See the entire conversation

Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵
5,948 replies and sub-replies as of Mar 04 2022

Consider a timely paper on Russian army by Bismarck Analysis. It's good & informative. It's correct on its land-based and artillery-centric character. It's also correct that Minister of Defence Serdyukov greatly increased army's efficiency in 2007-2012. But it's still misleading
Yes, Minister Serdyukov indeed reformed the army. He increased its efficiency, fought with corrupt and crony armament producers improving the army supplies. As a result he became extremely unpopular, made tons of powerful enemies and was ousted in 2012 losing his power and status
His successor Shoygu knew better than that. Now who's Shoygu? Shoygu is the *only* single Russian minister who uninterruptedly worked in government since 1991, since the very beginning of Russian Federation. He worked for all presidents, all prime ministers avoided all purges
What does it mean? It means he's a cunning political entrepreneur, great in court politics, publicity, image. You survive every single administration by maxing your political survival. And to max it you need to minimise animosity. So you never object to powerful interest groups
Serdyukov fought with interest groups and was destroyed. Shoygu was smarter than that. He launched a PR campaign presenting himself as the "saviour" from the Serdyukov's legacy. Whatever his predecessor did, was dismantled. Media cheered, people cheered, interest groups cheered
That's a very, very typical problem. Efficiency-maxing requires ruthlessness in dealing with established elites and interest groups. Meanwhile court-politics-maxing requires pondering to them and not making enemies. Serdyukov was maxing efficiency, Shoygu - court politics
There was another issue. Shoygu is ethnic Tuvan. In such a country as Russia minority member can hardly become the supreme leader. People don't perceive him as ethnic Russian (see his palace) which means he's not dangerous for the leader and you can safely delegate him the army
Shoygy not only purged Serdyukov's appointees, pondered to old military establishment, stopped arguing with army suppliers about the equipment cost and quality. He also pondered to numerous feel-good-lies regarding the Russian big strategy. Let's consider the army vs navy problem
Army vs navy had been a traditional dilemma of European powers for centuries. As a rule, you couldn't support both first class army and first class navy, you had to choose. Some powers ignored this to their demise - like 17-18th cc France. Others were more rational, like Prussia
We kinda forgot it but in the 17th c principality of Brandenburg centered in Berlin tried to play into a "global maritime power". They built a navy, established colonies in Caribbean and Africa (red). Super costly, super hubris, super stupid. Consumed tons of resources in vain
In 18th c. they reconsidered. They sold their colonies, dismantled the navy and started land-maxing. They correctly realised that if they suppress their hubris and minimise the navy (to zero), they can land-max and build the first class army. Which would then unify Germany
So. Land-maxing requires minimising the naval ambition. Does Russia minimise its naval ambition? No. It feels obliged to maintain as much Soviet naval legacy as possible. Keep old ships afloat, build new ones, maintain and expand infrastructure for the ocean navy
Here is another dilemma. Regional fleets can be effectively used in land wars. For example, Russia declared "navy manoeuvres" and then attacked Ukraine from the sea. That's cheap and effective. But keeping a regional fleet doesn't sound sexy. It's efficiency-maxing, not PR-maxing
And Russia is PR-maxing. Putin declared that the share of new ships should reach 70% by 2027. Old Soviet ships are becoming obsolete, Russia's building new ones. BUT. Major Soviet shipyards are located in Ukraine. So now Russia expands shipyard infrastructure to reach this goal
Soviet naval legacy is a curse of Russian military. USSR could afford ocean fleets with carrier strike group. Russia can't. But abandoning Soviet ambitions would require suppressing their own hubris (impossible). So they strive to maintain it. Ergo: they can't and won't land-max
How does it reflect on this war? First, Russian invading force is small. It has LOTS of artillery ofc. But it's not numerous enough to win. Pro-Russian analysts compare their advance with Barbarossa. But unlike Wehrmacht in 1941 Russian invaders have only *ONE ECHELON OF TROUPS*
How is a Blitzkrieg organised? By echelons. First echelon is moving forward as fast as they can. Ofc this means that lots of defenders will be left in their rear. But then the second echelon comes, then third, etc. They finish defenders, occupy territory, control the supply lines
If Russia launched a proper Barbarossa-style Blitzkrieg that would happen now - first, second, third echelons. But the second echelon didn't come. It never existed. Why? First, Russia's *not* landmaxing and thus doesn't have so much resources and infrastructure for the land war
Secondly, launching several echelons would require long arduous preparation. You need to mobilise them, move to the borders, quarter, maintain and supply. It's not that easy. It's a hard job that should have been done well in advance to wage a Blitzkrieg. And it hadn't been done
Why Russia didn't prepare a proper Blitzkrieg? And now we come for the third and main reason. Blitzkrieg is a war strategy. Blitzkrieg is how you break & suppress the enemy who's actually fighting. Russia didn't plan it because it didn't plan a war. It planned a Special Operation
Ofc partially that's just modern discourse. After WWII traditional understanding of sovereignty as of legal right of sovereign rulers to wage offensive war died. As a result modern states never admit they're waging wars. They're waging "pacifications", "counterterrorism", etc
Consider how all the War Departments and Ministries over the world were renamed into "Defence" in late 1940s. Everyone's defending, nobody's attacking. Why does the fighting happen then? Well, because of criminals - "bandits", "terrorists", "jihadees" or as now in Ukraine "Nazis"
Modern world abolished the distinction between the enemy and the criminal, a key idea of the Roman Law. Powers do wage wars, but to do so they need to criminalise and dehumanise their enemies. Hence, all the "terrorist" discourse. In a sense Putin is going with the flow
But on a deeper level Putin is absolutely correct. His declaration of "special operation" in Ukraine is sincere, because he didn't expect the war. He doesn't know how to do wars. For all of his life he's been organising and launching the special operations
First, as a KGB officer. Then, as St Petersburg city councillor for foreign affairs (= illegally selling Soviet warehouse stuff to the West). In 1990s he closely worked with the criminal world and he did it successfully. Here you see him with a thief-in-law, Grandpa Hassan
Putin worked with violent entrepreneurs used to killing. But. He had always had the upper hand. Federal and regional governments were very much stronger than these criminal bosses who were very much replaceable. Everyone of them had dozens of henchmen who wanted to take his place
Putin waged special operations when he had much stronger position than these criminals. And he got used to that. Later Yeltsin chose him as a successor and in this capacity Putin launched a bunch of special operations to consolidate power. Again with full support of higher ups
Yeah, Putin played badass even before becoming a President. But it was easy to play a badass when he was backed up by then President and the entire apparatus of Kremlin. Huge power, no risk, no accountability
Later he initiated conflicts each time his had to boost his popularity and tough image. Chechnya, Georgia, Syria. But neither of this was a war. Every conflict was a Special operation waged: 1) for political goals 2) against small force which had no chance to win against Russia
Putin fought only with small countries. Chechnya - 1 million people, Georgia - 4. Syria had more, but he fought with rebels, with no proper training or armaments. Also "counterterrorist" discourse allowed Russians to simply level entire cities to the ground with no consequences
Every time Putin needed to confirm his alpha status he would devastate some little country with a Special Operation. They didn't require proper preparation because they bore no existential risk to Russia or to him. Like, the fuck they're gonna do? No risk = no need to bother
Putin decided to repeat this little trick again. Hence, not that numerous army of invasion, only one echelon of advance, etc. But Ukraine is much bigger - it has 44 million people. What was Putin thinking? Apparently he was expecting zero resistance from the Ukrainian army
Putin had a good reason to believe so. Indeed, in 2014 Russian regulars ("ихтамнеты" = "there aren't any of them there") easily destroyed Ukrainian forces in Debaltsevo and Ilovaysk. He saw that Ukrainian army is weak and he can easily route them simply sending Russian regulars
Strategically speaking Putin fucked up. He defeated Ukraine, inflicted pain and humiliation. Anyone with an IQ above the room temperature knew the war is not over and Russians would strike again. But - Putin didn't finish Ukraine back then. He thought he'd always have a chance
What happened next was quite predictable. Inflicting a painful but not critical defeat on your enemy is risky. Yeah, they kinda became weaker. But the balance of power within them changed. Court politics maxing interest groups lost and efficiency maxing upstarts get a chance
Formula of institutional evolution = scare + don't finish them. Napoleon smashed Prussians at Jena-Auerstedt, didn't finish them. Prussia evolved. Commodore Perry scared Japanese in 1853, but the US spiralled into Civil War and left them alone. Japan evolved
Nothing motivates as hard as an existential threat. First, Ukrainians admitted the truth: «I'll be frank. Today we have no army. Now we can assemble a group of 5 thousand capable soldiers max [out of 125 on paper]" - reported minister of defence in 2014
I'll make a pause, gonna resume in an hour or so. To be continued soon
In 2014 Ukrainian equipment was awful. Almost 100% vehicle and ammunition were 25+ year old Soviet stocks. Moreover, most of it just expired. Like vehicles existed on paper but were never checked or used since 1991. Their radiators, accumulators all rotten and unrepairable
FSB colonel who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 admitted it created problem for him, too. He wanted to restock from the Ukrainian military warehouses, but that stuff just didn't work. Like they took 28 anti-tank missiles and fired them all during Nikolaevka battle. None worked
Judging by the interviews with insurgents who were disappointed to find that rockets, shells, grenades taken from Ukrainian warehouses were 99% dysfunctional (ofc, they were 25+ years old) it's not surprising Ukraine lost to Russia in 2014. It's surprising they could fight at all
Even the ancient soviet radio machines didn't work. Ukrainian soldiers had to communicate with SMS and since network was often awful they had to throw their mobile phones up in air in a hope may be it will catch radio signal few meters over the ground
That's how Ukrainian army looked back then. No wonder it was immediately crushed by Russian regulars in Debaltsevo and Ilovaysk and Putin had every reason to believe that resistance will be broken the moment he launches his regular army en masse
A lot has changed. First, Ukraine has had six drafts. Men were drafted and sent to Donbass. Then most demobilised and returned to civilian life. This Donbass contingent was around 60 thousand soldiers and constantly rotated. So now Ukraine has 400 000+ veterans of Donbass war
Many of them were in combat. Thus Ukraine has huge number of veterans with combat experience. Probably more than Russia. Yes, Russia has been fighting in Syria. It never published the size of its force but it's estimated to be 2-3 thousand. Most Russian soldiers have not seen war
Furthermore, combat they've seen is different. Russian soldiers are used to fighting only when they total superiority. In Syria they would just level cities to the ground with bombers. Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers have fought only against far stronger and better equipped enemy
Equipment-wise this war took Ukrainian army half-resupplied. It developed many innovative weaponry of its own, but almost none of it was produced on large scale. In most cases soldiers have only few prototypes of new, Ukrainian-produced weaponry
Ukraine ordered 48 Turkish Bayraktars TB2 drones. That's not bad - more than twice what Azerbaijan had in Karabakh. But only 12 of them got to the troops by now. Ukraine is also developing new, stronger drone Bayraktar Akinci together with Turks, but it's too late for this war
However, Ukrainians got a number (unpublished) of American-produced Javelins and M141 Bunker Defeat Munition, & British-Swedish produced MBT LAWs. Together with Ukrainian produced anti-tank weaponry such as «Stugna-P», RK-3 "Corsar" and «Barrier» it helps to fight Russian tanks
Ukrainian troops hadn't received many new tanks by the time Putin attacked. But they got new armoured vehicles, such as domestic-produced Cossack-2 with Turkish produced Aselsan fighting modules and a number of American armoured vehicles, humvees, etc
Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a day to fight only in their own town and region
Why? Well, that's pretty obvious. If Russia made a proper Blitzkrieg with several echelons of attack, Ukraine would lose anyway. But Russia didn't. And Ukrainians bet that they wouldn't. First - it's costly and difficult for a state security regime which isn't landmaxing
Second, Putin expected Ukrainian army to run away or surrender in the first day. Like most of foreign observers expected. Now they're of course changing the narrative, but if you look at their posts few days ago they didn't believe that Ukrainians would make any real resistance
So Putin attacked with only one echelon. Troops pushed forward leaving many non-destroyed Ukrainian regulars and levy behind. In a proper Blitzkrieg a second and third echelon would have come to finish Ukrainian defenders. But they didn't. These additional echelons didn't exist
Which immediately created the supply and replenishment problem. The first echelon pushed forward. It needs a supply in ammo, in fuel and well, in people. But these supply convoys are being attacked by the regulars and territorial defence troops left behind
By those few Bayraktars Ukraine got
And reportedly by the levy whom the government just distributed guns. These people would be unable to stand against the Russian columns but they can attack convoys. Consider that Ukraine has many veterans with combat experience among civilians
Strelkov, who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 confirms this version in his telegram. Supply columns are being destroyed because there's no second echelon
Putin is apparently concerned. In the video of 25 Feb he called for Ukrainian military to do a coup d'erat. He wouldn't need it if his plan worked in the first place
What does it mean? Putin's plan didn't work. Cuz he didn't plan for war. He never fought a war and has no idea how to fight them. He has been always doing Special Operations and this is a Special Operation, too. They should have just run away or surrender, but they keep fighting
The defeat in this operation will inflict enormous consequences for Putin and his regime. They are unlikely to survive this defeat. Meanwhile, it's unlikely that Putin wins by the same methods
