Convopage
See the entire conversation
Why Russia will lose this war?
Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?
I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵
5,948 replies and sub-replies collected so far...
Consider a timely paper on Russian army by Bismarck Analysis. It's good & informative. It's correct on its land-based and artillery-centric character. It's also correct that Minister of Defence Serdyukov greatly increased army's efficiency in 2007-2012. But it's still misleading
Yes, Minister Serdyukov indeed reformed the army. He increased its efficiency, fought with corrupt and crony armament producers improving the army supplies. As a result he became extremely unpopular, made tons of powerful enemies and was ousted in 2012 losing his power and status
His successor Shoygu knew better than that. Now who's Shoygu? Shoygu is the *only* single Russian minister who uninterruptedly worked in government since 1991, since the very beginning of Russian Federation. He worked for all presidents, all prime ministers avoided all purges
What does it mean? It means he's a cunning political entrepreneur, great in court politics, publicity, image. You survive every single administration by maxing your political survival. And to max it you need to minimise animosity. So you never object to powerful interest groups
Serdyukov fought with interest groups and was destroyed. Shoygu was smarter than that. He launched a PR campaign presenting himself as the "saviour" from the Serdyukov's legacy. Whatever his predecessor did, was dismantled. Media cheered, people cheered, interest groups cheered
That's a very, very typical problem. Efficiency-maxing requires ruthlessness in dealing with established elites and interest groups. Meanwhile court-politics-maxing requires pondering to them and not making enemies. Serdyukov was maxing efficiency, Shoygu - court politics
There was another issue. Shoygu is ethnic Tuvan. In such a country as Russia minority member can hardly become the supreme leader. People don't perceive him as ethnic Russian (see his palace) which means he's not dangerous for the leader and you can safely delegate him the army
Shoygy not only purged Serdyukov's appointees, pondered to old military establishment, stopped arguing with army suppliers about the equipment cost and quality. He also pondered to numerous feel-good-lies regarding the Russian big strategy. Let's consider the army vs navy problem
Army vs navy had been a traditional dilemma of European powers for centuries. As a rule, you couldn't support both first class army and first class navy, you had to choose. Some powers ignored this to their demise - like 17-18th cc France. Others were more rational, like Prussia
We kinda forgot it but in the 17th c principality of Brandenburg centered in Berlin tried to play into a "global maritime power". They built a navy, established colonies in Caribbean and Africa (red). Super costly, super hubris, super stupid. Consumed tons of resources in vain
In 18th c. they reconsidered. They sold their colonies, dismantled the navy and started land-maxing. They correctly realised that if they suppress their hubris and minimise the navy (to zero), they can land-max and build the first class army. Which would then unify Germany
So. Land-maxing requires minimising the naval ambition. Does Russia minimise its naval ambition? No. It feels obliged to maintain as much Soviet naval legacy as possible. Keep old ships afloat, build new ones, maintain and expand infrastructure for the ocean navy
Here is another dilemma. Regional fleets can be effectively used in land wars. For example, Russia declared "navy manoeuvres" and then attacked Ukraine from the sea. That's cheap and effective. But keeping a regional fleet doesn't sound sexy. It's efficiency-maxing, not PR-maxing
And Russia is PR-maxing. Putin declared that the share of new ships should reach 70% by 2027. Old Soviet ships are becoming obsolete, Russia's building new ones. BUT. Major Soviet shipyards are located in Ukraine. So now Russia expands shipyard infrastructure to reach this goal
Soviet naval legacy is a curse of Russian military. USSR could afford ocean fleets with carrier strike group. Russia can't. But abandoning Soviet ambitions would require suppressing their own hubris (impossible). So they strive to maintain it. Ergo: they can't and won't land-max
How does it reflect on this war? First, Russian invading force is small. It has LOTS of artillery ofc. But it's not numerous enough to win. Pro-Russian analysts compare their advance with Barbarossa. But unlike Wehrmacht in 1941 Russian invaders have only *ONE ECHELON OF TROUPS*
How is a Blitzkrieg organised? By echelons. First echelon is moving forward as fast as they can. Ofc this means that lots of defenders will be left in their rear. But then the second echelon comes, then third, etc. They finish defenders, occupy territory, control the supply lines
If Russia launched a proper Barbarossa-style Blitzkrieg that would happen now - first, second, third echelons. But the second echelon didn't come. It never existed. Why? First, Russia's *not* landmaxing and thus doesn't have so much resources and infrastructure for the land war
Secondly, launching several echelons would require long arduous preparation. You need to mobilise them, move to the borders, quarter, maintain and supply. It's not that easy. It's a hard job that should have been done well in advance to wage a Blitzkrieg. And it hadn't been done
Why Russia didn't prepare a proper Blitzkrieg? And now we come for the third and main reason. Blitzkrieg is a war strategy. Blitzkrieg is how you break & suppress the enemy who's actually fighting. Russia didn't plan it because it didn't plan a war. It planned a Special Operation
Ofc partially that's just modern discourse. After WWII traditional understanding of sovereignty as of legal right of sovereign rulers to wage offensive war died. As a result modern states never admit they're waging wars. They're waging "pacifications", "counterterrorism", etc
Consider how all the War Departments and Ministries over the world were renamed into "Defence" in late 1940s. Everyone's defending, nobody's attacking. Why does the fighting happen then? Well, because of criminals - "bandits", "terrorists", "jihadees" or as now in Ukraine "Nazis"
Modern world abolished the distinction between the enemy and the criminal, a key idea of the Roman Law. Powers do wage wars, but to do so they need to criminalise and dehumanise their enemies. Hence, all the "terrorist" discourse. In a sense Putin is going with the flow
But on a deeper level Putin is absolutely correct. His declaration of "special operation" in Ukraine is sincere, because he didn't expect the war. He doesn't know how to do wars. For all of his life he's been organising and launching the special operations
First, as a KGB officer. Then, as St Petersburg city councillor for foreign affairs (= illegally selling Soviet warehouse stuff to the West). In 1990s he closely worked with the criminal world and he did it successfully. Here you see him with a thief-in-law, Grandpa Hassan
Btw that's how Putin's pal Grandpa Hassan is celebrating with his close circle. It gives some idea of Putin's business partners and associates
ДЕД ХАСАН: ТЫ СДЕЛАЛ ВСЕ ЧТО МОГ (ДОЛЯ ВОРОВСКАЯ)
ВНИМАНИЕ! Уважаемые зрители и подписчики! каналу нужна ваша ПОДДЕРЖКА для выкупа уникального частного фото- и видеоконтента, чтобы создать для вас еще БОЛЬШЕ...
youtube.com
Putin worked with violent entrepreneurs used to killing. But. He had always had the upper hand. Federal and regional governments were very much stronger than these criminal bosses who were very much replaceable. Everyone of them had dozens of henchmen who wanted to take his place
Putin waged special operations when he had much stronger position than these criminals. And he got used to that. Later Yeltsin chose him as a successor and in this capacity Putin launched a bunch of special operations to consolidate power. Again with full support of higher ups
Yeah, Putin played badass even before becoming a President. But it was easy to play a badass when he was backed up by then President and the entire apparatus of Kremlin. Huge power, no risk, no accountability
Later he initiated conflicts each time his had to boost his popularity and tough image. Chechnya, Georgia, Syria. But neither of this was a war. Every conflict was a Special operation waged:
1) for political goals
2) against small force which had no chance to win against Russia
Putin fought only with small countries. Chechnya - 1 million people, Georgia - 4. Syria had more, but he fought with rebels, with no proper training or armaments. Also "counterterrorist" discourse allowed Russians to simply level entire cities to the ground with no consequences
Every time Putin needed to confirm his alpha status he would devastate some little country with a Special Operation. They didn't require proper preparation because they bore no existential risk to Russia or to him. Like, the fuck they're gonna do? No risk = no need to bother
Putin decided to repeat this little trick again. Hence, not that numerous army of invasion, only one echelon of advance, etc. But Ukraine is much bigger - it has 44 million people. What was Putin thinking? Apparently he was expecting zero resistance from the Ukrainian army
Putin had a good reason to believe so. Indeed, in 2014 Russian regulars ("ихтамнеты" = "there aren't any of them there") easily destroyed Ukrainian forces in Debaltsevo and Ilovaysk. He saw that Ukrainian army is weak and he can easily route them simply sending Russian regulars
Strategically speaking Putin fucked up. He defeated Ukraine, inflicted pain and humiliation. Anyone with an IQ above the room temperature knew the war is not over and Russians would strike again. But - Putin didn't finish Ukraine back then. He thought he'd always have a chance
What happened next was quite predictable. Inflicting a painful but not critical defeat on your enemy is risky. Yeah, they kinda became weaker. But the balance of power within them changed. Court politics maxing interest groups lost and efficiency maxing upstarts get a chance
Formula of institutional evolution = scare + don't finish them. Napoleon smashed Prussians at Jena-Auerstedt, didn't finish them. Prussia evolved. Commodore Perry scared Japanese in 1853, but the US spiralled into Civil War and left them alone. Japan evolved
Nothing motivates as hard as an existential threat. First, Ukrainians admitted the truth:
«I'll be frank. Today we have no army. Now we can assemble a group of 5 thousand capable soldiers max [out of 125 on paper]"
- reported minister of defence in 2014
I'll make a pause, gonna resume in an hour or so. To be continued soon
In 2014 Ukrainian equipment was awful. Almost 100% vehicle and ammunition were 25+ year old Soviet stocks. Moreover, most of it just expired. Like vehicles existed on paper but were never checked or used since 1991. Their radiators, accumulators all rotten and unrepairable
FSB colonel who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 admitted it created problem for him, too. He wanted to restock from the Ukrainian military warehouses, but that stuff just didn't work. Like they took 28 anti-tank missiles and fired them all during Nikolaevka battle. None worked
Judging by the interviews with insurgents who were disappointed to find that rockets, shells, grenades taken from Ukrainian warehouses were 99% dysfunctional (ofc, they were 25+ years old) it's not surprising Ukraine lost to Russia in 2014. It's surprising they could fight at all
Even the ancient soviet radio machines didn't work. Ukrainian soldiers had to communicate with SMS and since network was often awful they had to throw their mobile phones up in air in a hope may be it will catch radio signal few meters over the ground
That's how Ukrainian army looked back then. No wonder it was immediately crushed by Russian regulars in Debaltsevo and Ilovaysk and Putin had every reason to believe that resistance will be broken the moment he launches his regular army en masse
A lot has changed. First, Ukraine has had six drafts. Men were drafted and sent to Donbass. Then most demobilised and returned to civilian life. This Donbass contingent was around 60 thousand soldiers and constantly rotated. So now Ukraine has 400 000+ veterans of Donbass war
Many of them were in combat. Thus Ukraine has huge number of veterans with combat experience. Probably more than Russia. Yes, Russia has been fighting in Syria. It never published the size of its force but it's estimated to be 2-3 thousand. Most Russian soldiers have not seen war
Furthermore, combat they've seen is different. Russian soldiers are used to fighting only when they total superiority. In Syria they would just level cities to the ground with bombers. Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers have fought only against far stronger and better equipped enemy
Equipment-wise this war took Ukrainian army half-resupplied. It developed many innovative weaponry of its own, but almost none of it was produced on large scale. In most cases soldiers have only few prototypes of new, Ukrainian-produced weaponry
Ukraine ordered 48 Turkish Bayraktars TB2 drones. That's not bad - more than twice what Azerbaijan had in Karabakh. But only 12 of them got to the troops by now. Ukraine is also developing new, stronger drone Bayraktar Akinci together with Turks, but it's too late for this war
However, Ukrainians got a number (unpublished) of American-produced Javelins and M141 Bunker Defeat Munition, & British-Swedish produced MBT LAWs. Together with Ukrainian produced anti-tank weaponry such as «Stugna-P», RK-3 "Corsar" and «Barrier» it helps to fight Russian tanks
Ukrainian troops hadn't received many new tanks by the time Putin attacked. But they got new armoured vehicles, such as domestic-produced Cossack-2 with Turkish produced Aselsan fighting modules and a number of American armoured vehicles, humvees, etc
Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a day to fight only in their own town and region
Why? Well, that's pretty obvious. If Russia made a proper Blitzkrieg with several echelons of attack, Ukraine would lose anyway. But Russia didn't. And Ukrainians bet that they wouldn't. First - it's costly and difficult for a state security regime which isn't landmaxing
Second, Putin expected Ukrainian army to run away or surrender in the first day. Like most of foreign observers expected. Now they're of course changing the narrative, but if you look at their posts few days ago they didn't believe that Ukrainians would make any real resistance
So Putin attacked with only one echelon. Troops pushed forward leaving many non-destroyed Ukrainian regulars and levy behind. In a proper Blitzkrieg a second and third echelon would have come to finish Ukrainian defenders. But they didn't. These additional echelons didn't exist
Which immediately created the supply and replenishment problem. The first echelon pushed forward. It needs a supply in ammo, in fuel and well, in people. But these supply convoys are being attacked by the regulars and territorial defence troops left behind
By those few Bayraktars Ukraine got
And reportedly by the levy whom the government just distributed guns. These people would be unable to stand against the Russian columns but they can attack convoys. Consider that Ukraine has many veterans with combat experience among civilians
Strelkov, who led pro-Russian insurgency in 2014 confirms this version in his telegram. Supply columns are being destroyed because there's no second echelon
Putin is apparently concerned. In the video of 25 Feb he called for Ukrainian military to do a coup d'erat. He wouldn't need it if his plan worked in the first place
What does it mean? Putin's plan didn't work. Cuz he didn't plan for war. He never fought a war and has no idea how to fight them. He has been always doing Special Operations and this is a Special Operation, too. They should have just run away or surrender, but they keep fighting
The defeat in this operation will inflict enormous consequences for Putin and his regime. They are unlikely to survive this defeat. Meanwhile, it's unlikely that Putin wins by the same methods
It's not that Russian morale is low, it's rather that it depends on how hard the war is.Most Russian troops would be enthusiastic or wouldn't mind against a small foreign vacation with fun and adventures. Fighting a hard long war with real possibility of death is another matter
Now my laptop died and wouldn't turn on again, so typing from phone
Morale of Russian troops is widely overestimated. According to sociological studies the main motivation to enlist is usually to get an apartment. They are usually young men from underprivileged background with no real prospects in life. That's a chance to get a housing from state
Now if you are dead, you can't get a housing. Perhaps those already in Ukraine have little choice but the very fact that resistance continues, war is bloody and casualties are real would hugely demotivate those back at home. Expect no enthusiasm to go there on Russian side
What Putin can do?
1. Start destroying infrastructure (done)
2. Blockade cities (done)
3. Simply level cities with bombers and artillery like in Chechnya or Syria (may be)
The first two would inflict humanitarian catastrophe and as he hopes break the will
Third one is more problematic. Unlike Chechnya or Syria where you could easily justify the open genocide with "fighting jihadees" which is a fair play in the "war on terror", here it would be more difficult and actually might draw the NATO response. Still, I can't exclude this
So my prognosis is: if the fight continues and victory is not achieved Russian ability and willingness to fight will be disappearing quickly. Putin doesn't have a choice but many of his subordinates do
Even in case when Russia doesn't technically lose and some source of armistice/agreement is achieved, Ukraine already won. Why? Many describe this conflict as kinetic. Bullshit. Human conflicts or interactions are not kinetic. They are mythological and run by myths
Money is a myth. It exists only because we believe so. Power is a myth. Nation is a myth. Institutions are purely mythological. Consider the story of the burning of Moscow in 1572. Ivan the Terrible divided his country to Zemschina (land) and Oprichnina (taken apart)
Oprichnina was under his personal rule. Oprichniks - his forces - launched terror campaign against Zemschina. They slaughtered entire noble houses, massacred cities, killed enormous number of commoners facing no resistance. Why? Were they strong and brave? No. Because if the myth
Russian people existed within a myth of Orthodox monarchy. Ofc there would be individuals who would go against the Orthodox Tsar. But it was impossible to organise a resistance against him. Thus resistance would be individuals and easily crushed by organised Oprichnik forces
Oprichniks became very brave and badass. Because mythology of the Russian people prohibited 99% of them to resist these security forces. So with the time they decided they are really cool. In 1572 when Crimean Khan attacked Moscow Oprichnik forces went to face him
Kinetically speaking they had overwhelming superiority. Guns, cannons, much heavier armor or weaponry. Their defense and firepower was very much stronger. But they were routed in one day simply by arrows. Because they were used to fight people whose myth prohibited to resist them
Within the Muscovite mythology Oprichniks were invincible untouchable demigods, as hands of Orthodox Tsar, who's kinda living God. But when facing foreign enemy they left this mythological space. And entered a new space where they are just people and can get arrow in the face
They were not used to getting arrows in the face. The very realisation they are not demigods but mortals shocked them. They ran away dropping their armor, guns and cannons. Moscow was burnt to the ground despite having total "kinetic" and technological superiority
So. Power is mythological. Russian state security are gods within their own mythological space where they represent the god like state. But what they found that Ukrainians left this mythological space. Thus Russian state security has no power there. They are just mortals
And finally. The very fact of resistance against so much superior enemy very much empowers the Ukrainian mythology. It's enormous mythos building we are witnessing. The very phenomenon of war is inconceivable without taking into account mythological dimension
Consider Venice. When Napoleon came they surrendered without a shot. Very smart, saved lives, saved the city. It's just killed the mythos of Venice. People lived but the Republic died. It was never restored and is unlikely to be restored again
Theorists of war of the bygone age understood it. Clausewitz pointed out that it's important not only if you lost independence but *how* you lost it. If you submitted without a fight, you saved lives. But you killed your mythos. You'll be digested by the conqueror
But if you lost after the brutal and bloody fight your mythos is alive. The memory of the last battle will live through the ages. It will shape the mythological space your descendants live in and they'll attempt to restore independence at the first opportunity. End of thread
HITLER PUTIN ...!!!!!!!!
The best thread I've ever read on Twitter. Thank you.
This is not an overstatement!
I recommend going back and reading his other threads from last few days. Equally long and detailed on the rise of Putin, how the Chechens went from Thron in side of Russia to some of his loyal soldiers that he can call upon
Will do, thank you
twitter.com/UnrollHelper/s… there is an unrolled Chechen thread for easy read
Hello, please find the unroll here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497612… Talk to you soon. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: News about 10 000 Chechen troops leaving to Ukraine alarmed many. And yet, one must know context to understand its meaning. Many assume that after Putin's victory Chechnya became just part of Russia an...…
threadreaderapp.com
Thread of threads
Large threads will be published here every Friday and sometimes on additional days. Also I am now working on setting up a substack - gonna post here when done. At this point let me give a guide to navigate through already published threads - from older to newer
Indeed! Gosh!
I was coming here to say the exact same thing.
11 S 1714
Outstanding. Thank you 🙏🏼
Thanks for this thread, appreciate the insight
And what a thread it was.
Thank you.
Outstanding thread. Thank you so much.
this is really really good
Great thread!
The thread is really great.
And we🇺🇦 will win.
awesome! another great thread
Outstanding, bravo 👏
Me too!
And polish history in general…
HITLER PUTIN MUSI PROSIĆ OBCE WOJSKA WSTYD HA HA HA
This was a RIDE, gorgeous
Very good read. Thank you.
Many thanks!
the is the best analysis so far.
You are doing some great work with education and some historical insight into what's going onto in and around this conflict.
