a-dope plot to trick everyone into allowing government take-over?!
I want some of what you're smoking.
How many logistics experts does the gov't employ? Mr Peterson is not a gov't employee, moreover there's no guarantee he's right. Plus, is gov't supposed to step in when the free market fails?
Don't get me wrong, Peterson is probably on target - but there's no conspiracy.
Gun to head I'd say 3 scenarios (or combination):
1) Govt legitimately is clueless, I find this hard to believe.
2) Govt trying to give time to allow US manuf'g to reshore production.
3) Monopoly firms (powerful entities) like these price spikes.
Oh it's definitely intentional the better question is why
That can be a very dark path indeed
Spooky assertions without evidence or even a motive is just blowing smoke. Not that there aren't various groups that are happy about it, but there are a lot more that aren't.
So this is what it's like to be asleep for last 18 months 😴
Thing are going to keep getting worse just the tip of iceberg
Whatever...
At what point does the incompetence stop being accidental
Cause the pattern here couldn't be more obvious
Everyone will see it eventually
If there is anything I am convinced of is that people see far more patterns than actually exist. Well known bias. As someone who punctures such assumptions IRL, I'm used to accepting data without jumping to conclusions. Give data or you don't really understand it.
Money talks.
Govt = plutocracy.
That's the pertinent data.
I don't believe that the "govt is a bumbling bureaucracy" is the answer here. We can agree to disagree.
No Gov't agencies is designed to tackle this sort of issue. Few organizations exist more resistant to change than a gov't beaurocracy, whose role tends to be strictly defined and limited by regulation/litigation. That's not anti Gov't, that's realism about big organizations.
The free market didn't rule that containers cannot be stacked more than two high. The free market didn't close down the economies worldwide.
No but as referenced in the article, accommodations could be made, especially this far into the problem. So the question becomes, why/how is the problem being supported. I'm not one for conspiracies, but the fact that this problem is being ignored seems obvious by now.
Well my comment was aimed at the person responding to you who suggests its the free market who is the cause of this problem. I say it's the government that is at fault and they should be doing a LOT more to solve it. But governments are not good at that.
What makes you think the gov't caused this? They didn't put in place the logistics networks that literally thousands of companies have put in place to move goods globally. Nor did they fail to respond adequately when conditions changed.
I don't believe the free market demanded lockdowns.
The free market is supposed to be agile and respond to such situations - much like the iceland volcano several years back. Did lockdowns and in general all sorts of pandemic disruptions make that more difficult? Of course. They also were doing their best to save lives.
Right, the lockdowns made things more difficult & you have just acknowledged that it was indeed the government that caused this. You can go on & on about an agile free market but the original thread explains that local govt rules have been making matters even worse. Good grief
Sure the gov't was one cause. Not the sole cause, nor even the most important cause. You haven't acknowledged the same with respect to container demand imbalances, nor with huge changes in supply/demand dynamics across that supply chains failed to respond to. Good grief.
How the hell could those supply chains respond effectively when most of those workers were forced to stay at home by the government? Jfc you are just trolling at this point 🙄
The state of California has caused a lot of this, one by restricting how older model trucks can't come into the ports, they restricted the age of the trucks running the highways, placing regulations on Owner Operators saying they needed to be in a certain category
The free market is supposed to be far more agile and adaptable than the government. Now we hear something different.... that government changing some long in-place restrictions will enable the free market to solve the issue. My point is that it's not one or the other.
Ryan Peterson is seeking cheap puplicity for his startup company and probably trying to solicit venture money in the of new business opportunities in ports.
Port congestion problem can only solved by port community stakeholders.
I have been holding back on this point... Peterson is talking his book. I suspect there is a lot of truth in your comment.
Well if Gov puts up artifical limits on how many containers you can stack on your land it has limited the free market no?
California state policy is absolutely causing the bottleneck
The problem is that the market isn't free. Theres all kinds of regulations and restrictions which limit how things can be done
"The free market fails" because of previous govt action! This is a knock-on effect of COVID shutdowns.
Oh, just STOP
Piling up empties here to the sky creates a bigger problem in the long run because the manufacturers need these containers to load back up to send more goods here. If we don’t send them back in at least the same rate we get full boxes there will be shortages where they load them
Lol, the all-powerful government is behind this...
As an outside observer (UK) I think that this is cock up rather than conspiracy. Also, having worked in the US, I would politely suggest that your Unions have way too much power in these scenarios
If the govt knew what to do to fix, I don't think President Biden would just go and wag some fingers at non-union companies like WalMart and Target and think that's gonna work.
@threadrraderapp unroll
Great thread. One question, though - why are empty containers so expensive to buy now? We bought two 20’s for storage and they were nearly &3k a piece north of SF$. Used to be $1-1.5k not long ago.
Asking myself the exact same question. Shouldn’t empty 20’ be going at a steep discount?
1/You don’t need chassis alone to move containers. Regular flatbeds and step decks as well as double drop trailers can load containers. If the ports and CARB would temporarily lift their restrictions you can bring in assets from all over the country to help move capacity
2/ ports need to also temporarily lift port access requirements for the above trucks. Move everything under FEMA authority so you don’t have to worry about gross weight restrictions. There are ways to do this without needing the National Guard.
I’m being offered to move containers on a flatbed from Tacoma WA to Illinois for $9K, other drivers would gladly take those loads
Plus, A lot more jobless police, hcw & firefighters are out of work....
Get all the people who don't want to vaccinate and work, into something like this *quickly*!!
The national guard could be used as logistic managers and maintain the container yards and move containers around... Just like during an emergency.
They don't need to do long haul, just keep shit organized while civilian truckers haul it out.
They would be up to their asses in truckers looking for loads in a day. Great idea!
Agreed! In my photo I'm in a cab with a flatbed and a container.
detta kan nog vara lite intressant läsning för dig när du har tid 🙂
Tack för tipset! Följer honom slaviskt sen ett tips jag fick för några dagar sen.
shouldn’t one of your team be on point for unlocking this bottleneck?
Yeah what you mentioned should be enough to alleviate the yard capacity bottleneck. Then the next bottleneck should be in manpower.
It's stunning how textbook this problem is and how little is being done. Everybody sitting around with their mouth open
What used to happen to the empty containers? Why are there more now than in the past?
They went back, sometimes loaded, often not. There isn't space at the port to take them off the chassis and stack them until they can be loaded because it's full of inbound loaded containers.
Your plan makes too much sense. There's no way we will act on it.
Can you please pass this idea on the the big guy? Thanks
did you omit the word because you just couldn't bring yourself to write out, "a 3 hour tour" ?
Ey man he @typesfast it's in the name chill
just sit right back...
Supply chain started getting rough/container ships were tossed/if not for the courage to stack empties high/economies are lost/global economy lost... the ships unload on the ports too fast/with too few chassis trucked/without quick plans to clear the block/we all are truly fucked
(Ok now this thread is set to the tune of Gilligan’s Island, but I’m powering through)
Good summary of the boat ride, unfortunately the solutions on the flip side...many won’t work. The port of LA and LB are simply the “end of the line”, a symptom of what is happening further up the supply chain.
Agreed. If this isn’t accurate then tell us something better.
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an EPA Settlement With DOT is What’s Creating The Container Shipping Backlog
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What's Creating The Container Shipping Backlog - Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here's Why - The Last Refuge
Hundreds of requests for details on the specifics of the container shipping backlog. So, I spent 3 days calling sources, digging for details and gathering information on the substantive issue at hand. The epicenter of the problem is not what is being outlined by financial media, corporate media and politicians who have a specific interest […]
theconservativetreehouse.com
Finally, an accurate no BS assessment! Thank you for this!
Very good observations and solutions !!! We need to make these things happen !
good biz-ops thread. thanks for sharing, Ryan
Nominate @typesfast for secretary of transportation
“I’ll never go on a three-hour tour again.” SS Minnow
y’all should do a story on Ryan’s plan
Great thread. The book “The Goal” talks about this solution in detail as it relates to focusing on the weakest link in your process to improve your overall solution. All hands on deck to clear the bottle neck!!!!
Yes great book and exactly what I think of in this situation.
Amazing thread. Thank you.
Using Government’s slow incompetence as a feature to bring about your Reset. 🤷♂️
Can the ship not float on down the coast to another yard and unload? Last time I looked, we are surrounded by water on three sides. 🤷
this guy laid out how this was going to happen way back a year ago and has a plan to fix it: @man_integrated
Talk to him
Seconded, he seems to be the guy who really really knows his shit
Would it be too much to ask if you ran for president?
(No comment)
Fantastic thread. Thank you Ryan.
I tried, in vain, to find handles for White House senior advisors and DOT officials but emails are readily available
Saw an article about this recently, looks to be exactly the same:
Lazy crane operators making $250,000 a year exacerbating port crisis, truckers say
LONG BEACH, California — Crane operators who belong to a powerful union and earn up to $250,000 a year transferring containers from ships to trucks are worsening the supply chain crisis that threatens Christmas by goofing off on the job, frustrated truckers told the Washington Examiner.
yahoo.com
Living the blame game.