It's not that Russian morale is low, it's rather that it depends on how hard the war is.Most Russian troops would be enthusiastic or wouldn't mind against a small foreign vacation with fun and adventures. Fighting a hard long war with real possibility of death is another matter
Now my laptop died and wouldn't turn on again, so typing from phone
Morale of Russian troops is widely overestimated. According to sociological studies the main motivation to enlist is usually to get an apartment. They are usually young men from underprivileged background with no real prospects in life. That's a chance to get a housing from state
Now if you are dead, you can't get a housing. Perhaps those already in Ukraine have little choice but the very fact that resistance continues, war is bloody and casualties are real would hugely demotivate those back at home. Expect no enthusiasm to go there on Russian side
What Putin can do? 1. Start destroying infrastructure (done) 2. Blockade cities (done) 3. Simply level cities with bombers and artillery like in Chechnya or Syria (may be) The first two would inflict humanitarian catastrophe and as he hopes break the will
Third one is more problematic. Unlike Chechnya or Syria where you could easily justify the open genocide with "fighting jihadees" which is a fair play in the "war on terror", here it would be more difficult and actually might draw the NATO response. Still, I can't exclude this
So my prognosis is: if the fight continues and victory is not achieved Russian ability and willingness to fight will be disappearing quickly. Putin doesn't have a choice but many of his subordinates do
Even in case when Russia doesn't technically lose and some source of armistice/agreement is achieved, Ukraine already won. Why? Many describe this conflict as kinetic. Bullshit. Human conflicts or interactions are not kinetic. They are mythological and run by myths
Money is a myth. It exists only because we believe so. Power is a myth. Nation is a myth. Institutions are purely mythological. Consider the story of the burning of Moscow in 1572. Ivan the Terrible divided his country to Zemschina (land) and Oprichnina (taken apart)
Oprichnina was under his personal rule. Oprichniks - his forces - launched terror campaign against Zemschina. They slaughtered entire noble houses, massacred cities, killed enormous number of commoners facing no resistance. Why? Were they strong and brave? No. Because if the myth
Russian people existed within a myth of Orthodox monarchy. Ofc there would be individuals who would go against the Orthodox Tsar. But it was impossible to organise a resistance against him. Thus resistance would be individuals and easily crushed by organised Oprichnik forces
Oprichniks became very brave and badass. Because mythology of the Russian people prohibited 99% of them to resist these security forces. So with the time they decided they are really cool. In 1572 when Crimean Khan attacked Moscow Oprichnik forces went to face him
Kinetically speaking they had overwhelming superiority. Guns, cannons, much heavier armor or weaponry. Their defense and firepower was very much stronger. But they were routed in one day simply by arrows. Because they were used to fight people whose myth prohibited to resist them
Within the Muscovite mythology Oprichniks were invincible untouchable demigods, as hands of Orthodox Tsar, who's kinda living God. But when facing foreign enemy they left this mythological space. And entered a new space where they are just people and can get arrow in the face
They were not used to getting arrows in the face. The very realisation they are not demigods but mortals shocked them. They ran away dropping their armor, guns and cannons. Moscow was burnt to the ground despite having total "kinetic" and technological superiority
So. Power is mythological. Russian state security are gods within their own mythological space where they represent the god like state. But what they found that Ukrainians left this mythological space. Thus Russian state security has no power there. They are just mortals
And finally. The very fact of resistance against so much superior enemy very much empowers the Ukrainian mythology. It's enormous mythos building we are witnessing. The very phenomenon of war is inconceivable without taking into account mythological dimension
Consider Venice. When Napoleon came they surrendered without a shot. Very smart, saved lives, saved the city. It's just killed the mythos of Venice. People lived but the Republic died. It was never restored and is unlikely to be restored again
Theorists of war of the bygone age understood it. Clausewitz pointed out that it's important not only if you lost independence but *how* you lost it. If you submitted without a fight, you saved lives. But you killed your mythos. You'll be digested by the conqueror
But if you lost after the brutal and bloody fight your mythos is alive. The memory of the last battle will live through the ages. It will shape the mythological space your descendants live in and they'll attempt to restore independence at the first opportunity. End of thread
HITLER PUTIN ...!!!!!!!!
The best thread I've ever read on Twitter. Thank you.
I recommend going back and reading his other threads from last few days. Equally long and detailed on the rise of Putin, how the Chechens went from Thron in side of Russia to some of his loyal soldiers that he can call upon
Will do, thank you
Thread of threads Large threads will be published here every Friday and sometimes on additional days. Also I am now working on setting up a substack - gonna post here when done. At this point let me give a guide to navigate through already published threads - from older to newer
I was coming here to say the exact same thing.
Outstanding. Thank you 🙏🏼
Yes - Thankyou -
Thanks for this thread, appreciate the insight
And what a thread it was. Thank you.
Outstanding thread. Thank you so much.
The thread is really great. And we🇺🇦 will win.
awesome! another great thread
Outstanding, bravo 👏
It somehow reminds me of the Warsaw Uprising🙄
And polish history in general…
HITLER PUTIN MUSI PROSIĆ OBCE WOJSKA WSTYD HA HA HA
Thank you for this thread
This was a RIDE, gorgeous
Very good read. Thank you.
the is the best analysis so far.
You are doing some great work with education and some historical insight into what's going onto in and around this conflict.
That's thread is so awesome, i was looking for every tweet like a new episode of breaking bad
So who will win then? Inconclusive other than speculating on a coup, that's not a prediction
outstanding thread ! Many thanks for enlightening us on a such complex issue.
I've learnt much. Thank you for all of this. Now go charge that laptop.
Jesus man, thanks for sharing the knowledge!! Are you a scholar on the subject?
Amazing thread, learnt so much. Thanks
A good example here is Serbia's Battle of Kosovo of 1389 which was built into the Serbian mythos right up unto the present
Battle of Kosovo - Wikipedia
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en.wikipedia.org
I hope it was a good read Support my work here: threadreaderapp.com/please/support 💎
Thank you ! Great !
Excellent thread!Thank you very much!
Thank you, Kamil, very educative and helpful!
A nice example here would be Serbia, I think. Or somehow Scotland.
Poland for sure.
Gracias. Muy interesante.
This is the best thread I ever read, and it's not that close.
wow!! last bit applies 100% to the jewish people imo
re conquest and susbsequent exile
I have read it !
Saved! FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚 Stats: • 12 saves of this thread (ranked #3845) • 112 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #422)
Epic thread with great sources! One question: You say Ukrainians have a lot of combat experience because of the Donbas war. But they were fighting someone, weren't they? Don't those people have lots of combat experience as well?
Sure, but he mentioned that Ukraine rotated its troops in Donbass, and as a result it has a larger pool of veterans.
Russia didn't rotate its troops?
If they did, it wasn't probably done on a comparable scale to then🇺🇦 army.
Since Afghanistan body bags are a sore point in Russia. Putin has tried to limit real combat risk to true volunteers (effectively internal mercenaries) with far better pay etc, who knowingly take on high risk, and even then, as covered in the thread he has been careful to pick
The defenseless to keep Russian casualties to a minimum. Chechnya, the body bags almost got him into trouble, even as he needed to consolidate his power. This is the first time since Afghanistan that Russia has fought an opponent that had any chance to go toe to toe with them.
And he only did it, because he incorrectly thought it would be another Georgia. If he had realised it would be an Afghanistan he would not have tried.
Now he’s in so deep that if he pulls out it will make him look weak
Many Russians are afraid of harassment and hostility from foreigners, you need to understand that the Russians themselves are hostages of this situation
Thank you for writing, Kamil! 🙏
This thread is exactly right about the mythology of this conflict. We are seeing the legends, not just little ones, but things on the scale of the Alamo or George Washington being born right before our eyes. Even in defeat, they will go on in Story. Stories matter.
I only hope history doesn't forget this moment. Ukraine truly is the only blockade for authoritarianism in Europe right now, and they are fighting to hopefully keep the rest of the world from an escalation of war. Immense bravery from those people. Simply immense.
This the modern day version of Ancient Greek Sparta’s famous 300
Also, you say the second echelon didn't exist, but what about the 150,000+ Russian troops massed on the border? If Russia used them all, would it be enough for a blitzkrieg?
US defense said this morning they have already used 2/3 of them.
In Germany we say „das ist Kanonenfutter“. A great many untrained young soldiers who have no idea about war (as described). 150k sounds a lot, but not enough for such an attack. Not all of them are fighters. E.g. medics, technicians, cooks etc.
(In English - cannon fodder [food] 😢)
That's what's being reported in the UK news. A 3 mile convoy of armaments heading into Ukraine.
Every brigade has hundreds of vehicles. In safe transport a single wheeled battalion takes up around 20 miles on the road. A 3 mile convoy this tight might constitute 3-5 brigades? 20k troops at most? That might not be that alarming, they might still be facing much more defenders
This morning uk news says its 36km heading for Kyiv but what it comprises is not clear
And this is how a new war will begin because you want to live your myth again! That's bullshit!
Can this thread carry on, please?
Absolutely brilliant analysis. Thanks so much.
Btw, as an example of this point, note that even though an independent polish state did not exit for 123 years before WWI, they had uprisings every generation and a mythos that led to the country’s independence in 1918
As the National anthem says, "Poland isn't lost as long as we're alive. What the foreign forces have taken, with sabres we'll get back"
Also how Israel has managed to reassemble itself as a state many times over Millenia despite having being conquered and dispersed many times over. The Jewish identity has remained unbroken from Abraham on downt though the ages tied together by a powerful religious thread
Thank you, Kamil. Really a great thread!
"Throughout history many nations have suffered a physical defeat, but that has never marked the end of a nation. But when a nation has become the victim of a psychological defeat, then that marks the end of a nation." — Ibn Khaldun
incredible thread👏
Its time to new mythology. Ukrainian's.
Thank you for taking the time to write all of that. I agree with your analysis. And soon the world will too.
Wow, what an impressive explanation! Thank you very much
Afghanistan was another case where the Russians "got arrows in their faces." (and so did the US)
Oh so true. History so often are hung on the myths of man.
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day!
You also see this in Scotland. Despite losing frequently to England, Scotland always resisted. Robert the Bruce understood this and built an army starting with nothing more than myth.
And that myth is strong enough to have carried all the way to the modern age as an undercurrent, such that they are now looking for independence again after Brexit.
Thank you for that great thread. It understand so much more now than I did before.
The absolute #1 most useful and enlightening thread on this war. Completely brilliant and eye-opening, and love (as an anthropologist) how you end with the mythos piece. That seems absolutely accurate and we all see it congealing in real time.
👍👍👍
The mythos piece - to see this in real time evolve, it is real awe
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦👍 Interesting about the apartment for soldiers. I agree with every word about the myth. There is also a founding myth and this war will be one for UKR. I'm glad that UKR fights bravely and continues in resistance. We are with her with all our heart. 👍from🇵🇱
Makes anyone want to be Ukrainian, makes military age people around the world dream to be a volunteer in their foreign legion It's very powerful
This is a great, insightful and wise analysis. Thank you. I recommend reading it to everyone. #UkraineInvasion #Russian
"The final ruin of England could only be accomplished by an English government acting under orders from Berlin. But that cannot happen if England has awakened beforehand. For in that case the defeat would be unmistakable, the struggle would continue, the idea would survive."
"The difference between going down fighting, and surrendering without a fight, is by no means a question of "honour" and schoolboy heroics. Hitler said once that to accept defeat destroys the soul of a nation. This sounds like a piece of claptrap, but it is strictly true."
- GEORGE ORWELL, "THE LION AND THE UNICORN: SOCIALISM AND THE ENGLISH GENIUS (1941)"
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Thank you for this very well written and informative thread. This was the very best that I read on twiter since the beginning of this war.
Amazing thread combining history with present on the ground analysis. 👏
Amazing thread!
Thanks for your great work, itvis godly useful. What do you think about the possibily to user nuke or big bombs by Poutine to overdrive the defeat coming?
Bah! What a thread. I loved it. Thank you very much.
Profoundly informative analysis. Thank you for this enormous effort. Another example highly supportive of the mythos is the legendary Libyan fighter Omar Mukthar.
You just gave me enough hope to maybe be able to sleep for more than three hours
Very very useful insights… I learned a lot
Yes. Finland in 1939-1940.
Wow, amazing thread! Thank you!
My first thought at the conclusion: If Ukraine emerges from this intact, it is going to be a force in Europe propelled for a generation by the energy of the February 2022 War mythos…
very informing. thank you!
Very long thread but I think it’s on the money. Putin planned a raid on a grand scale, not a war. He expected to decapitate the government and that the bulk of the people would gladly support him. Ukraine is making Russian conscripts pay for that miscalculation.
Amazing thread! Thanks so much🙏🏻
Wonderful thread.
This was fantastic! Thank you.
You see this in the US South and the myth of the Lost Cause. And for decades it was (still is?) called the War of Northern Aggression. They are still fighting it. And close to winning. 😡
EPIC very interesting analysis. @jkass99 this could be relevant to future podcasts.
just like Troy.
I've read through your thread all in one breath. Congratulations!