And if you've like this thread I highly recommend going back to read other threads of his. A lot as long and detailed as this. Here is the Chechens one twitter.com/UnrollHelper/s…
Hello, please find the unroll here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497612… Talk to you soon. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: News about 10 000 Chechen troops leaving to Ukraine alarmed many. And yet, one must know context to understand its meaning. Many assume that after Putin's victory Chechnya became just part of Russia an...…
threadreaderapp.com
That's thread is so awesome, i was looking for every tweet like a new episode of breaking bad
So who will win then? Inconclusive other than speculating on a coup, that's not a prediction
outstanding thread ! Many thanks for enlightening us on a such complex issue.
I've learnt much. Thank you for all of this. Now go charge that laptop.
Jesus man, thanks for sharing the knowledge!! Are you a scholar on the subject?
Amazing thread, learnt so much. Thanks
A good example here is Serbia's Battle of Kosovo of 1389 which was built into the Serbian mythos right up unto the present
Battle of Kosovo - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.wikipedia.org
porfis
Halo! please find the unroll here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… See you soon. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
I hope it was a good read
Support my work here: threadreaderapp.com/please/support 💎
Thank you for writing this!
Thank you ! Great !
Excellent thread!Thank you very much!
Thank you. What a read!
Thank you, Kamil, very educative and helpful!
chapau bas
A nice example here would be Serbia, I think.
Or somehow Scotland.
Poland for sure.
Gracias. Muy interesante.
This is the best thread I ever read, and it's not that close.
wow!! last bit applies 100% to the jewish people imo
re conquest and susbsequent exile
I have read it !
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 12 saves of this thread (ranked #3845)
• 112 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #422)
Epic thread with great sources! One question: You say Ukrainians have a lot of combat experience because of the Donbas war. But they were fighting someone, weren't they? Don't those people have lots of combat experience as well?
Sure, but he mentioned that Ukraine rotated its troops in Donbass, and as a result it has a larger pool of veterans.
Russia didn't rotate its troops?
If they did, it wasn't probably done on a comparable scale to then🇺🇦 army.
Since Afghanistan body bags are a sore point in Russia. Putin has tried to limit real combat risk to true volunteers (effectively internal mercenaries) with far better pay etc, who knowingly take on high risk, and even then, as covered in the thread he has been careful to pick
The defenseless to keep Russian casualties to a minimum. Chechnya, the body bags almost got him into trouble, even as he needed to consolidate his power. This is the first time since Afghanistan that Russia has fought an opponent that had any chance to go toe to toe with them.
And he only did it, because he incorrectly thought it would be another Georgia. If he had realised it would be an Afghanistan he would not have tried.
Now he’s in so deep that if he pulls out it will make him look weak
According to this article it was expanded in 2015 to include all soldiers deaths, period.
Vladimir Putin declares all Russian military deaths state secrets
President extends secrecy to deaths in peacetime as well as in official wars, raising concerns for those who report deaths of soldiers in Ukraine
theguardian.com
Many Russians are afraid of harassment and hostility from foreigners, you need to understand that the Russians themselves are hostages of this situation
Excellent
Thank you for writing, Kamil! 🙏
This thread is exactly right about the mythology of this conflict. We are seeing the legends, not just little ones, but things on the scale of the Alamo or George Washington being born right before our eyes. Even in defeat, they will go on in Story. Stories matter.
I only hope history doesn't forget this moment. Ukraine truly is the only blockade for authoritarianism in Europe right now, and they are fighting to hopefully keep the rest of the world from an escalation of war.
Immense bravery from those people. Simply immense.
Seriously??
This the modern day version of Ancient Greek Sparta’s famous 300
Also, you say the second echelon didn't exist, but what about the 150,000+ Russian troops massed on the border? If Russia used them all, would it be enough for a blitzkrieg?
US defense said this morning they have already used 2/3 of them.
In Germany we say „das ist Kanonenfutter“. A great many untrained young soldiers who have no idea about war (as described). 150k sounds a lot, but not enough for such an attack. Not all of them are fighters. E.g. medics, technicians, cooks etc.
(In English - cannon fodder [food] 😢)
That's what's being reported in the UK news. A 3 mile convoy of armaments heading into Ukraine.
Every brigade has hundreds of vehicles. In safe transport a single wheeled battalion takes up around 20 miles on the road. A 3 mile convoy this tight might constitute 3-5 brigades? 20k troops at most? That might not be that alarming, they might still be facing much more defenders
This morning uk news says its 36km heading for Kyiv but what it comprises is not clear
And this is how a new war will begin because you want to live your myth again! That's bullshit!
Can this thread carry on, please?
Absolutely brilliant analysis. Thanks so much.
As the National anthem says, "Poland isn't lost as long as we're alive. What the foreign forces have taken, with sabres we'll get back"
Also how Israel has managed to reassemble itself as a state many times over Millenia despite having being conquered and dispersed many times over. The Jewish identity has remained unbroken from Abraham on downt though the ages tied together by a powerful religious thread
Thank you, Kamil. Really a great thread!
incredible thread👏
Its time to new mythology. Ukrainian's.
Thank you for taking the time to write all of that. I agree with your analysis. And soon the world will too.
Thank you.
Afghanistan was another case where the Russians "got arrows in their faces." (and so did the US)
Oh so true. History so often are hung on the myths of man.
Salam, please find the unroll here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Share this if you think it's interesting. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
(No comment)
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
You also see this in Scotland. Despite losing frequently to England, Scotland always resisted. Robert the Bruce understood this and built an army starting with nothing more than myth.
And that myth is strong enough to have carried all the way to the modern age as an undercurrent, such that they are now looking for independence again after Brexit.
It’s great 👍 Thank you 🙏
Thank you for that great thread.
It understand so much more now than I did before.
The absolute #1 most useful and enlightening thread on this war. Completely brilliant and eye-opening, and love (as an anthropologist) how you end with the mythos piece. That seems absolutely accurate and we all see it congealing in real time.
The mythos piece - to see this in real time evolve, it is real awe
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦👍 Interesting about the apartment for soldiers. I agree with every word about the myth. There is also a founding myth and this war will be one for UKR. I'm glad that UKR fights bravely and continues in resistance. We are with her with all our heart. 👍from🇵🇱
Makes anyone want to be Ukrainian, makes military age people around the world dream to be a volunteer in their foreign legion
It's very powerful
This is a great, insightful and wise analysis. Thank you. I recommend reading it to everyone.
#UkraineInvasion #Russian
Brilliant
"The final ruin of England could only be accomplished by an English government acting under orders from Berlin. But that cannot happen if England has awakened beforehand. For in that case the defeat would be unmistakable, the struggle would continue, the idea would survive."
"The difference between going down fighting, and surrendering without a fight, is by no means a question of "honour" and schoolboy heroics. Hitler said once that to accept defeat destroys the soul of a nation. This sounds like a piece of claptrap, but it is strictly true."
- GEORGE ORWELL, "THE LION AND THE UNICORN: SOCIALISM AND THE ENGLISH GENIUS (1941)"
Amüsant 🤫
Thank you for this very well written and informative thread. This was the very best that I read on twiter since the beginning of this war.
Amazing thread combining history with present on the ground analysis. 👏
Thanks for your great work, itvis godly useful. What do you think about the possibily to user nuke or big bombs by Poutine to overdrive the defeat coming?
Thank you!
Bah! What a thread. I loved it. Thank you very much.
Profoundly informative analysis. Thank you for this enormous effort. Another example highly supportive of the mythos is the legendary Libyan fighter Omar Mukthar.
You just gave me enough hope to maybe be able to sleep for more than three hours
Very very useful insights… I learned a lot
Yes. Finland in 1939-1940.
Wow, amazing thread! Thank you!
Outstanding !
My first thought at the conclusion: If Ukraine emerges from this intact, it is going to be a force in Europe propelled for a generation by the energy of the February 2022 War mythos…
Very long thread but I think it’s on the money. Putin planned a raid on a grand scale, not a war. He expected to decapitate the government and that the bulk of the people would gladly support him. Ukraine is making Russian conscripts pay for that miscalculation.
Amazing thread! Thanks so much🙏🏻
(No comment)
Wonderful thread.
This was fantastic! Thank you.
You see this in the US South and the myth of the Lost Cause. And for decades it was (still is?) called the War of Northern Aggression. They are still fighting it. And close to winning. 😡
EPIC very interesting analysis. @jkass99 this could be relevant to future podcasts.
I've read through your thread all in one breath. Congratulations!
Ukraine already had a national mythos. But with this war we are seeing it in opposition to Russia, and in successful opposition.
These will be the stories, the memories that drive the mythos and patriotism of Ukrainians for generations.
Yeah, at this point I don’t see any chance for Ukrainian people giving up. Even if they are temporarily cowed, they’re going to be pissed and rebellious.
Won't disagree in principle, however in the grander scheme of things, I do think that its worth contemplating⬇️
"You are more than your myths"
A Speech to Europe 2019 | Timothy Snyder - Judenplatz 1010
Why are values and standards essential? How can we live up to ‘never again’ in an era this fragile? The keynote address of American historian Timothy Snyder ...
youtube.com
The world
Amazing and enlightening thread. Thank you. And I hope your laptop starts working again. 👍
twitter.com/kamilkazani/st…
Now my laptop died and wouldn't turn on again, so typing from phone
Brilliant analysis IMO. You've helped me understand some of the complex reality.
Go Ukraine!
This is my first time seeing a lot of this info, thanks for putting in the time to share.
Massive.
(No comment)
Gd analysis. Imo Ukraine will win for sure as long as nuclear action taken out of scenario. Huge hinterland to regroup away from any city bombardment. Potential partisans in million++. Never ending supply guns , stingers supplies money food etc to come. Highly motivated.
Fantastically illuminating thread, Kamil. Thank you. On the practical side, do you think the UKR army has the capacity (let alone the desire) to counter-attack / roll back RU ground forces anywhere outside urban theaters? Ambushes aside. If not, can they win w/out that ability?
Very good question: just stopping your enemy from doing whatever they want to do equals giving up initiative permanently. It may boil down to will to fight on the Russian side rather than simply throwing in more resources.
On CNN they had an expert on who said he believed UKR was leaving a lot of the small cities in order to prevent them from being physically destroyed and focus on the urban areas.
If Putin is trying to invade or attack a NATO member, Russian generals depose him. Everyone loses, including the Russians, their families, their possessions, their good lives. Not even Stalin, who was a bloodthirsty murderer, had the courage to do this madness.
Wow. Best thread I've read yet by anyone. And I just read your Chechnya thread !
Incredible thread.
Excellent and thank you.
Hopefully in this global world, we don’t need those myths who require human sacrifice.
grab this
Thanks, I like How balanced your Views are..
History Repeats
A-z explanation, greate work! 👍🏻
Beautiful
Perfect
Well, almost right.
Nuclear power is a big myth, too. Putin has it. And it's a real kinetic shit, also.
poland a classic example
This Thread is Saved to your Notion Workspace.
Amazing and informative thread. Thank you.
Brilliant thread. Thank you.
Please unroll.
Well done!
interesting and smart thread, but Putin lost this war and execution will be tommorow -stocs and rubel price, imagine to wake up in situation that you must pay 4 car rtv, smartfon etc 3x then 3 days before, russians are resilient but even 4 them it will be shock, so thay have cd
no other way but kick out putin and make new deal with rest of the world - including reparations 4 Ukraine and drow back their military from ocupied parts of Ukr.
Thank you.
super educational thread ! thanks for taking up your time to spread the words !
Wow. Just wow 👏
Even in case when Russia doesn't technically lose and some source of armistice/agreement is achieved, Ukraine already won. Why? Many describe this conflict as kinetic. Bullshit. Human conflicts or interactions are not kinetic. They are mythological and run by myths
unroll
Bonjour, you can read it here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
Here you go, enjoy reading :)
threadsapp.page.link/rXDD
This is utterly fascinating. Thank you.
unroll
Bonjour, please find the unroll here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Enjoy :) 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
unroll
Halo! here is your unroll: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Share this if you think it's interesting. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
Amazing. Thank you.
Damned brilliant piece, thank you !
Ogromne wrażenie robi Pana praca!
I don’t know if Russia or Ukraine will win this battle - it depends so much on logistics and factors I cannot see. However, every day Ukraine holds with courage is another level of solidification of Ukrainian resolve to make any occupation pure hell for Russia. Myths and martyrs.
Every single Ukrainian soldier that falls convinces more to take up arms. The ideology of “righteous battle” is no myth. These people REALLY seem to believe in their battle and their cause.
I don’t see a scenario where Russia is able to subjugate them, regardless of occupation.
Thank you so much for this. I need to find where you are teaching and sign up.
This is an amazing thread
Thank you! Great work!
What a good read ✌️
Helluva thread, thanks for posting.
Beautiful
Kamil, please join @PeterCorless , @int_osic on their Twitter spaces, you’d add some wonderful thoughts. Guys check out this 🔝 Twitter thread.
Perhaps the most impressive thread on war possible on twitter 🙏
Thank you for your thorough post. I can understand much more. And agree with much. I hope this brings discussion that it is worth while.
Oh, well, the "mythos" survives.
If anyone is left alive to remember it. Which is doubtful.
Data said it well in this ST:TNG ep.
Data and the Art of Persuasion
The Star Trek: The Next Generation episode, "The Ensigns of Command," explores how Data comes to a closer understanding of humanity by learning the three rhe...
youtube.com
Excellent. I loved the last part especially. Congrats. And I hope you're right
Holy shit! That was a journey!!! Reasoned, resourced... 11/10, absoloodle.
Thank you, internet stranger-man!
Brilliant
Fantastic thread, really insightful 👏👏👏
Thank you so much for all this info. Brave!
Brilliant. Bravo.
Thermopylae, Camarón, etc.
Beautiful. Thank you for this
Great thread
Amazing read. Thank you.
excellent thread ty
While your thread is interesting, on this particular point I think you are ignoring the huge number who were utterly destroyed and never recovered - enemies of Rome for example, starting with Carthage, but also including Gaul. More recent: native Americans, Africans…list is long
And from a ‘myth perspective’ (though not total annihilation) Japan and of course Germany after WW2, come to think of it. The victorious allies pretty much rooted out any martial myths and made them taboo in ‘civilised society’.
(No comment)
wonderful thread
(No comment)
Hallo, you can read it here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Talk to you soon. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
(Possibly sensitive)
this was an amazing read. thank you!
today, i heard former FBI agent @selectedwisdom say on #MeetThePress. if Ukraine can resist for one week it will be over for Russia. 🙏
Great read, thanks for posting!
Thank you very much for this well-informed and compellingly-argued analysis.
One question — how can it be that the evolution and relative preparedness of Ukrainian forces has escaped the attention of Russian military intelligence? Or did no one want to give Putin that report?
Seems like a colossal blindspot on an institutional scale—beggars belief.
Could it be the Ukrainian troops are capable but it's in combination with cause and myth that make them seem so powerful and that humanity part of the equation doesn't exist or is unrecognized in Russia?
It didn't. That's why he launched full scale invasion.
cost benefit analysis report was given but it was not taken into account
Very good.
Post this thread to your Substack. Since you're in Moscow, be safe!
Very good. I’ll have to read some of your articles. Which ones cover all this?
Fascinating the complete thread.
This is an incredible thread. The Opus for the early days of this invasion.
Thank you for the amount of time and resources it took to put this together Kamil. Cheers.
Wow what a read!
Amazing!
The best read I have come across Kamil. Thank you for doing this.
Thank you so very much for this lesson, @kamilkazani
Excellent thread, Kamil.
Just one thing. In your bio, it should read @TheWilsonCenter
Wow. Thanks. I feel like I just finished a class at West Point that West Point doesn’t teach …yet.
I am glad I found your threads. Looking forward to more.
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Your video is ready. Do you want it removed? contact @/LuisMayoV
Wow! Great thread! Thank you for posting!
Good thread, but a bit to optimistic. Bielorruss is probably joining in, as are the Tchechens, (and Transnistians?); there is progress at 3 different lines of offense of the Russian army (SOUTH; EAST; NORTH). I think resistance is stronger than expected but still insufficient.
This is one reason why Israeli soldiers take the following oath of loyalty, ‘Masada shall not fall again.’
Excellent thread full,of information & historic correlation. Thank you, Kamil, for persevering even on your phone. Thumbs up.
Very insightful. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and insight
This is so true. Sitting in Tulum rn reminds me of how Mayan civilization fell because they believed the myth of the superiority and the emperor mistakenly believed by fighting and losing he would destroy his myth. Instead he surrendered and was assassinated and the myth died
Remember that viruses and bacteria did most of the killing for the Europeans back then. Based on the knowledge about pathogens at the time it’s quite understandable that they believed such a myth
Oh totally, also they came with horses and guns. Totally unseen before
Thank you very much for your detailed explanation!
grab this
Excellent! cristal clear
grab this
Thanks for putting that much time and effort to write this thread.
First public save of this tweet! 🏆
Readwise users: Like this reply to save kamilkazani's tweet to your account without cluttering their replies 📚
Stats:
• 50 total saves of kamilkazani's tweets (ranked #1260)
1. Why would fighting separatist in the Donbas be enough to harden Ukrainian military to fight Russian regulars? Seems like very different combatants...
2. If he's losing, wouldn't Putin be MORE likely to consider city-leveling bombing? He mentioned nukes twice now...
01.03.2022 путін скидає бомби на Харків,. Київ. Знищена Волноваха. Суми, Чернігів, Конотоп обстріли.
Ви взагалі розумієте що Києву 1300 років, князь Київа москву заснував, а путін любить історію, і путін скидає ракети бомби на Київ
Do not confuse propaganda for losing.
Russia is running a very soft "fight" right now, not looking to harm civilians or the infrastructure of Ukraine.
Slow steady progress is seen on every Russian advance, Russia controls Ukraine air now.
Point 2 of yours: let's hope not.
This person ignores nearly a decade of brutal war by Russia against states further east. No Ukrainian has seen actual war.
Do a search for 'Grozny' to see a true war raged by Russia. Let's hope for Russia to stay on course. None want to see the other option.
I dunno, Grozny battle was 23 years ago, i wonder whats 40-ish years old veteran is doing right now, probably only few numbers still active in military.
With his economy completely crumbling under his power, it is unlikely he will last long. It's even very plausibele the Russian people themselves will end his tyranny. And even if Ukrain falls, there will be a guerrilla war making Putins life a hell.
Давайте я немножко расскажу о русских. Имел опыт общения со старым советским военным пилотом. Итак: особым предметом его гордости было то, как он летал на Ту-22м с ядерной боеголовкой и пугал мир. Мир был на грани ядерной катастрофы, но благодаря командиру обошлось.
К чему я это? Русские любят блеф и поднятие ставок. И путин тут не исключение. Он играет роль мачо, которому все равно, нажать кнопку или нет. На самом деле весь конфликт развивается на повышении ставок и демонстрации какой crazy, и:" видите, вы думали я войну не начну? Начал
Видите? А думаете я кнопку не нажму?" Старый лис Байден его раскусил, как мне кажется.
Он прочитал Путина. И сейчас его разорвет руками украинцев.
Украина не проиграет.
are you sure those where only the "local" separatists and not russian trained soldiers too to keep ukraine aways from those zones for 8 years?
Also Putshit is mostly afraid of his own ppl being informed with real facts, thats why the propaganda TV all repeat the same always
Also: Ukraine has hung on long enough that aid and weapons are now pouring into the country, even as the Ukrainians strangle Putin's supply lines.
twitter.com/michaelbirnbau…
(They need to be Russian-made, because that's what Ukrainian fighter pilots can jump into and use from day 1.)