Great thread. Curious what caused the bottleneck of empty containers as the system used to be in balance?
Flexport sounds like a port run by body builders and crossfitters.
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This should be a priority
Reload empties back to ship and put on sea, waiting, while the problem is getting under control...I.e. new yard space = sea, New chassis=ship.?
Excellent thread. Thank you for helping us to understand the problem and the solution.
Great thread
So if I want to build a cheap container house, they will give them to me free? 😏
So when Capitalism breaks down it's socialism (National Guard) to the rescue?
I think the point here is removing regulation to solve the problem.
Regulations or not you still need the troops.
But socialism causes the break down… like that old story of a fireman running around lighting fires to put them out.
Pretty much, yes.
The national guard is not socialism
You haven't been paying attention. Govt money sloshing all of over the place since the pandemic started. Just because your federal rep isn't there to hand it to you doesn't mean it's not the federal govt handing it out.
Government equals socialism? 🤔
that is the way it is supposed to work! totally free capitalism needs a referee , overseer to smooth things out. but only in extreme cases.
Government regulations limiting container stacking in LB is the problem. Regulations are the problem. Government is the problem. Without Capitalism you wouldn’t even be able to fund Government. Government produces nothing of value and only extracts value You have no clue do you?
Let's get leaders on top of this situation to drive action!
When Pete gets back from breast-feeding his kid, he'll solve it
This guy has some good idea of what the supply chain backup problem is and some good ideas for solutions, eg. Have trains move containers to a storage areas where trucks can get them.
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(No comment)
Did the weather start getting rough?
I say we need to give up on California and reroute all container ships through Texas and Florida Ports. California is broken and cannot be fixed.
Ah yes the guy with no knowledge of global trade has finally figured it out. You have solved it. Everyone can quit worrying now.
I know CPAs aren’t exactly geniuses but surely you have a rough idea of where China is and where California Texas and Florida are.
East/Gulf coast ports are already at capacity too genius.
finally someone willing to step up and identify something that's not the problem
It takes a brave man.
The port of Oakland has unused capacity, and it's much closer than Texas and Florida ... and there isn't a canal with size restrictions in between them, too.
Oakland blew up 3 months ago. Shippers stopped going there in volume. They had too many ships sitting in Monterrey Bay.
Best at Covid, massive surplus... there's a reason people hate on CA. twitter.com/maxtaves/statu…
Conservatives are obsessed with California for a reason:
The state’s successes defy virtually everything their worldview predicts.
For conservatism to succeed, California has to fail.
My essay in today’s @sacbee_news explains why:
sacbee.com/opinion/op-ed/… h/t @SacBeeEditBoard
Newsom sailed past the recall because he literally had the lowest COVID rate in the nation and Republicans threatened to undo that.
You know Newsom sailed through his recall because unlike those of you in the other 49 who mainline right wing media, us Californians can just walk out our door and see the truth for ourselves, right?
There’s bad stuff happening everywhere. I was just in Phoenix and there’s homeless people begging at every freeway exit. But everyone has to hate on California.
Oh yeah, and I was thrilled to go back home to CA.
Have you tried turning it off and back on?
Oh, isn’t that a cute little idea. Sure, we’ll just send all these ships through the Panama Canal to Texas.
That doesn’t work. There is an intermodal system in place in CA to handle the majority of the cargo. But the shipping lines stopped going IM for about 6 weeks and now we are fully clogged. And CA is where a lot of the outbounds originate.
Intermodal facilities also exist at the other ports mentioned.
Not that are worth a shit.
LOL, somebody with an anti-CA bent talking out of his ass
The port of Oakland has capacity. The problem ultimately that the just-in-time mindset is efficient and works well but doesn't handle large disruptions. SoCal shipping is broken because they are hitting various bottlenecks.
I suppose you've never seen a map of the world?
I say you're a lunatic.
You’re funny. But you’re not.
Can’t decide if this is an ill-informed or uninformed reply.
Those ports don’t have the capacity. Neither do the ones on the east coast. Pretty much everyone is working close to max capacity it’s just that California is the bib best therefore has the biggest problems for the most part.
Yeah. Now wouldn’t be bad but during Hurricane season that would be a disaster
That won’t be cost effective. Just need to strip all the ports from California and put it under federal control, because it is simply impacting ppl’s lives in maybe 40+ states.
If a ship is coming from China, or anywhere in Asia, it really needs to go to the West Coast. Yes, there's the Panama Canal, but that has size restrictions. So the only real alternatives are Oregon and Washington, but you also need to consider intermodal connections.
are people really THAT dumb in the government?
The obvious Bottleneck is the government and yet you look to the government to fix the problem.
Thanks for the insight. After bring in manufacturing for over 30 years this makes perfect sense. My only thing to add would be to check your assumption that the government wants this solved 🤔
Many of these companies have lost a LOT of revenue since COVID shut everything down. From my perspective, this problem didn’t exist before, and “see the problem, solve the problem” entrepreneurs could easily solve the problem were it not for greed.
Slow the supply chain. Create fear of loss. Demand goes up. Supply is slowed. Prices and profit respond accordingly. If “they” wanted this problem solved, it would be solved. Just sayin’
This whole situation has been caused by regulations. NOT a virus. The virus was not at all deadly enough to impact our economy. Politicians crashed the economy then printed more money for their friends. Ports and many other unintended consequences, because politicians played god
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Brilliant solution!
An idea for you, instead of doing all this, get some welding torches, cut up all the empty containers and recycle the materials. Creates space, chassis empty, no empty containers to move.
And, no future deliveries to ever worry about. So no trade imbalance. Of course, farmers might not like this. Or consumers. Or companies without products. Or laid off employees. Or landlords. Or …
We don’t have a shortage of shipping containers.
We don't here but they do in China where all our stuff comes from. They need to go back or the next problem will be waiting on inventory to arrive right ahead of Christmas.
There quite literally is a shortage of empty containers in China right now.
Or really recycle them which is sending them back to China to be refilled.
Gilligan's island
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At least someone’s got a plan. Stay on it Ryan - lot of people depending on this issue resolving
Great thread and a great example to teach someone Theory of Constraints.
Amazing thread.. though I can say without irony that Trump would have probably fixed this..
yeah, he would have sunk the container ships and said what problem ?
Trump doesn't know anything about shipping. If he had attempted a shipping company it would have joined the long list of his failed enterprises...like Trump Air.
Yeah he wouldn’t have solved it because he is a logistical genius.. he would have solved it because he understands supply chains.. just see how Operation Warp Speed played out.. the guy is nuts and lacks vision but he out executed politicians.. and Joe is as average as it gets
Lmao. This is the most hilarious thing I’ve read on the Internet today.
How about “Trump would have had his administration prioritize this” (and then take all the credit.) I have no confidence that “he alone could solve it,” but I think his staff would elevate it more than the current one does.
An alien could fix this easily.
stiffing contractors and still going bankrupt is not going to fix this
No irony huh?
The guy who showed up to island entirely overwhelmed by hurricane who did a photo op and throwing paper towels to a crowd?
The guy who kept Americans on coronavirus cruise ships instead of getting them to the hospital because he wanted to fake the numbers.?
Do tell us what angry tweet would have fixed this?
and @GavinNewsom listen up 🙏👍🙃
Wow. Very interesting. I hope this gets traction.
great thread re supply chain issues
You do have to wonder.
Ie.
The lumber shortage
Last year in Australia, same same.
But
I was tuned into a talk back radio show when a lady who lived in a timber logging area rang in.
She said, there’s no shortage, we have heaps, truck just arent picking it up
Is any of this strategy as presented viable? @SecretaryPete @VP @PortofLA Seroka and Porcari @MarioCorderoLB @GavinNewsom @MayorOfLA @LongBeachMayor
Please leave The Sec of Transportation out of this. He is on paternity leave.
Maybe if they hired @DP_World stuff would be actually moving.
Awesome thread here!
we need to add this to the list with the NYH tug boat tour
Leeeeggggooo
Excellent info from Ryan Petersen @typesfast completely ignored by media. CA ports are drowning in red, socialist tape.
The port + supply chain crisis appears largely mfg by bureaucrats
My takeaway is that business and economists running spreadsheets might keep forgetting to consider the finite size of facilities, dynamics (bottlenecks), and your suggestions remind us that the line between private business and govt support (mobilize national gaurd) is blurry.
Unions need to be taken into hand.
this is very important must read/do.
Naval college report of Chinese owned American Ports. digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewconten…
What is @GavinNewsom doing? Not reading this series of tweets.#LosAngeles @CAgovernor #FridayVibes #FridayMotivation
The idea that the Biden administration is competent enough to do anything is a complete pipe dream. We're all screwed because our society is too dysfunctional to maintain a supply chain any longer.
Ryan, you may like this: WSJ hired a helicopter to film exactly what you're describing.
Personally I find the footage just amazing.
On The News - What America's Supply-Chain Backlog Looks Like Up Close
California’s Port of Los Angeles is struggling to keep up with the crush of cargo containers arriving at its terminals, creating one of the biggest choke points
wsj.com
Great, keep digging. This is the only economic story that matters til it's fixed.