Ukraine already had a national mythos. But with this war we are seeing it in opposition to Russia, and in successful opposition. These will be the stories, the memories that drive the mythos and patriotism of Ukrainians for generations.
Yeah, at this point I don’t see any chance for Ukrainian people giving up. Even if they are temporarily cowed, they’re going to be pissed and rebellious.
Amazing and enlightening thread. Thank you. And I hope your laptop starts working again. 👍 twitter.com/kamilkazani/st…
Now my laptop died and wouldn't turn on again, so typing from phone
受益匪浅 很棒的文章
Brilliant analysis IMO. You've helped me understand some of the complex reality. Go Ukraine!
This is my first time seeing a lot of this info, thanks for putting in the time to share.
Fantastic thread, I’ve learned much. Thank you!!
Thank you very much for this thread.
Gd analysis. Imo Ukraine will win for sure as long as nuclear action taken out of scenario. Huge hinterland to regroup away from any city bombardment. Potential partisans in million++. Never ending supply guns , stingers supplies money food etc to come. Highly motivated.
Fantastically illuminating thread, Kamil. Thank you. On the practical side, do you think the UKR army has the capacity (let alone the desire) to counter-attack / roll back RU ground forces anywhere outside urban theaters? Ambushes aside. If not, can they win w/out that ability?
Very good question: just stopping your enemy from doing whatever they want to do equals giving up initiative permanently. It may boil down to will to fight on the Russian side rather than simply throwing in more resources.
On CNN they had an expert on who said he believed UKR was leaving a lot of the small cities in order to prevent them from being physically destroyed and focus on the urban areas.
If Putin is trying to invade or attack a NATO member, Russian generals depose him. Everyone loses, including the Russians, their families, their possessions, their good lives. Not even Stalin, who was a bloodthirsty murderer, had the courage to do this madness.
Wow. Best thread I've read yet by anyone. And I just read your Chechnya thread !
Incredible thread.
Thanks for very well written analysis. Fingers crossed for Ukraine, they will need all luck and support to fight these terrorists.
Excellent and thank you. Hopefully in this global world, we don’t need those myths who require human sacrifice.
Thanks, I like How balanced your Views are.. History Repeats
A-z explanation, greate work! 👍🏻
Well, almost right. Nuclear power is a big myth, too. Putin has it. And it's a real kinetic shit, also.
poland a classic example
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Amazing and informative thread. Thank you.
Brilliant thread. Thank you.
interesting and smart thread, but Putin lost this war and execution will be tommorow -stocs and rubel price, imagine to wake up in situation that you must pay 4 car rtv, smartfon etc 3x then 3 days before, russians are resilient but even 4 them it will be shock, so thay have cd
no other way but kick out putin and make new deal with rest of the world - including reparations 4 Ukraine and drow back their military from ocupied parts of Ukr.
super educational thread ! thanks for taking up your time to spread the words !
Wow. Just wow 👏
If there's one person who can wield myth, it's probably a comedian
Even in case when Russia doesn't technically lose and some source of armistice/agreement is achieved, Ukraine already won. Why? Many describe this conflict as kinetic. Bullshit. Human conflicts or interactions are not kinetic. They are mythological and run by myths
This is utterly fascinating. Thank you.
Everyone hates a min-maxer.
Amazing. Thank you.
Damned brilliant piece, thank you !
Ogromne wrażenie robi Pana praca!
I don’t know if Russia or Ukraine will win this battle - it depends so much on logistics and factors I cannot see. However, every day Ukraine holds with courage is another level of solidification of Ukrainian resolve to make any occupation pure hell for Russia. Myths and martyrs.
Every single Ukrainian soldier that falls convinces more to take up arms. The ideology of “righteous battle” is no myth. These people REALLY seem to believe in their battle and their cause. I don’t see a scenario where Russia is able to subjugate them, regardless of occupation.
Thank you so much for this. I need to find where you are teaching and sign up.
This is an amazing thread
What a good read ✌️
Helluva thread, thanks for posting.
Kamil, please join @PeterCorless , @int_osic on their Twitter spaces, you’d add some wonderful thoughts. Guys check out this 🔝 Twitter thread.
Perhaps the most impressive thread on war possible on twitter 🙏
Thank you for your thorough post. I can understand much more. And agree with much. I hope this brings discussion that it is worth while.
Excellent. I loved the last part especially. Congrats. And I hope you're right
👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
Holy shit! That was a journey!!! Reasoned, resourced... 11/10, absoloodle. Thank you, internet stranger-man!
Fantastic thread, really insightful 👏👏👏
Thank you so much for all this info. Brave!
Thermopylae, Camarón, etc.
Nice read. I agree technically russian military is not very good. But still they should have enough fire power to destroy Ukrainian airforce and air defenses before or as they move in, and they didnt even do that. Its really strange
Beautiful. Thank you for this
Amazing read. Thank you.
excellent thread ty
While your thread is interesting, on this particular point I think you are ignoring the huge number who were utterly destroyed and never recovered - enemies of Rome for example, starting with Carthage, but also including Gaul. More recent: native Americans, Africans…list is long
And from a ‘myth perspective’ (though not total annihilation) Japan and of course Germany after WW2, come to think of it. The victorious allies pretty much rooted out any martial myths and made them taboo in ‘civilised society’.
wonderful thread
this was an amazing read. thank you! today, i heard former FBI agent @selectedwisdom say on #MeetThePress. if Ukraine can resist for one week it will be over for Russia. 🙏
Great read, thanks for posting!
Thank you very much for this well-informed and compellingly-argued analysis. One question — how can it be that the evolution and relative preparedness of Ukrainian forces has escaped the attention of Russian military intelligence? Or did no one want to give Putin that report?
Seems like a colossal blindspot on an institutional scale—beggars belief.
Could it be the Ukrainian troops are capable but it's in combination with cause and myth that make them seem so powerful and that humanity part of the equation doesn't exist or is unrecognized in Russia?
It didn't. That's why he launched full scale invasion.
cost benefit analysis report was given but it was not taken into account
Post this thread to your Substack. Since you're in Moscow, be safe!
Very good. I’ll have to read some of your articles. Which ones cover all this?
Fascinating the complete thread.
This is an incredible thread. The Opus for the early days of this invasion.
Thank you for the amount of time and resources it took to put this together Kamil. Cheers.
The best read I have come across Kamil. Thank you for doing this.
Thank you so very much for this lesson, @kamilkazani
Excellent thread, Kamil. Just one thing. In your bio, it should read @TheWilsonCenter
Wow. Thanks. I feel like I just finished a class at West Point that West Point doesn’t teach …yet.
👏👏👏👏👏
I am glad I found your threads. Looking forward to more.
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Wow! Great thread! Thank you for posting!
Good thread, but a bit to optimistic. Bielorruss is probably joining in, as are the Tchechens, (and Transnistians?); there is progress at 3 different lines of offense of the Russian army (SOUTH; EAST; NORTH). I think resistance is stronger than expected but still insufficient.
This is one reason why Israeli soldiers take the following oath of loyalty, ‘Masada shall not fall again.’
Excellent thread full,of information & historic correlation. Thank you, Kamil, for persevering even on your phone. Thumbs up.
Very insightful. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and insight
Just wanted to add one more 'thank you so much' to the many others. It was so interesting and educational I didn't want it to end. Now off to read a bit more about Ivan's Oprichniki.
This is so true. Sitting in Tulum rn reminds me of how Mayan civilization fell because they believed the myth of the superiority and the emperor mistakenly believed by fighting and losing he would destroy his myth. Instead he surrendered and was assassinated and the myth died
Remember that viruses and bacteria did most of the killing for the Europeans back then. Based on the knowledge about pathogens at the time it’s quite understandable that they believed such a myth
Oh totally, also they came with horses and guns. Totally unseen before
Thank you very much for your detailed explanation!
Excellent! cristal clear
Thanks for putting that much time and effort to write this thread.
That was fascinating, and I learned a lot. Thank you.
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1. Why would fighting separatist in the Donbas be enough to harden Ukrainian military to fight Russian regulars? Seems like very different combatants... 2. If he's losing, wouldn't Putin be MORE likely to consider city-leveling bombing? He mentioned nukes twice now...
It may sound strange, but the separatists are better at fighting than the soldiers of the Russian army. The Russian army abandoned young soldiers who had not been shot. Who know nothing and die almost without resistance.
01.03.2022 путін скидає бомби на Харків,. Київ. Знищена Волноваха. Суми, Чернігів, Конотоп обстріли. Ви взагалі розумієте що Києву 1300 років, князь Київа москву заснував, а путін любить історію, і путін скидає ракети бомби на Київ
Он не только заснував , он перехал в Москву и теперь сидит там
Do not confuse propaganda for losing. Russia is running a very soft "fight" right now, not looking to harm civilians or the infrastructure of Ukraine. Slow steady progress is seen on every Russian advance, Russia controls Ukraine air now. Point 2 of yours: let's hope not.
This person ignores nearly a decade of brutal war by Russia against states further east. No Ukrainian has seen actual war. Do a search for 'Grozny' to see a true war raged by Russia. Let's hope for Russia to stay on course. None want to see the other option.
Totally agree. The OP does see that Russians are not fighting a full scale war but a special operation. What he does not see is that - to my knowledge - only 1/3 of the Russian forces have entered Ukraine yet and that no heavy bombing has been carried out so far.
I believe it's about two thirds now
I dunno, Grozny battle was 23 years ago, i wonder whats 40-ish years old veteran is doing right now, probably only few numbers still active in military.
Yeah, and only 20 thousand Russians were there. Lets say, they did not send 18 year old's into Grozny due to experience of their enemy. They had to be experienced soldiers. The battle was in 1999. You really think they send soldiers of 45-50 into Ukraine?
He mentioned Checnya, it's a tiny region and Russia lost the first war by the way. It's not proof of a powerful army, even though I DO believe Russia has one.
With his economy completely crumbling under his power, it is unlikely he will last long. It's even very plausibele the Russian people themselves will end his tyranny. And even if Ukrain falls, there will be a guerrilla war making Putins life a hell.
Давайте я немножко расскажу о русских. Имел опыт общения со старым советским военным пилотом. Итак: особым предметом его гордости было то, как он летал на Ту-22м с ядерной боеголовкой и пугал мир. Мир был на грани ядерной катастрофы, но благодаря командиру обошлось.
К чему я это? Русские любят блеф и поднятие ставок. И путин тут не исключение. Он играет роль мачо, которому все равно, нажать кнопку или нет. На самом деле весь конфликт развивается на повышении ставок и демонстрации какой crazy, и:" видите, вы думали я войну не начну? Начал
Видите? А думаете я кнопку не нажму?" Старый лис Байден его раскусил, как мне кажется. Он прочитал Путина. И сейчас его разорвет руками украинцев. Украина не проиграет.
are you sure those where only the "local" separatists and not russian trained soldiers too to keep ukraine aways from those zones for 8 years? Also Putshit is mostly afraid of his own ppl being informed with real facts, thats why the propaganda TV all repeat the same always
Also: Ukraine has hung on long enough that aid and weapons are now pouring into the country, even as the Ukrainians strangle Putin's supply lines. twitter.com/michaelbirnbau…
(They need to be Russian-made, because that's what Ukrainian fighter pilots can jump into and use from day 1.)
Damn near best thread of 2022 I’ve read.
I wonder how we could view other wars through the mythological lens What did the defeat of the US do for the mythos of the North Vietnamese or Taliban, and how did it/will it affect the far future Thank you, very very fascinating perspective
unroll please
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day!
Se Putin está tentando invadir ou atacar um membro da OTAN os generais russos depoem ele. Todos perdem, inclusive os russos, suas famílias, seus bens, suas boas vidas. Nem Stalin que era um assassino sanguinário teve coragem de fazer essa loucura.
If Putin is trying to invade or attack a NATO member, Russian generals depose him. Everyone loses, including the Russians, their families, their possessions, their good lives. Not even Stalin, who was a bloodthirsty murderer, had the courage to do this madness.
Amazing thread. Connected many dots for me, both today’s news and deep history. 10/10 Would read more.
you need to be paid for this wonderful work. how can people support your writing?
I hope the mythos of the Chechens is crushed - they seem to be quite brutal even to their own people! Nice thread. Good info. TY
They came back after being displaced to Kazakhstan and were very tough against Russia in their wars recent and distant past. They have troops loyal to Putin to fight.
It looks like the guy with the power over Chechnya now, Kadyrov, is aligned with Putin. If he is removed somehow, is it possible that other Chechen leaders may not be as favorable to Putin?
It was an underling who died. Kadrydov is very much alive and well.
It looks like even that underling did not die unfortunately. It seems both are very cruel men.
I think check sources twice times 3 to get closer to the truth of something. Lots of faked stuff. Yes these men are cruel fanatics. They are driven and can't be reasoned with except by force.
Just in. I think Putin maybe actually thinking of the usual city levelling strategy now. twitter.com/IgorKossov/sta…
Kyiv got carpet-bombed at night. I had to sleep to regain my strength but I heard periodic rows of explosions throughout the night.
Thank you very much. Most interesting text I have read on this topic.
Thank very much amigo. very good work, learned a lot. But what should Russian people do then?
Barcelona deffend, 1714. Great example of it.
Outstanding thread. Thank you for this.