Damn near best thread of 2022 I’ve read.
I wonder how we could view other wars through the mythological lens
What did the defeat of the US do for the mythos of the North Vietnamese or Taliban, and how did it/will it affect the far future
Thank you, very very fascinating perspective
unroll please
unroll please
Saluti, you can read it here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
(No comment)
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Se Putin está tentando invadir ou atacar um membro da OTAN os generais russos depoem ele.
Todos perdem, inclusive os russos, suas famílias, seus bens, suas boas vidas.
Nem Stalin que era um assassino sanguinário teve coragem de fazer essa loucura.
If Putin is trying to invade or attack a NATO member, Russian generals depose him. Everyone loses, including the Russians, their families, their possessions, their good lives. Not even Stalin, who was a bloodthirsty murderer, had the courage to do this madness.
Amazing thread. Connected many dots for me, both today’s news and deep history. 10/10 Would read more.
you need to be paid for this wonderful work. how can people support your writing?
I hope the mythos of the Chechens is crushed - they seem to be quite brutal even to their own people!
Nice thread. Good info. TY
It looks like the guy with the power over Chechnya now, Kadyrov, is aligned with Putin. If he is removed somehow, is it possible that other Chechen leaders may not be as favorable to Putin?
It looks like even that underling did not die unfortunately. It seems both are very cruel men.
Just in. I think Putin maybe actually thinking of the usual city levelling strategy now.
twitter.com/IgorKossov/sta…
Kyiv got carpet-bombed at night. I had to sleep to regain my strength but I heard periodic rows of explosions throughout the night.
Thank very much amigo.
very good work, learned a lot.
But what should Russian people do then?
Yes. The glorious defeat. Canadians made fun of polish cavalry "charging German tanks" with no understanding if how this contributed to the Polish story. Even as they celebrated, mourned and cursed Dieppe. Nations can't understand each others spaces?
But they are built the same way. Blood and honor. Valiant battles, contested defeats and sacrifice. Always sacrifice.
The learned make fun of this when in the lap of luxury. I like to think that when shit hits the fan st least some realize that the good kings die for the people.
Except ots delusional
Putin expected invasion over in one day in a state that has 44 million people been armed for a decade with US weapons in a territory of a comparable size stretching from New York city to Toronto and Chicago and Raleigh.
You make a very important point about Russian mythology and ideology- power. The perception of power is EVERYTHING in Russian politics, and Putin is not a young- or well- man these days. He’s making moves and mistakes, and his people will not respond well.
これもう使えないのか
Excellent, thank you so much!
(No comment)
Hallo, you can read it here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Share this if you think it's interesting. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
Thanks a lot
2/2 ...Admirers of the latters will always tend to despise the former as dishonorable.
While admirers of the formers will always tend to think of the latters as brainwashed idiots.
An eternal question which remains.
1/2 Resist like Czechs/surrender like Italians
Or resist like Vietnamese, Afghans/fall like Germans, Japanese?
For us Czechs the events of 1938/39 and 1968 are the biggest sources of national shame ever seen. This is why on the first day of war the words on everybody's lips was "už žádný Mnichov", no more Munich. I hope all the help we are providing right now eases that historical burden.
The 1938/39 shame was on French & British, not Yours.
The question "Should we have defended ourselves" is still a popular point in childish history discussions in pubs tho :D
1/3 Over the years I have heard similar divagations from other choosed options of resistance (Vietnamese, Palestinian, Iraqi and Afghan refugees);
2/3 people from places with victorious resistances or not so much, where even today the price for a long ago victory or to keep fighting, are still being paid...
3/3 Anyway, shame must always fall on/be against those who attack (and those who omitts),
Not against those who are attacked (and have to find ways to resist defending themselves, in way or another).
thoughts?
Thank you!
Thank you Mr.Galeev. Very interesting and useful thread.
Good thread bro
What's your take on the fact that Russia starts to bring their MICBM in the open? You believe Putin is ready to go for nuclear?
I agree he may underestimate Ukraine's strength. However Russia may win the war once they enter Kyiv.
GREAT analysis. Thank you
Excellent thread. As a Finn I agree to the logic here. The myth of heroic defense during WWII - despite having technically lost and submitted to a harsh peace treaty - still keeps the general opinion very much pro defensive military and conscription but much against offensive war
Very interesting and enlightening thread, thank you. So far I've only read foreign military experts underscoring how much the Ukrainian armed forces' equipment were old, Soviet-era weapons. And the mythology point is very true.
BRILLIANT, BRILLIANT, BRILLIANT.
👏👏👏
🙏🙏🙏
👏👏👏
Waiting for your book!!!
doit
hey @ironhidexx, here is the translated thread you requested
successfully translated thread by @kamilkazani
translated version of thread by @kamilkazani is available now.
translatethread.com
But mythos can hobble you. Brexit was built partly on exploitation of WWII mythos while Germany's mythos had been destroyed so it could happily live and breathe in present reality.
Please write a book about this conflict in the same style. Id buy copies for everyone i know
I will add to the mythology from my country's hustoty. Czechoslovakia was established in the end of Great War, 1918, with legions trapped and fighting Red Army. Legions managed to control whole Transsiberian magistrale, leaving for home through Japan. Myth building
strong and confident nation after over 300 years of being ruled from Vienna. After Hitler came to power, Czechoslovakia started preparing for war building defense lines, training military, equiping. Year 1938 came and Hitler was too afraid to just attack. Nation was
ready to fight, morale high, eventhough realizing Reich was stronger. Hitler called a metting with Daladier, Chamberlain and Mussolini and got Munich Treaty ensuring him "right" to occupy borderline regions. Czechoslovaks stood alone but still ready to fight. President refused
He ordered to surrender, "saving lifes". It crushed the myth. And no matter fighting later in war - fighters at RAF, legions in Russia and Africa, unique assasination of Heydrich - the myth was not reborn. Sure, commies taking down many brave people after the war didn't help.
Latvia is similar. We also gained independence in 2018, in desperate struggles that created myths. At the beginning of WW2, when the USSR imposed an ultimatum, the head of state decided to save lives (it did not save, cleansing, arrests began, many thousands deported).
This whole thread is great on the history of conventional war. Troops on the ground. Which he is obviously losing.
But, NATO response? Nuclear option of "bear with a sore head?" He can already see this.
In the first third of the thread, there is a lot on ministerial "court politics" history and people - but nothing about their options later, given a losing Putin?
A thread on Russia
It will be becoming clear to those around Putin, the first and second tier of ‘siloviki’ (security apparatus), oligarchs and technocrats that make up the ‘greater Kremlin’, that whatever happens with this war,
The world leaders have to create a new global security architecture to solve this #UkraineRussiaWar
Does Klausewitz ever mention "a bunch of pussies"?
Asking for a friend.
Amazing thread, thanks for that!
Thank you, great thread
BRAVO SIR. GREAT READ!!!!!!
Churchill's very point in 1940 (see war diaries)
By far the best thread on this that I’ve seen. Integrates the geopolitical/strategic aspects of this war very well with both history and the underlying ideology of the leadership in Moscow. Thank you 🙏
Awesome thread. Thank you.
"I don't need a ride, I need more ammunition". The myth is secured.
This excellent thread appears to build upon Yuval Noah Harari writings in Sapiens. Brilliant book.
Thank you Kamil, very helpful info. Pls note your Twitter handle ‘@WoodrowWilsonCenter’ needs correcting to @TheWilsonCenter otherwise you might be thought a mythological academic :)
(No comment)
(No comment)
very good!
Stunning! Thats storytelling par excellence! And i mean it positively!
Superb summary, thank you!
This is A THREAD of KNOWLEDGE🤓
but I'm afraid that the end of the Putin myth will not come without damage
Wow, really long but I loved it. Thanks.
👏👏👏👏👏
This is rather long winded diatribe made of half-truths and fiction.
In Poland we call this kind of kinetic defeat a "moral victory". Great thread!
My concern/fear as well…
Stop worrying about this, Seriously. You do not understand the gravity of that concern.
Also Putin doesnt do shit, he orders someone to do it for him. And do you truly believe there is someone who would obey a command that basically dooms the world?
At this point I really believe he would do anything
And hes the president if he orders someone to do it they habe to do it no matter what they think or want
It wouldn't be the first time in history that sections of an army refuses to obey direct orders that they feel are totally misguided.
It's one thing to accept to level a city. It's another to accept to press the button that will end up vitrifying the entire earth
I agree
But that doesn't mean it couldn't happened
Van Russia even launch nukes? They're probably full of mold and rust
I wouldn't be surprised if one of them exploded before they could use it
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Many thanks for this thread 👍
Would we say we see this happening in Aleppo?
Дякую, охуєхно!
Thanks 🙏 an excellent and easy to understand explanation
Poland is the best example.
Really loved this thread, fascinating, thanks Kamil
Dziękuję
Great analysis, great context. Thanks.
Dear Mr. Fantastic Job !
Thank you Kamil for another great thread.
Ukraine vs Russia combat experience a real 👁️ opener (also key to understanding Vietnam vs US War btw).
Does it also follow that Ukraine has older troops to call on?
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Thank you for this thread. Good read 👍.
However, I’m surprised the nuclear arsenal is not mentioned at all (or I missed it). Imo Russia can’t afford to lose and will win by all means necessary. It’s no secret that Putin sees the deployment of nukes as a viable strategy.
If a single nuke gets fired, whole Russia gets glassed by NATO. Putin knows the rules of the game and there are too many people around him that would like to survive this war. Taking an entire nation or half the world with you is not an option.
The fact that everyone assumes that Putin isn’t crazy enough to actually push the button concerns me and therefore people underestimate him. He won’t just back off and accept defeat. For him that would also mean the end. So imo he’s all in. All or nothing. Scary
In that case I hope that the members of his government have some good backup plans ready.
incelemenizi tavsiye ederim.
How long can Ukraine hold on....
Thank you!
Outstanding work. Thank you, sir. Really, really good.
Thanks for the thread. Great job. I had no idea about wars and I have learned a lot. I hope and wish that he is right and Ukraine wins. In fact, it has been the Russians who have asked to negotiate. Hoping this ends.
"But if you lost after the brutal and bloody fight your mythos is alive." That is true. We know that, as we remember 1939: Westerplatte, Wizna, Bzura, Warsaw. 1944 Warsaw Uprising. But also victories like Battle of Britain, Monte Cassino, Falaise.
IPNtv: The Unconquered
The Unconquered: riveting story of Poland in WW2 narrated by Sean Bean. www.theunconquered-movie.com
youtube.com
...and, sadly, the South in the US Civil War
save thread
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 72 saves of this thread (ranked #321)
• 174 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #270)
quite the thread! nice work 😊
A quick one. If Ukraine has over 400,000 veterans, territorial defence force etc, why are they asking for foreigners to volunteer in combat, arming ordinary citizens and convicts? Why are MPs posing with arms in photoshoots instead of posing with actual combat troops?
cus even with that 400k, a lot of them don't actually want to fight, and russia still has more troops than them. even if those troops aren't experienced, big numbers still mean a lot in war
Because the breaking news is, most people don't enjoy dying, even if they feel the cause is right. Plus, Russia still has the numerical advantage in every way.
Yes! This thread has been converted to voice version. You can listen or download it via threadvoice.net/audio/kamilkaz…
Fantastic thread, I learned so much. Thank you for taking the trouble to write it.
Ok. He's losing. He realizes that at some point. What are his options?
- kill himself
- start a nuclear war (which will kill himself + everybody else)
- ?
He's an animal losing a fight, but with control of nuclear weapons.
je pense que ça peut t'intéresser
Excellent!!!!
unroll
Thank you !
Lots of info, I feel a bit smarter now and it makes me want to learn more
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Also, I have to point out another point of view: Zelensky sold EU the perfect deal: EU has been fighting to find ways to make Russia weak for years, half of the time losing the influence to the propaganda. Now they can prove that EU is strong and stays behind their convictions.
Please unroll
This Thread is Saved to your Notion Workspace.
I still kinda think a Russian last resort nuke strike to go out with a bang is possible and that's the thing I fear the most, I think.
Rule of thumb: Never give up without putting up a fight, loss of lives can be repopulated, loss of morale and the sense of belonging cannot.
brilliant thread & conclusion.
Hence i think the call out ⬇️
"You are more than your myth's" is one that everyone, no matter the nationality should ponder & heed.
A Speech to Europe 2019 | Timothy Snyder - Judenplatz 1010
Why are values and standards essential? How can we live up to ‘never again’ in an era this fragile? The keynote address of American historian Timothy Snyder ...
youtube.com
Brilliant.
THANK YOU! This Thread made my Day. <3
Incredible thread, thank you.
Thank you!
So, at the end Putin will find his Waterloo in Ukraine.
save thread
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 77 saves of this thread (ranked #287)
• 179 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #261)
Just brilliant! Never read such long thread but today I just kept on going…
in no way i mean to start whataboutery or defend russia but hasn’t USA been doing the same shit since ages?
wow, such a great thread, thank you <3
Wow!!!
Hi @kidehen I've generated a #KnowledgeGraph nugget from the #thread created by @kamilkazani at: linkeddata.uriburner.com/twingler/?uri=…
#LinkedData #SmartAgent
These last tweets really delivered. Incredible thread, thank you. 😊
Thank you very much for this magistral thread
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍❤
Thank you for this.
Thank you for taking the time to write this and inform so many
muito interessante, da uma olhada.
save tweet
Interesting thread. Thank you.
(No comment)
@thethreadreaderapp
Unroll
(No comment)
Thank you. Gread (th)Read!!
unroll please
Salam, the unroll you asked for: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Share this if you think it's interesting. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
Most amazing thread ive read so far! Great work
(No comment)
Brilliant thread. I learned a hell of a lot, with a lot to think about. But on the last point of losing the last battle with the mythos intact, what about Byzantium? That mythos should still be intact, right? But they have never tried to get Constantinople back.
Well, the mythos survived and they made moves in the direction of retaking the city but it didn't work out after all
Megali Idea - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.m.wikipedia.org
Wow, excellent! Thanks for pointing this out to me. Indeed, the Μεγάλη Ιδέα tends to prove the point about the survival of the mythos and its desire to be realized. The mythos has made sure that Constantine XI died heroically.
What makes you think he's dead?😉
Constantine XI Palaiologos - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.wikipedia.org
Thanks, I didn't know that legend "a popular legend which endured for centuries that Constantine had not actually died, but had been rescued by an angel and turned into marble..." whatever the truth is, the confusion of accounts is perfect for the myth.
grab this
grab this
Excellent thread. Thank you. God bless Ukraine.
please
Hats off. This is the analysis to make them all understand what this is all about. Thank you.
Fantastic Thread, Kamil.
Just one more question, How do you value Nuclear Weapons factor in a hipothetical and expected Army escalation between OTAN/USA and Russia?
Brilhante... Agradeço pelas palavras e concordo com boa parte disso tudo.
Brilliant thread. Thanks for this!
This was breathtakingly good. If you've written any books, am off to buy them NOW.
Oui, le meilleur thread sur le sujet !!
So many words, like a nervous woman, and ignoring Russia's purpose and intent, like a bitter woman.
.
One of the greatest threads I have ever read. Gives me a lot to think about. Thank you.
This thread was so educational and informative and presented in an excellent, easy to follow manner with relevant and familiar examples to illustrate your point.
Absolutely brilliant. I learned so much…thank you. 💯
A very good example to this is Gallipoli campaign in WW1. A battered, sick man Ottoman Empire stood well against the British Empire and held its ground for months, where W.Churchill had predicted that they would take Dardanelles in less than 1 month.
Wow; incredible summary. Quite informative
дякую, було круто!
Gracias 👏🏻
Thank you for this fascinating analysis and history lesson!
compile
Fascinating, thank you!
Just to say the thread is great. I have some questions. I'd expect way more firepower specially ground-ground missilery as seen previously in the Donbas before sending infantrymen, what happened? where is the air power used in Syria and the electronic warfare? damage control?
excellent, and thank you for not bringing up the siege of melos.
WOW Kamil, Thank You so much for this deep, rich, and exhaustive explanation of the actors, and backgrounds of this war. I appreciated a lot also the philosophical views illustrated. BTW I am from Venice. ( We are contemporary people with no alived memories sadly from the past
Very interesting insights as always
Hope you’re right.
compilar
This a good analysis. Too very fucking long for a Twitter thread, though. Thanks
Thanks for the flood
Superb read. Accurate and on point.
Your thread blowed my mind. Thank you.
Magnifico companheiro ! Belo texto, belas informações ! Seguindo você agora ! Abraço <3
Bro. What a ride.
A very insightful and helpful thread, thank you very much. And bringing up the Oprichniks (which I had never known about before) reminded me of a bit from Jim Butcher's "Codex Alera": "But battles are won within the minds and hearts of the soldiers fighting them." (Cursor's Fury)
Great thread, thank you for this!
Amazing thread, thank you.
(No comment)
Thank you. That was very profound and enlightening.
please unroll
kamil, thanks, that is deep!
Thank you!
Very good analysis.
This thread is brilliant. Thank you.
Epic thread, thanks for sharing it!
The fall of Jerusalem, restored after 2000 years
This is the best thread to read about this war, yet it is not taking into account one important topic - the rat in the corner (with nuclear warheads) scenario.
grab tais
Putin is not stupid, he is aware of the myth (see the imagery they create of him) and how much a percieved loss would endanger him personally. He would not have gotten to where he is, if he gave up easily.
Doesn't that make him especially dangerous with his WMD?
Thank you for this informative trip down history lane in regards to Russia and Ukraine.
👍🖖
Great thread. Amazing read and well made analysis.
Great read!!! 👏👏👏💪🇺🇦👊
WHAT descendants? Putin has the power to kill the entire Ukrainian population with his nuclear weapons! And what would stop him? Not his conscience for sure!
Many will read your fascinating thread through the dark glass of their countries' struggle to survive. It brings up the best and worst in a people. My country, for example, is still blighted by the act of a few wealthy men several centuries ago. We call them our Parcel of Rogues.
Thank you for this perfect class!
Great. Thx a lot for this very deep dive revealing so much surprising details.
Thank you for taking the time! Very very interesting!!
Bravo man, thank you for this!
Impressive, thanks!
Congrats, interesting thread. 40 miles of convoy north of Kiev seems an echelon to my non specialist eyes. U present a sufficiently armed for defence Ukrainian nation. Can you justify the appeal and mobilization to send weapons and funds for new weapons?
Russian convoy stretching back 40 MILES advances on Kyiv
A 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers and troop transportation was heading towards Kyiv on Monday, traveling from the border with Belarus towards the capital.
dailymail.co.uk
save thread
grab this
It's not all about the German war doctrine or the conversion of the Ukrainian people into soldiers. The issue is not just the Ukraine-Russia issue. It should not be tangent to what the satanist money barons who rule the world are planning. There is an effort for a new world order
Thank you.
Thanks for this fantastic thread.
(No comment)
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Wow this was really helpful. Thank you.
Here you go, enjoy reading :)
threadsapp.page.link/rXDD
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
Very interesting perspective. Thank you for the detailed presentation! 👏👏👏
This Thread is Saved to your Notion Workspace.
Fantastic thread.
I was really hoping you'd be wrong
But unfortunately you seem to be right
As Russian Bombs Turn Kyiv Into a War Zone, Residents Scramble to Escape
Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s capital—aimed at decapitating the pro-Western Ukrainian government—have left the city’s residents caught in a life-or-death choice between remaining in the city and escaping to safety.
wsj.com
Thank you for this, such a good read!
