Why Russia will lose this war?
Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?
I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵
Consider a timely paper on Russian army by Bismarck Analysis. It's good & informative. It's correct on its land-based and artillery-centric character. It's also correct that Minister of Defence Serdyukov greatly increased army's efficiency in 2007-2012. But it's still misleading
Yes, Minister Serdyukov indeed reformed the army. He increased its efficiency, fought with corrupt and crony armament producers improving the army supplies. As a result he became extremely unpopular, made tons of powerful enemies and was ousted in 2012 losing his power and status
His successor Shoygu knew better than that. Now who's Shoygu? Shoygu is the *only* single Russian minister who uninterruptedly worked in government since 1991, since the very beginning of Russian Federation. He worked for all presidents, all prime ministers avoided all purges
What does it mean? It means he's a cunning political entrepreneur, great in court politics, publicity, image. You survive every single administration by maxing your political survival. And to max it you need to minimise animosity. So you never object to powerful interest groups
Serdyukov fought with interest groups and was destroyed. Shoygu was smarter than that. He launched a PR campaign presenting himself as the "saviour" from the Serdyukov's legacy. Whatever his predecessor did, was dismantled. Media cheered, people cheered, interest groups cheered
That's a very, very typical problem. Efficiency-maxing requires ruthlessness in dealing with established elites and interest groups. Meanwhile court-politics-maxing requires pondering to them and not making enemies. Serdyukov was maxing efficiency, Shoygu - court politics
There was another issue. Shoygu is ethnic Tuvan. In such a country as Russia minority member can hardly become the supreme leader. People don't perceive him as ethnic Russian (see his palace) which means he's not dangerous for the leader and you can safely delegate him the army
Shoygy not only purged Serdyukov's appointees, pondered to old military establishment, stopped arguing with army suppliers about the equipment cost and quality. He also pondered to numerous feel-good-lies regarding the Russian big strategy. Let's consider the army vs navy problem
Army vs navy had been a traditional dilemma of European powers for centuries. As a rule, you couldn't support both first class army and first class navy, you had to choose. Some powers ignored this to their demise - like 17-18th cc France. Others were more rational, like Prussia
We kinda forgot it but in the 17th c principality of Brandenburg centered in Berlin tried to play into a "global maritime power". They built a navy, established colonies in Caribbean and Africa (red). Super costly, super hubris, super stupid. Consumed tons of resources in vain
In 18th c. they reconsidered. They sold their colonies, dismantled the navy and started land-maxing. They correctly realised that if they suppress their hubris and minimise the navy (to zero), they can land-max and build the first class army. Which would then unify Germany
So. Land-maxing requires minimising the naval ambition. Does Russia minimise its naval ambition? No. It feels obliged to maintain as much Soviet naval legacy as possible. Keep old ships afloat, build new ones, maintain and expand infrastructure for the ocean navy
Here is another dilemma. Regional fleets can be effectively used in land wars. For example, Russia declared "navy manoeuvres" and then attacked Ukraine from the sea. That's cheap and effective. But keeping a regional fleet doesn't sound sexy. It's efficiency-maxing, not PR-maxing
And Russia is PR-maxing. Putin declared that the share of new ships should reach 70% by 2027. Old Soviet ships are becoming obsolete, Russia's building new ones. BUT. Major Soviet shipyards are located in Ukraine. So now Russia expands shipyard infrastructure to reach this goal
Soviet naval legacy is a curse of Russian military. USSR could afford ocean fleets with carrier strike group. Russia can't. But abandoning Soviet ambitions would require suppressing their own hubris (impossible). So they strive to maintain it. Ergo: they can't and won't land-max
How does it reflect on this war? First, Russian invading force is small. It has LOTS of artillery ofc. But it's not numerous enough to win. Pro-Russian analysts compare their advance with Barbarossa. But unlike Wehrmacht in 1941 Russian invaders have only *ONE ECHELON OF TROUPS*
How is a Blitzkrieg organised? By echelons. First echelon is moving forward as fast as they can. Ofc this means that lots of defenders will be left in their rear. But then the second echelon comes, then third, etc. They finish defenders, occupy territory, control the supply lines
If Russia launched a proper Barbarossa-style Blitzkrieg that would happen now - first, second, third echelons. But the second echelon didn't come. It never existed. Why? First, Russia's *not* landmaxing and thus doesn't have so much resources and infrastructure for the land war
Secondly, launching several echelons would require long arduous preparation. You need to mobilise them, move to the borders, quarter, maintain and supply. It's not that easy. It's a hard job that should have been done well in advance to wage a Blitzkrieg. And it hadn't been done
Why Russia didn't prepare a proper Blitzkrieg? And now we come for the third and main reason. Blitzkrieg is a war strategy. Blitzkrieg is how you break & suppress the enemy who's actually fighting. Russia didn't plan it because it didn't plan a war. It planned a Special Operation
Ofc partially that's just modern discourse. After WWII traditional understanding of sovereignty as of legal right of sovereign rulers to wage offensive war died. As a result modern states never admit they're waging wars. They're waging "pacifications", "counterterrorism", etc
Consider how all the War Departments and Ministries over the world were renamed into "Defence" in late 1940s. Everyone's defending, nobody's attacking. Why does the fighting happen then? Well, because of criminals - "bandits", "terrorists", "jihadees" or as now in Ukraine "Nazis"
Modern world abolished the distinction between the enemy and the criminal, a key idea of the Roman Law. Powers do wage wars, but to do so they need to criminalise and dehumanise their enemies. Hence, all the "terrorist" discourse. In a sense Putin is going with the flow
But on a deeper level Putin is absolutely correct. His declaration of "special operation" in Ukraine is sincere, because he didn't expect the war. He doesn't know how to do wars. For all of his life he's been organising and launching the special operations
First, as a KGB officer. Then, as St Petersburg city councillor for foreign affairs (= illegally selling Soviet warehouse stuff to the West). In 1990s he closely worked with the criminal world and he did it successfully. Here you see him with a thief-in-law, Grandpa Hassan
Putin worked with violent entrepreneurs used to killing. But. He had always had the upper hand. Federal and regional governments were very much stronger than these criminal bosses who were very much replaceable. Everyone of them had dozens of henchmen who wanted to take his place
Putin waged special operations when he had much stronger position than these criminals. And he got used to that. Later Yeltsin chose him as a successor and in this capacity Putin launched a bunch of special operations to consolidate power. Again with full support of higher ups
Yeah, Putin played badass even before becoming a President. But it was easy to play a badass when he was backed up by then President and the entire apparatus of Kremlin. Huge power, no risk, no accountability
Later he initiated conflicts each time his had to boost his popularity and tough image. Chechnya, Georgia, Syria. But neither of this was a war. Every conflict was a Special operation waged:
1) for political goals
2) against small force which had no chance to win against Russia
Putin fought only with small countries. Chechnya - 1 million people, Georgia - 4. Syria had more, but he fought with rebels, with no proper training or armaments. Also "counterterrorist" discourse allowed Russians to simply level entire cities to the ground with no consequences
Every time Putin needed to confirm his alpha status he would devastate some little country with a Special Operation. They didn't require proper preparation because they bore no existential risk to Russia or to him. Like, the fuck they're gonna do? No risk = no need to bother
Putin decided to repeat this little trick again. Hence, not that numerous army of invasion, only one echelon of advance, etc. But Ukraine is much bigger - it has 44 million people. What was Putin thinking? Apparently he was expecting zero resistance from the Ukrainian army
Putin had a good reason to believe so. Indeed, in 2014 Russian regulars ("ихтамнеты" = "there aren't any of them there") easily destroyed Ukrainian forces in Debaltsevo and Ilovaysk. He saw that Ukrainian army is weak and he can easily route them simply sending Russian regulars
Strategically speaking Putin fucked up. He defeated Ukraine, inflicted pain and humiliation. Anyone with an IQ above the room temperature knew the war is not over and Russians would strike again. But - Putin didn't finish Ukraine back then. He thought he'd always have a chance
What happened next was quite predictable. Inflicting a painful but not critical defeat on your enemy is risky. Yeah, they kinda became weaker. But the balance of power within them changed. Court politics maxing interest groups lost and efficiency maxing upstarts get a chance
Formula of institutional evolution = scare + don't finish them. Napoleon smashed Prussians at Jena-Auerstedt, didn't finish them. Prussia evolved. Commodore Perry scared Japanese in 1853, but the US spiralled into Civil War and left them alone. Japan evolved
Nothing motivates as hard as an existential threat. First, Ukrainians admitted the truth:
«I'll be frank. Today we have no army. Now we can assemble a group of 5 thousand capable soldiers max [out of 125 on paper]"
- reported minister of defence in 2014
In 2014 Ukrainian equipment was awful. Almost 100% vehicle and ammunition were 25+ year old Soviet stocks. Moreover, most of it just expired. Like vehicles existed on paper but were never checked or used since 1991. Their radiators, accumulators all rotten and unrepairable
FSB colonel who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 admitted it created problem for him, too. He wanted to restock from the Ukrainian military warehouses, but that stuff just didn't work. Like they took 28 anti-tank missiles and fired them all during Nikolaevka battle. None worked