The most qualified and explained info flood that i read until now about this bullshit war. 👏 Thank you for your effort.
Yes. The glorious defeat. Canadians made fun of polish cavalry "charging German tanks" with no understanding if how this contributed to the Polish story. Even as they celebrated, mourned and cursed Dieppe. Nations can't understand each others spaces?
But they are built the same way. Blood and honor. Valiant battles, contested defeats and sacrifice. Always sacrifice.
The learned make fun of this when in the lap of luxury. I like to think that when shit hits the fan st least some realize that the good kings die for the people.
What a powerful thread...
Except ots delusional
Putin expected invasion over in one day in a state that has 44 million people been armed for a decade with US weapons in a territory of a comparable size stretching from New York city to Toronto and Chicago and Raleigh.
You make a very important point about Russian mythology and ideology- power. The perception of power is EVERYTHING in Russian politics, and Putin is not a young- or well- man these days. He’s making moves and mistakes, and his people will not respond well.
これもう使えないのか
Excellent, thank you so much!
2/2 ...Admirers of the latters will always tend to despise the former as dishonorable. While admirers of the formers will always tend to think of the latters as brainwashed idiots. An eternal question which remains.
1/2 Resist like Czechs/surrender like Italians Or resist like Vietnamese, Afghans/fall like Germans, Japanese?
For us Czechs the events of 1938/39 and 1968 are the biggest sources of national shame ever seen. This is why on the first day of war the words on everybody's lips was "už žádný Mnichov", no more Munich. I hope all the help we are providing right now eases that historical burden.
The 1938/39 shame was on French & British, not Yours.
The question "Should we have defended ourselves" is still a popular point in childish history discussions in pubs tho :D
1/3 Over the years I have heard similar divagations from other choosed options of resistance (Vietnamese, Palestinian, Iraqi and Afghan refugees);
2/3 people from places with victorious resistances or not so much, where even today the price for a long ago victory or to keep fighting, are still being paid...
3/3 Anyway, shame must always fall on/be against those who attack (and those who omitts), Not against those who are attacked (and have to find ways to resist defending themselves, in way or another).
Thank you!
Thank you Mr.Galeev. Very interesting and useful thread.
Good thread bro What's your take on the fact that Russia starts to bring their MICBM in the open? You believe Putin is ready to go for nuclear? I agree he may underestimate Ukraine's strength. However Russia may win the war once they enter Kyiv.
GREAT analysis. Thank you
Excellent thread. As a Finn I agree to the logic here. The myth of heroic defense during WWII - despite having technically lost and submitted to a harsh peace treaty - still keeps the general opinion very much pro defensive military and conscription but much against offensive war
Very interesting and enlightening thread, thank you. So far I've only read foreign military experts underscoring how much the Ukrainian armed forces' equipment were old, Soviet-era weapons. And the mythology point is very true.
BRILLIANT, BRILLIANT, BRILLIANT. 👏👏👏 🙏🙏🙏 👏👏👏
Waiting for your book!!!
That's what De Gaulle understood when he invented the "every french resisted the nazis" and "real france was the résistance", it built the myth he thought the country needed, instead of "you lost in less than a week, got yourself a dictator and helped Hitler genocide jews"
But mythos can hobble you. Brexit was built partly on exploitation of WWII mythos while Germany's mythos had been destroyed so it could happily live and breathe in present reality.
Please write a book about this conflict in the same style. Id buy copies for everyone i know
I will add to the mythology from my country's hustoty. Czechoslovakia was established in the end of Great War, 1918, with legions trapped and fighting Red Army. Legions managed to control whole Transsiberian magistrale, leaving for home through Japan. Myth building
strong and confident nation after over 300 years of being ruled from Vienna. After Hitler came to power, Czechoslovakia started preparing for war building defense lines, training military, equiping. Year 1938 came and Hitler was too afraid to just attack. Nation was
ready to fight, morale high, eventhough realizing Reich was stronger. Hitler called a metting with Daladier, Chamberlain and Mussolini and got Munich Treaty ensuring him "right" to occupy borderline regions. Czechoslovaks stood alone but still ready to fight. President refused
He ordered to surrender, "saving lifes". It crushed the myth. And no matter fighting later in war - fighters at RAF, legions in Russia and Africa, unique assasination of Heydrich - the myth was not reborn. Sure, commies taking down many brave people after the war didn't help.
Latvia is similar. We also gained independence in 2018, in desperate struggles that created myths. At the beginning of WW2, when the USSR imposed an ultimatum, the head of state decided to save lives (it did not save, cleansing, arrests began, many thousands deported).
This whole thread is great on the history of conventional war. Troops on the ground. Which he is obviously losing. But, NATO response? Nuclear option of "bear with a sore head?" He can already see this.
In the first third of the thread, there is a lot on ministerial "court politics" history and people - but nothing about their options later, given a losing Putin?
This sort of thing for instance?
A thread on Russia It will be becoming clear to those around Putin, the first and second tier of ‘siloviki’ (security apparatus), oligarchs and technocrats that make up the ‘greater Kremlin’, that whatever happens with this war,
The world leaders have to create a new global security architecture to solve this #UkraineRussiaWar
Does Klausewitz ever mention "a bunch of pussies"? Asking for a friend.
Amazing thread, thanks for that!
Thank you, great thread
BRAVO SIR. GREAT READ!!!!!!
Churchill's very point in 1940 (see war diaries)
By far the best thread on this that I’ve seen. Integrates the geopolitical/strategic aspects of this war very well with both history and the underlying ideology of the leadership in Moscow. Thank you 🙏
"I don't need a ride, I need more ammunition". The myth is secured.
This excellent thread appears to build upon Yuval Noah Harari writings in Sapiens. Brilliant book.
Thank you Kamil, very helpful info. Pls note your Twitter handle ‘@WoodrowWilsonCenter’ needs correcting to @TheWilsonCenter otherwise you might be thought a mythological academic :)
Stunning! Thats storytelling par excellence! And i mean it positively!
This is A THREAD of KNOWLEDGE🤓 but I'm afraid that the end of the Putin myth will not come without damage
Wow, really long but I loved it. Thanks.
👏👏👏👏👏
Absolutely amazing analysis. Thanks!
So will Hong Kong
This is rather long winded diatribe made of half-truths and fiction.
In Poland we call this kind of kinetic defeat a "moral victory". Great thread!
Thank you for great thread, very informative and historicaly grounded! Only one question torments me. How likely is that Putin will use nuclear weapons? Now he is squeezed into a corner, the economy is collapsing, the main goals of the special operation have not been achieved.
My concern/fear as well…
I think that the next scenario could be - he just points a nuclear weapon at Europe or Ukraine and says - give up, otherwise I will press the button. This completely goes against the rhetoric of peaceful liberation of Ukraine from neo-nazis, but his ego is too big to lose
Stop worrying about this, Seriously. You do not understand the gravity of that concern. Also Putin doesnt do shit, he orders someone to do it for him. And do you truly believe there is someone who would obey a command that basically dooms the world?
At this point I really believe he would do anything And hes the president if he orders someone to do it they habe to do it no matter what they think or want
It wouldn't be the first time in history that sections of an army refuses to obey direct orders that they feel are totally misguided. It's one thing to accept to level a city. It's another to accept to press the button that will end up vitrifying the entire earth
I agree But that doesn't mean it couldn't happened
I am sure, that after RUS use nukes, entire EU and NATO would be determined to destroy every russian city. There would be no peace talks, only RUS unconditional surrender.
Van Russia even launch nukes? They're probably full of mold and rust
I guess they keep it in some state of "workable".
I wouldn't be surprised if one of them exploded before they could use it
I would prefer russian ICBMs failing at launch. It would be much more hilarious, also much better than having nuclear explosions nearby.
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Many thanks for this thread 👍
Would we say we see this happening in Aleppo?
Thanks 🙏 an excellent and easy to understand explanation
100% truth, fate shows Poles. Religious separateness and persecution of faith on the part of Orthodox Russians allowed us to preserve the national identity in the peasant strata. Each national uprising is a messianic myth that grew stronger and stronger.
It resulted in the Battle of Warsaw in 1920 and then Solidarnosc in the 1980s
Poland is the best example.
Really loved this thread, fascinating, thanks Kamil
Great analysis, great context. Thanks.
Dear Mr. Fantastic Job !
Thank you Kamil for another great thread. Ukraine vs Russia combat experience a real 👁️ opener (also key to understanding Vietnam vs US War btw). Does it also follow that Ukraine has older troops to call on?
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day!
Thank you for this thread. Good read 👍. However, I’m surprised the nuclear arsenal is not mentioned at all (or I missed it). Imo Russia can’t afford to lose and will win by all means necessary. It’s no secret that Putin sees the deployment of nukes as a viable strategy.
If a single nuke gets fired, whole Russia gets glassed by NATO. Putin knows the rules of the game and there are too many people around him that would like to survive this war. Taking an entire nation or half the world with you is not an option.
The fact that everyone assumes that Putin isn’t crazy enough to actually push the button concerns me and therefore people underestimate him. He won’t just back off and accept defeat. For him that would also mean the end. So imo he’s all in. All or nothing. Scary
In that case I hope that the members of his government have some good backup plans ready.
Thank you for your thread! after reading i think #Putin is Iwan the terrible 🤔
incelemenizi tavsiye ederim.
How long can Ukraine hold on....
Outstanding work. Thank you, sir. Really, really good.
Thanks for the thread. Great job. I had no idea about wars and I have learned a lot. I hope and wish that he is right and Ukraine wins. In fact, it has been the Russians who have asked to negotiate. Hoping this ends.
"But if you lost after the brutal and bloody fight your mythos is alive." That is true. We know that, as we remember 1939: Westerplatte, Wizna, Bzura, Warsaw. 1944 Warsaw Uprising. But also victories like Battle of Britain, Monte Cassino, Falaise.
IPNtv: The Unconquered
The Unconquered: riveting story of Poland in WW2 narrated by Sean Bean. www.theunconquered-movie.com
youtube.com
...and, sadly, the South in the US Civil War
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quite the thread! nice work 😊
And that's how it worked in history of #Poland. That's how we were able to restore our independence and rebuild our state in 1918 after 123, 4 generations of occupation and just 2 years later beat the bolsheviks. Good luck #Ukraina!
A quick one. If Ukraine has over 400,000 veterans, territorial defence force etc, why are they asking for foreigners to volunteer in combat, arming ordinary citizens and convicts? Why are MPs posing with arms in photoshoots instead of posing with actual combat troops?
cus even with that 400k, a lot of them don't actually want to fight, and russia still has more troops than them. even if those troops aren't experienced, big numbers still mean a lot in war
Because the breaking news is, most people don't enjoy dying, even if they feel the cause is right. Plus, Russia still has the numerical advantage in every way.
Because they are poorly equiped
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best thread I've read. I would appreciate more material like this. Thank you
Fantastic thread, I learned so much. Thank you for taking the trouble to write it.
Ok. He's losing. He realizes that at some point. What are his options? - kill himself - start a nuclear war (which will kill himself + everybody else) - ? He's an animal losing a fight, but with control of nuclear weapons.
je pense que ça peut t'intéresser
Très intéressant en effet !
Thank you ! Lots of info, I feel a bit smarter now and it makes me want to learn more
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Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day!
Also, I have to point out another point of view: Zelensky sold EU the perfect deal: EU has been fighting to find ways to make Russia weak for years, half of the time losing the influence to the propaganda. Now they can prove that EU is strong and stays behind their convictions.
Wow!! Best thread (by far) I have read on the war in Ukraine!
Many thanks, brilliant thread.
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I still kinda think a Russian last resort nuke strike to go out with a bang is possible and that's the thing I fear the most, I think.
Rule of thumb: Never give up without putting up a fight, loss of lives can be repopulated, loss of morale and the sense of belonging cannot.
Excellent thread. The last part made me realize why the Masada myth was/is so central to the IDF and Zionism.
THANK YOU! This Thread made my Day. <3
Incredible thread, thank you.
So, at the end Putin will find his Waterloo in Ukraine.
that was something else! amazing exploration of this event
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Just brilliant! Never read such long thread but today I just kept on going…
in no way i mean to start whataboutery or defend russia but hasn’t USA been doing the same shit since ages?
wow, such a great thread, thank you <3
These last tweets really delivered. Incredible thread, thank you. 😊
Thank you very much for this magistral thread 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍❤
Thank you for this.
Thank you for taking the time to write this and inform so many
muito interessante, da uma olhada.
Just sayin'...still just sayin'
Interesting thread. Thank you.
@thethreadreaderapp Unroll
Man you have nailed it. Tells lot about civilisation that have existed for centuries.
Thank you. Gread (th)Read!!
Most amazing thread ive read so far! Great work
Brilliant thread. I learned a hell of a lot, with a lot to think about. But on the last point of losing the last battle with the mythos intact, what about Byzantium? That mythos should still be intact, right? But they have never tried to get Constantinople back.
Well, the mythos survived and they made moves in the direction of retaking the city but it didn't work out after all
Megali Idea - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.m.wikipedia.org
Wow, excellent! Thanks for pointing this out to me. Indeed, the Μεγάλη Ιδέα tends to prove the point about the survival of the mythos and its desire to be realized. The mythos has made sure that Constantine XI died heroically.