This is because the stupid Wall Street players outsourced all our manufacturing to the slaves in Asia and now we are going to pay the price
Please get a hold of @RonaldKlain !
cc @PaulPage please tell Matt you need to requisition some more reporters? :)
The White House’s point person on ports is urging Congress to wrap negotiations on a $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill and roughly $2 trillion tax and spending measure to help address a supply-chain crunch
Biden’s Port Czar Urges Congress to Act on Infrastructure Bills
The White House’s point person on ports is urging Congress to wrap negotiations on a $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill and roughly $2 trillion tax and spending measure to help address a supply-chain crunch that has delayed goods for millions of consumers.
bloomberg.com
Tax money moving to their pockets, simple and easy. Ya'll thought 9/11, covid was the end? Now they do it in plain sight.
Enjoy the ride. Things getting very wild.
for the empty yards, duh
that video shows boxes stacked 4 or 5 high. Is that a different yard than the one that you referenced only being allowed to stack 2 high?
Yes at the port terminal they can be stacked but not in truck yards off site
That sounds like something that could be fixed pretty easily if anyone is using their head over there.
Does it feel like anyone is in charge and would be authorized to make a decision like that?
The worlds second largest economy’s housing bubble is bursting at the seems and they can’t keep electricity flowing to their factories. It’s also a pretty big deal that no one is talking about.
Good point
What about rail roads? They should be able to haul the empty containers.
Seems they manufactured their energy crisis with “green” initiatives. Who knows what’s really happening behind the scenes. CCP controls everything - biz operate at the pleasure of the CCP. They’re playing art of war on a whole different strategic level
I am not aware of what you're talking about.
That would be China
Not being critical, just awareness.
Not being critical, just awareness.
Make no mistakes.... It's about to be a BIG deal
This book seems very appropriate at this time.
The Goal (novel) - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.m.wikipedia.org
needs a Presidential Address on this from Oval Office asap.
Start limiting the number of huge ships bringing in containers....keep them out of the Santa Barbara Channel...it's decimating wildlife.
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Seems everything is going exactly according to the plan to hinder global trading as much as possible. Reason? Who knows, who knows...🙄
I am wondering how fast the @USACEHQ Army Corps of Engineers could alleviate the issue with the empties enough to at least get things flowing again, if they were tasked with doing so. This seems like the type of emergency situation they might be able to help with, doesn't it?
This tweet touches on that.
twitter.com/typesfast/stat…
2) Bring every container chassis owned by the national guard and the military anywhere in the US to the ports and loan them to the terminals for 180 days.
LA should temporarily open both sides of the 710 freeway to truck traffic only from 9 pm to 5 am until this backlog is cleared.
Happening in UK and European ports too. No space for contrs. Ships being turned away. Trucks/chassis booked up for weeks.
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Somewhere out there in one of those crates is the Xbox Series X I am destined for someday.
why not a drone? seems like a waste of helicopter pilot and cameraman
Probably is a drone…
wow what a video.
I told him, no pics it didn’t happen
Paywall.
so sad
good video
Thank for sharing, truly amazing.
It's is a planned slow down. But there's plenty of Chinese crap around to buy already. The unions don't want their employees to be smart.
I cant believe more people aren't talking about this. WTH is going on!?!
This makes sense! Why is it not being done? Thank you for this.
This is terrific... and terrifying that the CEO of a supply chain company has just now discovered the bottleneck. Better late than never but, you know, early is still better than late.
Excellent thread!
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Great thread, thank you
He’s not wrong. This is basic operations
Well this was more interesting than a memorial service, too.
There was an idea a few years ago about building a maglev freight system that would be like a giant conveyor belt from Long Beach to Victorville. It would get all the container and truck congestion away from the port. Not a quick fix, though.
Ports considering maglev trains to cut smog
Officials see magnetic levitation technology as a clean, high-speed way to move goods inland, ease traffic congestion and reduce pollution.
latimes.com
No reason the port has to actually be on the edge of the land.
If only @GavinNewsom and @POTUS would do SOMETHING. Any one single thing from your plan. Instead, day by day, they choose not to act on this crisis. It’s unbelievable.
FWIW if you're near LB and want to see it without renting a boat, Signal Hill is a great vantage point. But honestly you can see it from any beach and it's obviously been getting worse.
Who do I call?
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Thank you for this public thread, very enlightening.
At the risk of missing the point, this is another anecdote for why we should consume less. You don’t need much more than a couple pairs of jeans, shirts, and sturdy shoes. Get books from the library. Own less junk.
And you suggest mandating this?
Or... or... we could start producing stuff here. Though I mostly agree with you.
Go deeper and force designers and manufacturers to make products that last longer so consumers are not forced to change things so often (tools, cars, appliances, clothing etc…) of course it’ll lead to other debates but it’s another conversation.
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-very interesting read here, on several levels.
Thisis the way the world ends,
Not with a Bang but a Shunter
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Surely, if 10 people in powerful positions read this thread…the solutions could start rolling…it seems we know how. Who are the 10 people with the power?
get your shit together and get this done
Allow truck & container thieves a free run at the gummed up ports for a while.
They'll clear things up quick.
All those goods will enter the US economy at some other location & price point. Outside of Corporate/Government control.
twitter.com/skommana1/stat…
If regular supply chain is gummed up, use unorthodox means to degum it.
Let truck & container thieves have their day in the sun.
twitter.com/skommana1/stat…
Bitcoin solves this
Hi Ryan, what is the underlying cause of this bottleneck? Is it massive demand from us consumer? If not how come we did not see this pre covid?
The only other thing I can think of is people hoarding in anticipation of more shortage or inflation? Like we all got paper towels in Covid, it’s not like we used them more? Any thoughts?
It's the unions...longshoremen etc.
Wrong did you not read anything written it is empty containers caused by lack of storage not longshoremen not teamsters. It’s government regulation.
This is happening -everywhere- dude, not just in union shops.
Did you read his thread? There's no place for them to put the containers. If the longshoremen have no where to unload the containers, there's nothing they can do. The problem is getting the containers out of the port. They need rail and trucks and there aren't enough.
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an EPA Settlement With DOT is What’s Creating The Container Shipping Backlog
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What's Creating The Container Shipping Backlog - Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here's Why - The Last Refuge
Hundreds of requests for details on the specifics of the container shipping backlog. So, I spent 3 days calling sources, digging for details and gathering information on the substantive issue at hand. The epicenter of the problem is not what is being outlined by financial media, corporate media and politicians who have a specific interest […]
theconservativetreehouse.com
Why don’t they rent yards further away and move empty chassis away from the port?
I’m in the background screaming “Eli Goldratt!” as my ad libs to this banger
would like to assist, but he's busy changing diapers
Why does no one mention who runs the ports. I read it a foreign country company.
Great thread. Thank you.
More info here than the 100s of hours of msm media coverage I have seen.
would this help?
Was just about to ask if the weather started getting rough.
Is the skipper brave and sure?
Cannot get enough of the armchair global shipping experts in this thread 😂
Sounds like a plan
May I just buy some land next door and offer container storage services?
What let this happen, what would have averted or amiorated it? Do we have a ports czar?
Sorry rookie but please leave this to the trained @PeteButtigieg
Great thread, we’ll stated, 💯 true!
I like this proactive approach, detailled analysis and practical planning! I hope action can be taken asap.
How do you think environmental regulations play into this? Port of LA changed their requirement for trucks on the 1. of October.
portoflosangeles.org/environment/ai…
And why are there so many empty containers?
Well, since you did the leg work, maybe the government will either A) Help fix it or B) Get out of the way and let the private sector fix it. Thanks for the solid info
I would absolutely love to see solutions like this implemented!!!
Unfortunately this being a symptom is true! This dilemma was absolutely deliberate, nefarious, and intentional!!! I pray you are successful in inspiring Americans to pull together to put this right again 🇺🇲💞🙏
Empty containers can be safely stacked 7-high, but yards that only stack 2-high might not have the equipment to go that high.
PLEASE READ THIS THREAD!
@UPS @CarolBTome @FedEx @SorenSkou @MaerskNAM @Maersk @flexport @COSCOSHPGLines @PortofLA
Finally there will be an innovative plot for new saving-christmas-last-minute movies
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I think the horrifying tragedy is the imbalance of ships with full in-bound vs out-bound containers. Indicates a much deeper problem than a 2 high vs 6 high empties storage issue
If those huge ships unload full containers and won't wait to get empties back then they should either be charged for the empties or not allowed back into port in the future.
Excellent report Ryan, we need you and your ideas out front to fix this mess. I appoint you the new Transportation Secretary effective today.
The longshore union controls the docks
A 3 hour tour…
Gov builds ROADS that later get clogged and FAIL. Consumers spend $ now after Covid slowdown. Ordered goods sit on MANY ships; MUCH traffic like on roads. But we NEED MORE TRUCK DRIVERS; MORE SPACE to unload or store containers unloaded from ships. Emergency with NO magic wand.