Judging by the interviews with insurgents who were disappointed to find that rockets, shells, grenades taken from Ukrainian warehouses were 99% dysfunctional (ofc, they were 25+ years old) it's not surprising Ukraine lost to Russia in 2014. It's surprising they could fight at all
Even the ancient soviet radio machines didn't work. Ukrainian soldiers had to communicate with SMS and since network was often awful they had to throw their mobile phones up in air in a hope may be it will catch radio signal few meters over the ground
That's how Ukrainian army looked back then. No wonder it was immediately crushed by Russian regulars in Debaltsevo and Ilovaysk and Putin had every reason to believe that resistance will be broken the moment he launches his regular army en masse
A lot has changed. First, Ukraine has had six drafts. Men were drafted and sent to Donbass. Then most demobilised and returned to civilian life. This Donbass contingent was around 60 thousand soldiers and constantly rotated. So now Ukraine has 400 000+ veterans of Donbass war
Many of them were in combat. Thus Ukraine has huge number of veterans with combat experience. Probably more than Russia. Yes, Russia has been fighting in Syria. It never published the size of its force but it's estimated to be 2-3 thousand. Most Russian soldiers have not seen war
Furthermore, combat they've seen is different. Russian soldiers are used to fighting only when they total superiority. In Syria they would just level cities to the ground with bombers. Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers have fought only against far stronger and better equipped enemy
Equipment-wise this war took Ukrainian army half-resupplied. It developed many innovative weaponry of its own, but almost none of it was produced on large scale. In most cases soldiers have only few prototypes of new, Ukrainian-produced weaponry
Ukraine ordered 48 Turkish Bayraktars TB2 drones. That's not bad - more than twice what Azerbaijan had in Karabakh. But only 12 of them got to the troops by now. Ukraine is also developing new, stronger drone Bayraktar Akinci together with Turks, but it's too late for this war
However, Ukrainians got a number (unpublished) of American-produced Javelins and M141 Bunker Defeat Munition, & British-Swedish produced MBT LAWs. Together with Ukrainian produced anti-tank weaponry such as «Stugna-P», RK-3 "Corsar" and «Barrier» it helps to fight Russian tanks
Ukrainian troops hadn't received many new tanks by the time Putin attacked. But they got new armoured vehicles, such as domestic-produced Cossack-2 with Turkish produced Aselsan fighting modules and a number of American armoured vehicles, humvees, etc
Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a day to fight only in their own town and region
Why? Well, that's pretty obvious. If Russia made a proper Blitzkrieg with several echelons of attack, Ukraine would lose anyway. But Russia didn't. And Ukrainians bet that they wouldn't. First - it's costly and difficult for a state security regime which isn't landmaxing
Second, Putin expected Ukrainian army to run away or surrender in the first day. Like most of foreign observers expected. Now they're of course changing the narrative, but if you look at their posts few days ago they didn't believe that Ukrainians would make any real resistance
So Putin attacked with only one echelon. Troops pushed forward leaving many non-destroyed Ukrainian regulars and levy behind. In a proper Blitzkrieg a second and third echelon would have come to finish Ukrainian defenders. But they didn't. These additional echelons didn't exist
Which immediately created the supply and replenishment problem. The first echelon pushed forward. It needs a supply in ammo, in fuel and well, in people. But these supply convoys are being attacked by the regulars and territorial defence troops left behind
And reportedly by the levy whom the government just distributed guns. These people would be unable to stand against the Russian columns but they can attack convoys. Consider that Ukraine has many veterans with combat experience among civilians
Strelkov, who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 confirms this version in his telegram. Supply columns are being destroyed because there's no second echelon
Putin is apparently concerned. In the video of 25 Feb he called for Ukrainian military to do a coup d'erat. He wouldn't need it if his plan worked in the first place
What does it mean? Putin's plan didn't work. Cuz he didn't plan for war. He never fought a war and has no idea how to fight them. He has been always doing Special Operations and this is a Special Operation, too. They should have just run away or surrender, but they keep fighting
The defeat in this operation will inflict enormous consequences for Putin and his regime. They are unlikely to survive this defeat. Meanwhile, it's unlikely that Putin wins by the same methods
It's not that Russian morale is low, it's rather that it depends on how hard the war is.Most Russian troops would be enthusiastic or wouldn't mind against a small foreign vacation with fun and adventures. Fighting a hard long war with real possibility of death is another matter
Morale of Russian troops is widely overestimated. According to sociological studies the main motivation to enlist is usually to get an apartment. They are usually young men from underprivileged background with no real prospects in life. That's a chance to get a housing from state
Now if you are dead, you can't get a housing. Perhaps those already in Ukraine have little choice but the very fact that resistance continues, war is bloody and casualties are real would hugely demotivate those back at home. Expect no enthusiasm to go there on Russian side
What Putin can do?
1. Start destroying infrastructure (done)
2. Blockade cities (done)
3. Simply level cities with bombers and artillery like in Chechnya or Syria (may be)
The first two would inflict humanitarian catastrophe and as he hopes break the will
Third one is more problematic. Unlike Chechnya or Syria where you could easily justify the open genocide with "fighting jihadees" which is a fair play in the "war on terror", here it would be more difficult and actually might draw the NATO response. Still, I can't exclude this
So my prognosis is: if the fight continues and victory is not achieved Russian ability and willingness to fight will be disappearing quickly. Putin doesn't have a choice but many of his subordinates do
Even in case when Russia doesn't technically lose and some source of armistice/agreement is achieved, Ukraine already won. Why? Many describe this conflict as kinetic. Bullshit. Human conflicts or interactions are not kinetic. They are mythological and run by myths
Money is a myth. It exists only because we believe so. Power is a myth. Nation is a myth. Institutions are purely mythological. Consider the story of the burning of Moscow in 1572. Ivan the Terrible divided his country to Zemschina (land) and Oprichnina (taken apart)
Oprichnina was under his personal rule. Oprichniks - his forces - launched terror campaign against Zemschina. They slaughtered entire noble houses, massacred cities, killed enormous number of commoners facing no resistance. Why? Were they strong and brave? No. Because if the myth
Russian people existed within a myth of Orthodox monarchy. Ofc there would be individuals who would go against the Orthodox Tsar. But it was impossible to organise a resistance against him. Thus resistance would be individuals and easily crushed by organised Oprichnik forces
Oprichniks became very brave and badass. Because mythology of the Russian people prohibited 99% of them to resist these security forces. So with the time they decided they are really cool. In 1572 when Crimean Khan attacked Moscow Oprichnik forces went to face him
Kinetically speaking they had overwhelming superiority. Guns, cannons, much heavier armor or weaponry. Their defense and firepower was very much stronger. But they were routed in one day simply by arrows. Because they were used to fight people whose myth prohibited to resist them
Within the Muscovite mythology Oprichniks were invincible untouchable demigods, as hands of Orthodox Tsar, who's kinda living God. But when facing foreign enemy they left this mythological space. And entered a new space where they are just people and can get arrow in the face
They were not used to getting arrows in the face. The very realisation they are not demigods but mortals shocked them. They ran away dropping their armor, guns and cannons. Moscow was burnt to the ground despite having total "kinetic" and technological superiority
So. Power is mythological. Russian state security are gods within their own mythological space where they represent the god like state. But what they found that Ukrainians left this mythological space. Thus Russian state security has no power there. They are just mortals
And finally. The very fact of resistance against so much superior enemy very much empowers the Ukrainian mythology. It's enormous mythos building we are witnessing. The very phenomenon of war is inconceivable without taking into account mythological dimension
Consider Venice. When Napoleon came they surrendered without a shot. Very smart, saved lives, saved the city. It's just killed the mythos of Venice. People lived but the Republic died. It was never restored and is unlikely to be restored again
Theorists of war of the bygone age understood it. Clausewitz pointed out that it's important not only if you lost independence but *how* you lost it. If you submitted without a fight, you saved lives. But you killed your mythos. You'll be digested by the conqueror
But if you lost after the brutal and bloody fight your mythos is alive. The memory of the last battle will live through the ages. It will shape the mythological space your descendants live in and they'll attempt to restore independence at the first opportunity. End of thread
I recommend going back and reading his other threads from last few days. Equally long and detailed on the rise of Putin, how the Chechens went from Thron in side of Russia to some of his loyal soldiers that he can call upon
Thread of threads
Large threads will be published here every Friday and sometimes on additional days. Also I am now working on setting up a substack - gonna post here when done. At this point let me give a guide to navigate through already published threads - from older to newer
And if you've like this thread I highly recommend going back to read other threads of his. A lot as long and detailed as this. Here is the Chechens one twitter.com/UnrollHelper/s…
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 12 saves of this thread (ranked #3845)
• 112 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #422)
Epic thread with great sources! One question: You say Ukrainians have a lot of combat experience because of the Donbas war. But they were fighting someone, weren't they? Don't those people have lots of combat experience as well?