Most informative thread I’ve read on this war since it began. Concepts such as PR-maxing VS efficiency-maxing and the functional aspects of the mythological space open up entire analytical dimensions. I will share as widely as I can. Thank you
Sir, thank you for an intriguing thread. Much to digest.
Even the history, the people of Kievan Rus'...
Or Kyiv Saint Sophia Catedral'...
Their values gives them moral strength, before mongols' invasion, during Russian Revolution of 1917, before Putin's invasion...
Kamil, thank you so much for this thread. I will try to spread it far and wide. Agree with most commenters that this is the best thread I've ever read on twitter.
Wow such a powerful thread
Thank you very much for this thread, so enlightening.
Gracias
Fantastic analysis, really looking forward to read more from you!
Thank you for this thread.
I am thinking about mythology and the Confederacy right now. The Lost Cause myth is tearing the South apart.
(No comment)
Salam, you can read it here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
Thank you. Very interesting!
Thank you so much for this most informative analysis!!! It seems American intel bought into the mighty Russian myth and expected Ukrainians to fold, per the briefing to the Congress Intelligent Committee. Ukrainians are proving them wrong. MAD RESPECT to all Ukrainians.
Great thread 👊
Can you do one on the strategic implications of the Ukraine War for the #CCP?
Thank you for this fascinating thread #SlavaUkraini
Yes, Paul Kagame, Rwanda is case in point....who started life as a Rwandan refugee in Uganda. There may be a million Ukrainians who have fled this week, but it won’t mean they (their children) won’t return with vengeance on their minds...if the Russians do manage to win now.
We need more!!!! This is so good!
I love how fucking memes is the conclusion of this thread.
So to recover their mythos, Russian leaders, esp Putin, will attempt the long, bloody war but never succeed because it’s really already a dead mythos. It suggests that Russia is heading to a very dark period unless there are enough Russians wanting new and non aggressive mythos.
Breathtaking
Fantastic tread and great points to mull over. Thank you!
Warsaw uprising is good case study of this
“Digested by the conqueror” is a great line. Implies all you need to know.
Not sure I understand, could you take it again?
And this mythos theory is probably why the French wanted their own to free Paris in 1944 (after how the funny war ended). Very informative tweet. Thank you for your insights @kamilkazani .
And Finland.
Those who love to talk about "kinetics" also love to talk about how Clausewitz is outdated.
The Baltic tribes keep their mythos in folklore. It survives invasions, surrenders, occupations and purges. They spawn independent states every time there's a vacuum of power.
Clausewitz! *drink*
That concurrs with my theory. In our case was the total opposite.
Apparently futile resistance, ended in defeat, the fact that you resisted heavily catapults a reborning possibility in the future.
Can you tell me where I can find this Clausewitz quote, please?
Totally agree. It is like with "Warsaw Uprising" where Warsaw was destroyed in 1944. BUT... the myth of Warsaw that defended for much longer than expected, alone.. builds morale of Poles and is celebrated in Poland each year till today. In Ukraine will be the same.
See a history of Poland, not so distant in time
Please unroll @UnrollHelper
This also explains why the West’s adventures in Iraq and Libya were doomed as they didn’t understand that they were destroying the mythos of those countries and had no appetite to digest them. So they’re non-states, struggling to find a purpose
I didn't know many of this facts. Thank you!
Yes, it's true. Czechoslovakia submitted to Hitler. It's a subject of constant division in society. Should we defend ourselves or not. Unanswerable. However, a sad example from the Yugoslavian war. Those who took arms to defend changed to killing machines. Humanity evaporated.
That was the well-argued thread I've ever seen. Thank you for sharing it. It's a much valuable knowledge
Poland build its independence on the myths of uprising in 1830 and 1863.
Splendid thread! I want to thank you for dedicating your free time to write all this.
Absolutely.
That's why Poland still exist. Because they poles bleed for the simple myth of the Polish State. That changed in extension and localization many times. But exist.
(No comment)
Man this thread is absolute GOLD. Thank you. I just hope you're right.
Great example. The Serenissima was one of the great powers of the Mediterranean for half a millenium and now only history nerds and EUIV players even know that it was a thing.
Also anyone who has ever been to Venice as a tourist?
Venice the memey floating city with cute boat rides is not Venice the proud merchant republic with its own language, identity and history.
A tourist visit to Venice is full of reminders of the merchant republic. How did it have its own language? Obviously there were local dialects, but didn't the elites all use Tuscan from the Renaissance onwards.
Vienna is the cute historic capital of a cute little mountain country but it's hard to do a tourist visit without becoming aware it was once the capital of a great empire.
Sure you see the edifices of a great empire but that is different from, and more importantly not as powerful as, a populace that believes the ‘myth’ that they were/are an empire - don’t need buildings for the latter.
"Although referred to as an Italian dialect even by some of its speakers, Venetian is a separate language with many local varieties"
Venetian language - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.wikipedia.org
I mean, yeah, everywhere in Italy has its own dialect. But Tuscan is what everybody in Venice was writing in from the 16th century onwards.
(Most of the time before that they were writing in Latin)
Henri is your brain proud of it's mirror image? History (the perception of it) shapes vissions and the Venice contribution to trade, interconnectedness as well as grandeur and imperial ambition is there for everybody to see and hear. Cities reflect that past in stone & spirit.
PUTIN HITLER I MORDERCA ZOSTANIE OSADZONY PRZEZ CAŁY ŚWIAT CHINY I TURCJA SA PRZECIW AGRESJI PUTINA !!!!!!!!
The Venetian Republic literally was restored though. It was re-founded in 1848 and governed itself for over a year before succumbing to Austrian forces.
1 year? Wow.
Un’interpretazione bizzarra, ma non inutile…
Or Czechoslovakia 1938. 1968 was just a consequence of that.
Very interesting and good thread, Kamil, but you have to excuse my chuckle at the part about the Republic if Venice being UNLIKELY to ever being restored.
This is completely ahistorical.
Same for the Dutch republic in the same period.
I love your optimism.
So your conclusion: russian is as weak as getting defeated in 4 days?
спасибо, очень интересно.
однако надеюсь, что Путин действительно не пользуется инетом и не прочтет этот тред ).
Incredible piece - thank you 🙌
Bravo 👏👏👏
I recall a lecture of scholar Afsah Ebrahim who spoke about the necessity for a nation to have an "usable past"
Why does that remind me of the @TheGhostOfKyiv ?
Exactly! We're watching a central Ukrainian mythos being built before our eyes. Historians of all kinds should be taking frantic notes, bcuz win or lose this will be part of Ukranian self-image for generations (centuries)
This could lead to the worst imaginable outcome for Russia, to be resisted by Ukraine WITHOUT NATO! Think about what that will mean long term for them.
and a third one. Again Ukraine has been propped up since before the supposed revelutionary war by the U.S. government. I hope these Republics can have their independence from Ukraine because it was a free election.
I worked in eastern Ukraine for 7 years. Witnessing the deserved 🌍outpouring of support for 🇺🇦 is amazing. As Yeats put it after the supposedly failed Easter Rising's leaders' executions "A terrible beauty is born." That was the end of the British Empire. poetryfoundation.org/poems/43289/ea…
In other words, this is the ultimate wordcel vs. shaperotator showdown
This is a modern myth in the making. The bravery of the Ukrainians after Putin literally claimed that Lenin invented Ukraine. This war is the crucible they will forge anew national myth from. Poor bastard Russian conscripts are the grist for it.
This!!!! Incredible thread , just incredible - Ty🙏🏽- posted tiny bit about myth, legend, heroes - u have pulled it all together what we have been witnessing - it isn’t kinetic (manufactured ) shock &awe , it is real, unplanned , amazing to see this irl as tragic as the event is
Exactly!!! 👏👏👏💪💪👌👌 well said!
Doesn't this make the threat of Putin unleashing the heavy missiles and flattening Kyiv etc. like he did Grozny, Syria etc. all the more likely?
What the upside there for Putin? This is not a small area like Chechnya that he can then have over to a vassal to rebuild.
Except there is no upside for Putin in any of this, so that is hardly a metric for likelihood, it seems.
He gambled on a far different outcome, which would’ve been glorious domestically for him if it went according to plan. But why gamble in the first place? Simplest explanation is that his domestic position is a lot weaker than it appears.
I think so too. The Russian harvest was very bad last year, too. I don't know if that is a factor.
So then, basically, Putin is toast.
The question is whether he's willing, and able, to take the rest of us with him.
The first time I heard about Snake Island defenders I was sure that Putin lost - Ukrainians received immortal and unbeaten armor - tmyth as you explained, myth which will be alive for many generations in Ukraine - great
HITLER PUTIN MORDERCA MYSI SCIAGAC OBCE WOJSKA HA HA HA ZOSTANIE ROZLICZONY PRZEZ CAŁY ŚWIAT CHINY NIE SA ZA AGRESJA PUTINA I TURCJA !!!!!!!!
Very enjoyable reading. Thank you.
(No comment)
The Russia-Ukraine war so far has had both heroic and horrific episodes.
This is perhaps the strangest of them: the story of how a Russian riot police convoy went to conquer Kyiv on its own.
Hello! Do you have bibliography or papers to share about this concept of "myth"? Thanks~
I do not think you actually understand what is happening here, and what the major players are up to. This is political/war theater for the masses. It sounds like you are getting off on it.
Biden has been the top dog in Ukraine since before the 2014 revolution, including Victoria Nuland.
It is a puppet government that we colonized years ago.
Unfortunately, you words are quite vague. You need to be more specific with actual facts, not speculation
Imagine if the Russian population could wake from their indoctrination and realize they have the power to live free. Use the natural resources & wealth that is stolen by a select few to raise their standard of living to a level they never dreamed of…
I truly hope 🇵🇷 can come to the same realization.
Still a colony, bankrupted, feeling undeserving. Colonialism is a bitch.
Landmax!
Currently, there is little appetite for independence. But I don't think the majority are interested in statehood. Not after all the disappointments and humiliations portrayed by the USA during Hurricane Maria and through the bankruptcy.
This is gorgeous
(No comment)
The "mythological space" where the state is invincible. Hence importance of foreign exposure/defeat of a state, could be Spain. Catalans, w Stockholm Syndrome, take note.
I recall some ppl wondering aloud why Putin would assassinate his enemies in foreign countries using novachuk & polonium 210, 2 methods that pinpointed Putin's culpability. It was Putin's attempt to bolster his mythos - I am so powerful I kill wherever/whoever/whenever (fear me)
Jesus man. Kudos for the amount of work going into this thread.
Yes. Amazing thread. And this current Russian force doesn’t even have a myth. The only one acting on myth is the (short) man in the high castle. Wow. This will fail.
Thank you for taking the time to share these wonderful insights. Glory to the heroes! 🇺🇦
>They were not used to getting arrows in the face.
[insert Mike Tyson quote here]
Uhm, obviously they *didn’t* have kinetic superiority. The guys with arrows did.
ehh didnt Moscow burned in 1571 (due to bad luck or the khanate debatable) but the 1572 raid was repelled
I am NOT for WW3 But being a Vet and a Christ loving man, I think Countries around the world who believe as I do should be standing beside them (Literally) Brings the military Aid Don't Sent It!! The USA and Germany Egged Puttin on every 15 minutes leading into this.
"Everyone thinks they are demigods until they get an arrow to the face." - Mike Tyson
Umm... I'm not sure what you are talking about, but crimean forces were defeated (heavily, ~20k rus vs ~60k crimean forces) in this battle in 1572 - battle of molodi. Moscow was burnt in 1571.
Yes! Russians experience existential dread of Chechens after what the did with russian conscripts in 1995. Everyone other see overveight sardaukaar cosplayers in fucking Prada boots. Yes, unlike russians they might not hesitate to torture and murder ukrainians, but come on.
Note that we don't really know very much about the "Immortals" from Persian sources, the majority of their descriptions being written by Greek authors. So probably take these comments with a grain of salt ;)
Welcome to Encyclopaedia Iranica
The Encyclopaedia Iranica is a comprehensive research tool dedicated to the study of Iranian civilization in the Middle East, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Indian subcontinent
iranicaonline.org
Threader App please unroll
You see that the European jets are going to be in Ukrainian airspace within 50 minutes from now. That Russian convoy that is north of Kyev might not be there for long….
NATO intervention?
Do you have any source?
Dear Kamil i spended a lot of time reading your whole post and in general I enjoyed the read. But yes at 1st Muscovites was defeated by Crimean Khan's however lately Ivan destroyed it during Battle of Molodi. Why Ivan's kung fu became better just only 1 year latter?
they mentioned it before, defeat without destruction led to his force being able to lick their wounds, learn, refocusing on victory
Well yes and no. The 2nd part of article I dont like it. It is based on some esoterics and not facts. If you know Muscovites is a predecessors to modern Russia with capital in Moscow and it became as it is mostly because they was in need to form state as Mongol empire was pushing
And in fact they did it 1st by destroying Mamai , latter Moscovits was able to take Kazan and after they succefuly defeated Crimean Khaganat. By that time the Mongol empire was almost close to non-existant and those victories of Moscovits has nothing to do with esoterics :)
Oprichnicks believed their own "press" to their detriment.
вопрос. нахера так далеко в историю лезть? взял бы к примеру чекистов в 17м году.
(You mean 1571 I think)
Maybe you mean Crimean attack on Moscow in 1571 (ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9A%D1…, oprichniks defeated, Moscow burned)? In 1572 there was the en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of…, in which a larger force of Tatars was defeated by Russian regulars.
Battle of Molodi - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.wikipedia.org
Picking off individual leaders of resistance. Myth of prohibition to resist. Sorry to digress, but rings true in Catalonia re Spain. Independent it's should read this thread on power of discourse.
M sorry but which ethnicity are tuvans?? Are they mongols??
Well.. thanks a lot… i blv my guess was not wrong… he just doesn’t look like russian..
Sure, he looks like a Central Asian horseman.😉
Only the people are real.
Amazing thread! Thank you very much.
For the mythological nature of human institutions see, Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari, Ch 2: "The Tree of Knowledge"; that of money see Ch 10: "The Scent of Money". These things exist only if you and your social context believes that they do.
Quite: The current system of money creation rests on a law transaction (Promissory Note described ⬇️) Radical constructivism regards that as a 2nd order reality construct
How Do Banks Create Money? A Walk-Through of Richard Werner's Papers
In 2014, Prof. Richard Werner provided the first empirical evidence that banks create credit out of thin air... They do this whenever they issue a loan or, m...
youtube.com
Paul Watzlawick also refers to Vahingers "philosophy of the as if" (1911), ie most of the time we behave "as if" something is the case.
(eg humans having free will)
32:04)
Paul Watzlawick - When the solution is the problem (1987)
This is the frenglish translation of a very interesting speech made in 1987 by Paul Watzlawick. The topic is "When the solution is the problem".I'm not fluen...
youtube.com
I have been preaching this for years
Confidence and belief.
Holy shit, who are you?!??
When I saw the "we are here" speech I could feel Ukraine's national story bring refreshed and strengthened. 2014, and all the history and literature before it. I could feel it in my soul. This sounds cheesy... to the enlightened, but it's how things work.
Wow you should publish this
It's highly educational 💡👍
Just gave me free education now
wait are you saying England is not real? bollocks
"Power is a myth". Tell that to all those who have been rounded up, killed, or put in concentration camps by Putin. They chose not to believe it and they were reminded violently that political power, like Mao said, grows out of the barrel of a gun!
You miss the point. Who rounded up and killed in people in all these criminal regimes? The soldiers and guards. Why? They obey orders because of the myth of power.
I see you've read Jacques Ellul (i.e., the discussion of myths). I applaud this analysis and your insights.
Excellent description & comparison. Memetic warfare in action.
Just like Finland in the Winter War.
Finland firmly lost, but inflicted such a cost and prevented Stalin from his objective people remember it as a victory.
Right? 😂😂✨✨ like the whole world is crushing on Zelensky BECAUSE he looks like the identifyable hero in mythological texts. It’s tapping into the collective consciousness in ways that are far more powerful than anyone anticipated. Mainly because Putin’s bad at psychology 😂
Eh, it’s less that though that’s true, and more, the exact way he went about this created a mythological situation where no matter how Putin plays this, the Ukrainians are seen as victims, martyrs, and even heroes. It taps into the best of human nature, and they are who we want
we want to be - heroes and martyrs. Which is why so many people support Ukraine, and like Zelensky so much. That and they’re literally suffering a grave injustice right now. No matter what they’ve done, unless they bomb Russia first, it is extremely immoral and unjust to bomb
Wow ... Amazing. Thanks.
"Those who tell the stories rule society."
-- Plato
1 month
Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Sunday, 27 March 2022 at 12:00 GMT+0000.
I understand what you are trying to say, but when bullets are flying above your head that is kinetic enough to me.
I only wished everyone had this much furrier with the genkcide that’s going on in Yemen.
🙌amazing thread
Well, ok, this is a good read. But you failed to invoke Ukrainian 'myths.' You erroneously say UKr left this mythological space. Sir, Ukr has so many freedom fighter myths, I would need to write all day. Remember Zaporozhian sich; that is in DNA of every Ukr. 1/2
2/2 And then great painter Repin, called Russian, hails from Ukraine. Have a look at the famous painting. It is his face writing the letter to the Sultan
Incredible thread. I don't personally have the expertise to be able to say that, yes, this is all true. But it has the ring of psychological truth—understanding of motivating forces on human behavior. And the tweets about the centrality of "myth" in conflicts is smart.
Thank you so very very much. I learned so much reading this tweet string. It puts a very very different perspective on the Ukrainian situation.
Clausewitz, nicht Wahr?
shades of Tigana here.
Really great thread. I would argue that this conflict is kinetic (in it's true form); and it is that, and the outcome which creates, promotes or destroys (hopefully in Russia's case, in this instance) myths.
Amazing thread....
замечательный тред, невероятно интересно и доходчиво, спасибо ❤️
What do you mean with „kinetic“? Thanks!
(Possibly sensitive)
There must be something about military analysts that makes them all so confidently right or wrong on every issue. This is the exact spot where you became confidently wrong.
I was thinking about it, Putin has tried to build this myth component in to his current strategy, but it’s failed. Russians grow up hearing about the bad fascists that their grandparents fought with and the glory of the Russian people is in this (Победа над фашизмом)
And he’s selling it via his propaganda to the Russian people - “we are liberating Ukraine from fascism”, otherwise people would think that he’s insane going against his own blood/family (as you probably know - the myth of brotherhood between Russia and Ukraine is big)
That’s why the propaganda works so well for the 40+ generation of Russians, they are born in the last decade of the USSR and believe the fascism myth. The 20-30 yo go out to protest and the ones who support the regime has been stripped of their humanity due to the constant abuse.
Putin’s been abusing his people since 2008, the repressions for speaking up were severe from the beginning. Standing up for your rights was a life-ruining event. For you and your family. Another myth of “моя хата с краю» grew out of proportion due to the memory of repressions.
No other unifying idea was introduced in the modern Russia since 1992. Ukraine has the EU idea, a better life of freedom and sovereignty - this is worth fighting for. Russians live with the idea of defending the glory of the past. They have nothing left, so they are demoralized.
This is a great soil for the propaganda seeds he’s been spreading since 2014. And this war will crush the moral even more. The result - the propaganda will keep getting more absurd. Russia’s war with myths is lost long ago and now we can just see it more clear.
They deserve independence.
Mutiny toward and inside the Kremlin!