There needs to be a system(probably 3rd party like a stubhub) that connects exporters who need empties with importers who have empties. This would dramatically reduce port and freeway congestion
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I was told if I got vaccinated, this would all blow over?
You had me until #4... the "force" thing I cannot abide
Great thread. Once again this silly stacking prohibition shows the complete idiocy of government in general and especially California.
Does this mean shipping containers are getting cheap now? I'd like to buy one to make a tool shed
Use some containers to build small houses for our homeless across America. Once evictions rise, we will need shelter for people.
Great boots on the ground (er, water) analysis of the current bottleneck at LA/LB. Thanks @typesfast !
Great summary thank you for sending.
We started diverting all of our containers to Houston (they actually used to go through Houston but we switched to LB after a hurricane put Houston out of commission years ago and we just never switched back... until recently)
I was going to say — I spent Giants opening day watching the parking lot in the bay from the stands at Oracle Park, but things have been moving at a good clip for months here.
Apparently hiring more people to do a job works. (Also Oakland doesn't have the same restrictions on box height that LA and LB have)
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Thoughts?
I’d say, a paid partner ship with private property/land owners who are willing to lend their land for container storage. A verification(of willing private property) and tracking system can be implemented to know exactly where each container is at any point in time.
2 questions- 1)why did the empty containers suddenly become a problem? How did this work previously? 2)wouldn’t you want the container ships to be your bottleneck? Better to have an idle crane waiting for a ship, than an idle ship waiting for a crane, right?
Can a kind human being make a visual explanation of this, I have difficulty following long texts
Hahahaa
During the 2014 dockworker’s strike @flexport ensured that my @Kickstarter backers got their action figures for the holidays as promised (we flew them in). Still had product on the boat through Christmas, but we delivered on time. Great organization! Smart. Listen to this man.
It's great to see this initiative: empirical fact gathering
Great post sounds like empty containers need to start being stacked at a seperate destination away from port terminals until they can sort out the massive amount of extra containers jamming up all their gear.
Finally found someone on @Twitter who thinks like I think. ✊
This would be a great opportunity for @SecretaryPete to show his amazing leadership skills and break the bottleneck. I know he is on paternity leave but I made work phone calls when I was on maternity leave. If he solved this, he would be a hero!
He’s worthless. That should already be apparent. But watch what happens over the next few months, and keep an open mind. Then you’ll see the truth.
he is making calls already, per jen psaki
Perhaps we should circle back just to confirm.
Ok let me know when he responds to your text
I can’t tell if the “amazing leadership skills” is sarcasm or not.
Because I don’t want my brain to explode today, I’ll assume it is….
Amazing leadership? He couldn’t run a shit town in Indiana properly.
The year Buttigieg decided to run for mayor Newsweek published an article placing South Bend on the list of top 10 dying cities.
This year, after serving 8 years as mayor another national magazine ranked it 88th in best places to live.
He was successful bringing the city back.
Mmm, this seems more a Commerce issue than Transportation, but that's just me.
A two month maternity leave during the worst freaking crisis in history. I wish I had that luxury! Time to get off your ass and get back to work
Of course he's on leave. Like everyone else in the world.
Cut the guy a break. He’s waiting for his milk to come in before heading back to work.
Not being from the US, I only have a slight recollection of this person's name, but as an outsider it's interesting to see how many bots have been attracted to your thread to post negative comments about him.
Pete knows as much about transportation, logistics, and supply chains as my dog, who's not an especially bright dog.
Please do not refer to Pete as a “he”, “him”, “his”. I find it offensive not knowing how the pu*sy identifies.
Pete is in this position because he “checked the box” gay, not “qualified”.
Pete’s not in charge of the ports. It’s actually TSA.
I hope “amazing leadership skills” is sarcasm.
Let's get the former mayor of [checks notes] South Bend, Indiana, on the job
Your solution essentially calls for government to get out of the way. Needless restrictions and labor unions are causing this.
I can see it now. That little twerp sneaky Pete will be announcing he has identified and solved the port issue any minute now.
Credit where credits due: Great job @typesfast
Wow 😮
When people are paid by the hour or what?
Great thread. Thank you for the first hand account.
Pete could fix this in one day between feedings. No,?
Very informative thread. I love that you are offering a solution.
A 3 hour tour? 3 HOUR TOUR?
Are the Professor and the Movie Star ok?
great work Rye. Let the private sector handle and indemnify them as they did Big Pharma/Covid vaccines
God, I thought you were going to say you got shipwrecked on an island somewhere…
Someone, somewhere, must be making a killing here.
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please listen to this guy.
Hope you left your #Bitcoin at home. Bitcoiners have bad luck when on boats...
Thanks for the story, but in typical California style, your solution is too logical and efficient for our bureaucrats; therefore, they will he unable to implement it. I do see them spending loads of money to conduct a survey that will take years and ends with no solution. ha.
Cynicism does not solve problems.
Free market
boat update
(No comment)
Where’s @PeteButtigieg?
(No comment)
“On a three hour tour”
(I’m sorry I couldn’t help it)
Like Gilligan?
(No comment)
Come on government. Get your crap together
this is a great thread. More @KCBSRadio coverage?
Insightful thread.
Nationalise capitalism🤣
This is something I haven’t paid much attention to, but this thread is amazing and easy to digest. Thanks!
logistics thread
Where do the empties usually go? Back on ships? Why so many empties all of a sudden?
The empties are usually in circulation. Port to Ship to Port to truck to local delivery site back to truck to get a new load which might go back to the Port back to the ship to ship more goods.
We import goods. We export goods. We move stuff state to state. It flows around.
During the Financial crisis of 2009 and 2010 of all of sudden people weren't buying things and therefore we didn't need to ship as much and a similiar things happened. 10% of the worlds ships were sitting idle, they had to find place to put empty containers like remote islands
This is the part I don't understand. How does it help to stack them when manufacturers in China are complaining they're storing inventory because of no containers? What are ships being sent back with?
It doesn’t. ships need to be loaded back up with empties to keep the flow. If we keep them all here there are shortages elsewhere.
1) It helps to get the ships unloaded, yes. He’s not advocating to keep the containers long term, only long enough to get the cranes ALL working again. Once that backlog starts moving, then they can start loading empties for returns. If done properly it should work.
2) It might involve using a separate dock to reload, who knows. It sounds like this guy knows his business. He didn’t address the empty returns simply because most Americans are more worried about their supplies now.
I doubt he’s modeled it. He’s a technology guy whose software tells him he’s got a lot of his customer’s stuff on anchored ships.
I’m speaking as a person with 16 years in this specific industry on the ground. Loading back the empties would put more cranes to work. There’s a bunch of reasons why a crane may not be working at a specific time. Labor shortage, maintenance and ship schedules are the most common
The empties return is a vital piece of the puzzle. Ships sail pretty much at full capacity. If we end up with a huge surplus of empties here it would take years to balance things out again because the full ones don’t stop coming because trade doesnt stop and actually tends togrow
As for labor shortages there are hurdles to hiring. Extensive background checks and the time it takes to train people are two of the biggest. Current labor cannot be expected to work 24/7 because they are people.
Crane maintenance is also vital to keep them productive and safe as anyone can imagine. They are highly advanced pieces of equipment that need proper maintenance to prevent things from going haywire and extending their downtime.
Getting more industry equipment is also an issue right now. I know personally terminals that would love to get their hands on additional equipment but can’t because manufacturers are stalled due to components shortages. It’s much more complex than people imagine.
But I can see how from the outside it’s as simple as take a box off and put a box on. We lift things up and put them down so to speak. Lol. This thread is important because it gets the conversation going but it’s important to have a boots on the ground perspective.
If they are unable to unload, nothing?
Is it your perception that nothing is being unloaded? If only we had a giant ship that could take thousands of these empty containers & create actual space. Are you going to instead load these trucks 1x1 because you continue to pile up empty containers?
Instead they are rushing off empty to chase $$ and instead this guy claims to have found the magic solution when the media has been writing about the empty containers all week…
Who’s going to pay for shippers hauling empty containers? They have no incentive to do it themselves, rates are at a premium, up 5-600% from a couple of years ago.
Whoever ordered the crap that’s sitting in Asia without containers to ship. I acknowledge this isn’t an easy problem to solve, which is why I doubt stacking extra containers is what will fix it.
I work in a company that sources lots of goods from China, we already pay premium for raw materials and shipping. We can’t pay for the return trip as well, we have to make money or we go under.
The COVID situation in India is a big part of the congestion issues in Asia, as they manufacture a lot of shipping containers down there
I don’t think so. India seriously started manufacturing containers only in last 3-4 years. I don’t think they have become that critical to the supply chain so soon.
It’s all part of a perfect storm congestion wise 🤷♂️
at one point the fix was to get the ships back out of the port Nd out to sea as fast as possible. They needed the slips, so ships left empty
Rising costs per container to ship goods has caused some importers and exporters to cut drastically back on what they bring in or what they ship out of the country...in the past year the price per container has gone from $5k to north of $20k to ship overseas...