Since Afghanistan body bags are a sore point in Russia. Putin has tried to limit real combat risk to true volunteers (effectively internal mercenaries) with far better pay etc, who knowingly take on high risk, and even then, as covered in the thread he has been careful to pick
The defenseless to keep Russian casualties to a minimum. Chechnya, the body bags almost got him into trouble, even as he needed to consolidate his power. This is the first time since Afghanistan that Russia has fought an opponent that had any chance to go toe to toe with them.
Many Russians are afraid of harassment and hostility from foreigners, you need to understand that the Russians themselves are hostages of this situation
This thread is exactly right about the mythology of this conflict. We are seeing the legends, not just little ones, but things on the scale of the Alamo or George Washington being born right before our eyes. Even in defeat, they will go on in Story. Stories matter.
I only hope history doesn't forget this moment. Ukraine truly is the only blockade for authoritarianism in Europe right now, and they are fighting to hopefully keep the rest of the world from an escalation of war.
Immense bravery from those people. Simply immense.
Also, you say the second echelon didn't exist, but what about the 150,000+ Russian troops massed on the border? If Russia used them all, would it be enough for a blitzkrieg?
In Germany we say „das ist Kanonenfutter“. A great many untrained young soldiers who have no idea about war (as described). 150k sounds a lot, but not enough for such an attack. Not all of them are fighters. E.g. medics, technicians, cooks etc.
Every brigade has hundreds of vehicles. In safe transport a single wheeled battalion takes up around 20 miles on the road. A 3 mile convoy this tight might constitute 3-5 brigades? 20k troops at most? That might not be that alarming, they might still be facing much more defenders
Btw, as an example of this point, note that even though an independent polish state did not exit for 123 years before WWI, they had uprisings every generation and a mythos that led to the country’s independence in 1918
Also how Israel has managed to reassemble itself as a state many times over Millenia despite having being conquered and dispersed many times over. The Jewish identity has remained unbroken from Abraham on downt though the ages tied together by a powerful religious thread
"Throughout history many nations have suffered a physical defeat, but that has never marked the end of a nation. But when a nation has become the victim of a psychological defeat, then that marks the end of a nation."
— Ibn Khaldun
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
You also see this in Scotland. Despite losing frequently to England, Scotland always resisted. Robert the Bruce understood this and built an army starting with nothing more than myth.
And that myth is strong enough to have carried all the way to the modern age as an undercurrent, such that they are now looking for independence again after Brexit.
The absolute #1 most useful and enlightening thread on this war. Completely brilliant and eye-opening, and love (as an anthropologist) how you end with the mythos piece. That seems absolutely accurate and we all see it congealing in real time.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦👍 Interesting about the apartment for soldiers. I agree with every word about the myth. There is also a founding myth and this war will be one for UKR. I'm glad that UKR fights bravely and continues in resistance. We are with her with all our heart. 👍from🇵🇱
"The final ruin of England could only be accomplished by an English government acting under orders from Berlin. But that cannot happen if England has awakened beforehand. For in that case the defeat would be unmistakable, the struggle would continue, the idea would survive."
"The difference between going down fighting, and surrendering without a fight, is by no means a question of "honour" and schoolboy heroics. Hitler said once that to accept defeat destroys the soul of a nation. This sounds like a piece of claptrap, but it is strictly true."
Thanks for your great work, itvis godly useful. What do you think about the possibily to user nuke or big bombs by Poutine to overdrive the defeat coming?
Profoundly informative analysis. Thank you for this enormous effort. Another example highly supportive of the mythos is the legendary Libyan fighter Omar Mukthar.
My first thought at the conclusion: If Ukraine emerges from this intact, it is going to be a force in Europe propelled for a generation by the energy of the February 2022 War mythos…
Very long thread but I think it’s on the money. Putin planned a raid on a grand scale, not a war. He expected to decapitate the government and that the bulk of the people would gladly support him. Ukraine is making Russian conscripts pay for that miscalculation.
You see this in the US South and the myth of the Lost Cause. And for decades it was (still is?) called the War of Northern Aggression. They are still fighting it. And close to winning. 😡
Ukraine already had a national mythos. But with this war we are seeing it in opposition to Russia, and in successful opposition.
These will be the stories, the memories that drive the mythos and patriotism of Ukrainians for generations.
Yeah, at this point I don’t see any chance for Ukrainian people giving up. Even if they are temporarily cowed, they’re going to be pissed and rebellious.
Gd analysis. Imo Ukraine will win for sure as long as nuclear action taken out of scenario. Huge hinterland to regroup away from any city bombardment. Potential partisans in million++. Never ending supply guns , stingers supplies money food etc to come. Highly motivated.
Fantastically illuminating thread, Kamil. Thank you. On the practical side, do you think the UKR army has the capacity (let alone the desire) to counter-attack / roll back RU ground forces anywhere outside urban theaters? Ambushes aside. If not, can they win w/out that ability?
Very good question: just stopping your enemy from doing whatever they want to do equals giving up initiative permanently. It may boil down to will to fight on the Russian side rather than simply throwing in more resources.
On CNN they had an expert on who said he believed UKR was leaving a lot of the small cities in order to prevent them from being physically destroyed and focus on the urban areas.
If Putin is trying to invade or attack a NATO member, Russian generals depose him. Everyone loses, including the Russians, their families, their possessions, their good lives. Not even Stalin, who was a bloodthirsty murderer, had the courage to do this madness.
interesting and smart thread, but Putin lost this war and execution will be tommorow -stocs and rubel price, imagine to wake up in situation that you must pay 4 car rtv, smartfon etc 3x then 3 days before, russians are resilient but even 4 them it will be shock, so thay have cd
no other way but kick out putin and make new deal with rest of the world - including reparations 4 Ukraine and drow back their military from ocupied parts of Ukr.
Even in case when Russia doesn't technically lose and some source of armistice/agreement is achieved, Ukraine already won. Why? Many describe this conflict as kinetic. Bullshit. Human conflicts or interactions are not kinetic. They are mythological and run by myths
I don’t know if Russia or Ukraine will win this battle - it depends so much on logistics and factors I cannot see. However, every day Ukraine holds with courage is another level of solidification of Ukrainian resolve to make any occupation pure hell for Russia. Myths and martyrs.
Every single Ukrainian soldier that falls convinces more to take up arms. The ideology of “righteous battle” is no myth. These people REALLY seem to believe in their battle and their cause.
I don’t see a scenario where Russia is able to subjugate them, regardless of occupation.
Nice read. I agree technically russian military is not very good. But still they should have enough fire power to destroy Ukrainian airforce and air defenses before or as they move in, and they didnt even do that. Its really strange
While your thread is interesting, on this particular point I think you are ignoring the huge number who were utterly destroyed and never recovered - enemies of Rome for example, starting with Carthage, but also including Gaul. More recent: native Americans, Africans…list is long
And from a ‘myth perspective’ (though not total annihilation) Japan and of course Germany after WW2, come to think of it. The victorious allies pretty much rooted out any martial myths and made them taboo in ‘civilised society’.
this was an amazing read. thank you!
today, i heard former FBI agent @selectedwisdom say on #MeetThePress. if Ukraine can resist for one week it will be over for Russia. 🙏
Thank you very much for this well-informed and compellingly-argued analysis.
One question — how can it be that the evolution and relative preparedness of Ukrainian forces has escaped the attention of Russian military intelligence? Or did no one want to give Putin that report?
Could it be the Ukrainian troops are capable but it's in combination with cause and myth that make them seem so powerful and that humanity part of the equation doesn't exist or is unrecognized in Russia?
Good thread, but a bit to optimistic. Bielorruss is probably joining in, as are the Tchechens, (and Transnistians?); there is progress at 3 different lines of offense of the Russian army (SOUTH; EAST; NORTH). I think resistance is stronger than expected but still insufficient.
Just wanted to add one more 'thank you so much' to the many others. It was so interesting and educational I didn't want it to end. Now off to read a bit more about Ivan's Oprichniki.