Putin can pivot away from failure in Ukraine by saying that the West is now at war against Russia. So, let’s say there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine and that leads to some sanctions rollback, he then basically claims it as a win against the West and survives (for now).
I've read your thread till the end. Thank you, I learned a lot. Question remains how Putin will react to a defeat?
Any historic examples of how tyrants react to the humiliation of defeat? Do they retreat, vent their anger internally? Or do they come back with a vengeance?
In this case vengeance could be a tactical nuke ...
twitter.com/McFaul/status/…
The people who know Putin the best -- people I know in Russia -- are worried about his recent nuclear statement. The people who know him the least are saying it's cheap talk.
Putin always has a choice though...
Excellent analysis.
also the fact that many Ukrainians and Russians are related , those countries have too many bonds to risk this.
I'm afraid of a Rotterdam 1940 scenario. Quite some parallels:
Trying to seize & decapitate government through paratroopers, but failed.
Unexpected fierce resistance in key points, leading to unwanted delays.
Painful losses of elite troops.
German & Dutch supposed to be brothers, resistance seen as betrayal.
No key cities captured yet.
Air defences not sufficient, leading to vulnerabilities.
One city leveled to the ground may force the Ukrainian leadership to prevent this from happening to the others...
You like to repeat this, but his leveling of cities have always been condamned
If Russia doesn’t score a convincing win, and the early rounds certainly don’t indicate that they will, then it strikes me as an internal conflict within Putin himself. A battle of his self-preservation (political) skills vs. his megalomania (personality needs). While he knows…
how to accumulate and wield power, I don’t know if he has the political savvy to finesse a situation. Has he ever had to (as he has no political adversaries/competitors)?
He could cause a major bomb to go off in say Moscow with horrendous casualties and then justify crazy action against Ukraine. I’m thinking he might even nuke a city.
save thread
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 37 saves of this thread (ranked #993)
• 139 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #348)
Also everyone has a cellphone with a camera now. It’s much harder to completely destroy a city since people will broadcast the after effects
This cannot be emphasized enough - and we can translate languages - it’s as significant as the broadcasts of the vietnam era , or the footage shown at theatres in WWII
How about Putin's nuclear gesticulations? What's your feeling on this?
(No comment)
Guten Tag, the unroll you asked for: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497993… Have a good day. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is? I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2)...…
threadreaderapp.com
Great, thanks.
Blockades are not easy. Its very expensive, for one. Takes time. Bored stationary troops are vulnerable to ambush and counter-attack. Locals will inevitably break the blockade - finding ways to get in supplies, weapons, ammo, etc.
in 5 hours
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 04:51 GMT+0000.
what do you think of nuclear weapons? Could Putin be unhinged enough to use them? I don't think so but opinions seem to vary.
You know this is really interesting--if Putin putting nuclear forces on alert (via a televised speech) was meant to unite Russia into a Cold War infused patriotism, it might *boost* the myth of Ukraine being easy to win. But if that doesn't work (doubt it will) what's next?
Putin is surrounded by boot-lickers, but dude must know he made a whoopsie. And he can't endure a long battle with the world with all those sanctions. Feels like some marginal way to "safe face" could get him to withdraw troops at this time and save the major military resources..
Amazing thread, btw. Holy shit--so good.
What are the chances of success of Russia just starving out these cities?
How about nuclear weapons?
After all, the Russians do not destroy the infrastructure of others. than military. In Ukraine, power plants, waterworks, and telephone communication are operating normally. I don't understand it. After all, these are strategic goals and Russia is not destroying them.
He actually started doing this 12 hours after you wrote it...
First two only?
Done in Kharkiv (((
This thread is brilliant!
It seems like 🇺🇦 is trying to get the message out that they're treating POW very kindly, as well. Warm tea, letting them call home to mom. It's the sort of message that should be really demotivating, depending on who gets to see it.
You get housing if you are dead ... it's a basement apartment 6ft long with sunflowers growing on top!
"Now if you are dead, you can't get a housing."
Best dead-pan one-liner I've read in a while.
Who's delusional? Are you reading?
Worse. Significant number of conscripts.
Might add, sans the apartment, is the usual recruit
And it works, sadly. Just look at Belarus
Sounds similar to US military
So much this. Even a casual look will tell you that the Russians have always been poorly trained, poorly led and poorly motivated. I love them but they really need to completely change the NCOs. They don’t even do night ops. They’d be crushed by any western army.
source on dis please!
true, the historical context in which the Red Army was born should not be confused with the conditions of the current Russian army.
Good strategy.
Show up numbers.
Nobody messes wothnthe Chinese.
They tell you we 100m foot soldiers.
Many cant carry a gun. The numbers really intimdate
A lot of Russian army are in fact Ukrainians.
The Luchshiy Place To Find A Place™
Dont forget there’re many draftees there
in 9 hours
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 08:08 GMT+0000.
FANTASTIC THREAD
First wave cyber attack
This is description of current state of war, not a prediction of end results, but you use "will fail" at start, which is misleading.
We are all ears ( or eyes it should be)
Damn Russian hackers
Brilliant thread!! Thank you!
10 hours
Got it, @Leo_Proettel! I'll remind you about this on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 09:10 GMT+0000.👍
To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
Bless your sacrifice, your threads are always top notch.
in 6 hours
Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 05:11 GMT+0000.
To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
Damnit. you´re good. appreciate your work.
Really enjoying and learning from your posts here. Thank you for taking the time.
JFC this is the simgle most cogent analysis I’ve seen on this hellsite.
Aces, aces, aces
pro-Russian hackers are conspiring against you and your thread /jk
Tweeting so hard you broke your computer!
My attention span empathises with your laptop battery.
At this point it feels like everyone reading this would have pitched in and had a new laptop at your door in five minutes.
Тримайся!
This essay, and your dedication to it, are legendary. Thank you for this analysis friend - it has been fascinating
How do you think all this :)
aren't all of this saying that the Grozny-like tactics are going to be implemented soon?
Every civilian killed will just radicalize the population more and they have 40+ million people.
No argument here but let us not model these people as fully rational agents.
It'll be against a much tougher opponent than the Chechens were.
I think it is very likely but heavy artillery might get fucked by logistics too
I'm thinking more iskanders
in 10 hours
Got it, @ArthurCamara! I'll remind you about this on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 09:00 GMT+0000.👍
Thanks for the good info
Hence the "training mission" we hear from captured Russians I guess, they would've expected something small, manageable.
in 10 hours
in 10 hours
tomorrow
remind me of this tweet in 76 hours
Aye aye, captain👮♀️! Reminder set for Thursday, 3 March 2022 at 03:07 GMT+0000.
@temindme_ofthis in 2 hours
in 10 hours
in 10 hours
(No comment)
Oooooh man this one is juicy!
tomorrow
in 9 hours
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 08:11 GMT+0000.
in 15 hours
Noted.📝 Your reminder will be on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 14:12 GMT+0000.
(No comment)
in 2 hours
Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 01:15 GMT+0000.
Very good work,
I had reverse idea until reading this,
now I wonder if putin is scared enough to go nuke option?
in 15 hrs
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 16:25 GMT+0000.
To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
#RussianArmy are not picking up their soldiers bodies, this is not the way the soldiers families might want to remember
Small foreign vacation? In Ukraine? It’s winter.
Kamil, TY for thoughtful analysis. Certainly informative. Can I ask what your thoughts are if Putin is unpredictable and with a few screws loose in that paranoid mind, why would he be limited to conventional arms. He allowed use of chem wpns in Syria and has tactical WMD on hand
Putin is like a Hearts of Iron player trying to win cheaply by deceiving de AI and getting straight to the victory points
so what now?
The question is against whom. He could start using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but they are a very blunt tool against a guerilla army. Against NATO? Get out of here, even his own subordinates will shoot him before allowing him to start a nuclear war that destroys Russia
That's what's starting to concern me. A defeat isn't an existential threat for Russia - Ukraine was never going to march on Moscow, obviously - but it may well be fatal for Putin's regime in time. And desperate men do desperate things, if nothing else to avoid appearing "weak."
1. In the end, it's like this:
- Those who care about the grandeur of their country and nation, will do everything to enrich both (ecnomically, cultually etc).
- Those who care about their own grandeur will sacrifice their country and nation to enrich themselves (money, power).
2. And by enriching themselves, they impoverish their own people and their own country.
Russia wont lose dude.
they have already won
Lol what they won the right to if their lucky have a constant rebellion right next to nato territory and the cost of their national reputation and probably thousands of lives
Well, the whole operation has the vibes of a rapidly organised plan B...
Cuidado! Que el tipo está herido;y no aceptará una derrota tan fácilmente!. Ucrania y todos sus vecinos están en peligro por un posible exterminio químico. Fue cómplice de uno en Siria con su colega también Genocida,Bashar al-Ásad
Presidente de la República Árabe de Siria
By the end of 2022, the capital of Russia will be Pyongyang on the Moskva
Putin has already lost the war with Ukraine
These are forever sanctions
in 7 hours
RUSKIE HITLEROWCY !!!!!!!
You have to remember that Ukraine is the historical heartland of Russia - neither Putin nor the Russians would really want it destroyed.
Syria was not a actually a war. But how Syria conflict shaped Russia reaction in Ukraine? For me seems that they tried to frame it like an operation against terrorists..
Russians fought no war in Syria. They simply performed air strikes. They never saw the face of the enemy unlike Americans in Irak.
HITLER PUTIN MUSI PROSIĆ O POMOC OBCE WOJSKA HA HA HA !!!!!!!
Un thread interminabile : pieno di osservazioni e informazioni interessantissime.
#GuerraRussiaUcraina
Avrupa ulkelerı Rus Askerlerıne Vatandaşlık versın, Rus ordusu dagılır..😊
And he has no plan or strategy to get out of the war /end the war.
That is horrible ❗
#PutinsWar #Ukraine #FCKPTN
Espero lo juzguen por crímenes de guerra por sus famosas "Operaciones Especiales", que han masacrados humanos en Chechenia, Siria y hoy en Ucrania. El sujeto es un Genocida.
in 22 hours
Got it, @BethMKnight13! I'll remind you about this on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 20:53 GMT+0000.👍
To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
in 8 hours
Noted.📝 Your reminder will be on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:53 GMT+0000.
in 8 hours
in 8 hours
Aye aye, captain👮♀️! Reminder set for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:54 GMT+0000.
in 8 hours
Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:54 GMT+0000.
in 1 hour
Were you thinking things would be noticably different in an hour?
Aye aye, captain👮♀️! Reminder set for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 02:13 GMT+0000.
Not what I...
Oh well
Ok, hour is up
I figured he was (understandably) going to take a while to finish the thread so I just wanted to come around when the whole thing was done.
In that case smart move.
in 12 hours
in 8 hours
in 7 hours
Yes, boss. Monday, 28 February 2022 at 05:56 GMT+0000. One new reminder, coming right up.
in 43800 hours
Fingers crossed 🤞
Perhaps he should be more worried about a coup in the kremlin.
Defense in depth is the military strategy of letting enemy forces expand in space, which weakens them. Then counter-attack weak points, disrupt their supply chain, envelope isolated enemy troops. Russia is *extremely vulnerable* to this defensive strategy.
in 8 hours
Noted.📝 Your reminder will be on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 07:07 GMT+0000.
To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
HITLER PUTIN !!!!!!!!
Nice thread and I agree that Russia can lose. My fear is that with the imminent defeat Putin can appeal to nuclear resources ☢️
i don't like that plan
Thanks for this tread. Very interesting and informative
Is the coup d'erat the best way to shorten the war by a lot?
Yes, but the coup needs to be in the Kremlin.
your thought pleases the new world order
Not wanting a NWO, just think it best to remove someone who has been there for too long. Being in charge for too long leads to "strange" decisions being taken.
if he has been in office for a long time it means that he is a valid person, your ideas are unfounded
No it's nothing about valid or not, you know little about how authoritative regime worked
Ah you're a Putin poodle.
"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely."
QED
Fiat has also been there for a long time, which makes it a valid currency system. And yet you advocate for crypto.
So which way, western man? Is it 'seniority', or is it 'innovation'?
He’s been in office a long time because he assassinates and jails his opposition.
remind me in 16 hours
Yes, boss. Monday, 28 February 2022 at 17:08 GMT+0000. One new reminder, coming right up.
To cancel this reminder, reply "cancel".
You guyz are really underestimating this guy! Smh
in 8 hours
25 февраля 2022, 19:50
Политика
«Берите власть в свои руки». Путин обратился к украинским военным Путин сравнил украинских неонацистов с террористами
Мария Шустрова
Прослушать новость
Anthett MNM M
РИА НОВОСТИ
There is no alt text for this image, I'm sorry.
Why not telling us it is a book not a thread to start with?
Spells « coup d’état »
What happened to the buildings on the done shot and aftermath?
in 19 hours
in 8 hours
in 12 hours
Aye aye, captain👮♀️! Reminder set for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 11:04 GMT+0000.
That's insane...
Awful risk taking.
Who ever planned this must be a Western mole... or an idiot.
Translation?
269 po 269,7K 11:33
Стрелков Игорь Иванович А теперь о ещё более грустном:
Наступление на «основном восточном фронте» буксует по причине полного ОТСУТСТВИЯ ВТОРОГО ЭШЕЛОНА. Пройденная территория не контролируется, развязки дорог и важные пункты под контроль не ставятся,
гарнизоны и крупные группировки противника фактически игнорируются. При этом тыловые колонны движутся без малейшей охраны по незачищенной территори, как будто это какая-нибудь Рязанская область. Что уже привело к разгрому и даже полному уничтожению нескольких таких колонн. А
противник не дремлет и «медийной выжимает все» из каждой такой «микро-победы». На лицо крупный просчёт, вызванный, вероятно, неправильной оценкой обстановки и последовавшим за этим «шапкозакидательством».
1,2K P 95
There is no alt text for this image, I'm sorry.
💪💪💪💪💪💪👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻🤍🇺🇦🤍
14 hours
excellent read I was just thinking in reality the Russian economy is no bigger then Texas or New York this becomes a major player beginning the opening of business tomorrow!
Great read. Thank you.
en 10 horas
¡De acuerdo! Guardaré el recordatorio para dentro de 10 horas.
Puedes cancelarlo respondiendo a este tweet "borra el recordatorio"
+@RecuerdameBot en 10 horas
Confirmed.✅ I'll remind you on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:50 GMT+0000.
in 8 hours
in 8 hours
Good bye Putin!
Holy shit.
Overall you're mostly right, this war is lost. There's no way to end it "good" for Russia and no one will forget it. Stop fighting, remove the army or burn the world to the ground. I hope Putin haven't lost his mind completely.
May those Russians Rest In Peace. Their blood is on Putin’s hands #WarCriminalPutin
Can Bayraktar float still like a helicopter? If not, is this video captured by a separate drone? Obviously this video is not from an aeroplane type of fast moving aircraft like Bayraktar seems to be.
Bayraktars work in pairs. One lases targets and the other pummels, then they rotate.
That's how you have almost all of them in the air near constantly.
Okay. The laser comes from another Bayraktar. But in what aircraft was the camera that captured this video? Bayraktar minimum speed is ~100km/h? The camera is floating in fixed position in the air->the camera cant be in another Bayraktar?
İt seems to me that it is moving, not stationary. Considering that the bayraktar has sensors that observe the impact of mam-l munitions (with a range of 15 km), İ'd say that this is a tb2 filming from kilometers away.
That’s gonna leave a mark
(No comment)
Pst. Your request is good to go. You can manually download it at
SendMeThisVideo™ | Dayvidsen
http://twitter.com/sendmethisvideo official website
sendmethisvideo.com
We the 🇹🇷 supplied that to 🇺🇦. Because we stand with UKRAINE
How come these don't get obliterated by Russia's S400 and S500?
You didn't mention the role of Air forces: Who has the control of the skies?
Mainly Russians, but not completely, and the Ukrainian AA is still efficient, at least partially.
in 7 hours
Got it, @OdairJLeite! I'll remind you about this on Monday, 28 February 2022 at 05:50 GMT+0000.👍
7 hours??
(No comment)
#RedDawn strikes.
Molotof Kokteyl Fuze gıbı iş yapıyor mubarek..
I feel validated. Made this exact point about light forces on the Ukrainian side blending in and letting the front line units go past, then playing hell with the support columns.
I wonder if you would entertain a response to another thought in this same line. One military aphorism I have learned is that only infantry can truly hold ground. The Russians of course have infantry in their invasion Force, a lot of it. They don't seem to want to act like..
... infantry though. They want to stay in the bmps and tigers, and not venture much more than a few yards away from the roadway. When I was an infantryman we were taught to avoid roads like the plague. Ditches and arroyos and thick stands of trees were our roads.
If the Russian infantry does not fan out into the woods and Fields and side streets of the towns they go through, they're not truly attempting to hold the ground at all. They're ceding it to the Ukrainian army. To me it has echoes of Finland 1939. Vietnam to a lesser extent.
Even TE Lawrence and the Arab uprising in world war I.
Sort of like a Blitzkrieg blowback - with the second attacking echelon (a void) replaced by Ukrainian defenders. Ukraine's local defense forces have a less quantifiable advantage of unequaled local knowledge and personal motivation. Advantages fully quantified in combat 🇺🇦
Yes, boss. Monday, 28 February 2022 at 05:45 GMT+0000. One new reminder, coming right up.
Gotcha, boss! I've set your reminder for Monday, 28 February 2022 at 06:46 GMT+0000.
Amazing and informative thread. Thank you so much for sharing your insight!
*(minor, minor thing, but for future reference from a native English speaker: it's "pandered," not "pondered")
Great Job! 👏👏👏
How serious is the Belarus military?
I can’t tell you how much I appreciate this explanation, thank you for taking the time
2 hours
m.youtube.com/watch?v=_gDmMV… do you reckon this is this an attempt at scaling up an attack with more echelons?
Ukraine Invasion: Massive Russian convoy seen outside Kyiv
A huge three-mile convoy of Russian military equipment has been spotted outside Kyiv.Hundreds of military vehicles ferrying troops, tanks, infantry fighting ...
youtube.com
Wishful thinking.
Russia was only poking around. Now the real army will go in. It is not looking good.
I don't understand how "there is no second echelon" is consistent with "only half of Russia's troops amassed on the border have been deployed into Ukraine" which most sources seemed to be reporting (at least as of very recently)?
The way I understand it is the "second echelon" comes immediately after and reinforcing the first, whereas these deployments have been staggered too greatly to reinforce positions.
Like a tower defense game where the enemies go slowly and one at a time.
They split their forces into 4 parts, also not all troops on the border are combat troops, there are supply and logistics lines as well. Given the losses he took, he doesn’t have the troops needed to take the country or even to take Kiev in an urban warfare
We still don’t know. Its not morning yet. Lets all hope and pray there aren’t any echelons left. I’m not convinced, but do hope you’re right.
Blitzkrieg-lite
This is what I was thinking - get a bunch of bodies inside the country, to be backed up by subsequent groups. Here, you seem to say that isn’t happening. What’s left? Threaten nukes to come away w part of Ukraine?
Lots on Twitter argue that 🇷🇺 sent in weak force to "soften" 🇺🇦 for following well-trained/equipped troops. What is your take on that?
Sounds like a super dumb strategy: You lose the shock effect and allow your enemy to organise and fully switch to war mode. Plus you lower the morale of your army and support at home by the sheer number of casualties...
Makes sense.
"Yльтиматум для русского народа: либо вы уберете Путина, либо я сделаю -24 часа.