Dead on and a contributor to the price inflation of goods.
What do we produce that they would want?
We now mainly produce Antifa/BLM protestors, social studies professors, clueless media people and lazy bureaucrats. No one wants to import that shit.
The military handles their own shipment of supplies, so what else does America export besides war and death?
Military contracts for shipping. The logistics capability is only intratheater, and even then it's often contracted there too.
Look on YouTube for videos called "Tiny House."
Most places aren’t allowing co trainers to be filled because it was cheaper to offload good for sale than to wait around for them to be refilled. So they went back empty. Ships won’t takes empties, only full ones. This is the fault of greedy capitalists.
Go spend 200-300 million on a container ship and load empties on them see how long you stay in business. If it weren’t for capitalists this would be the least of your problems!!!
They're sitting empty bcs they haven't been circulated back into use, but the main priority is solving the bottleneck which is yard space not container availability according to the post, and the stacking and shifting of crates helps the yard space issue so ships cn be unloaded
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an EPA Settlement With DOT is What’s Creating The Container Shipping Backlog
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What's Creating The Container Shipping Backlog - Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here's Why - The Last Refuge
Hundreds of requests for details on the specifics of the container shipping backlog. So, I spent 3 days calling sources, digging for details and gathering information on the substantive issue at hand. The epicenter of the problem is not what is being outlined by financial media, corporate media and politicians who have a specific interest […]
theconservativetreehouse.com
Washington Post told me to curve my expectations. Is that a good plan?
If Amazon can use artificial intelligence to pay their workers less and increase distribution efficiency, why can’t ports use artificial intelligence to increase distribution efficiency and unclog their yards?
…. or perhaps artificial intelligence is actually the cause of the problem?
#ArtificialIntelligence #ElonMusk
Artificial intelligence doesn't unload containers
But it possibly makes faster and more strategic logistical decisions.
... for artificial containers. There, fixed it.
This is because many #humans do not want to take commands from the #robots and AI #software. But the #rebellion against these machine #protocols and #logistical strategies may be slowing port distribution speeds. Humans should think more pragmatically and less emotionally.
Btw….#cryptocurrency is a type of artificial container. Current market value of #crypto is more than $2 trillion.
AI can streamline systems, but ultimately a person has to put their hands on the product to get it on and off of a truck.
We need better robotics technologies for that. #automation
Solid argument. 🙄
Would you like me to send a YouTube video of human free automation? Trucks are loaded everyday with ai operators since the late 90's .
Sure. Especially since you think Googling "atl" (the abbreviation for a major American city) is going to turn up something about AI.
"Ai" not "atl" have another beer 🍻.
Ask the ilwu
I can tell you first hand now is not the time to implement any major tech changes because those things take months to actually start working somewhat efficient. It would actually make things much much worse.
You make a valid point.
So the other question some humans might have is whether certain #ports are (or were already) using A.I. #automated logistical decisions before this became a mess…..and if so, is that somehow contributing to the malfunctioning #distribution avalanche?
The problem has been identified. One solution has been identified. AI MAY be helpful to solve the puzzle next time, but now it’s not necessary, nor is it desired.
Some of the symptoms were expertly identified, but the cause might still be more mysterious than it seems. There might be aggregated A.I. influences from other ports.
We don’t need Artificial Intelligence. We need real intelligence.
Because unions won’t allow it.
….in the United States. Ports could conceivably use logistical A.I. without the unions knowing about it.
They prolly could...but not at the moment...
Did you even read the thread, it’s a shortage of yard space causing the problem.
…the shortage was a symptom of too many empty containers which was a symptom of other logistical decisions including choices about bottlenecking.
Regulations
When autonomy?
Be careful of common sense in fixing the the problem. I’m sure some regulation states you can’t have it.
This is the difference in the way a private company can make quick decisions on the go to make things happen and the BIG SLOW government getting in the way.
‘From Ship To Shore: How AI Will Transform The Container Shipping Industry’
Council Post: From Ship To Shore: How AI Will Transform The Container Shipping Industry
Terminal and independent operators should look to integrate new technology to help maximize port operational efficiency and chassis management.
forbes.com
Would love to hear your thoughts on this
As a flexport customer of over 2 years I would like to say thank you for the leadership! This along with many other things such as your tech platform is the reason we don’t even care to price shop.
Somebody's got to be missing a bunch of empty containers. China?
CA seems to have a great history of creating their own problems! State and Federal intervention causes the whole system to crash... Kinda like not enforcing the laws causes spick in crime - shoplifting, etc.
Trucker Shortage? Supply-Chain Fixes? Depends on Who You Ask
Share with friendsCargo ships wait on the Pacific Ocean, idling for days if not weeks. The Biden administration is trying to fix the supply chain to get goods into nearly every aspect of retail America. Is the supply chain problem getting goods out of California’s ports because of a lack of truck drivers? Maybe. Who’s […]
gvwire.com
So why is it happening in Georgia too.
Ryan, is the government doing anything constructive? How can your excellent ideas get implemented? This is a disaster. How did this become a problem?
#supplychainfiasco
It's amazing how few people realise what is REALLY happening. You really think this is all happening because of poor planning? This IS part of the plan for the great reset. This manufactured crisis will be revealed at some point and let me assure you, those responsible will pay.
Thank you for your Twitter White Paper! Hope the movers and shakers listen and implement. Nothing worse for US morale than real time entropy, and it’s been a rough year for that. Let’s solve this in a collaborative all hands on deck manner, then the half dozen other big problems.
very interesting
Yup. This is my life.
Mine too! But I thought you'd like to see if form the logistics dude's perspective. Am hearing ex-China containers down to around $12k now
A welcome change from $16k, though!
We saw stuff in the 22-25k range
Fuuuuuuu
You have to be careful on a three hour tour. Three hour tour.
we are nearing a bread and circuses colapse according to this.
sorry, naive question here… is this inaction to solve container problem done on purpose? or we have some incapable people hired in key positions? thanks
No mostly, but not exclusively it’s because the world economy slowed to a simmer last year and now the insane surge has put all port infrastructure over capacity.
Florida’s ports aren’t over capacity
If not there are other factors maybe you can help with. Do they all have deep water for these mega ships and cranes tall enough to work them as well. Dunno the case with Florida personally but not all ports are equipped to handle mega container ships.
I know all of Florida’s ports combined handles 1/3 of teu’s as LA does alone so I can’t imagine them being that big of ports.
Might be in purpose.
The US lockdowns meant empty returns which make zero dollars for shippers. So they let it back up. Now it's bailout time.
This was intentional
I'm betting a bunch of these longshoremen are Trumpers.
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an EPA Settlement With DOT is What’s Creating The Container Shipping Backlog
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What's Creating The Container Shipping Backlog - Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here's Why - The Last Refuge
Hundreds of requests for details on the specifics of the container shipping backlog. So, I spent 3 days calling sources, digging for details and gathering information on the substantive issue at hand. The epicenter of the problem is not what is being outlined by financial media, corporate media and politicians who have a specific interest […]
theconservativetreehouse.com
One of the main issues in California are the laws and restrictions the governor made on truckers and trucking companies. Your truck can’t be older than 2011 and you can not be an independent owner. Also they need more chassis but in CA companies can’t stack the empty containers
Wait, so truckers who own their own trucks can’t pick up?
Great work.
Your application of the theory of constraints is the most realistic way of understanding the problem and rationally developing a solution. Hope it doesn't fall on deaf ears.
Really great thread that addresses this imminent threat. As a resident of Long Beach, I see the accumulating ships offshore daily. Learning more about supply chain operations. Thank you!
let’s move. Solution in a tweet. Not 1000 page study. Leverage Peterson now!
How do people go about buying the containers that are sitting on chassis for personal or business use that don’t involve using them as transportation containers?
Threads like this is why I have a Twitter, thank you Ryan
what're your thoughts?
If I could sum up, we’re F’d.
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Great work Ryan, the government needs to listen to the private sector!
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Great thread and Great Work. Thanks for the insight.
West coast Ports contract with the ILA expires in July, 2022. If you think it is interesting now, what can we expect then????
What a “Flex”
Hey, Mayor Pete… I know you’re on paternity and all, but could you have a read and maybe have your assistants work on this? Thanks.
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Seems like there is an easy temporary solution out of it.
The situation is worse than I thought.
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Great stuff, Ryan
Na 6c t7 oo see. Hing Kong kjbbm,to. Inc 3t//.;/l0 nnmmm,,.m,knl
Thought you might be interested.
relieving port congestion will not solve the supply chain crisis - it will only move the bottleneck downstream/into other transportation modes. each component of the domestic supply chain is overwhelmed. inventory:sales ratio needs to balance.
Fantastic thread.
Your advice would be great if the Baidan admin were not r3tarded and the transportation secretary on maternity leave after birthing two babies out of his butthole. Good luck getting them to listen
Can the empty ones be discarded at Slab City?
Or any other dessert encampment.
What if the people who could fix this don’t want to fix it?