This is so true. Sitting in Tulum rn reminds me of how Mayan civilization fell because they believed the myth of the superiority and the emperor mistakenly believed by fighting and losing he would destroy his myth. Instead he surrendered and was assassinated and the myth died
Remember that viruses and bacteria did most of the killing for the Europeans back then. Based on the knowledge about pathogens at the time it’s quite understandable that they believed such a myth
First public save of this tweet! 🏆
Readwise users: Like this reply to save kamilkazani's tweet to your account without cluttering their replies 📚
Stats:
• 50 total saves of kamilkazani's tweets (ranked #1260)
1. Why would fighting separatist in the Donbas be enough to harden Ukrainian military to fight Russian regulars? Seems like very different combatants...
2. If he's losing, wouldn't Putin be MORE likely to consider city-leveling bombing? He mentioned nukes twice now...
It may sound strange, but the separatists are better at fighting than the soldiers of the Russian army. The Russian army abandoned young soldiers who had not been shot. Who know nothing and die almost without resistance.
01.03.2022 путін скидає бомби на Харків,. Київ. Знищена Волноваха. Суми, Чернігів, Конотоп обстріли.
Ви взагалі розумієте що Києву 1300 років, князь Київа москву заснував, а путін любить історію, і путін скидає ракети бомби на Київ
Do not confuse propaganda for losing.
Russia is running a very soft "fight" right now, not looking to harm civilians or the infrastructure of Ukraine.
Slow steady progress is seen on every Russian advance, Russia controls Ukraine air now.
Point 2 of yours: let's hope not.
This person ignores nearly a decade of brutal war by Russia against states further east. No Ukrainian has seen actual war.
Do a search for 'Grozny' to see a true war raged by Russia. Let's hope for Russia to stay on course. None want to see the other option.
Totally agree. The OP does see that Russians are not fighting a full scale war but a special operation. What he does not see is that - to my knowledge - only 1/3 of the Russian forces have entered Ukraine yet and that no heavy bombing has been carried out so far.
I dunno, Grozny battle was 23 years ago, i wonder whats 40-ish years old veteran is doing right now, probably only few numbers still active in military.
Yeah, and only 20 thousand Russians were there. Lets say, they did not send 18 year old's into Grozny due to experience of their enemy. They had to be experienced soldiers. The battle was in 1999. You really think they send soldiers of 45-50 into Ukraine?
He mentioned Checnya, it's a tiny region and Russia lost the first war by the way. It's not proof of a powerful army, even though I DO believe Russia has one.
With his economy completely crumbling under his power, it is unlikely he will last long. It's even very plausibele the Russian people themselves will end his tyranny. And even if Ukrain falls, there will be a guerrilla war making Putins life a hell.
Давайте я немножко расскажу о русских. Имел опыт общения со старым советским военным пилотом. Итак: особым предметом его гордости было то, как он летал на Ту-22м с ядерной боеголовкой и пугал мир. Мир был на грани ядерной катастрофы, но благодаря командиру обошлось.
К чему я это? Русские любят блеф и поднятие ставок. И путин тут не исключение. Он играет роль мачо, которому все равно, нажать кнопку или нет. На самом деле весь конфликт развивается на повышении ставок и демонстрации какой crazy, и:" видите, вы думали я войну не начну? Начал
Видите? А думаете я кнопку не нажму?" Старый лис Байден его раскусил, как мне кажется.
Он прочитал Путина. И сейчас его разорвет руками украинцев.
Украина не проиграет.
are you sure those where only the "local" separatists and not russian trained soldiers too to keep ukraine aways from those zones for 8 years?
Also Putshit is mostly afraid of his own ppl being informed with real facts, thats why the propaganda TV all repeat the same always
Also: Ukraine has hung on long enough that aid and weapons are now pouring into the country, even as the Ukrainians strangle Putin's supply lines.
twitter.com/michaelbirnbau…
I wonder how we could view other wars through the mythological lens
What did the defeat of the US do for the mythos of the North Vietnamese or Taliban, and how did it/will it affect the far future
Thank you, very very fascinating perspective
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Se Putin está tentando invadir ou atacar um membro da OTAN os generais russos depoem ele.
Todos perdem, inclusive os russos, suas famílias, seus bens, suas boas vidas.
Nem Stalin que era um assassino sanguinário teve coragem de fazer essa loucura.
If Putin is trying to invade or attack a NATO member, Russian generals depose him. Everyone loses, including the Russians, their families, their possessions, their good lives. Not even Stalin, who was a bloodthirsty murderer, had the courage to do this madness.
They came back after being displaced to Kazakhstan and were very tough against Russia in their wars recent and distant past. They have troops loyal to Putin to fight.
It looks like the guy with the power over Chechnya now, Kadyrov, is aligned with Putin. If he is removed somehow, is it possible that other Chechen leaders may not be as favorable to Putin?
I think check sources twice times 3 to get closer to the truth of something. Lots of faked stuff. Yes these men are cruel fanatics. They are driven and can't be reasoned with except by force.
Yes. The glorious defeat. Canadians made fun of polish cavalry "charging German tanks" with no understanding if how this contributed to the Polish story. Even as they celebrated, mourned and cursed Dieppe. Nations can't understand each others spaces?
The learned make fun of this when in the lap of luxury. I like to think that when shit hits the fan st least some realize that the good kings die for the people.
Putin expected invasion over in one day in a state that has 44 million people been armed for a decade with US weapons in a territory of a comparable size stretching from New York city to Toronto and Chicago and Raleigh.
You make a very important point about Russian mythology and ideology- power. The perception of power is EVERYTHING in Russian politics, and Putin is not a young- or well- man these days. He’s making moves and mistakes, and his people will not respond well.
2/2 ...Admirers of the latters will always tend to despise the former as dishonorable.
While admirers of the formers will always tend to think of the latters as brainwashed idiots.
An eternal question which remains.
For us Czechs the events of 1938/39 and 1968 are the biggest sources of national shame ever seen. This is why on the first day of war the words on everybody's lips was "už žádný Mnichov", no more Munich. I hope all the help we are providing right now eases that historical burden.
2/3 people from places with victorious resistances or not so much, where even today the price for a long ago victory or to keep fighting, are still being paid...
3/3 Anyway, shame must always fall on/be against those who attack (and those who omitts),
Not against those who are attacked (and have to find ways to resist defending themselves, in way or another).
Good thread bro
What's your take on the fact that Russia starts to bring their MICBM in the open? You believe Putin is ready to go for nuclear?
I agree he may underestimate Ukraine's strength. However Russia may win the war once they enter Kyiv.
Excellent thread. As a Finn I agree to the logic here. The myth of heroic defense during WWII - despite having technically lost and submitted to a harsh peace treaty - still keeps the general opinion very much pro defensive military and conscription but much against offensive war
Very interesting and enlightening thread, thank you. So far I've only read foreign military experts underscoring how much the Ukrainian armed forces' equipment were old, Soviet-era weapons. And the mythology point is very true.
That's what De Gaulle understood when he invented the "every french resisted the nazis" and "real france was the résistance", it built the myth he thought the country needed, instead of "you lost in less than a week, got yourself a dictator and helped Hitler genocide jews"
But mythos can hobble you. Brexit was built partly on exploitation of WWII mythos while Germany's mythos had been destroyed so it could happily live and breathe in present reality.
I will add to the mythology from my country's hustoty. Czechoslovakia was established in the end of Great War, 1918, with legions trapped and fighting Red Army. Legions managed to control whole Transsiberian magistrale, leaving for home through Japan. Myth building
strong and confident nation after over 300 years of being ruled from Vienna. After Hitler came to power, Czechoslovakia started preparing for war building defense lines, training military, equiping. Year 1938 came and Hitler was too afraid to just attack. Nation was
ready to fight, morale high, eventhough realizing Reich was stronger. Hitler called a metting with Daladier, Chamberlain and Mussolini and got Munich Treaty ensuring him "right" to occupy borderline regions. Czechoslovaks stood alone but still ready to fight. President refused
He ordered to surrender, "saving lifes". It crushed the myth. And no matter fighting later in war - fighters at RAF, legions in Russia and Africa, unique assasination of Heydrich - the myth was not reborn. Sure, commies taking down many brave people after the war didn't help.
Latvia is similar. We also gained independence in 2018, in desperate struggles that created myths. At the beginning of WW2, when the USSR imposed an ultimatum, the head of state decided to save lives (it did not save, cleansing, arrests began, many thousands deported).
This whole thread is great on the history of conventional war. Troops on the ground. Which he is obviously losing.
But, NATO response? Nuclear option of "bear with a sore head?" He can already see this.
In the first third of the thread, there is a lot on ministerial "court politics" history and people - but nothing about their options later, given a losing Putin?