Thanks, I didn't know that legend "a popular legend which endured for centuries that Constantine had not actually died, but had been rescued by an angel and turned into marble..." whatever the truth is, the confusion of accounts is perfect for the myth.
Excellent thread. Thank you. God bless Ukraine.
Hats off. This is the analysis to make them all understand what this is all about. Thank you.
Fantastic Thread, Kamil. Just one more question, How do you value Nuclear Weapons factor in a hipothetical and expected Army escalation between OTAN/USA and Russia?
Brilhante... Agradeço pelas palavras e concordo com boa parte disso tudo.
Brilliant thread. Thanks for this!
This was breathtakingly good. If you've written any books, am off to buy them NOW.
Oui, le meilleur thread sur le sujet !!
So many words, like a nervous woman, and ignoring Russia's purpose and intent, like a bitter woman. .
One of the greatest threads I have ever read. Gives me a lot to think about. Thank you.
This thread was so educational and informative and presented in an excellent, easy to follow manner with relevant and familiar examples to illustrate your point. Absolutely brilliant. I learned so much…thank you. 💯
A very good example to this is Gallipoli campaign in WW1. A battered, sick man Ottoman Empire stood well against the British Empire and held its ground for months, where W.Churchill had predicted that they would take Dardanelles in less than 1 month.
Wow; incredible summary. Quite informative
дякую, було круто!
Gracias 👏🏻
Thank you for this fascinating analysis and history lesson!
Fascinating, thank you!
Just to say the thread is great. I have some questions. I'd expect way more firepower specially ground-ground missilery as seen previously in the Donbas before sending infantrymen, what happened? where is the air power used in Syria and the electronic warfare? damage control?
excellent, and thank you for not bringing up the siege of melos.
WOW Kamil, Thank You so much for this deep, rich, and exhaustive explanation of the actors, and backgrounds of this war. I appreciated a lot also the philosophical views illustrated. BTW I am from Venice. ( We are contemporary people with no alived memories sadly from the past
Very interesting insights as always
#SpotOn Thread with in depth sociopolitical clues ... @carloslargom @dgg030 @geoestratego
Hope you’re right.
This a good analysis. Too very fucking long for a Twitter thread, though. Thanks
Superb read. Accurate and on point.
Your thread blowed my mind. Thank you.
Magnifico companheiro ! Belo texto, belas informações ! Seguindo você agora ! Abraço <3
A very insightful and helpful thread, thank you very much. And bringing up the Oprichniks (which I had never known about before) reminded me of a bit from Jim Butcher's "Codex Alera": "But battles are won within the minds and hearts of the soldiers fighting them." (Cursor's Fury)
Great thread, thank you for this!
Amazing thread, thank you.
Thank you. That was very profound and enlightening.
kamil, thanks, that is deep!
Very good analysis.
Thank you for the analysis.
Thank you 🙏 This was very interesting.
Epic thread, thanks for sharing it!
The fall of Jerusalem, restored after 2000 years
This is the best thread to read about this war, yet it is not taking into account one important topic - the rat in the corner (with nuclear warheads) scenario.
Putin is not stupid, he is aware of the myth (see the imagery they create of him) and how much a percieved loss would endanger him personally. He would not have gotten to where he is, if he gave up easily. Doesn't that make him especially dangerous with his WMD?
Thank you for this informative trip down history lane in regards to Russia and Ukraine. 👍🖖
Great thread. Amazing read and well made analysis.
Great read!!! 👏👏👏💪🇺🇦👊
WHAT descendants? Putin has the power to kill the entire Ukrainian population with his nuclear weapons! And what would stop him? Not his conscience for sure!
Many will read your fascinating thread through the dark glass of their countries' struggle to survive. It brings up the best and worst in a people. My country, for example, is still blighted by the act of a few wealthy men several centuries ago. We call them our Parcel of Rogues.
Thanks god most people doesn't give a fuck about nationalistic myths and rate higher to save lives.
Thank you for this perfect class!
Great. Thx a lot for this very deep dive revealing so much surprising details.
Thank you for taking the time! Very very interesting!!
Bravo man, thank you for this!
Congrats, interesting thread. 40 miles of convoy north of Kiev seems an echelon to my non specialist eyes. U present a sufficiently armed for defence Ukrainian nation. Can you justify the appeal and mobilization to send weapons and funds for new weapons?
Russian convoy stretching back 40 MILES advances on Kyiv
A 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers and troop transportation was heading towards Kyiv on Monday, traveling from the border with Belarus towards the capital.
dailymail.co.uk
It's not all about the German war doctrine or the conversion of the Ukrainian people into soldiers. The issue is not just the Ukraine-Russia issue. It should not be tangent to what the satanist money barons who rule the world are planning. There is an effort for a new world order
Thanks for this fantastic thread.
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day!
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Wow this was really helpful. Thank you.
Prime example for this is Germany
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day!
Very interesting perspective. Thank you for the detailed presentation! 👏👏👏
This Thread is Saved to your Notion Workspace.
Thank you for this, such a good read!
Most informative thread I’ve read on this war since it began. Concepts such as PR-maxing VS efficiency-maxing and the functional aspects of the mythological space open up entire analytical dimensions. I will share as widely as I can. Thank you
Sir, thank you for an intriguing thread. Much to digest.
Even the history, the people of Kievan Rus'... Or Kyiv Saint Sophia Catedral'... Their values gives them moral strength, before mongols' invasion, during Russian Revolution of 1917, before Putin's invasion...
Kamil, thank you so much for this thread. I will try to spread it far and wide. Agree with most commenters that this is the best thread I've ever read on twitter.
Thank you very much for this thread, so enlightening.
Fantastic analysis, really looking forward to read more from you!
Thank you for this thread. I am thinking about mythology and the Confederacy right now. The Lost Cause myth is tearing the South apart.
Thank you. Very interesting!
I thought ppl spent too much time pondering these events, but now the max-thread-count proves it. Def didn’t expect to read a book this morning on Twitter. I’m not sure if the “max” rhetoric works for me, but uhhhh, well thought out opinion 🤷🏾‍♂️ Wen Cliff Notes ? Shoygu = Tartarian
Brilliant thank you 💙💛
Thank you so much for this most informative analysis!!! It seems American intel bought into the mighty Russian myth and expected Ukrainians to fold, per the briefing to the Congress Intelligent Committee. Ukrainians are proving them wrong. MAD RESPECT to all Ukrainians.
Great thread 👊 Can you do one on the strategic implications of the Ukraine War for the #CCP?
Thank you for this fascinating thread #SlavaUkraini
Yes, Paul Kagame, Rwanda is case in point....who started life as a Rwandan refugee in Uganda. There may be a million Ukrainians who have fled this week, but it won’t mean they (their children) won’t return with vengeance on their minds...if the Russians do manage to win now.
We need more!!!! This is so good!
I love how fucking memes is the conclusion of this thread.
So to recover their mythos, Russian leaders, esp Putin, will attempt the long, bloody war but never succeed because it’s really already a dead mythos. It suggests that Russia is heading to a very dark period unless there are enough Russians wanting new and non aggressive mythos.
Breathtaking
Fantastic tread and great points to mull over. Thank you!
thank you for this outstanding thread.
Warsaw uprising is good case study of this
“Digested by the conqueror” is a great line. Implies all you need to know.
Not sure I understand, could you take it again?
And this mythos theory is probably why the French wanted their own to free Paris in 1944 (after how the funny war ended). Very informative tweet. Thank you for your insights @kamilkazani .
Those who love to talk about "kinetics" also love to talk about how Clausewitz is outdated.
The Baltic tribes keep their mythos in folklore. It survives invasions, surrenders, occupations and purges. They spawn independent states every time there's a vacuum of power.
Poland is the best example of it.
That concurrs with my theory. In our case was the total opposite. Apparently futile resistance, ended in defeat, the fact that you resisted heavily catapults a reborning possibility in the future.
Can you tell me where I can find this Clausewitz quote, please?
Totally agree. It is like with "Warsaw Uprising" where Warsaw was destroyed in 1944. BUT... the myth of Warsaw that defended for much longer than expected, alone.. builds morale of Poles and is celebrated in Poland each year till today. In Ukraine will be the same.
See a history of Poland, not so distant in time
This also explains why the West’s adventures in Iraq and Libya were doomed as they didn’t understand that they were destroying the mythos of those countries and had no appetite to digest them. So they’re non-states, struggling to find a purpose
I didn't know many of this facts. Thank you!
Yes, it's true. Czechoslovakia submitted to Hitler. It's a subject of constant division in society. Should we defend ourselves or not. Unanswerable. However, a sad example from the Yugoslavian war. Those who took arms to defend changed to killing machines. Humanity evaporated.
That was the well-argued thread I've ever seen. Thank you for sharing it. It's a much valuable knowledge
Muchas gracias por su hilo . Utilizando el traductor , he leído con mucho interés su información porque tocan aspectos desconocidos para mí y son muy interesantes . Gracias de nuevo !!
Poland build its independence on the myths of uprising in 1830 and 1863.
Splendid thread! I want to thank you for dedicating your free time to write all this.
That's why Poland still exist. Because they poles bleed for the simple myth of the Polish State. That changed in extension and localization many times. But exist.
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Man this thread is absolute GOLD. Thank you. I just hope you're right.
Great example. The Serenissima was one of the great powers of the Mediterranean for half a millenium and now only history nerds and EUIV players even know that it was a thing.
Eu4 nerds xD
Also anyone who has ever been to Venice as a tourist?
Venice the memey floating city with cute boat rides is not Venice the proud merchant republic with its own language, identity and history.
A tourist visit to Venice is full of reminders of the merchant republic. How did it have its own language? Obviously there were local dialects, but didn't the elites all use Tuscan from the Renaissance onwards.
Vienna is the cute historic capital of a cute little mountain country but it's hard to do a tourist visit without becoming aware it was once the capital of a great empire.
Sure you see the edifices of a great empire but that is different from, and more importantly not as powerful as, a populace that believes the ‘myth’ that they were/are an empire - don’t need buildings for the latter.
"Although referred to as an Italian dialect even by some of its speakers, Venetian is a separate language with many local varieties"
Venetian language - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.wikipedia.org
I mean, yeah, everywhere in Italy has its own dialect. But Tuscan is what everybody in Venice was writing in from the 16th century onwards.
(Most of the time before that they were writing in Latin)
Henri is your brain proud of it's mirror image? History (the perception of it) shapes vissions and the Venice contribution to trade, interconnectedness as well as grandeur and imperial ambition is there for everybody to see and hear. Cities reflect that past in stone & spirit.
PUTIN HITLER I MORDERCA ZOSTANIE OSADZONY PRZEZ CAŁY ŚWIAT CHINY I TURCJA SA PRZECIW AGRESJI PUTINA !!!!!!!!
The Venetian Republic literally was restored though. It was re-founded in 1848 and governed itself for over a year before succumbing to Austrian forces.
1 year? Wow.
Un’interpretazione bizzarra, ma non inutile…
Or Czechoslovakia 1938. 1968 was just a consequence of that.
Very interesting and good thread, Kamil, but you have to excuse my chuckle at the part about the Republic if Venice being UNLIKELY to ever being restored.
This is completely ahistorical.
Same for the Dutch republic in the same period.
I love your optimism.
So your conclusion: russian is as weak as getting defeated in 4 days?
спасибо, очень интересно. однако надеюсь, что Путин действительно не пользуется инетом и не прочтет этот тред ).
Incredible piece - thank you 🙌
Bravo 👏👏👏
See e.g. .
zelenskyy has done an absolutely incredible thing and created a dynamic where the russians killing him will make the situation infinitely worse for them
I recall a lecture of scholar Afsah Ebrahim who spoke about the necessity for a nation to have an "usable past"
Exactly! We're watching a central Ukrainian mythos being built before our eyes. Historians of all kinds should be taking frantic notes, bcuz win or lose this will be part of Ukranian self-image for generations (centuries)
This could lead to the worst imaginable outcome for Russia, to be resisted by Ukraine WITHOUT NATO! Think about what that will mean long term for them.
and a third one. Again Ukraine has been propped up since before the supposed revelutionary war by the U.S. government. I hope these Republics can have their independence from Ukraine because it was a free election.
"A terrible beauty is born." 👇🏽
I worked in eastern Ukraine for 7 years. Witnessing the deserved 🌍outpouring of support for 🇺🇦 is amazing. As Yeats put it after the supposedly failed Easter Rising's leaders' executions "A terrible beauty is born." That was the end of the British Empire. poetryfoundation.org/poems/43289/ea…
Thank you so much for this. Gives me an understanding of what is happening and why. Must read for everyone!
In other words, this is the ultimate wordcel vs. shaperotator showdown
This is a modern myth in the making. The bravery of the Ukrainians after Putin literally claimed that Lenin invented Ukraine. This war is the crucible they will forge anew national myth from. Poor bastard Russian conscripts are the grist for it.
This!!!! Incredible thread , just incredible - Ty🙏🏽- posted tiny bit about myth, legend, heroes - u have pulled it all together what we have been witnessing - it isn’t kinetic (manufactured ) shock &awe , it is real, unplanned , amazing to see this irl as tragic as the event is
Exactly!!! 👏👏👏💪💪👌👌 well said!