Байден"
Also, it seems at least some of the captured soldiers (if those impromptu videos are to be believed) thought the same thing. It doesn't seem they were prepared to actually be fighting beyond skirmishes.
So, eventually we are stating the obvious, than most "observers" have no a clue about Ukraine, and they are not shy to show it. Almost a decade of disinformation.
does anyone have those posts
They have forgotten #maydan .
Like most foreign observers. That's a good point. Most westerners were just as clueless as the Russian army a few days ago
Not running away. With leader Zelensky fighting at the front - gaining world admiration… including Russians .. big win in this psychological war ..
Russia remains restrained to launch fierce attacks to keep Ukraine citizens safe. Never try to regard Russia’s restraint as weakness.
I knew it would be punishing for the Russians when I saw a photo of a grandmother brushing up her skills with an FORT-221
The question was in the beginning (including in my mind), how clean was UA army of RU intelligence moles.
I am glad to see, that pretty clean.
That was very different in 2014 where all lines of communications were so infested
27.02,22 Large Russian military convoy was wiped out in Bucha, Kyiv Oblast, this afternoon. The massive scale of destruction looks like WW3 broke out.
Its funny I have been telling everyone Ukraine can win. Offense like this is real hard.
Very interesting analyses. Hope he pulls back, but we know the honor ego shit will be on the way. Anyway, this part of your text, where he expected UKR to surrender (day 1?) is the only part that I'm considering. Can so well informed dictator really also be so naive?
in 12 hours
So, Russia really took their eye off the ball.
15 hours
Minutemen.
(No comment)
Fascinating read, thank you 🙏🏿
Is that anything like a well-regulated militia?
Hardly new. We proved that in 1775 in Lexington and Concord.
Local Militias important to disrupt supply lines of besiegers
CAN YOU SHARE IT, PLEASE? There's a lot of people who take photos or videos and type in the exact location of armies or soldiers.
Or copy of American militias etc
True. Same immortal myth exists in history of Poland with our bloody uprisings and wars: 1410,1612,1683, 1794,1830,1863,1918,1920,PW1944. In many hearts and minds today.
nice, good luck for Ukrainians
Wow. Somehow I think Ukraine outsmarted Russia here. I'm brought back to Roman Emperor Aurelian, during the crisis of the 3rd century when the Empire was about to collapse, he made every city sustainably self-defending and built walls around them (the precursor to castles!).
Like National Guard in USA
You didn’t mention the fact that the British Army ‘Operation Orbital’ have trained the Ukrainian military for the last 9 years, as has the US and other partners.
Great thread by the way.
and Russians call these "territorial defense" troops "nazis" on their televisions
15 hours
In a seemingly legit video on YouTube, they mentioned that Ukrainian tanks have been upgraded and actually are superior to the Russian tanks.
However, outnumbered of course
thread interessant sur la modernisation de l'armée ukrainienne bien que très optimiste
J’avais vu que Kadyrov disait qu’ils étaient super bien équipés, ça va peut-être un peu ralentir l’inévitable
Surtout que pour l'instant ils ne touchent pas aux civils et on dirait que Poutine se sert de cette première avancée pour expérimenter ses troupes, ils ne combattent pas en BTG (bataillons interarmées) comme le disait Kofman. Ils sont en rodage et les grosses pertes sont logiques
how much does that weigh?
Good information thanks.
en diez horas
¡De acuerdo! Guardaré el recordatorio para dentro de 10 horas.
Puedes cancelarlo respondiendo a este tweet "borra el recordatorio"
+@RecuerdameBot en diez horas
@threasreaderapp unroll
Incredible thread. Thank you.
Dear @kamilkazani ,
why are Bayraktars too late for this war?
He meant the akinci is too late for this
Not develop Already made it and ready to war. Turkey almost deal about sell to "Bayraktar Akıncı " to Ukraine war is stopped deal. It is Unfortunate. Akıncı is real game Changer with weapon capacity.
GET THEM DRONES AND DRONE EXPERTS!
twitter.com/EndTax/status/…
If Ukraine has no plans, no western air support, then at the very least, get them the drone arrays and Western training in secret border positions.
The Drones are highly effective, don't lose pilots, and Russia can't tell who is operating them or where
twitter.com/Zugzwan1343295…
What’s too late? Ukrainians don’t need to hear shit like that right now they’re fighting for their lives and Putin thought he could take Ukraine in 48 hours but they are taking extreme heavy casualties so don’t talk stupid about it being over!
Thought they had 20. At least 1 delivery of 6 also
Ukrainian defense minister says they got new delivery of drones and they are already in action.
Ukraine had 20 TB2 by the start of the conflict. And i think another 6 arrived by cargo ship on the 23/02 in Odessa or by 01/03 on Polish border.
Ukraine Reportedly Has 20 TB-2 Drones. They Might Not Matter In A Wider War With Russia.
We knew Ukraine had Turkish-made drones, each capable of finding and destroying enemy armored vehicles without exposing crews to enemy fire. We didn’t know many of the propeller-driven Bayraktar TB-2s Kiev managed to acquire as a powerful Russian army massed along the border with Ukraine.
forbes.com
Yes, but during Azeri war with Armenia, some drones were directly controlled from Turkey, so they had more.
They should do the same here, nobody knows where the pilot is.
, vejam esta 🧵
This is very thoughtful and well-written.
en 9 horas.
¡De acuerdo! Guardaré el recordatorio para dentro de 9 horas.
Puedes cancelarlo respondiendo a este tweet "borra el recordatorio"
+@RecuerdameBot en 9 horas.
Damn that was a great thread
Write more please
Saw a few improvised vehicle pics from the Donbas region a few years ago. Seems they would mount these pods to just about anything - even civilian trucks.
Why couldn't they do the same with Ukraine? Could Putin order to bomb Kyiv to the ground as they did in Syria or Chechnya?
Because Ukraine has anti-air defence and air forces still working.
Technically, he could, but you don't necessarily do it to the 'lost peril of Russia' that you want to regain.
It would mean tens of thousands civilian deaths in Europe. So i believe that option was definately not on table before the start of this "operation".
But it might be on table now, when Putin becomes more desperate.
you guys should interview Kamil on the podcast!
gigante a thread mas mto boa
Putin thinks Ukraine is Russia.
But he forgot the #1 rule in warfare:
Never invade Russia.
They have 2-3 thousand murderers, not soldiers.
plus Wagner Group mercenaries.
Thank you for the information. It's insightful.
This is from earlier this year.
"Nearly 400,000 Ukrainians who have returned "suffer bias and mistreatment in their daily lives"
Perspective | Ukraine’s forgotten veterans lean on one another to rebuild their lives
Photographer Sandro Maddalena documented the trauma and recovery of Ukrainian veterans as hostilities with Russia continue.
washingtonpost.com
First public save of this thread! 🏆
Readwise users: Like this reply to save kamilkazani's thread to your account without cluttering their replies 📚
Stats:
• 105 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #452)
Ping @THUotila tää ketju on iha mielenkiintoinen.
Kiitos - lueskelin sitä kanssa eilen.
Thank you for retweeting. Very good read.
Informative 🧵
Great read, thanks!
An informative piece!
Very informative thread.
I've rarely read bullshit like this, Putin threatens if someone interferes, humanity will experience a war like never before and experts like you think he thought it's all over after 2 days?Please apply to the secret services, they didn't know all this what you're saying
Een nieuw draadje van KamilKazani. Heel informatief
Video zu dem Thema würde ich auch gerne sehen, falls es einen Link gibt
(No comment)
Why he had this reason? He had and have enough his minions in UA army? Are thay disinformated him in such scale? Or UA contr intelligence was so good? Do you have any idea?
Weird tho cause Putin would have sent spy in Ukraine and he would've known that they've upgraded their military.
hoy a las 18:00
¡Perfecto! Ya guardé el recordatorio para el Lunes 28/Febrero/2022 a las 06:00 PM
Puedes cancelarlo respondiendo a este tweet "borra el recordatorio"
+@RecuerdameBot hoy a las 18:00
Окупанти користуються звичайними аналоговими раціями Baofeng😂
Все, що треба знати про вєлікую армію.
Intelligence acquired since the beginning of the Russian military operation over Ukraine has shown an immense lack of logistic support, making this war one of the most unique in 2022 when it comes to surveillance.
A thread 👇🧵
Hmmm..so whether Starlink is helping the invading Russians or hurting them is a catch 22...
😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂
Is this true ?
>grenades taken from Ukrainian warehouses were 99% dysfunctional (ofc, they were 25+ years old) it's not surprising Ukraine lost to Russia in 2014. It's surprising they could fight at all
I find this odd. E.g. WWI rifle ammo, 5 out of 6 rounds work
Zhuchkovsky says in his book that most didn't work, but he describes some as functioning.
All heavy munitiions (mortars, rpgs, grenades) or just the ones that have electronics in them ?
"insurgents"?
You mean separatists?
wants girkin up to these days?
Nothing, sitting at home at commenting all the stuff over the Internet. On Thursday he posted "I am disappointed nobody asked for my help during this operation".
Retirement’s a bitch.
We call the “vodka specials”
Most Russian equipment we collect follows no standard… each is built slightly poor in a system of the systems that make up the whole weapon systems.
Many systems need to be consumed to make a working weapon… you get “what” you pay for.
Two wrongs do not make a right, do they?
The tankies always include Syria in the list. But the slaughter of Syrian civilians was by Assad and his Russian Allies, and secondarily by the so-called Islamic State.
(Possibly sensitive)
One way to weaken the enemy… good tactics like hey #RussianTerrorists #FuckYou 😂😂😂😂
Great people of Russia, start the movement to topple down Putin. Talk to your police, your military! They are fathers, brothers, uncles too! Stop sending your boys to the warzone!
#DefyPutin
Just wanted to tell you that this is the most compelling thread I have read since the start of the war.
We should rememeber they the war actually started 8 years ago
Check also his thread on Chechnya, very insightful stuff!
I've only started following him the other day, go back his other threads are just as long and in Depth. Genuinely learning more from him about the history of it all than anywhere else online
Hey! I have a bunch of Soviet ammo from Ukraine that I still use. What do you mean “expired”
I'll take the time to sign up to your substack!
Great analysis
Man, you are a genius.Thanks.
well deserved!
Great analysis!
I just hope you’re right
Спасибо за анализ, Камиль. Всегда интересно вас читать.
A very interesting read, thank you
I look forward to the continuation👍
Awesome thread, looking forward to the rest!
The best analysis on this site
Amazing job, respect. We are waiting. 👏
Dzięki Mati za fajną lekturę🤝
So….Nuclear war or not?
This is brilliant insight 👏
nice read!
en 8 horas
¡De acuerdo! Guardaré el recordatorio para el Lunes 28/Febrero/2022 a las 06:00 AM
Si lo deseas, puedes pedirme "borra el recordatorio" respondiendo a este tweet
+@RecuerdameBot en 8 horas
en una hora, a las 23.00. Ahora son las 22.01
Ok, tu hora es las 10:01 de la noche.
Guardaré el recordatorio para el Domingo 27/Febrero/2022 a las 11:00 PM
Si lo deseas, puedes pedirme "borra el recordatorio" respondiendo a este tweet
+@RecuerdameBot en una hora, a las 23.00. Ahora son las 22.01
GREAT, thank you!
Awesome thread. Thank you.
Christ, reply-people, stop with the spelling corrections and grammatical nitpicking. It's a series of tweets, not a research paper, and the content is perfectly digestible.
(No comment)
Hi, Your thread is ready to read. Why Russia will lose this war? Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, rattibha.com/thread/1497993…
Have a good day!
en 10 horas. Son las 22:11
Ok, tu hora es las 10:11 de la noche.
Guardaré el recordatorio para el Lunes 28/Febrero/2022 a las 08:11 AM
Si lo deseas, puedes pedirme "borra el recordatorio" respondiendo a este tweet
+@RecuerdameBot en 10 horas. Son las 22:11
I'm an catalán citizen and i want your back.
Good stuff here!!!
Please unroll @Unrollme
Why aren’t you talking about the nato and their plan against russia
Why aren’t you tzlking about the Ukrainian president and his jewish origin
Why aren’t you talking about using ukraine as puppet and toy against russia
Why you hate your country ? Are you from kazan ? Tatar ?
Of course you won’t answer.
This is fascinating please continue.
Sir I just want to know if or when nuke go boom. Can you dumb it down like I'm 5? (Joking ofc, great thread)
Very interesting. Thx!
Keep it up, great thread!
Very interesting, thank you for posting this thread.
in 8 hours
Excellent thread. Thank you
I'll interrupt my open-mouthed reading to tell you right now that you are BRILLIANT.
Russian historical obsession with maritime power is baffling for a country with the largest land borders in the world. I can’t think of a single major conflict where their navy was an asset. Pacific fleet destroyed by Japan in 1904. Largely useless in WWI and WW2
Good S. Gorshkov almost made it. But yeah, it turned out to be such a drag for russian resources.
aircraft carriers and nuclear subs were the definitive projection of power during the cold war, or as kissinger said " 100000 tons of diplomacy" but you need actual concrete might to backup your projection and "diplomacy"
USSR never had a single operational true aircraft carrier.
oh come on they built like 5, all in the ukraine ssr
Nope. They were all helicopter carriers/cruisers and few if any of them saw any actual action:
List of aircraft carriers of Russia and the Soviet Union - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.m.wikipedia.org
yeah only one was a "true" carrier but still, they were good projection of power. good enough the chinese navy repurchase a few of them
They never projected these anywhere though. They might be useful in the Black or Baltic seas, but what are you gonna do with a few helicopter boats on the other side of the world? Russia’s only main projections are their subs.
Ukrainians distrusted their army in the aftermath of Euromaidan. They thought there could be lots of russian moles, russians knew their doctrine and equipment perfectly, division between russian and ukrainian speakerd, etc. Is the reason they relied so much on militias in Donbas.
(No comment)
So, is the EU evolving now because of Putin?
Putin revive Nato then
History of Poland and the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth is a good example of this. The moment it defeated an enemy, the nobles would push for ending the war. They never finished off any enemy, be it Teutonic Knights, Muscovy, Sweden etc. Price for this leniency was catastrophic
Echoes Law 15 from Laws of Power by Robert Greene...
it's exactly lice vaccination. Putin vaccinated Ukranie in 2014... against himself!
And in Irak, 1st gulf war, USA had the chance to put down Hussein (there were riots). They didn't. Hussein and Irak evolved
The Prussian army surrendered and they lost half their state. Unless Napoloen eradicated the state and virtually exterminated the population, not sure what you mean by "finish them?"
Take the whole state
The end of Sakoku/Meiji Restoration was the progenitor for Imperial Japan and the atomic bombs. Japan could no longer continue the growth of a technologically leapfrogging society and thus required territorial expansion to keep up. This is happening today after Deng opened China.
What do you think, why he hasnt finished UA in 2014/5?
he didn't think he has to. + there are costs to scorched earth victories too
he was also not as confident them to fight the whole world
I love your tweets
Its incredible
You are gigabrain, just discovered ur twitter
Awesome thread. Please tell me you post this on a permanent blog
Sun Tzu said never wound your enemy...
The narrative "Ukraine isn't real, Ukrainians are Russians" also hinders him.
Then what, send in armies in 'full beast mode' killing "Russians" in order to "protect Russians"?
He can't escalate above level of surgical strike & maintain that. Own narrative tied 1 hand behind back.
Perfect.
"Inflicting a painful but not critical defeat on your enemy is risky."
Straight out of Machiavelli!
So far none of it seems to be true. Neither Kiyv nor Kharkiv don't seem to "be about to fall". So far Ru forces have biggest success in the south, where they advanced from Crimea to Dnieper river.
That was from a fake account made by Russians. Kltischeko's official account rebuked this claim. You are not immune to propaganda.
neither of these things are true lol
the comment appears to be false, if you can find it let me know
Multiple reports available , this is from the AFP interview.
ABC news: abcnews.go.com/International/…
Chicago tribune: chicagotribune.com/nation-world/c…
somehow I doubt it, I think its what he likely means by "surrounded"
but thing is, if the city was actually surrounded we'd be hearing it constantly
so far its been pretty silent
Limited warfare for limited objectives was the historic norm in Europe over the several centuries preceding the last one, when total war became the norm, followed by the nuclear stalemate.
I think Putin is basically a remix of a 19th century statesman. Will it work? TBD.
It's something that is bugging me. European powers seem to be unable to escape the total war/peace dichotomy, and are trying to fuel the conflict Absurdly. Why not keeping it as a local conflict, with acceptable loses and a temporary settlement?
Catherine the Great had a good saying about Russian borders.
And it's prudent to bog them down in Ukraine. Time is not on Russias side.
Putin also kept a low-level war going in Donbas for 7 years through his proxies. In theory this should have kept bleeding UKR, but it also kept the Russian threat alive in their minds & to emphasize anti-Russian weapons, tactics, etc. Also gave them tons of experience in war.
Oops, sorry, I see you continued the thread and get into that in detail.
Awww... I thought he was just going to take a couple of Eastern regions and Crimea. This is even more hurtful because it's winter and room temperature is especially low.
What do you mean no Russian regulars ?
Debaltsevo was in 2015, and it was not anything you can call "easy" or destroyed.
Amazingly stupis thinking.
Ukraine has a veteran military force after 8 years of war with Russian ocuparion in Donbas region
so in essence - once again - a strategic fail induced by planning to fight a last war.
NO UKRAINE IS STRONG!!!
Ukrainian forces were not destroyed in Debaltsevo.
Very interesting read! Why did Putin not do the full invasion in 2014? Why did he stop with eastern Ukraine and Crimea? Like why taking over all of Ukraine today and not eight years ago?
Flynn
Ummm idk about that.
And it will take anywhere between 1-2 million troops to occupy and pacify Ukraine if they go all the way to Lviv. And that's all the active, properly trained army that Russia has. And you can bet on things like IEDs.
He created more problems than he solved with this.
It seems also possible that he doesn’t want to destroy the infrastructure and doesn’t mind losing troops doing everything slowly and methodically. Hence he’s sending in mostly young shortly trained soldiers and his more outdated tanks and equipment. Minor losses in his mind.
Brave man
He was expecting to repeat Czechoslovakia 1968
How?
Long Covid.
That's a Lot of wishfull thinking.
Is this a #publipost ?
Plus from what I'm seeing it wasn't completely explained to the 1st group exactly what they were doing? Most of the constricted thought they were on a training mission not attacking Ukraine.
Wasn't he telling his soldiers, "you will be greeted as liberators" ??
Zero resistance…
Christ, he looks dead in this picture! 🤣🤣
Please ask the brave Ukrainians standing in front of armored vehicles risking their lives, to instead, just get a knife and poke the tires so the vehicles can't move. Easier than getting killed. #IStandwithUkraine
Russia-Ukraine conflict: Singing protesters throw themselves in front of Russian armored convoy in Melitopol | Watch News Videos Online
Watch Russia-Ukraine conflict: Singing protesters throw themselves in front of Russian armored convoy in Melitopol Video Online, on GlobalNews.ca
globalnews.ca
The Baltic countries feared being retaken. Russia could have signed a treaty guaranteeing they wouldn't, but they didn't. They did sign one guaranteeing Ukraine's borders, but you see what Russian agreements are worth. If Russia stops being a threat, then there is no Nato.
Yes, and I fear for this.
he's overplayed his hand this time. mother russia will suffer deeply.