A thread on Russia
It will be becoming clear to those around Putin, the first and second tier of ‘siloviki’ (security apparatus), oligarchs and technocrats that make up the ‘greater Kremlin’, that whatever happens with this war,
By far the best thread on this that I’ve seen. Integrates the geopolitical/strategic aspects of this war very well with both history and the underlying ideology of the leadership in Moscow. Thank you 🙏
Thank you Kamil, very helpful info. Pls note your Twitter handle ‘@WoodrowWilsonCenter’ needs correcting to @TheWilsonCenter otherwise you might be thought a mythological academic :)
Thank you for great thread, very informative and historicaly grounded! Only one question torments me. How likely is that Putin will use nuclear weapons? Now he is squeezed into a corner, the economy is collapsing, the main goals of the special operation have not been achieved.
I think that the next scenario could be - he just points a nuclear weapon at Europe or Ukraine and says - give up, otherwise I will press the button. This completely goes against the rhetoric of peaceful liberation of Ukraine from neo-nazis, but his ego is too big to lose
Stop worrying about this, Seriously. You do not understand the gravity of that concern.
Also Putin doesnt do shit, he orders someone to do it for him. And do you truly believe there is someone who would obey a command that basically dooms the world?
At this point I really believe he would do anything
And hes the president if he orders someone to do it they habe to do it no matter what they think or want
It wouldn't be the first time in history that sections of an army refuses to obey direct orders that they feel are totally misguided.
It's one thing to accept to level a city. It's another to accept to press the button that will end up vitrifying the entire earth
I am sure, that after RUS use nukes, entire EU and NATO would be determined to destroy every russian city. There would be no peace talks, only RUS unconditional surrender.
100% truth, fate shows Poles.
Religious separateness and persecution of faith on the part of Orthodox Russians allowed us to preserve the national identity in the peasant strata. Each national uprising is a messianic myth that grew stronger and stronger.
Thank you Kamil for another great thread.
Ukraine vs Russia combat experience a real 👁️ opener (also key to understanding Vietnam vs US War btw).
Does it also follow that Ukraine has older troops to call on?
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Thank you for this thread. Good read 👍.
However, I’m surprised the nuclear arsenal is not mentioned at all (or I missed it). Imo Russia can’t afford to lose and will win by all means necessary. It’s no secret that Putin sees the deployment of nukes as a viable strategy.
If a single nuke gets fired, whole Russia gets glassed by NATO. Putin knows the rules of the game and there are too many people around him that would like to survive this war. Taking an entire nation or half the world with you is not an option.
The fact that everyone assumes that Putin isn’t crazy enough to actually push the button concerns me and therefore people underestimate him. He won’t just back off and accept defeat. For him that would also mean the end. So imo he’s all in. All or nothing. Scary
Thanks for the thread. Great job. I had no idea about wars and I have learned a lot. I hope and wish that he is right and Ukraine wins. In fact, it has been the Russians who have asked to negotiate. Hoping this ends.
"But if you lost after the brutal and bloody fight your mythos is alive." That is true. We know that, as we remember 1939: Westerplatte, Wizna, Bzura, Warsaw. 1944 Warsaw Uprising. But also victories like Battle of Britain, Monte Cassino, Falaise.
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 72 saves of this thread (ranked #321)
• 174 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #270)
And that's how it worked in history of #Poland. That's how we were able to restore our independence and rebuild our state in 1918 after 123, 4 generations of occupation and just 2 years later beat the bolsheviks. Good luck #Ukraina!
A quick one. If Ukraine has over 400,000 veterans, territorial defence force etc, why are they asking for foreigners to volunteer in combat, arming ordinary citizens and convicts? Why are MPs posing with arms in photoshoots instead of posing with actual combat troops?
cus even with that 400k, a lot of them don't actually want to fight, and russia still has more troops than them. even if those troops aren't experienced, big numbers still mean a lot in war
Because the breaking news is, most people don't enjoy dying, even if they feel the cause is right. Plus, Russia still has the numerical advantage in every way.
Ok. He's losing. He realizes that at some point. What are his options?
- kill himself
- start a nuclear war (which will kill himself + everybody else)
- ?
He's an animal losing a fight, but with control of nuclear weapons.
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Also, I have to point out another point of view: Zelensky sold EU the perfect deal: EU has been fighting to find ways to make Russia weak for years, half of the time losing the influence to the propaganda. Now they can prove that EU is strong and stays behind their convictions.
brilliant thread & conclusion.
Hence i think the call out ⬇️
"You are more than your myth's" is one that everyone, no matter the nationality should ponder & heed.
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 77 saves of this thread (ranked #287)
• 179 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #261)
Brilliant thread. I learned a hell of a lot, with a lot to think about. But on the last point of losing the last battle with the mythos intact, what about Byzantium? That mythos should still be intact, right? But they have never tried to get Constantinople back.
Wow, excellent! Thanks for pointing this out to me. Indeed, the Μεγάλη Ιδέα tends to prove the point about the survival of the mythos and its desire to be realized. The mythos has made sure that Constantine XI died heroically.
Thanks, I didn't know that legend "a popular legend which endured for centuries that Constantine had not actually died, but had been rescued by an angel and turned into marble..." whatever the truth is, the confusion of accounts is perfect for the myth.
Fantastic Thread, Kamil.
Just one more question, How do you value Nuclear Weapons factor in a hipothetical and expected Army escalation between OTAN/USA and Russia?
This thread was so educational and informative and presented in an excellent, easy to follow manner with relevant and familiar examples to illustrate your point.
Absolutely brilliant. I learned so much…thank you. 💯
A very good example to this is Gallipoli campaign in WW1. A battered, sick man Ottoman Empire stood well against the British Empire and held its ground for months, where W.Churchill had predicted that they would take Dardanelles in less than 1 month.
Just to say the thread is great. I have some questions. I'd expect way more firepower specially ground-ground missilery as seen previously in the Donbas before sending infantrymen, what happened? where is the air power used in Syria and the electronic warfare? damage control?
WOW Kamil, Thank You so much for this deep, rich, and exhaustive explanation of the actors, and backgrounds of this war. I appreciated a lot also the philosophical views illustrated. BTW I am from Venice. ( We are contemporary people with no alived memories sadly from the past
A very insightful and helpful thread, thank you very much. And bringing up the Oprichniks (which I had never known about before) reminded me of a bit from Jim Butcher's "Codex Alera": "But battles are won within the minds and hearts of the soldiers fighting them." (Cursor's Fury)
This is the best thread to read about this war, yet it is not taking into account one important topic - the rat in the corner (with nuclear warheads) scenario.
Putin is not stupid, he is aware of the myth (see the imagery they create of him) and how much a percieved loss would endanger him personally. He would not have gotten to where he is, if he gave up easily.
Doesn't that make him especially dangerous with his WMD?
WHAT descendants? Putin has the power to kill the entire Ukrainian population with his nuclear weapons! And what would stop him? Not his conscience for sure!
Many will read your fascinating thread through the dark glass of their countries' struggle to survive. It brings up the best and worst in a people. My country, for example, is still blighted by the act of a few wealthy men several centuries ago. We call them our Parcel of Rogues.
Congrats, interesting thread. 40 miles of convoy north of Kiev seems an echelon to my non specialist eyes. U present a sufficiently armed for defence Ukrainian nation. Can you justify the appeal and mobilization to send weapons and funds for new weapons?
It's not all about the German war doctrine or the conversion of the Ukrainian people into soldiers. The issue is not just the Ukraine-Russia issue. It should not be tangent to what the satanist money barons who rule the world are planning. There is an effort for a new world order
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Most informative thread I’ve read on this war since it began. Concepts such as PR-maxing VS efficiency-maxing and the functional aspects of the mythological space open up entire analytical dimensions. I will share as widely as I can. Thank you
Even the history, the people of Kievan Rus'...
Or Kyiv Saint Sophia Catedral'...
Their values gives them moral strength, before mongols' invasion, during Russian Revolution of 1917, before Putin's invasion...
Kamil, thank you so much for this thread. I will try to spread it far and wide. Agree with most commenters that this is the best thread I've ever read on twitter.
I thought ppl spent too much time pondering these events, but now the max-thread-count proves it. Def didn’t expect to read a book this morning on Twitter. I’m not sure if the “max” rhetoric works for me, but uhhhh, well thought out opinion 🤷🏾♂️ Wen Cliff Notes ? Shoygu = Tartarian
Thank you so much for this most informative analysis!!! It seems American intel bought into the mighty Russian myth and expected Ukrainians to fold, per the briefing to the Congress Intelligent Committee. Ukrainians are proving them wrong. MAD RESPECT to all Ukrainians.
Yes, Paul Kagame, Rwanda is case in point....who started life as a Rwandan refugee in Uganda. There may be a million Ukrainians who have fled this week, but it won’t mean they (their children) won’t return with vengeance on their minds...if the Russians do manage to win now.
So to recover their mythos, Russian leaders, esp Putin, will attempt the long, bloody war but never succeed because it’s really already a dead mythos. It suggests that Russia is heading to a very dark period unless there are enough Russians wanting new and non aggressive mythos.