Doesn't this make the threat of Putin unleashing the heavy missiles and flattening Kyiv etc. like he did Grozny, Syria etc. all the more likely?
What the upside there for Putin? This is not a small area like Chechnya that he can then have over to a vassal to rebuild.
Except there is no upside for Putin in any of this, so that is hardly a metric for likelihood, it seems.
He gambled on a far different outcome, which would’ve been glorious domestically for him if it went according to plan. But why gamble in the first place? Simplest explanation is that his domestic position is a lot weaker than it appears.
I think so too. The Russian harvest was very bad last year, too. I don't know if that is a factor.
So then, basically, Putin is toast. The question is whether he's willing, and able, to take the rest of us with him.
The first time I heard about Snake Island defenders I was sure that Putin lost - Ukrainians received immortal and unbeaten armor - tmyth as you explained, myth which will be alive for many generations in Ukraine - great
HITLER PUTIN MORDERCA MYSI SCIAGAC OBCE WOJSKA HA HA HA ZOSTANIE ROZLICZONY PRZEZ CAŁY ŚWIAT CHINY NIE SA ZA AGRESJA PUTINA I TURCJA !!!!!!!!
Very enjoyable reading. Thank you.
Aka the tchétchène myth army.
...and mortality is rising.
YEP.
The Russia-Ukraine war so far has had both heroic and horrific episodes. This is perhaps the strangest of them: the story of how a Russian riot police convoy went to conquer Kyiv on its own.
Hello! Do you have bibliography or papers to share about this concept of "myth"? Thanks~
I do not think you actually understand what is happening here, and what the major players are up to. This is political/war theater for the masses. It sounds like you are getting off on it.
Biden has been the top dog in Ukraine since before the 2014 revolution, including Victoria Nuland.
It is a puppet government that we colonized years ago.
Unfortunately, you words are quite vague. You need to be more specific with actual facts, not speculation
Imagine if the Russian population could wake from their indoctrination and realize they have the power to live free. Use the natural resources & wealth that is stolen by a select few to raise their standard of living to a level they never dreamed of…
I truly hope 🇵🇷 can come to the same realization.
What is happening in Puerto Rico?
Still a colony, bankrupted, feeling undeserving. Colonialism is a bitch.
I would be all for Puerto Rico's independence but is it true that the people there want it to become the 51st US state? Or do they want go become an independent nation
Currently, there is little appetite for independence. But I don't think the majority are interested in statehood. Not after all the disappointments and humiliations portrayed by the USA during Hurricane Maria and through the bankruptcy.
This is gorgeous
interesting thread, touching on many of your concepts
The "mythological space" where the state is invincible. Hence importance of foreign exposure/defeat of a state, could be Spain. Catalans, w Stockholm Syndrome, take note.
I recall some ppl wondering aloud why Putin would assassinate his enemies in foreign countries using novachuk & polonium 210, 2 methods that pinpointed Putin's culpability. It was Putin's attempt to bolster his mythos - I am so powerful I kill wherever/whoever/whenever (fear me)
Fantastic thread and analysis.
Jesus man. Kudos for the amount of work going into this thread.
Yes. Amazing thread. And this current Russian force doesn’t even have a myth. The only one acting on myth is the (short) man in the high castle. Wow. This will fail.
Thank you for taking the time to share these wonderful insights. Glory to the heroes! 🇺🇦
>They were not used to getting arrows in the face. [insert Mike Tyson quote here]
Uhm, obviously they *didn’t* have kinetic superiority. The guys with arrows did.
ehh didnt Moscow burned in 1571 (due to bad luck or the khanate debatable) but the 1572 raid was repelled
I am NOT for WW3 But being a Vet and a Christ loving man, I think Countries around the world who believe as I do should be standing beside them (Literally) Brings the military Aid Don't Sent It!! The USA and Germany Egged Puttin on every 15 minutes leading into this.
"Everyone thinks they are demigods until they get an arrow to the face." - Mike Tyson
Umm... I'm not sure what you are talking about, but crimean forces were defeated (heavily, ~20k rus vs ~60k crimean forces) in this battle in 1572 - battle of molodi. Moscow was burnt in 1571.
We had exactly same in Ukrainian football league before 2014
Yes! Russians experience existential dread of Chechens after what the did with russian conscripts in 1995. Everyone other see overveight sardaukaar cosplayers in fucking Prada boots. Yes, unlike russians they might not hesitate to torture and murder ukrainians, but come on.
I like this concept. As persian "immortals" failed against spartan/athenian phalanx. They didn't stand a chance against a competitive military strategy that believed on their own skills, and not overrun disbanded routing local armies.
Note that we don't really know very much about the "Immortals" from Persian sources, the majority of their descriptions being written by Greek authors. So probably take these comments with a grain of salt ;)
Welcome to Encyclopaedia Iranica
The Encyclopaedia Iranica is a comprehensive research tool dedicated to the study of Iranian civilization in the Middle East, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Indian subcontinent
iranicaonline.org
True that. Stand corrected.
Threader App please unroll
Would this thread last to the end of war?
You see that the European jets are going to be in Ukrainian airspace within 50 minutes from now. That Russian convoy that is north of Kyev might not be there for long….
NATO intervention?
Do you have any source?
Senior adviser to EU parliament says that jets given to Ukraine will be airborne “within the hour.”👇
Dear Kamil i spended a lot of time reading your whole post and in general I enjoyed the read. But yes at 1st Muscovites was defeated by Crimean Khan's however lately Ivan destroyed it during Battle of Molodi. Why Ivan's kung fu became better just only 1 year latter?
they mentioned it before, defeat without destruction led to his force being able to lick their wounds, learn, refocusing on victory
Well yes and no. The 2nd part of article I dont like it. It is based on some esoterics and not facts. If you know Muscovites is a predecessors to modern Russia with capital in Moscow and it became as it is mostly because they was in need to form state as Mongol empire was pushing
And in fact they did it 1st by destroying Mamai , latter Moscovits was able to take Kazan and after they succefuly defeated Crimean Khaganat. By that time the Mongol empire was almost close to non-existant and those victories of Moscovits has nothing to do with esoterics :)
Oprichnicks believed their own "press" to their detriment.
вопрос. нахера так далеко в историю лезть? взял бы к примеру чекистов в 17м году.
(You mean 1571 I think)
Maybe you mean Crimean attack on Moscow in 1571 (ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9A%D1…, oprichniks defeated, Moscow burned)? In 1572 there was the en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of…, in which a larger force of Tatars was defeated by Russian regulars.
Battle of Molodi - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.wikipedia.org
Picking off individual leaders of resistance. Myth of prohibition to resist. Sorry to digress, but rings true in Catalonia re Spain. Independent it's should read this thread on power of discourse.
M sorry but which ethnicity are tuvans?? Are they mongols??
Well.. thanks a lot… i blv my guess was not wrong… he just doesn’t look like russian..
Sure, he looks like a Central Asian horseman.😉
Only the people are real.
Amazing thread! Thank you very much.
Excellent insight, thank you.
For the mythological nature of human institutions see, Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari, Ch 2: "The Tree of Knowledge"; that of money see Ch 10: "The Scent of Money". These things exist only if you and your social context believes that they do.
I have been preaching this for years
Confidence and belief.
Holy moly! This is one of the most interesting threads on Twitter! Thank you!
When I saw the "we are here" speech I could feel Ukraine's national story bring refreshed and strengthened. 2014, and all the history and literature before it. I could feel it in my soul. This sounds cheesy... to the enlightened, but it's how things work.
Wow you should publish this It's highly educational 💡👍 Just gave me free education now
wait are you saying England is not real? bollocks
"Power is a myth". Tell that to all those who have been rounded up, killed, or put in concentration camps by Putin. They chose not to believe it and they were reminded violently that political power, like Mao said, grows out of the barrel of a gun!
You miss the point. Who rounded up and killed in people in all these criminal regimes? The soldiers and guards. Why? They obey orders because of the myth of power.
I see you've read Jacques Ellul (i.e., the discussion of myths). I applaud this analysis and your insights.
Excellent description & comparison. Memetic warfare in action.
Just like Finland in the Winter War. Finland firmly lost, but inflicted such a cost and prevented Stalin from his objective people remember it as a victory.
And a huge monstrous myth has been created around Zelensky. It's almost like an 80s action movie star.
Right? 😂😂✨✨ like the whole world is crushing on Zelensky BECAUSE he looks like the identifyable hero in mythological texts. It’s tapping into the collective consciousness in ways that are far more powerful than anyone anticipated. Mainly because Putin’s bad at psychology 😂
He's only good at terrorizing people under his boots.
Eh, it’s less that though that’s true, and more, the exact way he went about this created a mythological situation where no matter how Putin plays this, the Ukrainians are seen as victims, martyrs, and even heroes. It taps into the best of human nature, and they are who we want
we want to be - heroes and martyrs. Which is why so many people support Ukraine, and like Zelensky so much. That and they’re literally suffering a grave injustice right now. No matter what they’ve done, unless they bomb Russia first, it is extremely immoral and unjust to bomb
Wow ... Amazing. Thanks.
"Those who tell the stories rule society." -- Plato
Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Sunday, 27 March 2022 at 12:00 GMT+0000.
I understand what you are trying to say, but when bullets are flying above your head that is kinetic enough to me.
Excellent job! W chuj dobrego czytania!
I only wished everyone had this much furrier with the genkcide that’s going on in Yemen.
Well, ok, this is a good read. But you failed to invoke Ukrainian 'myths.' You erroneously say UKr left this mythological space. Sir, Ukr has so many freedom fighter myths, I would need to write all day. Remember Zaporozhian sich; that is in DNA of every Ukr. 1/2
2/2 And then great painter Repin, called Russian, hails from Ukraine. Have a look at the famous painting. It is his face writing the letter to the Sultan
Incredible thread. I don't personally have the expertise to be able to say that, yes, this is all true. But it has the ring of psychological truth—understanding of motivating forces on human behavior. And the tweets about the centrality of "myth" in conflicts is smart.
Thank you so very very much. I learned so much reading this tweet string. It puts a very very different perspective on the Ukrainian situation.
Clausewitz, nicht Wahr?
shades of Tigana here.
Really great thread. I would argue that this conflict is kinetic (in it's true form); and it is that, and the outcome which creates, promotes or destroys (hopefully in Russia's case, in this instance) myths.
замечательный тред, невероятно интересно и доходчиво, спасибо ❤️
What do you mean with „kinetic“? Thanks!
500% agree. You should put this thread in one article.
(Possibly sensitive)
There must be something about military analysts that makes them all so confidently right or wrong on every issue. This is the exact spot where you became confidently wrong.
I was thinking about it, Putin has tried to build this myth component in to his current strategy, but it’s failed. Russians grow up hearing about the bad fascists that their grandparents fought with and the glory of the Russian people is in this (Победа над фашизмом)
And he’s selling it via his propaganda to the Russian people - “we are liberating Ukraine from fascism”, otherwise people would think that he’s insane going against his own blood/family (as you probably know - the myth of brotherhood between Russia and Ukraine is big)
That’s why the propaganda works so well for the 40+ generation of Russians, they are born in the last decade of the USSR and believe the fascism myth. The 20-30 yo go out to protest and the ones who support the regime has been stripped of their humanity due to the constant abuse.
Putin’s been abusing his people since 2008, the repressions for speaking up were severe from the beginning. Standing up for your rights was a life-ruining event. For you and your family. Another myth of “моя хата с краю» grew out of proportion due to the memory of repressions.
No other unifying idea was introduced in the modern Russia since 1992. Ukraine has the EU idea, a better life of freedom and sovereignty - this is worth fighting for. Russians live with the idea of defending the glory of the past. They have nothing left, so they are demoralized.
This is a great soil for the propaganda seeds he’s been spreading since 2014. And this war will crush the moral even more. The result - the propaganda will keep getting more absurd. Russia’s war with myths is lost long ago and now we can just see it more clear.
They deserve independence.
Putin can pivot away from failure in Ukraine by saying that the West is now at war against Russia. So, let’s say there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine and that leads to some sanctions rollback, he then basically claims it as a win against the West and survives (for now).
I've read your thread till the end. Thank you, I learned a lot. Question remains how Putin will react to a defeat? Any historic examples of how tyrants react to the humiliation of defeat? Do they retreat, vent their anger internally? Or do they come back with a vengeance?
In this case vengeance could be a tactical nuke ... twitter.com/McFaul/status/…
The people who know Putin the best -- people I know in Russia -- are worried about his recent nuclear statement. The people who know him the least are saying it's cheap talk.
Putin always has a choice though...
Excellent analysis.
also the fact that many Ukrainians and Russians are related , those countries have too many bonds to risk this.
Even the russian civilians that do want Ukraine to be part of russia or become a russian puppet state wouldn't support putin if he leveled Ukrainian cities to the ground
I'm afraid of a Rotterdam 1940 scenario. Quite some parallels: Trying to seize & decapitate government through paratroopers, but failed. Unexpected fierce resistance in key points, leading to unwanted delays. Painful losses of elite troops.
German & Dutch supposed to be brothers, resistance seen as betrayal. No key cities captured yet. Air defences not sufficient, leading to vulnerabilities. One city leveled to the ground may force the Ukrainian leadership to prevent this from happening to the others...