(No comment)
cartoonish and immature take. syria was staged to become libya 2.0 (anarchic arab spring disaster) and russia would lose an ally on the mediterranean. russia intervened to prevent this, not just randomly to shore up putin's image.
please
Every dead Ukrainian Nazi is a tribute to all their victims! DONBAS! Russia was negotiating, otherwise it would be a war in the style of Yankees 🇺🇸 and NATO, scorched earth! in the style of Iraq, Libya, Vietnam, Syria, Yugoslavia, Yemen and dobde ran like chickens Afghanistan!
the logic of "skin in the game"
Syria also defending an incumbent government that kept paying civil servants and such.
Камиль, брат, было бы классно в черновике писать все и потом одним трэдом запостить, а то как сериал, ждёшь новый пост)
He likes having others do the fighting for him too
You managed to count three countires. Now count all countries devastated by USA.
Yeah he blamed Russia for US destruction in Syria. It tells you all you need to know
What are you talking about? Syria destroyed Aleppo.
Why would he need to talk about US in a thread specifically about Russia? Would you ask to talk about Russia in a thread about Iraq war and how US military was doing historically, this is such a dumb take
HITLER PUTIN !!!!!!!!
The world should have reacted to Syria then. 😶
Chechnya is not a country.
Yes, I am so ashamed to say I was kind of duped by the antiterrorist discourse on Syria.
Every dead Ukrainian Nazi is a tribute to all their victims! DONBAS! Russia was negotiating, otherwise it would be a war in the style of Yankees 🇺🇸 and NATO, scorched earth! in the style of Iraq, Libya, Vietnam, Syria, Yugoslavia, Yemen and dobde ran like chickens Afghanistan!
Becoming increasingly obvious Russian Offensive forces are poorly equipped poorly trained and largely ineffective.
A paper tiger.
Dangerous, considering Putin is out of touch seemingly irrational and about to experience failure on a global scale.
So almost 10% of Chechnya inhabitants are military? That doesn't sound like a healthy economy.
Brilliant perspective!
I thought Russia supported Assad in Syria, not the rebels....🤔
At the time Russia committed its forces to Syria, the insurgents had beaten the pants off the Syrian regime and the Iranians, as well as the Iraqi military. The outcome was far from certain.
When and how Putin initiated war in Syria ? What in the hell are you talking about ?
When and how was this claimed?
How can you say putin initiated the Second Chechen War when a) Yeltsin was still president and b) chechen warlords got into Dagestan? At the very least it differs a lot from what he's done in Ukraine
Putin was in security services then, he staged ''terroract'' to get casus belli
Thank you for elaborating. let me add one-two point for 🇷🇺
1. air sovereignty
2. will to war of attrition (does it?).
and one for 🇺🇦
1. international weaponssupport, rising each day. rumors also mentioning aircrafts
EU Member Countries in Talks to Supply Ukraine With Jet Fighters
BRUSSELS—Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has asked the European Union for jet fighters, and some EU countries plan to supply them, EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday. A person familiar with the talks later said that discussions are still continuing. The person said any plane
wsj.com
Also to boost oil prices, essential for the obsolete economy.
grab this
But Putin already called Ukraine a special operation. And from the formation, it is exactly that.
It's Western media that is calling it an invasion.
You're confusing yourself.
His point is that in order to win, he should have launched a full-scale war from day one, not a "special operation."
What he's missing is half of Ukraine already supports Russia.
This isn't like a completely foreign intervention, Ukraine is a deeply divided country with pro Russians to the east and pro European to the west
The main army is already at the border.Nuclear forces on alert too.
That major deployment will depend on how the west plays it's hand.
No, half of Ukraine does not support Russia. Take that garbage someplace else.
It does.
Ukraine is better off being neutral or split in half ...any other solution that makes it either pro Russia or Europe completely will cause chaos.
People were divided in Finland too before WWII. But then came Soviets trying to invade and kill us. This united Finnish people and we fought together for our freedom.
Long live Ukraine!
You’re wrong, just a fraction is Pro Russian and even a part of that doesn’t want parts of the Ukraine to become Russia.
I don't think even Russia wants to conquer Ukraine.
If that was the case, they would've deployed a bigger force
So what are they doing? I think you make a mistake as it’s not Russia (the people) to fight, but 1 isolated delusional psychopath (Putin) to fulfill what he dreams about. Basically he’s doing the same thing Hitler once did.
Not any more.
People just lost their ethnicity over two days?
Nice try
If half of Ukraine *really* supported Russia you'd think it would be over by now, no? Also you'd think the separatists would have had more than the <10% they had at the start of this.
They want control.
That's why it's taking long
Ukraine using guerilla tactics
Oh yes, those famous guerilla tactics, of continuing to hold nearly all the cities that are being attacked.
They're very effective strategies in urban warfare
Though it may result to a civil war of sorts
Russian propaganda has been trying to convince us that a civil war has been going on since 2014, so I don't really know what you're trying to suggest here.
It was in Eastern Ukraine.
What do you call Ukrainians fighting amongst themselves?
Unlikely is what I call it. They're pretty much unified at this point. Any division set aside to repel invading force.
If they were, the war would've ended day one
And Ukraine govt wouldn't need foreign fighters to come help them with a small russian incursion..The truth is, Russian forces are moving freely in eastern Ukraine. Govt forces there relying on guerillas tactics
Of course they are moving freely in Eastern Ukraine, because they have controlled it for 7 years or more.
At least you accept facts now. They have been controlling it through Russian speaking Ukrainians.
Throwing insults won't get you anywhere.
Calm down.
So we're talking about Russian speaking Vs russian supporting now? I thought you said more than half of Ukraine. Russian speakers only about a fifth. Come on.This is an embarrassing military invasion that has gone very wrong.
30% consider Russia their native language in Ukraine.
20% consider both Russian and Ukrainian.
This is not an invasion. Only western propaganda is calling it that. It's just a millitary operation...nothing as big as it's made to be..
The US and EU really want this conflict to spiral out of control.
That's the plan.
It's good to hear that Ukraine and Russia have started talks.
Literally nobody wants a conflict to spiral out if control. Absolutely NOBODY thinks it's in their interests, unless they're a 5'7" bald septuagenarian with a small dick complex who's never quite been able to get over 1989.
I think the EU and US do want it to spiral. Just check their escalations.
Yes yes, because of course it was definitely *THEY* who threatened to nuke the rest of the planet twice so far in all of this. Definitely the US and EU who are escalating, not uncle Vlad.
Sanctioning the a Russian central bank is an act of war.
Not even Hitler's central bank was sanctioned.
That was a step too far and I fear the consequences of it will be with us for years
Invading a sovereign nation is an act of war! Swings and roundabouts, sunshine.
Come back and tell us the consequences Tony Blair suffered for invading Iraq on false pretence.
Stop the hypocrisy
He's a pariah, and nobody takes anything he says seriously here any more.
So that's all?
A whole country destroyed and that's all he gets from the supposed defenders of human rights?
Relax mate.
Your hypocrisy stinks to the high heavens
Russia has legitimate security concerns in preventing Ukraine from joining NATO
Until he started waving his small dick about, literally nobody in NATO had devoted an ounce of brainpower to threatening Russia for decades. Now he's got every former Soviet state and a couple of European hold-outs on the fast track to joining it. So GG Uncle Vlad, GG.
If you care about war crimes, start dealing with Tony Blair first to prove to us you're genuine.
Negotiations were active when Putin decided to invade. Putin wants this war and this is clear. He lied about it being a military exercise on his side of the border. Two days later he went over the border and shot at the guards.
Americans refused to discuss Putin's proposals.
Proposals? He demanded and there were no options. He wants around 14 countries to be kicked out of NATO. That is not how you negotiate. You give a little and take a little, but you cant demand anyone to give up their right to freedom.
Because his proposals were for America to meddle in a sovereign state's affairs (after decades of complaining about exactly that).
So, where's the hypocrisy again?
The US has its own core strategic interests too.
They're South China sea, Persian gulf and western Europe. This is understandable for geopolitical issues
It's not rocket science that Russia has their own as well
Reason!
No, specifically, Putin wanted US to tell sovereign states what to do with their foreign policy, which is literally what he's been railing against for decades. Address the point.
You really think NATO is a democratic force?
Really?😂
The US has the final say on what it does, it's obvious.
Putin was right to demand such from the US
It may well have the political say on decision making, but Putin is demanding that the US come out and say they shouldn't apply, which is an entirely different thing, as you well know.
Ofcourse he's not demanding they say anything in public. It's just a change of policy direction
Honestly why would anyone want to turn down a country that wants to protect itself from this kind of Russian aggression? That's exactly why other eastern European countries are now more seriously considering joining. Russia's belligerence is DRIVING these countries into NATO.
Ukraine made over a decade ago
It has continued to do so since
If Ukraine joins NATO it's open war
Familiarise yourself with the Bucharest declaration of 2008
There are already tanks on the fucking streets of Ukraine, man, what bit of this do you not get
Haha, keep spinning on that comfy office chair in St Pete, better hope he doesn't get angry and conscript you.
Hahaha...good one!
Many people don't want war though.
As proven by all the demos Putin's police keep arresting people at.
Demos happen all the time in civilised states.
I remember the UK decision to join the war party in Iraq was also met by huge protests in London...not that it mattered anyway.
Precisely 0% of whom (to at least three decimal places) got arrested for doing so, which is kind of the civilised state bit. Remind me how that's going under Bald Napoleon? Civilised state? Lols
When you start throwing insults, people stop taking you seriously.
End of thread
Oh no, so those other two replies you've posted subsequently to this were posted by whom?
We are discussing geopolitical issues.
Analyse ...don't lose control to start making this discussion about insulting people.
Chill
You appear confused, was that the end of the thread or are you still going? Are you paid by the tweet?
Am amazed by your hypocrisy and lack of objectivity
And no, am not paid ..am a policy analyst.
Wow, so people pay you for your *opinions*?
I must be in the wrong business, I have to actually know what I'm doing to get paid.
Trying to discredit me through lies won't stop me from educating you on geopolitical issues
Russia doesn't want NATO on its borders
That's the bottomline
I'm not disputing that Putin doesn't want NATO on his border. Of course he doesn't. Why tho? NATO only ever existed to deter Soviet/Russian aggression. So unless you want to be aggressive to your sovereign neighbours why should you care whether they choose to be members or not?
You need to do some reading on geopolitical spheres of influence. This is not a moral issue.
It's a question of national security
NATO expansion is a deep cause of this Ukrainian crisis.ukriane is a core strategic interest for Russia.
No, sorry.
Geopolitical spheres of influence are earned, not owed to you as a right. Ukraine is a sovereign country. Russia doesn't get to invade it because it makes decisions Russia isn't happy with. That's NOT HOW THIS WORKS.
Takes like this are why I insult your competence.
Earned?😂
Are you this naive?
The liberal ideology of negotiations at the UN failed when certain countries got vetoes
The realist approach is use of force...that's what is happening
International relations are not an issue of morals but interests
Russia is not Iran or Iraq...it has capabilities.
Escalating this issue is not good for anyone.
Much less the EU.
their economies are not only tied to the hip with Russia but risks of open war will completely paralyse them as well.
It has "capabilities"?
Right, so give it what it wants because it has nukes and a leader with a historic chip on his shoulder and a small dick complex.
Remind me how the world is dealing with North Korea, again?
You seem obsessed with mentioning the male organ every opportunity you get
No need to broadcast your preferences to the world.
Stick to the issues
The issue is Putin behaving like he has something to prove. It's literally as simple as that.
So - are you admitting that this is a use of force against Ukraine because Ukraine isn't doing what Russia wants, or are we still pretending this is about protecting some Russian speakers in the east who were allegedly being genocided right under the nose of 180k Russian troops..
There's deep causes to this conflict i.e. NATO expansion and precipitating causes like Ukraine massacre of pro russian people in eastern Europe
Is it too much info for you to grasp?
I can make it more palatable in small doses
"Massacre of pro Russian people"
Hah bullshit. So you're saying the only way Russia's so-called overwhelming force got anywhere in five days is because Ukrainians were fighting each other? Does the nurse know you're out and about without your meds?
I am yet to see any overwhelming force Russia has deployed...looks like a small force.
If you have evidence post it here we see.
Maybe monitor the flights repatriating the Russian coffins, idk. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Any link to a credible source?
Literally the entire point of two or three weeks of military exercises with Belarus on the border was all meant to display this overwhelming force. Don't ask me why you went in with a third of it.
Millitary exercises have been conducted by both sides over the last two months.
Nothing new there.
lol you compare Rus army to Ukr army
Where is your logic?
No, the “scouts” sent ahead before and after Crimea support Russia. Who conducted the polling? A Ukrainian pollster currently employing many of those scouts. They knew who to poll to get the results they wanted.
It is an invasion but a not so good planned one.
Wow. Has anyone thought why West makes a monster out of Russia each time? It's narrative, Russia is evil empire, its leaders are smugglers and brutal killers while we are saints
This attitude/insults made Germany start WW2, now Saintly countries US/UK must brace for a new one
Shogyu may need to move on after this.
He will get a new president, hopefully.
He might be made the scapegoat.
save thread
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 55 saves of this thread (ranked #555)
• 157 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #308)
Didn’t Syria also have strong opposition funding and support, so they did have a chance to win or at least weaken Russian forces?
I learned more in this thread about the Russian military and the current Ukraine invasion than all of my history classes and current reading and research combined. Many thanks 🙏!
To much taljing, but not that much thinking. I had never read anything more estupid than all this crap. Yo dont even know how to invent correctly
Is him taking over Chernobyl gonna be a last stand kind of thing?
as a result the situation on the map russian army reaches the target. especially the Black Sea coast.
Interesting thread.
By reducing the situation in Syria as you do you reveal all your bias and lack of geopolitical and strategic thinking. Poor propaganda thread.
Камил ,это занимательно ,но пробиркой с вещдоками ты потрясти не сможешь.аргументы без фактов.
People die in those positions all the time. Fall out of windows, etc. Lots of risk and accountability.
Where can I read more about this? Is there a book on it?
Why are you hinting Putin was responsible for the apartment bombings instead of saying it clearly?
Русские солдаты!
Победить диктатуру Путина с оружием в руках! !!
ロシアの兵士諸君！
君たちの手にした武器でプーチンの独裁政権を打ち倒せ！！
Russian soldiers!
Defeat Putin's dictatorship with the weapons in your hands! !!
#StandWithUkriane
#ОстатьсяCУкраиной
when are you guys banning and sanctioning americans for murdering afganistand and yemen citizens?
when are you guys reporting the 10 000 deaths of ukranian civilizans since 2014???
i will be waiting for it
russianwarchatter.info has Russian military radio communications
I made this site last night to track their communications. Please forward to journalists or people tracking this event
Just dudes being dudes (until they all get assassinated).
Grandpa Hasan sitting on the boat *was* assassinated shortly after, he was shot in the head with a sniper rifle
Oh, come on, that's just unfair.
Anyone who has worked in special operations/intelligence/law enforcement has dealt with people of whom, if you videoed their lives, you'd see far uglier aspects.
well I agree with your thread but I see absolutely nothing wrong with this party. just dude living in the moment
He can sing! Pretty fun guy if you ask me
"Osobennosti natsionalnoy rybalki" in real life.
This looks like a meme that belongs on @ lookatthatRussian’s IG.
I don’t recall this Chris Farley bit
Oh. Ok, I get it. It looks like rural Michigan guys.
What did I just watch?!
Like a Russian Tenacious D.
He's got a decent voice.
Then resume: Putin is losing the war?
I’ve seen too many people like him in my life 😂
good writing
Are those beers bottles Heineken?
Hence his toleration of Russian mafia.
Nice. He rails at the West for stealing Russia blind, and he was in the thick of it.
Just had a realization someone married this man.
Это не дед Хасан на фото (хотя у Путина и правда очень плотные связи с мафией)
Rockers management
Thought that dude in white was Jay Leno for a second 😅
It is not Grandpa Hassan
In this video (2012) you see the ex-KGB student (1991-93) and ex-general consul of ukranian Embassy in US (2001-03) Valentyn Nalyvaichenko (recruited СІА) with far-right leader Yarosh, in non-gov military camp, preparding ppl for coup d'état (2014) that resulted in war in Ukraine
I would add to the list of Putin’s crimes that scarlet jacket he’s wearing. It’s an affront to all decency
Frankly a lot this seems like a cope, Russians reached Kiev in a day and advancing on all fronts
And the name of the war is meaningless, Americans call their wars all sorts of different terms other than "war"
Like, Russian on the gates of Kiev but you post about their aircraft
carrier, its not relevant at all here
You want every single example in past 100 years?
Its happened a lot
So your take is this invasion is going well for Putin? Interesting.
you didn't get the conclusion of the thread at all, did you? Vova Huilo may take Ukraine, but he won't be able to retain it and the mythos will live and defeat Russia sooner or later. It will be a bomb that will denotate Russia even if decades after conquest.
States have been destroyed and forgotten about in the past, it'll happen again
Where's the Golden Horde? Where's Novgorod Republic?
And yet Ukraine is still there and kicking after a thousand years - the myth is alive and will be alive. Russia will fall apart sooner into mordva, Tatar, Siberia, Caucasus before Ukraine disappears.
But for now, Russian soyboys and myth-wrapped Chechens (just bearded goatfuckers) are laid to fertilize Ukrainian soil just as mere mortals. A lesson in that!
They don't, after 4 days of bloody battles they the only serious defense line at Kherson.
They would have to repeat attacking through water barriers in mid-steppe many times until they reach Odessa from it's most defended side - narrow gap between lake and sea.
There’s no such a city in Ukraine.
Its called Kiev for decades and will be soon again,cope
Аа так ти русня. Заберіть своїх трупаків з наших вулиць, а то проїхать не можна вже
Go find a book published in America in any year before 2020, it'll be spelled "Kiev"
Arent the Russians in your capital? Why are you on twitter arguing this? You should a part of the volksturm to defend ukraine
Consider that troops in Kyiv are from Belarus. They got there from border not far away from Kyiv
They advanced almost 300km in one day, through bad terrain too
Have you heard of any modern army that did that?
And so what, shouldnt Kiev be heavily defended on all directions?
Sehr gute übergeordnete Erklärung (Thread) warum #Russland aktuell so schlecht militärisch in der #Ukraine voranschreitet. @Sicherheitspod @cschmiester @CarloMasala1
Great thread. FYI it's pandering with an a.
So, what do you expect could happen now? Which kind of end of this war do you think will be possible?
Putin is going straight to hell.
The bloke wants a return to the soviet days, praising lenin and stalin as heroes. He's ordered a full scale invasion of a sovereign country. He wants war, he's losing. He will be defeated. He won't be alive this time next year. The scum bag will be killed. Ukraine will win.
What was Chechnya then?
Putin made a big faillure thinking the Ukraine ppl would welcome the Russian forces hero, an opposite reaction followed: the Ukraine ppl "welcome" the Russian forces with bullits and Molotovcocktails.
Putin digs his own grave: he's isolated in this world now
This is the most layperson friendly piece I have read in a very long time. Thank you!
Thank you, it helps me a little bit keep calm inside this war now.
Fantastic thread 👏👏
I found the thread that talks a bit about putin before presidency. It’s a large thread but i think pre-president starts about here.
Wow amazing thank you I'll read through it
No problem! It’s a good one
Same Roman law said people of the enemy who were captured would become slaves instead of losing their lives.
In ancient times ain't bad right?
Roman slave law was more equitable than US slave law.
I dont know, so I dont agree, not deny.