And this mythos theory is probably why the French wanted their own to free Paris in 1944 (after how the funny war ended). Very informative tweet. Thank you for your insights @kamilkazani .
The Baltic tribes keep their mythos in folklore. It survives invasions, surrenders, occupations and purges. They spawn independent states every time there's a vacuum of power.
That concurrs with my theory. In our case was the total opposite.
Apparently futile resistance, ended in defeat, the fact that you resisted heavily catapults a reborning possibility in the future.
Totally agree. It is like with "Warsaw Uprising" where Warsaw was destroyed in 1944. BUT... the myth of Warsaw that defended for much longer than expected, alone.. builds morale of Poles and is celebrated in Poland each year till today. In Ukraine will be the same.
This also explains why the West’s adventures in Iraq and Libya were doomed as they didn’t understand that they were destroying the mythos of those countries and had no appetite to digest them. So they’re non-states, struggling to find a purpose
Yes, it's true. Czechoslovakia submitted to Hitler. It's a subject of constant division in society. Should we defend ourselves or not. Unanswerable. However, a sad example from the Yugoslavian war. Those who took arms to defend changed to killing machines. Humanity evaporated.
Muchas gracias por su hilo . Utilizando el traductor , he leído con mucho interés su información porque tocan aspectos desconocidos para mí y son muy interesantes .
Gracias de nuevo !!
That's why Poland still exist. Because they poles bleed for the simple myth of the Polish State. That changed in extension and localization many times. But exist.
Great example. The Serenissima was one of the great powers of the Mediterranean for half a millenium and now only history nerds and EUIV players even know that it was a thing.
A tourist visit to Venice is full of reminders of the merchant republic. How did it have its own language? Obviously there were local dialects, but didn't the elites all use Tuscan from the Renaissance onwards.
Vienna is the cute historic capital of a cute little mountain country but it's hard to do a tourist visit without becoming aware it was once the capital of a great empire.
Sure you see the edifices of a great empire but that is different from, and more importantly not as powerful as, a populace that believes the ‘myth’ that they were/are an empire - don’t need buildings for the latter.
Henri is your brain proud of it's mirror image? History (the perception of it) shapes vissions and the Venice contribution to trade, interconnectedness as well as grandeur and imperial ambition is there for everybody to see and hear. Cities reflect that past in stone & spirit.
The Venetian Republic literally was restored though. It was re-founded in 1848 and governed itself for over a year before succumbing to Austrian forces.
Very interesting and good thread, Kamil, but you have to excuse my chuckle at the part about the Republic if Venice being UNLIKELY to ever being restored.
zelenskyy has done an absolutely incredible thing and created a dynamic where the russians killing him will make the situation infinitely worse for them
Exactly! We're watching a central Ukrainian mythos being built before our eyes. Historians of all kinds should be taking frantic notes, bcuz win or lose this will be part of Ukranian self-image for generations (centuries)
This could lead to the worst imaginable outcome for Russia, to be resisted by Ukraine WITHOUT NATO! Think about what that will mean long term for them.
and a third one. Again Ukraine has been propped up since before the supposed revelutionary war by the U.S. government. I hope these Republics can have their independence from Ukraine because it was a free election.
I worked in eastern Ukraine for 7 years. Witnessing the deserved 🌍outpouring of support for 🇺🇦 is amazing. As Yeats put it after the supposedly failed Easter Rising's leaders' executions "A terrible beauty is born." That was the end of the British Empire. poetryfoundation.org/poems/43289/ea…
This is a modern myth in the making. The bravery of the Ukrainians after Putin literally claimed that Lenin invented Ukraine. This war is the crucible they will forge anew national myth from. Poor bastard Russian conscripts are the grist for it.
This!!!! Incredible thread , just incredible - Ty🙏🏽- posted tiny bit about myth, legend, heroes - u have pulled it all together what we have been witnessing - it isn’t kinetic (manufactured ) shock &awe , it is real, unplanned , amazing to see this irl as tragic as the event is
He gambled on a far different outcome, which would’ve been glorious domestically for him if it went according to plan. But why gamble in the first place? Simplest explanation is that his domestic position is a lot weaker than it appears.
The first time I heard about Snake Island defenders I was sure that Putin lost - Ukrainians received immortal and unbeaten armor - tmyth as you explained, myth which will be alive for many generations in Ukraine - great
The Russia-Ukraine war so far has had both heroic and horrific episodes.
This is perhaps the strangest of them: the story of how a Russian riot police convoy went to conquer Kyiv on its own.
I do not think you actually understand what is happening here, and what the major players are up to. This is political/war theater for the masses. It sounds like you are getting off on it.
Imagine if the Russian population could wake from their indoctrination and realize they have the power to live free. Use the natural resources & wealth that is stolen by a select few to raise their standard of living to a level they never dreamed of…
I would be all for Puerto Rico's independence but is it true that the people there want it to become the 51st US state? Or do they want go become an independent nation
Currently, there is little appetite for independence. But I don't think the majority are interested in statehood. Not after all the disappointments and humiliations portrayed by the USA during Hurricane Maria and through the bankruptcy.
The "mythological space" where the state is invincible. Hence importance of foreign exposure/defeat of a state, could be Spain. Catalans, w Stockholm Syndrome, take note.
I recall some ppl wondering aloud why Putin would assassinate his enemies in foreign countries using novachuk & polonium 210, 2 methods that pinpointed Putin's culpability. It was Putin's attempt to bolster his mythos - I am so powerful I kill wherever/whoever/whenever (fear me)
Yes. Amazing thread. And this current Russian force doesn’t even have a myth. The only one acting on myth is the (short) man in the high castle. Wow. This will fail.
I am NOT for WW3 But being a Vet and a Christ loving man, I think Countries around the world who believe as I do should be standing beside them (Literally) Brings the military Aid Don't Sent It!! The USA and Germany Egged Puttin on every 15 minutes leading into this.
Umm... I'm not sure what you are talking about, but crimean forces were defeated (heavily, ~20k rus vs ~60k crimean forces) in this battle in 1572 - battle of molodi. Moscow was burnt in 1571.
Yes! Russians experience existential dread of Chechens after what the did with russian conscripts in 1995. Everyone other see overveight sardaukaar cosplayers in fucking Prada boots. Yes, unlike russians they might not hesitate to torture and murder ukrainians, but come on.
I like this concept. As persian "immortals" failed against spartan/athenian phalanx. They didn't stand a chance against a competitive military strategy that believed on their own skills, and not overrun disbanded routing local armies.
Note that we don't really know very much about the "Immortals" from Persian sources, the majority of their descriptions being written by Greek authors. So probably take these comments with a grain of salt ;)
You see that the European jets are going to be in Ukrainian airspace within 50 minutes from now. That Russian convoy that is north of Kyev might not be there for long….
Dear Kamil i spended a lot of time reading your whole post and in general I enjoyed the read. But yes at 1st Muscovites was defeated by Crimean Khan's however lately Ivan destroyed it during Battle of Molodi. Why Ivan's kung fu became better just only 1 year latter?
Well yes and no. The 2nd part of article I dont like it. It is based on some esoterics and not facts. If you know Muscovites is a predecessors to modern Russia with capital in Moscow and it became as it is mostly because they was in need to form state as Mongol empire was pushing
And in fact they did it 1st by destroying Mamai , latter Moscovits was able to take Kazan and after they succefuly defeated Crimean Khaganat. By that time the Mongol empire was almost close to non-existant and those victories of Moscovits has nothing to do with esoterics :)
Picking off individual leaders of resistance. Myth of prohibition to resist. Sorry to digress, but rings true in Catalonia re Spain. Independent it's should read this thread on power of discourse.
For the mythological nature of human institutions see, Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari, Ch 2: "The Tree of Knowledge"; that of money see Ch 10: "The Scent of Money". These things exist only if you and your social context believes that they do.
Quite: The current system of money creation rests on a law transaction (Promissory Note described ⬇️) Radical constructivism regards that as a 2nd order reality construct
Paul Watzlawick also refers to Vahingers "philosophy of the as if" (1911), ie most of the time we behave "as if" something is the case.
(eg humans having free will)
32:04)
When I saw the "we are here" speech I could feel Ukraine's national story bring refreshed and strengthened. 2014, and all the history and literature before it. I could feel it in my soul. This sounds cheesy... to the enlightened, but it's how things work.
"Power is a myth". Tell that to all those who have been rounded up, killed, or put in concentration camps by Putin. They chose not to believe it and they were reminded violently that political power, like Mao said, grows out of the barrel of a gun!
You miss the point. Who rounded up and killed in people in all these criminal regimes? The soldiers and guards. Why? They obey orders because of the myth of power.
Just like Finland in the Winter War.
Finland firmly lost, but inflicted such a cost and prevented Stalin from his objective people remember it as a victory.