You like to repeat this, but his leveling of cities have always been condamned
If Russia doesn’t score a convincing win, and the early rounds certainly don’t indicate that they will, then it strikes me as an internal conflict within Putin himself. A battle of his self-preservation (political) skills vs. his megalomania (personality needs). While he knows…
how to accumulate and wield power, I don’t know if he has the political savvy to finesse a situation. Has he ever had to (as he has no political adversaries/competitors)?
He could cause a major bomb to go off in say Moscow with horrendous casualties and then justify crazy action against Ukraine. I’m thinking he might even nuke a city.
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i'd really like to shove this post up teh rear ends of all those who now claim "different from 2014 these are real refugees" dont get me wrong, i 100% support welcoming any ukrainian refugee. but it displays the huge hypocrisy and racism of the tedious european refugee debate
Also everyone has a cellphone with a camera now. It’s much harder to completely destroy a city since people will broadcast the after effects
This cannot be emphasized enough - and we can translate languages - it’s as significant as the broadcasts of the vietnam era , or the footage shown at theatres in WWII
How about Putin's nuclear gesticulations? What's your feeling on this?
It will also not achieve his original goal to make the cities and people of Ukraine a part of Russia.
Blockades are not easy. Its very expensive, for one. Takes time. Bored stationary troops are vulnerable to ambush and counter-attack. Locals will inevitably break the blockade - finding ways to get in supplies, weapons, ammo, etc.
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 04:51 GMT+0000.
what do you think of nuclear weapons? Could Putin be unhinged enough to use them? I don't think so but opinions seem to vary.
You know this is really interesting--if Putin putting nuclear forces on alert (via a televised speech) was meant to unite Russia into a Cold War infused patriotism, it might *boost* the myth of Ukraine being easy to win. But if that doesn't work (doubt it will) what's next?
Putin is surrounded by boot-lickers, but dude must know he made a whoopsie. And he can't endure a long battle with the world with all those sanctions. Feels like some marginal way to "safe face" could get him to withdraw troops at this time and save the major military resources..
Amazing thread, btw. Holy shit--so good.
What are the chances of success of Russia just starving out these cities?
How about nuclear weapons?
After all, the Russians do not destroy the infrastructure of others. than military. In Ukraine, power plants, waterworks, and telephone communication are operating normally. I don't understand it. After all, these are strategic goals and Russia is not destroying them.
He actually started doing this 12 hours after you wrote it...
It seems like 🇺🇦 is trying to get the message out that they're treating POW very kindly, as well. Warm tea, letting them call home to mom. It's the sort of message that should be really demotivating, depending on who gets to see it.
You get housing if you are dead ... it's a basement apartment 6ft long with sunflowers growing on top!
"Now if you are dead, you can't get a housing." Best dead-pan one-liner I've read in a while.
You are delusional. Most of them don’t even know what they signed up for.
Who's delusional? Are you reading?
Worse. Significant number of conscripts.
Might add, sans the apartment, is the usual recruit
And it works, sadly. Just look at Belarus
Sounds similar to US military
So much this. Even a casual look will tell you that the Russians have always been poorly trained, poorly led and poorly motivated. I love them but they really need to completely change the NCOs. They don’t even do night ops. They’d be crushed by any western army.
Choosing #neutrality and renouncing #nukes worked for #SouthAfrica. But not so much for #Ukraine, (2014-2022), after renouncing its over 1,800 #Soviet nukes. Betrayed by #Russia (#BRICS) and #UK & #USA (#NATO) - decommissioning those nukes and promising #security.
source on dis please!
true, the historical context in which the Red Army was born should not be confused with the conditions of the current Russian army.
Good strategy. Show up numbers. Nobody messes wothnthe Chinese. They tell you we 100m foot soldiers. Many cant carry a gun. The numbers really intimdate
A lot of Russian army are in fact Ukrainians.
The Luchshiy Place To Find A Place™
Dont forget there’re many draftees there
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 08:08 GMT+0000.
First wave cyber attack
This is description of current state of war, not a prediction of end results, but you use "will fail" at start, which is misleading.
We are all ears ( or eyes it should be)
Brilliant thread!! Thank you!
Got it, @Leo_Proettel! I'll remind you about this on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 09:10 GMT+0000.👍 To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
Bless your sacrifice, your threads are always top notch.
Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 05:11 GMT+0000. To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
Those 450 milions of Euros Layen announced? They just paid for Bayraktars imo which were delivered immediately today and are their way (Turkish operator). to make that large column of Kadyrov boy Putin version of "highway to death". Next morning, game over. Putin can't hide this
Damnit. you´re good. appreciate your work.
Really enjoying and learning from your posts here. Thank you for taking the time.
JFC this is the simgle most cogent analysis I’ve seen on this hellsite. Aces, aces, aces
pro-Russian hackers are conspiring against you and your thread /jk
Tweeting so hard you broke your computer!
My attention span empathises with your laptop battery.
At this point it feels like everyone reading this would have pitched in and had a new laptop at your door in five minutes.
This essay, and your dedication to it, are legendary. Thank you for this analysis friend - it has been fascinating
aren't all of this saying that the Grozny-like tactics are going to be implemented soon?
Every civilian killed will just radicalize the population more and they have 40+ million people.
No argument here but let us not model these people as fully rational agents.
It'll be against a much tougher opponent than the Chechens were.
I think it is very likely but heavy artillery might get fucked by logistics too
I'm thinking more iskanders
Got it, @ArthurCamara! I'll remind you about this on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 09:00 GMT+0000.👍
Thanks for the good info
Hence the "training mission" we hear from captured Russians I guess, they would've expected something small, manageable.
remind me of this tweet in 76 hours
Aye aye, captain👮‍♀️! Reminder set for Thursday, 3 March 2022 at 03:07 GMT+0000.
@temindme_ofthis in 2 hours
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 08:11 GMT+0000.
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Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 01:15 GMT+0000.
Very good work, I had reverse idea until reading this, now I wonder if putin is scared enough to go nuke option?
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 16:25 GMT+0000. To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
"An Army at Dawn" - Rick Atkinson
#RussianArmy are not picking up their soldiers bodies, this is not the way the soldiers families might want to remember
Small foreign vacation? In Ukraine? It’s winter.
Some troops apparently were under the impression they were liberating people or even doing training exercises.
Kamil, TY for thoughtful analysis. Certainly informative. Can I ask what your thoughts are if Putin is unpredictable and with a few screws loose in that paranoid mind, why would he be limited to conventional arms. He allowed use of chem wpns in Syria and has tactical WMD on hand
Putin is like a Hearts of Iron player trying to win cheaply by deceiving de AI and getting straight to the victory points
And what about his threats of using nukes?!
The question is against whom. He could start using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but they are a very blunt tool against a guerilla army. Against NATO? Get out of here, even his own subordinates will shoot him before allowing him to start a nuclear war that destroys Russia
That's what's starting to concern me. A defeat isn't an existential threat for Russia - Ukraine was never going to march on Moscow, obviously - but it may well be fatal for Putin's regime in time. And desperate men do desperate things, if nothing else to avoid appearing "weak."
1. In the end, it's like this: - Those who care about the grandeur of their country and nation, will do everything to enrich both (ecnomically, cultually etc). - Those who care about their own grandeur will sacrifice their country and nation to enrich themselves (money, power).
2. And by enriching themselves, they impoverish their own people and their own country.
What if Putin realizes the mistake. Agrees for a truce. Goes back home for 2-3 years and then this time makes a true full scale attack?
Russia wont lose dude. they have already won
Lol what they won the right to if their lucky have a constant rebellion right next to nato territory and the cost of their national reputation and probably thousands of lives
Well, the whole operation has the vibes of a rapidly organised plan B...
Cuidado! Que el tipo está herido;y no aceptará una derrota tan fácilmente!. Ucrania y todos sus vecinos están en peligro por un posible exterminio químico. Fue cómplice de uno en Siria con su colega también Genocida,Bashar al-Ásad Presidente de la República Árabe de Siria
By the end of 2022, the capital of Russia will be Pyongyang on the Moskva Putin has already lost the war with Ukraine These are forever sanctions
Russia will carpet-bomb Ukraine back into Stone Age before it ever ‘tucks its tail’ & accepts ‘loss’ in Ukraine. If Russia can’t win in conventional ways, it will make sure Ukraine is basically completely finished as a functional country. There’s no end-state where Ukraine ‘wins’
RUSKIE HITLEROWCY !!!!!!!
You have to remember that Ukraine is the historical heartland of Russia - neither Putin nor the Russians would really want it destroyed.
Syria was not a actually a war. But how Syria conflict shaped Russia reaction in Ukraine? For me seems that they tried to frame it like an operation against terrorists..
Russians fought no war in Syria. They simply performed air strikes. They never saw the face of the enemy unlike Americans in Irak.
HITLER PUTIN MUSI PROSIĆ O POMOC OBCE WOJSKA HA HA HA !!!!!!!
Un thread interminabile : pieno di osservazioni e informazioni interessantissime. #GuerraRussiaUcraina
Avrupa ulkelerı Rus Askerlerıne Vatandaşlık versın, Rus ordusu dagılır..😊
And he has no plan or strategy to get out of the war /end the war. That is horrible ❗ #PutinsWar #Ukraine #FCKPTN
Espero lo juzguen por crímenes de guerra por sus famosas "Operaciones Especiales", que han masacrados humanos en Chechenia, Siria y hoy en Ucrania. El sujeto es un Genocida.
Got it, @BethMKnight13! I'll remind you about this on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 20:53 GMT+0000.👍 To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
Noted.📝 Your reminder will be on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:53 GMT+0000.
Aye aye, captain👮‍♀️! Reminder set for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:54 GMT+0000.
Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:54 GMT+0000.
Were you thinking things would be noticably different in an hour?
Aye aye, captain👮‍♀️! Reminder set for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 02:13 GMT+0000.
Not what I... Oh well
I figured he was (understandably) going to take a while to finish the thread so I just wanted to come around when the whole thing was done.
In that case smart move.
in 8 hours
Yes, boss. Monday, 28 February 2022 at 05:56 GMT+0000. One new reminder, coming right up.
in 43800 hours
Fingers crossed 🤞
Perhaps he should be more worried about a coup in the kremlin.
Defense in depth is the military strategy of letting enemy forces expand in space, which weakens them. Then counter-attack weak points, disrupt their supply chain, envelope isolated enemy troops. Russia is *extremely vulnerable* to this defensive strategy.
Noted.📝 Your reminder will be on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 07:07 GMT+0000. To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
in 10 hours.
HITLER PUTIN !!!!!!!!
Nice thread and I agree that Russia can lose. My fear is that with the imminent defeat Putin can appeal to nuclear resources ☢️
i don't like that plan
Thanks for this tread. Very interesting and informative
Is the coup d'erat the best way to shorten the war by a lot?
Yes, but the coup needs to be in the Kremlin.
your thought pleases the new world order
Not wanting a NWO, just think it best to remove someone who has been there for too long. Being in charge for too long leads to "strange" decisions being taken.
if he has been in office for a long time it means that he is a valid person, your ideas are unfounded
No it's nothing about valid or not, you know little about how authoritative regime worked
Ah you're a Putin poodle. "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." QED
Fiat has also been there for a long time, which makes it a valid currency system. And yet you advocate for crypto. So which way, western man? Is it 'seniority', or is it 'innovation'?
He’s been in office a long time because he assassinates and jails his opposition.
Yes, boss. Monday, 28 February 2022 at 17:08 GMT+0000. One new reminder, coming right up. To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
You guyz are really underestimating this guy! Smh
25 февраля 2022, 19:50 Политика «Берите власть в свои руки». Путин обратился к украинским военным Путин сравнил украинских неонацистов с террористами Мария Шустрова Прослушать новость Anthett MNM M РИА НОВОСТИ
There is no alt text for this image, I'm sorry.
Very well explained 👍👍
Why not telling us it is a book not a thread to start with?
Spells « coup d’état »
What happened to the buildings on the done shot and aftermath?
Aye aye, captain👮‍♀️! Reminder set for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 11:04 GMT+0000.
That's insane... Awful risk taking. Who ever planned this must be a Western mole... or an idiot.
269 po 269,7K 11:33 Стрелков Игорь Иванович А теперь о ещё более грустном: Наступление на «основном восточном фронте» буксует по причине полного ОТСУТСТВИЯ ВТОРОГО ЭШЕЛОНА. Пройденная территория не контролируется, развязки дорог и важные пункты под контроль не ставятся,
гарнизоны и крупные группировки противника фактически игнорируются. При этом тыловые колонны движутся без малейшей охраны по незачищенной территори, как будто это какая-нибудь Рязанская область. Что уже привело к разгрому и даже полному уничтожению нескольких таких колонн. А
противник не дремлет и «медийной выжимает все» из каждой такой «микро-победы». На лицо крупный просчёт, вызванный, вероятно, неправильной оценкой обстановки и последовавшим за этим «шапкозакидательством». 1,2K P 95
There is no alt text for this image, I'm sorry.
💪💪💪💪💪💪👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻🤍🇺🇦🤍
excellent read I was just thinking in reality the Russian economy is no bigger then Texas or New York this becomes a major player beginning the opening of business tomorrow!