3 hour tour
Extremely interesting thread - thank you for sharing - I had no idea the port situation was this bad! I sent you $1 via @PeersendCom. Download the Extension to Receive your money.
Is this a global problem or a mainly US problem with global side effects?
A 3 hour tour?
Fascinating thread. Thanks!
read this thread
Seems like a lot of work. Can’t we just go on paternity leave instead?
Florida?
Excellent thread. I spent a career in high volume 24/7 supply chain and people simply do not understand the devastation that can occur to an operation when you get into a backlog situation with a bottleneck. Overwhelming the bottleneck as quickly as possible is critical.
Yes the emergency orders can get the containers off the ships. But you left out a big "why" here and thats the containers not being unloaded. Why aren't containers being taken to their destination and unloaded as intended?
Nice work Ryan. Here is the "bodycount" right now; the YELLOW dots are dry cargo vessels (almost all here container ships, some bulkers) [other colors are other ship/boat types].
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Great thread on solving our shipping bottlenecks. Worldwide.
On that note, are there a bunch of inexpensive shipping containers available?
Thanks for seeking root of port problem and offering up a plan to dig out!
Can’t we just refuse delivery and send it all back?
this is fascinating
Jesus fucking christ @TheReaderapp unroll
I don't know why this made me think of you but here we are lol
😂 is it the second tweet in the thread or the multistep plan that reminded you of me?
Literally all of it lol
1) the step-by-step plan is 🔥
2) the poignant drama in using caps lock re: “We must OVERWHELM THE BOTTLENECK”
3) literally went from ideate to implement at what I think of as “Patrick speed”
4) shipping containers are oversized expensive Legos 😭🤷♀️✌️
The inefficiency of hyper efficiency. Nonlinear results from disruption.
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FRUNKPUPPY(FRUNK)
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Great thread, Ryan. NYT had a great story from Savannah recently, to piggyback on this.
‘It’s Not Sustainable’: What America’s Port Crisis Looks Like Up Close
An enduring traffic jam at the Port of Savannah reveals why the chaos in global shipping is likely to persist.
nytimes.com
Fast track forcing a bleeding edge untested on children gene therapy on ever 7+ year old?.. Heck ya!
Stack containers 3 high.. Have you lost your mind!?!
Exporter from the Pacific Northwest-fascinating!!!
Awesome thread. Man I hope you don’t get high heat from those in charge
A guy on TikTok works at the port & was sharing what’s happening, but it looks like his account is gone. He said there was no more room for empties and showed the hundreds of stacked empty vontainers... Yet #JoeManchin wants to gut the #infrastructure bill. 🙄
*containers
This would require leadership of which we are devoid.
Great thread, Ryan. Every gov official or business involved with LA/LBC port operations should be forced to read The Goal by Eliyahu M. Goldratt
The Goal (novel) - Wikipedia
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en.wikipedia.org
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Or, we could just reshore some of this product manufacturing and solve:
a) port congestion
b) homelessness
c) rural rot
d) provide a lift up to americans that have become "road kill"
Sometimes cheap has a terrible price.
Yeah but that would hurt the corporate elite and the political elites pocket books
These ppl don't care about America or Americans
It's power money and control
A beat down population is much easier to control
We can’t build shit - we can’t even staff fast food restaurants where do you think the technical workforce is coming from to restart domestic production of anything?
I love that you just equated “technical workforce” with “fast food employees”. No wonder our country is collapsing.
They’re all here, waiting for the corporations that made record profits during the pandemic to start paying livable wages. This is a problem created by greedy corps, this is the bed they made. Fuck em.
Okay, but that solves the problem in 5 years. We need to start solving the existing problem TODAY. So, y’know, do both.
Great thread. I wish I could use your company for my import business but was told “Too small, try again some day.”
The jam is deliberate and very much wanted - people are more than capable of dealing with this situation
It's not rocket science
Thank you - great thread and insights.
great suggestions here for breaking the bottlenecks causing the port/container blockage.
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Did all of the idle cranes have drivers in? How many of the cranes are automatic, thus more efficient and not liable to pack up at night, or take 2 hour breaks, and shift change time losses.
This threat is incredible. This has to be fixed.
Find herbie
(No comment)
what the fuck
Sounds like today would be a good day for American truckers to #unionize & fight for living-wage pay; safe routes & reasonable schedules; benefits; PTO; autonomy (end the 24/7 surveillance); and whatever the fu*k else they want & need & deserve.
#Solidarity #UnionStrong
maybe Americans "buy" too much junk
The real solution is to manufacture here in the US
You are forgetting this is the democrats fault. They banned any trucks that didn’t have stringent emissions control three years ago. Just came into effect. There’s no trucks to haul away containers. It’s that simple. Go enviro woke. Go broke.
Increasing storage area idea
Expedited process to permit empty lots to become container storage locations?
Giving the owner of the lot also a financial incentive?
Lot size most be above X
Can also reallocate parking lots?
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Is there a reason they can't just pile the containers in the desert somewhere for a few months? Can they only be removed from trucks with port cranes?
It's fucking hilarious 🤣
Fuck it let's go for broke and blow the whole system up
Where's my popcorn 🍿Muther fucker
🤡🌎 squared
Should be obvious to anyone w a brain this is being done intentionally lol
They want chaos and epic failures!!
Ryan - See the classic book ”The Goal”.
it’s all about identifying and eliminating bottlenecks to optimize output.
LA/LB Harbor is run by smart people. WTF is going on?
Pretty sure he’s read The Goal and dozens of other operations management books.
Embarrassed response after looking over Flexport website - fully agree.
Why not redirect ships to another port along the coast and have the govt cover the additional fuel costs temporarily?
Brilliant!
And force the Mexican government to end rail blockades. Lazaro Cardenas can be a relief valve for the West coast ports.
Michoacán rail blockade now over a month old; losses estimated at $80mn
The CNTE teachers union claims that the state government has failed to pay wages owed to some 28,000 teachers.
mexiconewsdaily.com
Why do we even rely on trucks to take the containers out from the docks in the first place?
We should have a rail system tied into the dock that can run 24/7 and move the containers downstream to trucks in smaller hubs for transport to their final stop.
I believe there is a rail system in place at the docks to move containers.
“The Goal”
This problem is years in the making. Shipping companies decided that it was cheeper to build new containers overseas rather than send empty containers back. They've been piling up for years
Nothing like you’re describing will happen, because that requires the government to be mildly competent and it’s senile. Starting from the potus down.
As a resident of Long Beach I can honestly say this is the most informative piece on what’s going on that I’ve read.
How about the wind farm Northside of palm springs? Right next to rail
Landed in San Fran and aside from all the poopie in the streets, first thing I noticed is all of Americas good stuck sitting stuck on boats in the water like Nancy Pelosi on her forever thrown of power
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Did you call the @POTUS and @GavinNewsom office? You should call and offer to help.
I’m also a SCM professional and have commented recently that once the SCM professionals get involved this issue will be solved quickly awesome thread, common sense as always, thank you for your time!
How did this happen to begin with?
must read guys
This is a problem two years in the making.
It took this long just to keep the ports open after normal business hours.
ahh good 💪. if that is the consensus on site? let's get it done
who's got property that can be temporarily used as empty container overflow lots?
I suggest crypto staked teams branded & reality TV pitted against each other? w/incentives to outperform in tournaments =instant
bonus points if you wild enough to brand teams as representations of political parties. 😜
so who will win the tournament R or L?
of course all get participation compensation but for bragging rights and a large airdrop of prize money for volunteering goes to whichever side 👇
so that might kick it into overdrive and resolve another issue that's got us all at odds with one another with no way to compete through civil primetime television content that should be broadcasted with sportsmanship and not the usual negativity and let crypto take this because
idk dreamstyle is hard to 🚀
a media circus real quick? or an all inclusive respect of sportsmanship? Hmm 🤔
a bold move summons a massive amount of participation that is productively/entertaining?
as if a civil competition earns a respect that is rarely given universally?
might be wise to do this grassroots without impulse signalling so loud?
after the fact regardless I would expect a standardized core/detachable transformer container shift? that can transport cargo over land in cores? encased in detachable folding flat marine cases? using an
easier said than done tho so don't take my prose as disrespect.
I'm amping the hype as high as I can to get you guys some help with hard work that no one wants to pick up the bill for as there is no profit in doing such a task
until now that is...
I sincerely appreciate
If the issue really is just “empties”, then they just need that 500 acre lot to store them until equilibrium occurs. These same ships obviously leave with the empties so it’s just a balance thing
This is that thread I was telling you
help ya boy prevent this from happening, again.
Effective immediately Long Beach is allowing cargo to be stacked up to 4 containers high at container lots across the city. And up to 5 containers with safety approvals. Previously 2 had been the limit. This is a temporary move to address our national supply chain emergency.
Awesome thread. Any true help to shed light vs the usual outside conjecture is a great service to all of us. Thank you!!!
#SoundOn $ETN #ETN #Electroneum #ETNNetwork ⚡️“@electroneum is proud to be a Founding Member of the Digital Pound Foundation, an independent, non-profit organisation that is helping to implement a well-designed digital Pound.” #TheDigitalPoundFoundation
Could take a bunch of those empties and outfit them to be suitable to live in and help house the homeless.