Right? 😂😂✨✨ like the whole world is crushing on Zelensky BECAUSE he looks like the identifyable hero in mythological texts. It’s tapping into the collective consciousness in ways that are far more powerful than anyone anticipated. Mainly because Putin’s bad at psychology 😂
Eh, it’s less that though that’s true, and more, the exact way he went about this created a mythological situation where no matter how Putin plays this, the Ukrainians are seen as victims, martyrs, and even heroes. It taps into the best of human nature, and they are who we want
we want to be - heroes and martyrs. Which is why so many people support Ukraine, and like Zelensky so much. That and they’re literally suffering a grave injustice right now. No matter what they’ve done, unless they bomb Russia first, it is extremely immoral and unjust to bomb
Well, ok, this is a good read. But you failed to invoke Ukrainian 'myths.' You erroneously say UKr left this mythological space. Sir, Ukr has so many freedom fighter myths, I would need to write all day. Remember Zaporozhian sich; that is in DNA of every Ukr. 1/2
2/2 And then great painter Repin, called Russian, hails from Ukraine. Have a look at the famous painting. It is his face writing the letter to the Sultan
Incredible thread. I don't personally have the expertise to be able to say that, yes, this is all true. But it has the ring of psychological truth—understanding of motivating forces on human behavior. And the tweets about the centrality of "myth" in conflicts is smart.
Really great thread. I would argue that this conflict is kinetic (in it's true form); and it is that, and the outcome which creates, promotes or destroys (hopefully in Russia's case, in this instance) myths.
There must be something about military analysts that makes them all so confidently right or wrong on every issue. This is the exact spot where you became confidently wrong.
I was thinking about it, Putin has tried to build this myth component in to his current strategy, but it’s failed. Russians grow up hearing about the bad fascists that their grandparents fought with and the glory of the Russian people is in this (Победа над фашизмом)
And he’s selling it via his propaganda to the Russian people - “we are liberating Ukraine from fascism”, otherwise people would think that he’s insane going against his own blood/family (as you probably know - the myth of brotherhood between Russia and Ukraine is big)
That’s why the propaganda works so well for the 40+ generation of Russians, they are born in the last decade of the USSR and believe the fascism myth. The 20-30 yo go out to protest and the ones who support the regime has been stripped of their humanity due to the constant abuse.
Putin’s been abusing his people since 2008, the repressions for speaking up were severe from the beginning. Standing up for your rights was a life-ruining event. For you and your family. Another myth of “моя хата с краю» grew out of proportion due to the memory of repressions.
No other unifying idea was introduced in the modern Russia since 1992. Ukraine has the EU idea, a better life of freedom and sovereignty - this is worth fighting for. Russians live with the idea of defending the glory of the past. They have nothing left, so they are demoralized.
This is a great soil for the propaganda seeds he’s been spreading since 2014. And this war will crush the moral even more. The result - the propaganda will keep getting more absurd. Russia’s war with myths is lost long ago and now we can just see it more clear.
Putin can pivot away from failure in Ukraine by saying that the West is now at war against Russia. So, let’s say there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine and that leads to some sanctions rollback, he then basically claims it as a win against the West and survives (for now).
I've read your thread till the end. Thank you, I learned a lot. Question remains how Putin will react to a defeat?
Any historic examples of how tyrants react to the humiliation of defeat? Do they retreat, vent their anger internally? Or do they come back with a vengeance?
The people who know Putin the best -- people I know in Russia -- are worried about his recent nuclear statement. The people who know him the least are saying it's cheap talk.
Even the russian civilians that do want Ukraine to be part of russia or become a russian puppet state wouldn't support putin if he leveled Ukrainian cities to the ground
I'm afraid of a Rotterdam 1940 scenario. Quite some parallels:
Trying to seize & decapitate government through paratroopers, but failed.
Unexpected fierce resistance in key points, leading to unwanted delays.
Painful losses of elite troops.
German & Dutch supposed to be brothers, resistance seen as betrayal.
No key cities captured yet.
Air defences not sufficient, leading to vulnerabilities.
One city leveled to the ground may force the Ukrainian leadership to prevent this from happening to the others...
If Russia doesn’t score a convincing win, and the early rounds certainly don’t indicate that they will, then it strikes me as an internal conflict within Putin himself. A battle of his self-preservation (political) skills vs. his megalomania (personality needs). While he knows…
how to accumulate and wield power, I don’t know if he has the political savvy to finesse a situation. Has he ever had to (as he has no political adversaries/competitors)?
He could cause a major bomb to go off in say Moscow with horrendous casualties and then justify crazy action against Ukraine. I’m thinking he might even nuke a city.
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 37 saves of this thread (ranked #993)
• 139 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #348)
i'd really like to shove this post up teh rear ends of all those who now claim "different from 2014 these are real refugees"
dont get me wrong, i 100% support welcoming any ukrainian refugee. but it displays the huge hypocrisy and racism of the tedious european refugee debate
This cannot be emphasized enough - and we can translate languages - it’s as significant as the broadcasts of the vietnam era , or the footage shown at theatres in WWII
Blockades are not easy. Its very expensive, for one. Takes time. Bored stationary troops are vulnerable to ambush and counter-attack. Locals will inevitably break the blockade - finding ways to get in supplies, weapons, ammo, etc.
You know this is really interesting--if Putin putting nuclear forces on alert (via a televised speech) was meant to unite Russia into a Cold War infused patriotism, it might *boost* the myth of Ukraine being easy to win. But if that doesn't work (doubt it will) what's next?
Putin is surrounded by boot-lickers, but dude must know he made a whoopsie. And he can't endure a long battle with the world with all those sanctions. Feels like some marginal way to "safe face" could get him to withdraw troops at this time and save the major military resources..
After all, the Russians do not destroy the infrastructure of others. than military. In Ukraine, power plants, waterworks, and telephone communication are operating normally. I don't understand it. After all, these are strategic goals and Russia is not destroying them.
It seems like 🇺🇦 is trying to get the message out that they're treating POW very kindly, as well. Warm tea, letting them call home to mom. It's the sort of message that should be really demotivating, depending on who gets to see it.
So much this. Even a casual look will tell you that the Russians have always been poorly trained, poorly led and poorly motivated. I love them but they really need to completely change the NCOs. They don’t even do night ops. They’d be crushed by any western army.
Good strategy.
Show up numbers.
Nobody messes wothnthe Chinese.
They tell you we 100m foot soldiers.
Many cant carry a gun. The numbers really intimdate
Those 450 milions of Euros Layen announced? They just paid for Bayraktars imo which were delivered immediately today and are their way (Turkish operator). to make that large column of Kadyrov boy Putin version of "highway to death". Next morning, game over. Putin can't hide this
Kamil, TY for thoughtful analysis. Certainly informative. Can I ask what your thoughts are if Putin is unpredictable and with a few screws loose in that paranoid mind, why would he be limited to conventional arms. He allowed use of chem wpns in Syria and has tactical WMD on hand
The question is against whom. He could start using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but they are a very blunt tool against a guerilla army. Against NATO? Get out of here, even his own subordinates will shoot him before allowing him to start a nuclear war that destroys Russia
That's what's starting to concern me. A defeat isn't an existential threat for Russia - Ukraine was never going to march on Moscow, obviously - but it may well be fatal for Putin's regime in time. And desperate men do desperate things, if nothing else to avoid appearing "weak."
1. In the end, it's like this:
- Those who care about the grandeur of their country and nation, will do everything to enrich both (ecnomically, cultually etc).
- Those who care about their own grandeur will sacrifice their country and nation to enrich themselves (money, power).
Lol what they won the right to if their lucky have a constant rebellion right next to nato territory and the cost of their national reputation and probably thousands of lives
Cuidado! Que el tipo está herido;y no aceptará una derrota tan fácilmente!. Ucrania y todos sus vecinos están en peligro por un posible exterminio químico. Fue cómplice de uno en Siria con su colega también Genocida,Bashar al-Ásad
Presidente de la República Árabe de Siria
Russia will carpet-bomb Ukraine back into Stone Age before it ever ‘tucks its tail’ & accepts ‘loss’ in Ukraine. If Russia can’t win in conventional ways, it will make sure Ukraine is basically completely finished as a functional country. There’s no end-state where Ukraine ‘wins’
Syria was not a actually a war. But how Syria conflict shaped Russia reaction in Ukraine? For me seems that they tried to frame it like an operation against terrorists..
Espero lo juzguen por crímenes de guerra por sus famosas "Operaciones Especiales", que han masacrados humanos en Chechenia, Siria y hoy en Ucrania. El sujeto es un Genocida.
Defense in depth is the military strategy of letting enemy forces expand in space, which weakens them. Then counter-attack weak points, disrupt their supply chain, envelope isolated enemy troops. Russia is *extremely vulnerable* to this defensive strategy.