Great read. Thank you.
¡De acuerdo! Guardaré el recordatorio para dentro de 10 horas. Puedes cancelarlo respondiendo a este tweet "borra el recordatorio"
Hey 👋 ¡Ya es hora de que te recuerde lo que me has pedido!
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:50 GMT+0000.
Overall you're mostly right, this war is lost. There's no way to end it "good" for Russia and no one will forget it. Stop fighting, remove the army or burn the world to the ground. I hope Putin haven't lost his mind completely.
May those Russians Rest In Peace. Their blood is on Putin’s hands #WarCriminalPutin
Can Bayraktar float still like a helicopter? If not, is this video captured by a separate drone? Obviously this video is not from an aeroplane type of fast moving aircraft like Bayraktar seems to be.
Bayraktars work in pairs. One lases targets and the other pummels, then they rotate. That's how you have almost all of them in the air near constantly.
Okay. The laser comes from another Bayraktar. But in what aircraft was the camera that captured this video? Bayraktar minimum speed is ~100km/h? The camera is floating in fixed position in the air->the camera cant be in another Bayraktar?
İt seems to me that it is moving, not stationary. Considering that the bayraktar has sensors that observe the impact of mam-l munitions (with a range of 15 km), İ'd say that this is a tb2 filming from kilometers away.
(Possibly sensitive)
That’s gonna leave a mark
We the 🇹🇷 supplied that to 🇺🇦. Because we stand with UKRAINE
How come these don't get obliterated by Russia's S400 and S500?
You didn't mention the role of Air forces: Who has the control of the skies?
Mainly Russians, but not completely, and the Ukrainian AA is still efficient, at least partially.
Got it, @OdairJLeite! I'll remind you about this on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 05:50 GMT+0000.👍
Molotof Kokteyl Fuze gıbı iş yapıyor mubarek..
I feel validated. Made this exact point about light forces on the Ukrainian side blending in and letting the front line units go past, then playing hell with the support columns.
I wonder if you would entertain a response to another thought in this same line. One military aphorism I have learned is that only infantry can truly hold ground. The Russians of course have infantry in their invasion Force, a lot of it. They don't seem to want to act like..
... infantry though. They want to stay in the bmps and tigers, and not venture much more than a few yards away from the roadway. When I was an infantryman we were taught to avoid roads like the plague. Ditches and arroyos and thick stands of trees were our roads.
If the Russian infantry does not fan out into the woods and Fields and side streets of the towns they go through, they're not truly attempting to hold the ground at all. They're ceding it to the Ukrainian army. To me it has echoes of Finland 1939. Vietnam to a lesser extent.
Even TE Lawrence and the Arab uprising in world war I.
Sort of like a Blitzkrieg blowback - with the second attacking echelon (a void) replaced by Ukrainian defenders. Ukraine's local defense forces have a less quantifiable advantage of unequaled local knowledge and personal motivation. Advantages fully quantified in combat 🇺🇦
Yes, boss. Monday, 28 February 2022 at 05:45 GMT+0000. One new reminder, coming right up.
in 8 hours
Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:46 GMT+0000.
Amazing and informative thread. Thank you so much for sharing your insight! *(minor, minor thing, but for future reference from a native English speaker: it's "pandered," not "pondered")
Great Job! 👏👏👏
How serious is the Belarus military?
I can’t tell you how much I appreciate this explanation, thank you for taking the time
Wishful thinking. Russia was only poking around. Now the real army will go in. It is not looking good.
I don't understand how "there is no second echelon" is consistent with "only half of Russia's troops amassed on the border have been deployed into Ukraine" which most sources seemed to be reporting (at least as of very recently)?
The way I understand it is the "second echelon" comes immediately after and reinforcing the first, whereas these deployments have been staggered too greatly to reinforce positions. Like a tower defense game where the enemies go slowly and one at a time.
They split their forces into 4 parts, also not all troops on the border are combat troops, there are supply and logistics lines as well. Given the losses he took, he doesn’t have the troops needed to take the country or even to take Kiev in an urban warfare
We still don’t know. Its not morning yet. Lets all hope and pray there aren’t any echelons left. I’m not convinced, but do hope you’re right.
Echelon/Blitzkrieg attack = paddles of a paddlewheel.
This is what I was thinking - get a bunch of bodies inside the country, to be backed up by subsequent groups. Here, you seem to say that isn’t happening. What’s left? Threaten nukes to come away w part of Ukraine?
Lots on Twitter argue that 🇷🇺 sent in weak force to "soften" 🇺🇦 for following well-trained/equipped troops. What is your take on that?
Sounds like a super dumb strategy: You lose the shock effect and allow your enemy to organise and fully switch to war mode. Plus you lower the morale of your army and support at home by the sheer number of casualties...
"Yльтиматум для русского народа: либо вы уберете Путина, либо я сделаю -24 часа. Байден"
Also, it seems at least some of the captured soldiers (if those impromptu videos are to be believed) thought the same thing. It doesn't seem they were prepared to actually be fighting beyond skirmishes.
So, eventually we are stating the obvious, than most "observers" have no a clue about Ukraine, and they are not shy to show it. Almost a decade of disinformation.
does anyone have those posts
Like most foreign observers. That's a good point. Most westerners were just as clueless as the Russian army a few days ago
Not running away. With leader Zelensky fighting at the front - gaining world admiration… including Russians .. big win in this psychological war ..
Russia remains restrained to launch fierce attacks to keep Ukraine citizens safe. Never try to regard Russia’s restraint as weakness.
I knew it would be punishing for the Russians when I saw a photo of a grandmother brushing up her skills with an FORT-221
The question was in the beginning (including in my mind), how clean was UA army of RU intelligence moles. I am glad to see, that pretty clean. That was very different in 2014 where all lines of communications were so infested
27.02,22 Large Russian military convoy was wiped out in Bucha, Kyiv Oblast, this afternoon. The massive scale of destruction looks like WW3 broke out.
Its funny I have been telling everyone Ukraine can win. Offense like this is real hard.
Very interesting analyses. Hope he pulls back, but we know the honor ego shit will be on the way. Anyway, this part of your text, where he expected UKR to surrender (day 1?) is the only part that I'm considering. Can so well informed dictator really also be so naive?
So, Russia really took their eye off the ball.
Fascinating read, thank you 🙏🏿
Is that anything like a well-regulated militia?
Hardly new. We proved that in 1775 in Lexington and Concord.
Local Militias important to disrupt supply lines of besiegers
CAN YOU SHARE IT, PLEASE? There's a lot of people who take photos or videos and type in the exact location of armies or soldiers.
It is similar to old Yugoslav army doctrine and proven successful for seceding countries fighting for independence.
Or copy of American militias etc
True. Same immortal myth exists in history of Poland with our bloody uprisings and wars: 1410,1612,1683, 1794,1830,1863,1918,1920,PW1944. In many hearts and minds today.
nice, good luck for Ukrainians
Wow. Somehow I think Ukraine outsmarted Russia here. I'm brought back to Roman Emperor Aurelian, during the crisis of the 3rd century when the Empire was about to collapse, he made every city sustainably self-defending and built walls around them (the precursor to castles!).
You didn’t mention the fact that the British Army ‘Operation Orbital’ have trained the Ukrainian military for the last 9 years, as has the US and other partners. Great thread by the way.
and Russians call these "territorial defense" troops "nazis" on their televisions
In a seemingly legit video on YouTube, they mentioned that Ukrainian tanks have been upgraded and actually are superior to the Russian tanks. However, outnumbered of course
thread interessant sur la modernisation de l'armée ukrainienne bien que très optimiste
J’avais vu que Kadyrov disait qu’ils étaient super bien équipés, ça va peut-être un peu ralentir l’inévitable
Surtout que pour l'instant ils ne touchent pas aux civils et on dirait que Poutine se sert de cette première avancée pour expérimenter ses troupes, ils ne combattent pas en BTG (bataillons interarmées) comme le disait Kofman. Ils sont en rodage et les grosses pertes sont logiques
¡De acuerdo! Guardaré el recordatorio para dentro de 10 horas. Puedes cancelarlo respondiendo a este tweet "borra el recordatorio"
¡Hey! ¡Te recuerdo lo que me solicitaste!
@threasreaderapp unroll
Dear @kamilkazani , why are Bayraktars too late for this war?
He meant the akinci is too late for this
Not develop Already made it and ready to war. Turkey almost deal about sell to "Bayraktar Akıncı " to Ukraine war is stopped deal. It is Unfortunate. Akıncı is real game Changer with weapon capacity.
GET THEM DRONES AND DRONE EXPERTS! twitter.com/EndTax/status/…
If Ukraine has no plans, no western air support, then at the very least, get them the drone arrays and Western training in secret border positions. The Drones are highly effective, don't lose pilots, and Russia can't tell who is operating them or where twitter.com/Zugzwan1343295…
What’s too late? Ukrainians don’t need to hear shit like that right now they’re fighting for their lives and Putin thought he could take Ukraine in 48 hours but they are taking extreme heavy casualties so don’t talk stupid about it being over!
Thought they had 20. At least 1 delivery of 6 also
Ukrainian defense minister says they got new delivery of drones and they are already in action.
Yes, but during Azeri war with Armenia, some drones were directly controlled from Turkey, so they had more. They should do the same here, nobody knows where the pilot is.
This is very thoughtful and well-written.
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Hola 🤗 ¡Me pediste que te recuerde esto!
Damn that was a great thread
Write more please
Saw a few improvised vehicle pics from the Donbas region a few years ago. Seems they would mount these pods to just about anything - even civilian trucks.
Why couldn't they do the same with Ukraine? Could Putin order to bomb Kyiv to the ground as they did in Syria or Chechnya?
Because Ukraine has anti-air defence and air forces still working.
Technically, he could, but you don't necessarily do it to the 'lost peril of Russia' that you want to regain.
It would mean tens of thousands civilian deaths in Europe. So i believe that option was definately not on table before the start of this "operation". But it might be on table now, when Putin becomes more desperate.
you guys should interview Kamil on the podcast!
Putin thinks Ukraine is Russia. But he forgot the #1 rule in warfare: Never invade Russia.
They have 2-3 thousand murderers, not soldiers.
Wait for a week
plus Wagner Group mercenaries.
Thank you for the information. It's insightful.
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Ping @THUotila tää ketju on iha mielenkiintoinen.
Kiitos - lueskelin sitä kanssa eilen.
Thank you for retweeting. Very good read.
Great read, thanks!
An informative piece!
Very informative thread.
I've rarely read bullshit like this, Putin threatens if someone interferes, humanity will experience a war like never before and experts like you think he thought it's all over after 2 days?Please apply to the secret services, they didn't know all this what you're saying
Een nieuw draadje van KamilKazani. Heel informatief
mega langer thread aber zu dem Video was du mir geschickt hast vielleicht auch noch interessant
Video zu dem Thema würde ich auch gerne sehen, falls es einen Link gibt
Why he had this reason? He had and have enough his minions in UA army? Are thay disinformated him in such scale? Or UA contr intelligence was so good? Do you have any idea?
Weird tho cause Putin would have sent spy in Ukraine and he would've known that they've upgraded their military.
hoy a las 18:00
¡Perfecto! Ya guardé el recordatorio para el Lunes 28/Febrero/2022 a las 06:00 PM Puedes cancelarlo respondiendo a este tweet "borra el recordatorio"
Hola 🤗 ¡Me pediste que te recuerde esto!
I laugh: rural signal in Wales I used to do that
so meanwhile the russian army uses cheap made in china consumer radios:
Окупанти користуються звичайними аналоговими раціями Baofeng😂 Все, що треба знати про вєлікую армію.
more on this topic.
Intelligence acquired since the beginning of the Russian military operation over Ukraine has shown an immense lack of logistic support, making this war one of the most unique in 2022 when it comes to surveillance. A thread 👇🧵
Hmmm..so whether Starlink is helping the invading Russians or hurting them is a catch 22...
Which starlinks are in whose hands can be understood and blocked individually.
😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂
ok, but it has been almost 8 years ago. How could Russian intelligence not take all this ukrainian army evolution in account?
just for the record, the were hardly insurgents. 95% of their operational leadership were mercenaries and russian government proxies.
Is this true ? >grenades taken from Ukrainian warehouses were 99% dysfunctional (ofc, they were 25+ years old) it's not surprising Ukraine lost to Russia in 2014. It's surprising they could fight at all I find this odd. E.g. WWI rifle ammo, 5 out of 6 rounds work
Zhuchkovsky says in his book that most didn't work, but he describes some as functioning.
All heavy munitiions (mortars, rpgs, grenades) or just the ones that have electronics in them ?
"insurgents"? You mean separatists?
wants girkin up to these days?
Nothing, sitting at home at commenting all the stuff over the Internet. On Thursday he posted "I am disappointed nobody asked for my help during this operation".
Retirement’s a bitch.
We call the “vodka specials” Most Russian equipment we collect follows no standard… each is built slightly poor in a system of the systems that make up the whole weapon systems. Many systems need to be consumed to make a working weapon… you get “what” you pay for.
Two wrongs do not make a right, do they?
The tankies always include Syria in the list. But the slaughter of Syrian civilians was by Assad and his Russian Allies, and secondarily by the so-called Islamic State.