So when are you going on the @PivotPod to talk with @karaswisher and @profgalloway on shipping, global supply chain, and logistics???
I follow what youre saying. My question is "why now?" What changed recently that so accutely created a global crisis?
Let me get this straight yesterday you set sail for a 3 hour tour did the weather start getting rough & was the tiny ship tossed I hope the fearless crew had courage & hope the ship was not lost
Excellent write up. Thank you for sharing and for doing your diligence on this
1. Looking back, when is the last date that this system ran normally/stably?
2. On that date, how, generally, did empty containers get from where they were unloaded to where they were reloaded?
A. Who bore the expense of moving empty containers?
B. What changed?
Get the logging truck drivers to help. Give them a financial incentive as they will be coming from the PNW.
Why is decreasing our reliance on Chinese manufacturing not included in the list of solutions? Seems like a bad idea to leave ourselves this vulnerable for so long.
Sounds like the intro to Gilligan's Island.
I'm going to bet if someone investigates they will find that a lot of ships have left port with no empty containers. They did this to speed up getting ships into port to be unloaded. They did not anticipate the consequence of leaving all these empty containers at the port.
A take-away from this thread is the question of WHY there are so many empty containers in this country. A result of too many imports vs. Exports. Fill them with American made goods and ship them to Asia.
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Why are empties so hard to purchase and so expensive right now?
Thanks for this. But what about customs clearance?
Great observations. Thank you.
So my question is, how can Potus and Newsome not know this? How can Pete Buttigieg not know about this problem? Is anybody paying attention?
Governor Newsom issued an executive order 2 days ago that included this about containers.
Well, that's a start, but overriding the zoning ordinance to allow higher stcking of containers at the truck yards would be a lot faster.
Back off Pete. He is on paternity leave.
Speaking of paying attention, you didn't read the whole thread, did you?
Just because you went in a 3 hr boat ride doesn't mean you know Jack shit about the root causes of these issues.
Even if all those things were implemented, CA has regulation that trucks can’t be older than three due to supposed climate change. This regulation eliminated half the fleet.
They don't want to fix it
liking these “what I learned” posts - they give a great sense of how your industry operates and breeds empathy and understanding for the current challenges… 👌🏼💥
This made perfect sense until it didn’t. There should be no empty containers in the port because the ships that brought them should take them back. Not sail empty. This is not a truck problem at all!!! If this is true, the problem is ships sailed away without containers. Why?
Why have they never sailed empty before but did now. I don’t see this as a design flaw, bottleneck, city ordinance problem etc... makes no sense. Ships sailed away empty, a lot of them. When this has never happened before. Answer that question and you will find out what happened.
This makes no sense because it means the shipping line “left” their container and now they cannot use it to ship something somewhere else. Do they have no demand that they don’t need their containers. This is a far bigger issue. This would indicate the opposite of a surge!!! Dead
Containers, historically, aren’t super expensive - a couple grand. China makes containers and the Us, as a net importer has always seen some left here. Look up ways to use containers - lots of creative things
They pay drayage fees every day the container sits in port. A new container does not cost $2000, they are made from several tons of steel and cost $10,000’s!!! You are talking about out of service, uncertifiable containers people buy for personal storage. Costing lines Billions$
If you forced that, it would mean that the ships would have to “hang around” the port until ALL its containers have been unloaded, trucked, emptied and then brought back to port, then reloaded. Then the jam will be around the ports. Plus, ships will sit around uselessly.
Or, simply unload and load up with empty containers that are already there
It doesn’t work like that. The ship that unloads, loads up its previous containers and export goods. It doesn’t wait around lol... the line owns its containers so it reuses them. Storing them in the port racks up drayage fees and returning empty would require buying more. $$$
Because huge COVID import surge in the US. Ships rushed back to China without reloading with full containers so they could hurry back with more goods. Empty containers are worth more in Asia than US goods
Pandemic Drove Boom of 670,000 Empty Shipping Containers Last Year
In our latest proof that global capitalism is extremely logical and efficient, hundreds of thousands of completely empty shipping containers are being transported overseas amid the pandemic, according to an analysis by Earther.
gizmodo.com
You realize they have to pay drayage fees each day the container sits in port. It’s extremely expensive. The empty containers don’t sit there for free. They circulate the containers constantly. And use them for outbound exports. Lines would be losing billions...
Has this all happened yet?
Thank you! I hope @POTUS and @GavinNewsom and their staff heard you🙏
This is a fascinating thread that illustrates well the scope of the challenge that lays ahead.
My big question now is how long will it take for demand destruction to bring supply chains back to some form of reasonable equilibrium.
This is exactly my concern and the reason for my video with Martin a couple of months ago being called 'A Perfect Storm'.
We could see continued demand from the wealthy and minimally impacted households, while inflation smashes the lower classes.
A social and economic disaster.
Great info. Well done.
Thanks!
Insane read. @readwiseio save thread
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Good ol' Yankee know how and ingenuity
What a great post. I learned so much, thank you,
Why is there such an overwhelming amount of containers? Excessive manufacturing of them? Why didn't this happen before. How are the ships full and the parts and the yards..
Sounds like your expertise should be put to the test. Have you approached the Governor, the White House or the Secretary who’s jurisdiction this falls under?
For the issue of empties, the desert is not far away from the area and full of open space. Is it feasible to drop empties stacked 3 high in guarded areas to help traffic flow? Would have empties within 4 hours of the ports when they’re needed once again.
This plan creates a new bottle neck of there not being enough truckers to run more freight.
The trucking industry has been hurting for more labor for a while, especially OTR.
Military drivers can either step in to haul or act as trainers like they are doing in the UK. If we had invested in rail for past 50 years this wouldn’t be as severe.
Some additional claims that recent environmental and labor regulations impacted the backup mobile.twitter.com/jerryo1029/sta…
The NEWS says the California port situation is caused by a driver shortage.
Not so fast: It is in part caused by a California Truck Ban which says all trucks must be 2011 or newer and a law called AB 5 which prohibits Owner Operators.
Theory of constraints - fix the weakest link in the chain - Goldratt. But what you did and suggest is uncommon common sense . This is critical and very constructive
Your field diagnoses consistently give the best insights regarding this problem, hope they listen.
This Twitter thread is literally worth billions of dollars. Thank you for stepping up.
Can you build a container recycling business? Cut them down and recycle them. Releves inventory reduces backlog.
Classic government mess.
Shut down the economy they said, it will be easy to turn back on they said.
Love these! Please continue doing more.
Great analysis and plan... make it happen
Check out this thread
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I wish I could remember what I was making fun of this dude about a couple weeks back. Oh! He wanted to move ports inland!
Why are these containers not being shipped back to China where there are reports of container shortages?
Global shipping snarls leave Chinese exporters sweating ahead of Christmas
Ahead of Christmas, Chinese traders are racing to get their goods to key export markets in the United States and Europe, but container shortages are making that hard.
scmp.com
Why aren’t the containers being sold / given away for scrap metal?
I used to live in the port of LA/LB. over the course of a few days, I watched them take down a dozen cranes about two or so years ago, load the cranes onto a huge boat and head out to the ocean with them for parts unknown. Presumably without thought for future container traffic.
Need more of this.
My fear: foregoing national security checkpoints and container examinations to end the bottleneck.
Hey @PeteButtigieg - when you’re done with your luxurious paternity leave maybe read this thread and fix this or resign and let someone competent fix it.
Have you ever thought that the Long Beach issue is simply a case of sabotage? Double agents of the PRC within the state of California deliberately ensuring US supply chains fail to weaken the US internally
This is not farfetched, the lethargy is epic
Thought of you when I read this...ufda. @OneFreshPillow
Your full of shit. The backup is in front of the ports. Go to some rail hubs in St. Louis or Chicago.
Or you can just ask a logistics expert from the very succesful sea port of Rotterdam to come over, asses the situation and give you some expert advice? The port of Rotterdam has been around hundreds of years longer than any port in the US. Experience matters. 😏
Little known fact, ports of LA/LB handle 3 million more TEU than Rotterdam. Every year.
Yes, those two ports together handle more than one Rotterdam. But do they so just as efficiently? Is there a way to compare man power? Wait times? Level of automation?
They are said to be quite stuck as well. Shortage of truck drivers in Europe.
Yes but fortunately we also have trains and river ships. Still a big problem but could have been worse without extra train and river transport. Bigger problem is new generations of Dutch kids are also too spoiled and irresponsible to become truck drivers. 🙄
Dutch, British, German, etc. But it really is a hard and tolling job.
I know, my stepfather is a truck driver. He has some medical issues due to his job. 😐 But he loves his job and it is the only job he can do. Almost at retirement age fortunately.
And he was one of the lucky ones with a really good luxury truck and a good boss. Most truck drivers not so lucky.
If the problems and solutions have been identified, you don’t need more advice. You need to take action.