Not wanting a NWO, just think it best to remove someone who has been there for too long. Being in charge for too long leads to "strange" decisions being taken.
Fiat has also been there for a long time, which makes it a valid currency system. And yet you advocate for crypto.
So which way, western man? Is it 'seniority', or is it 'innovation'?
25 февраля 2022, 19:50
Политика
«Берите власть в свои руки». Путин обратился к украинским военным Путин сравнил украинских неонацистов с террористами
Мария Шустрова
Прослушать новость
Anthett MNM M
РИА НОВОСТИ
269 po 269,7K 11:33
Стрелков Игорь Иванович А теперь о ещё более грустном:
Наступление на «основном восточном фронте» буксует по причине полного ОТСУТСТВИЯ ВТОРОГО ЭШЕЛОНА. Пройденная территория не контролируется, развязки дорог и важные пункты под контроль не ставятся,
гарнизоны и крупные группировки противника фактически игнорируются. При этом тыловые колонны движутся без малейшей охраны по незачищенной территори, как будто это какая-нибудь Рязанская область. Что уже привело к разгрому и даже полному уничтожению нескольких таких колонн. А
противник не дремлет и «медийной выжимает все» из каждой такой «микро-победы». На лицо крупный просчёт, вызванный, вероятно, неправильной оценкой обстановки и последовавшим за этим «шапкозакидательством».
1,2K P 95
excellent read I was just thinking in reality the Russian economy is no bigger then Texas or New York this becomes a major player beginning the opening of business tomorrow!
Overall you're mostly right, this war is lost. There's no way to end it "good" for Russia and no one will forget it. Stop fighting, remove the army or burn the world to the ground. I hope Putin haven't lost his mind completely.
Can Bayraktar float still like a helicopter? If not, is this video captured by a separate drone? Obviously this video is not from an aeroplane type of fast moving aircraft like Bayraktar seems to be.
Bayraktars work in pairs. One lases targets and the other pummels, then they rotate.
That's how you have almost all of them in the air near constantly.
Okay. The laser comes from another Bayraktar. But in what aircraft was the camera that captured this video? Bayraktar minimum speed is ~100km/h? The camera is floating in fixed position in the air->the camera cant be in another Bayraktar?
İt seems to me that it is moving, not stationary. Considering that the bayraktar has sensors that observe the impact of mam-l munitions (with a range of 15 km), İ'd say that this is a tb2 filming from kilometers away.
I feel validated. Made this exact point about light forces on the Ukrainian side blending in and letting the front line units go past, then playing hell with the support columns.
I wonder if you would entertain a response to another thought in this same line. One military aphorism I have learned is that only infantry can truly hold ground. The Russians of course have infantry in their invasion Force, a lot of it. They don't seem to want to act like..
... infantry though. They want to stay in the bmps and tigers, and not venture much more than a few yards away from the roadway. When I was an infantryman we were taught to avoid roads like the plague. Ditches and arroyos and thick stands of trees were our roads.
If the Russian infantry does not fan out into the woods and Fields and side streets of the towns they go through, they're not truly attempting to hold the ground at all. They're ceding it to the Ukrainian army. To me it has echoes of Finland 1939. Vietnam to a lesser extent.
Sort of like a Blitzkrieg blowback - with the second attacking echelon (a void) replaced by Ukrainian defenders. Ukraine's local defense forces have a less quantifiable advantage of unequaled local knowledge and personal motivation. Advantages fully quantified in combat 🇺🇦
Amazing and informative thread. Thank you so much for sharing your insight!
*(minor, minor thing, but for future reference from a native English speaker: it's "pandered," not "pondered")
I don't understand how "there is no second echelon" is consistent with "only half of Russia's troops amassed on the border have been deployed into Ukraine" which most sources seemed to be reporting (at least as of very recently)?
The way I understand it is the "second echelon" comes immediately after and reinforcing the first, whereas these deployments have been staggered too greatly to reinforce positions.
Like a tower defense game where the enemies go slowly and one at a time.
They split their forces into 4 parts, also not all troops on the border are combat troops, there are supply and logistics lines as well. Given the losses he took, he doesn’t have the troops needed to take the country or even to take Kiev in an urban warfare
This is what I was thinking - get a bunch of bodies inside the country, to be backed up by subsequent groups. Here, you seem to say that isn’t happening. What’s left? Threaten nukes to come away w part of Ukraine?
Sounds like a super dumb strategy: You lose the shock effect and allow your enemy to organise and fully switch to war mode. Plus you lower the morale of your army and support at home by the sheer number of casualties...
Also, it seems at least some of the captured soldiers (if those impromptu videos are to be believed) thought the same thing. It doesn't seem they were prepared to actually be fighting beyond skirmishes.
So, eventually we are stating the obvious, than most "observers" have no a clue about Ukraine, and they are not shy to show it. Almost a decade of disinformation.
The question was in the beginning (including in my mind), how clean was UA army of RU intelligence moles.
I am glad to see, that pretty clean.
That was very different in 2014 where all lines of communications were so infested
Very interesting analyses. Hope he pulls back, but we know the honor ego shit will be on the way. Anyway, this part of your text, where he expected UKR to surrender (day 1?) is the only part that I'm considering. Can so well informed dictator really also be so naive?
True. Same immortal myth exists in history of Poland with our bloody uprisings and wars: 1410,1612,1683, 1794,1830,1863,1918,1920,PW1944. In many hearts and minds today.
Wow. Somehow I think Ukraine outsmarted Russia here. I'm brought back to Roman Emperor Aurelian, during the crisis of the 3rd century when the Empire was about to collapse, he made every city sustainably self-defending and built walls around them (the precursor to castles!).
You didn’t mention the fact that the British Army ‘Operation Orbital’ have trained the Ukrainian military for the last 9 years, as has the US and other partners.
Great thread by the way.
In a seemingly legit video on YouTube, they mentioned that Ukrainian tanks have been upgraded and actually are superior to the Russian tanks.
However, outnumbered of course
Surtout que pour l'instant ils ne touchent pas aux civils et on dirait que Poutine se sert de cette première avancée pour expérimenter ses troupes, ils ne combattent pas en BTG (bataillons interarmées) comme le disait Kofman. Ils sont en rodage et les grosses pertes sont logiques
Not develop Already made it and ready to war. Turkey almost deal about sell to "Bayraktar Akıncı " to Ukraine war is stopped deal. It is Unfortunate. Akıncı is real game Changer with weapon capacity.
If Ukraine has no plans, no western air support, then at the very least, get them the drone arrays and Western training in secret border positions.
The Drones are highly effective, don't lose pilots, and Russia can't tell who is operating them or where
twitter.com/Zugzwan1343295…
What’s too late? Ukrainians don’t need to hear shit like that right now they’re fighting for their lives and Putin thought he could take Ukraine in 48 hours but they are taking extreme heavy casualties so don’t talk stupid about it being over!
Yes, but during Azeri war with Armenia, some drones were directly controlled from Turkey, so they had more.
They should do the same here, nobody knows where the pilot is.
Saw a few improvised vehicle pics from the Donbas region a few years ago. Seems they would mount these pods to just about anything - even civilian trucks.
It would mean tens of thousands civilian deaths in Europe. So i believe that option was definately not on table before the start of this "operation".
But it might be on table now, when Putin becomes more desperate.
First public save of this thread! 🏆
Readwise users: Like this reply to save kamilkazani's thread to your account without cluttering their replies 📚
Stats:
• 105 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #452)
I've rarely read bullshit like this, Putin threatens if someone interferes, humanity will experience a war like never before and experts like you think he thought it's all over after 2 days?Please apply to the secret services, they didn't know all this what you're saying
Why he had this reason? He had and have enough his minions in UA army? Are thay disinformated him in such scale? Or UA contr intelligence was so good? Do you have any idea?
Intelligence acquired since the beginning of the Russian military operation over Ukraine has shown an immense lack of logistic support, making this war one of the most unique in 2022 when it comes to surveillance.
A thread 👇🧵
Is this true ?
>grenades taken from Ukrainian warehouses were 99% dysfunctional (ofc, they were 25+ years old) it's not surprising Ukraine lost to Russia in 2014. It's surprising they could fight at all
I find this odd. E.g. WWI rifle ammo, 5 out of 6 rounds work
Nothing, sitting at home at commenting all the stuff over the Internet. On Thursday he posted "I am disappointed nobody asked for my help during this operation".
We call the “vodka specials”
Most Russian equipment we collect follows no standard… each is built slightly poor in a system of the systems that make up the whole weapon systems.
Many systems need to be consumed to make a working weapon… you get “what” you pay for.
The tankies always include Syria in the list. But the slaughter of Syrian civilians was by Assad and his Russian Allies, and secondarily by the so-called Islamic State.