Feels like the most unnecessary crisis that a project manager could easily solve. LET SOMEONE SOLVE IT BY RELEASING ALL OF THE BUREAUCRACY! Give someone with common sense some authority to make it happen!!!
I’ll take qty 7, 45’ HC empties here in GA for a reasonable price, if it’ll help America.
Well something I've learned in my 15 year career is that proactiveness is overlooked and reactiveness is rewarded. All the old timers know this and work accordingly. In short, im amazed we made it this far. gg
Yep. One of my vendors got their guys out in a boat to locate our container and bring it in sooner. But the issue now is there’s nowhere to store the empty containers. Someone she knows who has trucks/cranes was storing them in his residential street for weeks
Great work. This is the type of stuff I like doing, looking for the root of the problem and tackling that.
Terminals hate empty containers and there are charges for the whole process from unload to load to wait time. The carrier prefers mostly full loads to continue trade. Just unloading containers shifts the problem to space, which buys time but doesn't solve everything
The empty containers I read about China needing also doesn't add up. No one pays for empty loads. I doubt China or any carrier sends a ship of complete empties back to origin. A government would have to swallow that cost, which is hard to see.
Shipping routes are also not just bidirectional, they have many stops. All the manufacturing we had went into lockdown at different times are now back logged or returning to op capacity. Governments created this problem and they are exacerbating it with labor shortages and regs.
It is not a simple fix. I'm sorry. But get people back to work and employment, like the fed reserve says, then we might be talking. But then again we're talking about the fed.
A ship is like a little city made of many people importing and exporting all with bills. It's sum is greater than its parts, remove any one of its parts and we are backlogged. I still believe people employed can help solve because you need people to move things.
Cheaper than buying a new container.
This tweet literally generated like a trillion dollars of wealth for the world, thanks ig lol
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Secretary of Transportation ⬆️
Good thread / good points. The single most important thing needed here is leadership which is now very rare in this country. One intelligent person with authority could align resources and clean this up directly without further compounding.
The chassis need to be freed of empty containers and put to work moving offloaded containers inland. The port needs to be organized around two way traffic to get the offloaded ships reloaded with goods (or empties) for export. This isn’t rocket science but it takes choreography.
I was told that customs is also a bottleneck. It would be faster to move the containers by rail to someplace like Phoenix, put them through customs there, then ship them back to ca.
Best thread on Twitter by a country mile 👍🏻
Interesting.
Is Seattle having the same problem?
Can ships be diverted to other ports like Seattle, Corpus Christi, Beaumont, Miami, Baltimore?
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thanks for the fearmongering and fud…this will fix itself. people learn to reign in spending and consume less. i’d say that’s should be viewed as a positive
Really good information @typesfast, thinking from drayage pov it’ll be challenging if they’re not able to make container returns since that makes up a significant part of their revenue. Incredibly excited to see private and public sector come together to solve this 👏
Airbnb type app where property owners across the US can sign up to store empty containers for a limited amount of time in exchange for a fee. Cheaper and more distributed than existing options.
But ser, cOvID
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This is the time to say enough to the beaurocrats and just do it. Stack em' six high. Go find a place in the desert to put your containers and everyone else needs to back them up. The snail pace of government is going to strangle us all.
The only leader in this thread is the guy that started it. Thats clear by reading the comments.
I'm a small entrepreneur with little capital, but this sounds like opportunity. What role do you see without much $?
Why can’t we dump the empties on Edwards Air Force Base? Close a few runways even for a few weeks then bring them back to LA when cleared up
This is an interesting thread and worthwhile effort to explain the crisis. My question is why are we seeing this shortage of container storage now? In the past China accepted empties or they were shipped inland to recycle. What changed?
tl;dr. Did you end up making a radio out of coconuts on the deserted island or not?
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Give this man @PeteButtigieg job ASAP
It sounds like all of this will just compound the existing problem of storing empty containers in depots for long periods of time. What is the outflow of empties like via the steamship lines?
Is there a point where the economics works out to send all these containers back? Or do these just stack up forever?
check this out
Outstanding information. Outstanding ideas on how to resolve. I’m concerned about how much of a role the ILWU wants in touching and moving any of these containers.
It’s a great thread and probably accurate but I’m getting a pretty powerful “this didn’t actually happen” vibe here.
Thank you for such a great thread - I learned more reading this than I have learned talking to any of my suppliers, purchasers or shipping brokers. This situation is killing our small manufacturing business right now and it gets worse by the day.
So basically this tweet thread just saved the US economy
Brilliant Tx
I deal with this every day. I get all the write ups from McKinsey and whatever. This is better. Thank you for clarifying.
Excellent thread here by Ryan Petersen @typesfast. Anyone that has read a book on Theory of Constraints will identify with this problem. See the book The Goal. We already know how to solve this problem.
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Americans have been completely out of their control with online buying since the start of the pandemic. I love capitalism, but if you want it, you need to wait for it.
This kind of thread epitomizes the value of Twitter and confirms what several of us have argued about one portion of the sources and solutions for the current global supply chain saga.
A key point not dissected here is low AI use in US logistics vs other countries necessitates clumsy administrative intervention by politicians to solve problems. I note this global out-of-synch use of AI as a source of global distortions in @fobes⬇️
Global Supply Chains’ Crisis Is Much Bigger Than The Pandemic; The Transformation They’re Undergoing Is The Cure
The supply chain crisis is due only in part to Covid-19. It largely reflects adjustments in train that must be embraced if the world continues toward a "just-in-time," sustainable economy. The crisis will disappear not due to eliminating Covid or because supply chains will revert to pre-Covid times.
forbes.com
Let's start with Twitter reducing bandwidth noise by de-ranking silly videos and instead let good ideas see the light of day. All should be a part if the solution.
Thank you for your extremely detailed thread! Great work
have this guy on, with solutions v the other guy that said, boy things are tough.
Effective immediately Long Beach is allowing cargo to be stacked up to 4 containers high at container lots across the city. And up to 5 containers with safety approvals. Previously 2 had been the limit. This is a temporary move to address our national supply chain emergency.
Does the story below that CA EPA rule changes are to blame have any basis?
The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What's Creating The Container Shipping Backlog - Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here's Why - The Last Refuge
Hundreds of requests for details on the specifics of the container shipping backlog. So, I spent 3 days calling sources, digging for details and gathering information on the substantive issue at hand. The epicenter of the problem is not what is being outlined by financial media, corporate media and politicians who have a specific interest […]
theconservativetreehouse.com
Thanks for explaining the current condition of port operations. Is it fair to say that previously the empty containers were being taken back to China?
You learned all of this on a three hour boat tour?
Where is the video?
Tagging @RaoulGMI in case he hasn't yet seen this.
This is basic operational analysis/industrial engineering. Without even verifying the facts this has the ring of truth.
As Charles Kettering of General Motors allegedly said back in the day, “A problem well-defined is a problem half solved.”
What an informative and solution based thread!
Amazing lesson in operations management. Even more so now that this recommendation has been put into action.
You had me going with the “3 hour tour.”
If you all didn’t end up on a deserted isle, I’m not interested anymore.
thanks for the info, very interesting.
Solving problems created by regulation with new "temporary" regulation doesn't sound right.
But I heard there may be a huge natural demand for cheap housing built from containers..
This is an amazing thread in need of a couple hastags to trend so that more people jump in and maybe someone will act. #ShipJam #PortLongBeach
Good thread.
Do you expect the cost of shipping to keep going up, or will companies stop trying to ship until the backlog improves?
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you should discuss this thread on the next episode
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Great insights 🔥
What rich people do
Important lessons for all of us. 1 Define the problem
2. Get the facts, document them so others can understand
3. Propose a solution that csn be achieved. If the solution requires major funding or changes the law, break it down and start chipping away at it.
Fast boat from Ningbo is 14 days.
Slow boat from Ningbo is 28 days.
Currently 100+ ships at anchor off LA ports.
Typical time at port is 2-3 days to load/offload containers. Even with 24/7 operations,they probably won’t be done until this time next year. Just stop sending ships.
Similar problems elsewhere, Europe/Britain, maybe one item on plan should be, “Local Manufacturing ”, stuff from China/Vietnam etc is no longer sustainable and recent events show how vulnerable we are when dependent on long supply lines.
This is a very interesting thread about a big problem and, unusually, the author offers solitions.
I added a few thoughts here Alex on what might have triggered this.
twitter.com/ClarkAllister/…
This is likely a function of a Ripple Effect across the international supply chain for goods triggered by a ramp-up of demand for goods post Lockdowns. That level of demand likely exceeds that seen during vibrant economic periods, hence it has not been seen before. (1/n)
In case anyone is interested, an on-line course given by someone highly credentialed on the topic is running in November 2021
idw-online.de/de/news777211
Jenga
Assign all ships, trucks, yards, workers and rules to an app. Call it Port Simulator and the world's 15 year olds will have it fixed in a week or two. This is litterally every simulation game I've ever played.
Why is it always up to the Govt to come to the rescue of capitalism when it has these regular meltdowns?
has suggested deploying the military to help. Who’s in charge of logistics?
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