Thank you so much for this history lesson!
It has bugged me all my life why we stopped calling war by it's true name.
What books/articles can I read on this enemy-criminal distinction in Roman Law? Seems very interesting.
Spain currntly applying "law of the enemy" to dissident Catalans. Look up "ley del enemigo" or "llei de l'enemic", there's lots of Spanish discussion re. use of courts to create jurisdiction against internal threat to regime. Clever and lethal.
Saved!
FYI, if you see a "@readwiseio save..." already, you can like it to save this thread to your Readwise without cluttering kamilkazani's replies 📚
Stats:
• 54 saves of this thread (ranked #574)
• 156 total saves of kamilkazani's threads (ranked #310)
His KGB legacy plays a huge role here. Clandestine mindset
Accurate description of an authoritarian instinct for seeking legitimacy 👍!
Very right. And doing so they facilitate total war, in the Hoppe sense.
Very deep line of thought, you are smart 👍🏻
Ouch. Spain criminalises Catalan threat to territorial integrity though peaceful and w majority parliamentary support. Up to 4 thousand Catalans processed w "law of the enemy", pure geographical repression. Small confirmation but reveals tht Spain is working with "friends".
when are you guys banning and sanctioning americans for murdering afganistand and yemen citizens?
when are you guys reporting the 10 000 deaths of ukranian civilizans since 2014???
i will be waiting for it
Brits take note.
Even before the 1940s!
"Wehrmacht" means "defense force".
Channeling a little George Carlin there.
If Putin wants to denazify, he should just order his own arrest.
youtube.com/watch?v=IavCRL… - Ukranianian nazis, hitting pro-russian citizens that falling from the burning building 00:05 Odessa city 2014 #Nazis #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #UkraineRussiaWar
Одесса Правый сектор добивает бегущих из горящего Дома профсоюзов людей
Одесса Правый сектор добивает бегущих из горящего Дома профсоюзов людей
youtube.com
youtube.com/watch?v=IavCRL… - Ukranian nazis, hitting pro-russian citizens that falling from the burning building 00:05 Odessa city 2014 #Nazis #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #UkraineRussiaWar
Одесса Правый сектор добивает бегущих из горящего Дома профсоюзов людей
Одесса Правый сектор добивает бегущих из горящего Дома профсоюзов людей
youtube.com
"Drug-addicted nazis" (dixit #Putin)... 🥳
save tweet
First public save of this tweet! 🏆
Readwise users: Like this reply to save kamilkazani's tweet to your account without cluttering their replies 📚
Stats:
• 56 total saves of kamilkazani's tweets (ranked #1137)
There really are Ukrainian Nazis and the central government is tolerating it.
recordé lo que dijiste de que ahora se enfocan en la defensa
UKRAINE TODAY: Western Silence as 20,000 Neo-Nazis March in Kiev
Kiev's Torch Rallies Resemble Berlin's Waffen SS Parades in Pre-War Nazi Germany
#Ukraine #Russia #UkraineRussia
UKRAINE TODAY: Western Silence as 20,000 Neo-Nazis March in Kiev
Kiev's Torch Rallies Resemble Berlin's Waffen SS Parades in Pre-War Nazi GermanySubscribe to Vesti News https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa8MaD6gQscto_Nq1i49...
youtube.com
Is there a good source on this in political/military history/theory?
In dutch was goinig to war euphemistically called 'politionele actie', referring to the police when The Netherlands tried, after WO2, to save their colony, now called, Indonesia.
Great dread!
Police actions, interventions, no fly zones...
😡оккупант не поставит на колени наше дружное гейско-европейскоое сообщество!!! Прикроем дупы друг у друга, друзья!!!
То есть получается, что руководство РФ сами верят в свою пропаганду?
Seems the "We will be greeted as liberators" level stuff.
Russians expected an Anschluss.
in 2014, they might have gotten it,
In 2014 Ukrainian equipment was awful. Almost 100% vehicle and ammunition were 25+ year old Soviet stocks. Moreover, most of it just expired. Like vehicles existed on paper but were never checked or used since 1991. Their radiators, accumulators all rotten and unrepairable
I'd say it's usual problem with any authoritarian/dictatorship government.
Blitzkrieg ist ein englisches Wort????
It is now
Ever since World War 2.
been since around 1976
This is fascinating. Do major powers like the US and China have updated plans of offensive war? I'm surprised that names mean this much. How did the Russians not have a detailed conquest plan? Didn't someone order plans to conquer any given territory the politicos decided to?
US is known to be war loving, but the US has never actually conquered a country for them to keep. (1812.. maybe.)
Chinas plan is not to conquer (except for taiwan which they have always disputed) but to take over economical. Plz watch this video for that:
Trump's Biggest Failure
Well... this took longer than expected.I am sorry you had to wait so long for me to finish this video, I had some reading to do, then write the video, record...
youtube.com
Sorry dude the US was conquered by definition and is occupied by illegals. But that’s just century old history
please read better...
i said the usa never conquered a country to keep. ;)
i did not say the usa was never conquered...
But the US did do the annexation of the Republic of Texas. So that counts. Which led to the Mexican American war in 1845. After the victory they optained the northern half of Texas now also known as California.
sure sure, i dont know the exact history of the country. but that is 180 years ago. if we take a look at the last 100 year.. do you have another example?
A bit over 100 years, but Cuba, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines in 1898. :)
did they attack them with the intention to keep? i know about the philipines that they issued a self government in 1902 after the conflic ended.
Come on they did nothing more to add. European countries did it. Just how It was. Middle eastern countries did it asian countries did it. It the history of mankind
the world changes. morals changes, politics changes. You don't want to go too far back in history or else we can say it is oke to stone your daughter to death because she doesn't marry her rapist. (according to the bible)
Well, considering the Philippines needed another war to get their independence from USA, that the 'independence' Cuba got in 1902 still granted priviledges to USA, that Puerto Rico is still not a full state, and Guam's citizens don't have full voting rights... I'd say yes.
i know too little about those specific wars. So, i guess so... i was more looking at the time after ww2. when usa found out that helping other countries helps them more then taking over because they can sell their products on those new markets without the cost of running them
Besides the Vietnam war. That was a mistake. But yea they didn’t take over other countries in that period, you are right. But in general the entire history of country counts and defines the nation. In becoming good or evil
I would argue that. as cultures and morals change so does the personality of those countries. you can't still be pissed about stuff that happened generations ago. the dutch are not slavetraders, the mongols are not genocidal rapists and the germans are not nazis.
Don't feel bad about not knowing, I got most of this because I'm from Spain, so it was literally part of my History curriculum in highschool 😅
I don't =) i rather admit i don't know something then try to argue and win on false claims just to make myself look and feel good. I enjoy learning these kinda fun-facts from random conversations like this so, thank you =)
Don’t worry aslong we try to communicate civilised all is fine. Hope my responds wheren’t (man how you spell this?) to offensive though. 🖖🏾
I believe the US is at modernizing at least some of their forces. The marines have gotten rid of their tanks. They have no lace on the modern battlefield
But now they in war. And more and more troops would be mobilized.
A brilliantly presented thought.
You could argue that the only time the Germans tried an authentic “Blitzkrieg” where a limited war in economic terms was with Barbarossa. Different scale of course but similar mix of optimism bias, ideology and strategic incoherence
Factually, blitzkrieg the s a German strategy. Russians are slow starters, accelerate at the end. That's how they play chess as well
You might be right. This was a post by #sputniknews that was fast unpublished. They thought they would get #Kyiv in one day
Наступление России и нового мира
Новый мир рождается на наших глазах. Военная операция России на Украине открыла новую эпоху — причем сразу в трех измерениях.
web.archive.org
I respectfully disagree. I think Russia planned a blitzkrieg, but they have no concept of modern anti-tank weapons like the NLAW and Javelin. I spent 20 years as an anti-armor infantryman. Killing a tank is easier than you think:
How do you kill a tank?
It's actually not that hard to kill a modern tank. Tanks have strong armor at the front, weaker armor on the sides and very weak armor on the top and rear.A...
youtube.com
Russia has some of the most sophisticated and prolific ATGMs on the market - pretty sure they’re familiar with the idea.
Respectfully, the Kornet is not a Javelin or MLAW. If they have man portable, fire and forget capability with top attack please tell me what that system is. I think they “knew” about the Javelin but didn’t know how much of a game-changer it would be.
It seems like a bizzarre claim that a modern army wouldn't know about modern arms.
There is “knowing” about these weapons and understanding how they fundamentally change the nature of warfare. If you have alternate explanation, I will make a video on it and credit you if you can convince me.
Because Russia is led by an ex-KGB man. And they did special ops, not wars.
i would imagine it's probably impossible to stage any force of that size anywhere without being detected
It’s also possible they thought the Ukrainian people would be more subdued and ok with the invasion, in short time, if they didn’t make life miserable by taking out more life necessities and not limiting collateral damage.
#EvilRussia planed a terrorist attack but the #RussianTerrorists thought that the Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms. Keep in mind the leader of the Separatists in Donbas is a Russia national.
Nonsense, you can call it whatever, but breaking the border of the neighboring country is a WAR
EN
таСС
23 ФЕВ, 21:49 Обновлено 23:47
Путин объявил о начале военной операции на Украине
Президент России заявил, что Москва будет стремиться к "демилитаризации и денацификации" Украины, а также призвал украинских военных сложить оружие
f
ж
ок
웃
There is no alt text for this image, I'm sorry.
Very informative and interesting. So basically the Russian assumed that the Ukrainians won’t be resisting and fighting like this, so they never planned for it. You mean?
“Though [Russia] talked of mobilizing 800,000 men, she could only bring 350,000 into action, and only then with great difficulty. The war shattered the myth and the reality of Russian power.” (A.J.P. Taylor on the consequences of the Crimean War, 1853-1856). History repeating?
I just don't understand why RUSSIA of all nations would organize a blitzkrieg (or anything inferior to combined arms deep penetration).
like...did they burn their own archives? I can't imagine the red army having less than 10 contingency plans to "retake" Ukraine.
Also do consider that the Javelin shoulder anti tank system is causing havoc on advancing Russian infantry. Thus even if Russia neutralize Ukrainian heavy armor they would still have a tough time advancing.
Isn't this what Russia has been doing since October? What about the buildup that still remains outside of ukr?
You are mentioning that RU only have one echelon, but I understood that only a fraction of the total army surrouding Ukrainia has been implied so far. Wouldnt the rest of RU army be these 2nd 3rd echelons? Or dont you think of it because these should have been sent before?
Also because 150k Russian troops are spread thin across 3 fronts. Can't have multiple waves when you're attacking on 3 fronts. Russia hoped 1 big wave + bombing scare tactics + tech would easily crush Ukrainian resolve... it hasn't. Russia didn't expect NATO involvement either.
To your point, I think it's remarkable that we haven't seen any footage of Russian air assault elements like we did during the first two days of the invasion.
I’ve seen reports that only one-third of amassed Russian forces have entered Ukraine. Thought the rest were the second and third echelons. Was this not correct?
Breaking- senator Tim Kaine on MSNBC just now says they are starting to see signs of Russian troops refusing to participate in the invasion and go over the border in to Ukraine.
There are speculations about the initial amassing of troops already depleting a huge portion of Russian logistics capability.
you are not even addressing the requirements for occupying. Much like the US in Iraq, only worse.
Barbarossa was never going to succeed because logistics. As is well argued by David Stahel in his series of books about Operation Barbarossa.
That happened if you order Blitzkrieg at wish 🤷♀️
Landmaxing? What it mean?
great thread. I'm translating to Spanish, shorting and improving repetitive parts. I'll share a link to the thread. One question you used the term land-max and landmaxing, I can understand almost the concept, what do you want to say? Could help me?
As I understand it, this refers to where you allocate your resources.
land-maxing: put most (or all) resources into a powerful land army, ignore navy
And vice versa.
Would you say it’s lack of land maxing or poor strategic planning. As they still do have a large enough force to execute such maneuvers.
They never mobilised the second and third echelons at all. Obviously not the third anyway. But no Second.
Russia can't afford proper Blitzkrieg for a country like UA. They could though for smaller countries like Poland and the Baltics
This thread is awesome. Thank you Kamil
Yeah, that was when countries which had reproductive rates above replacement were fighting each other.
Eh, Germany was barely above replacement before the war(and below it during the war, as well Hitlers early reign) and before Hitler Germany was below replacement for 10 years (Replacement level was higher than today, due to high mortality)
Same for UK and France. France fell below replacement in early 30s, UK - in late 20s. Only the southern and Eastern parts had high population growth, North and West were just maintaining the population or growing barely
Sure, NW Europe led the world in this problem, but there's something different about today.
True. The problem has spead to most of the world today. Even countries like Iran are below replacement.
Back then they thought it was a temporary blip, could be fixed with lebensraum or whatever.
Now, deep down, everyone knows they're going extinct.
About your choice of image: those are Polish 7TP tanks, 10th Cavalry Brigade, on maneuvers before the German invasion.
If you are right about the lack of 2nd and 3rd echelon, still you need the Ukrainian forces to exploit these weaknesses and counterattack strategically. Otherwise, the Russiams might still win. But, a great analysis you wrote.
He doesn’t even touch on Russias greatest advantage which is they have complete control in the air. You can read right now about what they’re doing. They just use their air force to clear the way for the ground forces and they keep moving in. Ukraine can’t stop it
They don’t need to do that. Their Air Force just clears the way for wherever they want to go. That’s what they’re doing right now. Ukraine has no ability to stop this.
Those are Polish WW2 tanksXD
I thought Russia was commited to the deep battle doctrine.
Blitzkrieg, which AFAIK never was named this way by the german doctrine as it was the schwerpunktprinzip doctrine, was designed for a short of supplies army.
And, that "one echelon" of Russian troops appears to be poorly trained and thinly supplied.
Just a quick note - the image with the 1939 tanks. They are Polish 7TP tanks so not quite correct for Soviet or German armies.
These are Soviet T-26 tanks in the 1930s.
Again, there’s not that much empty territory to push forward and occupy in Ukraine.
(No comment)
Amazing thread, but why assuming blitzkrieg when it's never been part of the soviet/Russian land doctrine?
Well, I believe that's the longest thread so interesting I've actually read it in it's entirety on Twitter. Kudos.
New echelon is coming, with a military convoy 60 kms long....😒🤬
twitter.com/lemondefr/stat…
EN DIRECT | Bonjour à toutes et tous, bienvenue dans ce nouveau direct consacré à la sixième journée de l’invasion russe en Ukraine
Guerre en Ukraine : une journée marquée par les hommages aux Ukrainiens, du Parlement européen au Congrès américain
La présidence française du conseil de l’Union européenne a annoncé que les Vingt-Sept avaient donné mardi leur feu vert à ces deux mesures de rétorsion contre l’invasion russe en Ukraine, où les bombardements font toujours rage.
lemonde.fr
CC @gepardtatze - eine Erklärung für die desaströsen Berichte über die russischen Truppen in der Ukraine?
And they are NOT attacking an invasion force conveniently amassed in a narrow strip on the border 😊
A classic illustration of this is their paratrooper capacity. They have 60k of those....great. But they only have 120 transport carriers to fly them anywhere. I.E a third of those carriers would only be able to land two battalions. It is an in joke in military circles.
And, that "one echelon" of Russian troops appears to be poorly trained and thinly supplied
there is a Chechen echelon coming to Kiev
twitter.com/EstulinDaniel/…
Los chechenos!!! Presente!
How well did Barbarossa turn out?
Isn't an invading force passé?
So many eyes in the sky today that they're basically sitting ducks.
twitter.com/kamilkazani/st…
How does it reflect on this war? First, Russian invading force is small. It has LOTS of artillery ofc. But it's not numerous enough to win. Pro-Russian analysts compare their advance with Barbarossa. But unlike Wehrmacht in 1941 Russian invaders have only *ONE ECHELON OF TROUPS*
Great thread! Thanks for posting this!
It is! It is a great thread!
Thanks, @kamilkazani!
If I was on the pro Russia side, I probably wouldn't compare their invasion with one that famously failed, but what do I know, I haven't been purged for saying bad things about Putin
Well can’t they quickly send in reinforcements and more divisions. So how do you foresee them being only one echelon of troops.
All your thread is really interesting. I read that soldiers of Belarus and 10.000 soldiers of Chechnya will join the Russian army in Ukraine. Are they the second and third echelons?
Russia is using different waves of invading forces. They first send in 1/3 then the other and still has 1/3 in reserve. If needed they can go to carpet bombing and shelling of cities to break the defenders will. Something they will certainly be telling the Ukraine delegation.
20.000 armoured vehicles
More than 13.300 tanks. Over 1.300 aircraft... Not eought fot what?
More than enought to get half Europe
Lots of obsolete and badly maintained equipment not much modern gear
The ucranian one of course
Hahaha. We have seen the last few days such a big shit in organization and logistics that is enough. Russia has nuclear weapons. That's it. This traffic jam alone would be a joke for the US an EU Forces. Pathetic.
Maybe a partridge in a pear tree
hilo interesante de la torpeza de putin en esta guerra. Y en el ámbito económico no es diferente!
No veo que el objetivo de Putin sea ocupar esos territorios.
How does this second 60km long Russian convoy line loos to you and what do you make of it?
Totally agreed. and they stall out every time they move because they don't have enough logistical transportation. they cant even use the artillery that much because it takes to many trucks to refill.
So you telling me in just 5 days ONE ECHELON has made this much progress?
Hmm...
You clearly don’t know their strategy, stop pretending you do
(No comment)
My thoughts exactly and it's kinda still winter.
The more catch-up reading I do, the more I come to realise how much they've screwed up (regardless how things unfold from here). This is a great thread.
Watch the Frontline 2 part doco on Putin...I just did for 2nd time after a few years back. Excellent stuff.
You have produced a good overview, but "Blitzkrieg" is not defined by "using more than one echelon". The latter is just a mode of standard operational conduct. "Blitzkrieg" in a WW2 sense (Germans never used this word. Instead "Bewegungskrieg" - War of Movement) means ...
... means breaking through the enemy line with a critical mass of mobile troops and reach deep into the hinterland (cutting supply lines, taking key points of infrastructure), while the infantery ties down enemy troops and neutralizes pockets of resistance. And this...
happens all at the same time, by the way. What you mean by second/third echelons are operational reserves, which are used to exploit weak spots in the enemy defenses, not as kind of a "fresh wave" after the first one is gone. But other than that - great job here!
140,000 (probably more) is definitely not small.
Akin to Italy in the 30s ?
"Gorschkov's curse"?
A good thread overall. About navy, however: Russia needs submarines with ballistic missiles as a part of the nuclear triad. To protect these submarines in their operational areas, it needs a fleet. It's not about hubris, it's about needs. Their fleet size is rational.
I believe he refers to 🇷🇺 wasting its meagre resources maintaining the soviet era carrier, battlecruisers & destroyers. An optimum fleet for 🇷🇺 would basically just be its SSBNs, SSNs & SSKs with some FFGs, corvettes & maritime patrol planes to monitor and protect the bastions.
AFAIK Admirał Kuznetsov is broken and only floating dock where it may be fixed had a fire and is broken too.
One could argue that the USSR couldn’t really afford real carrier strike groups. The heavy aircraft cruiser is not really the same?
In fact newly-built frigates have suffered delays because of its reliance on ukrainian spare parts, notably regarding the turbines used on board. Excellent thread, keep it going because we'll all learn a lot :)
What are they burning, coal???
Which is why they were so eager to get the port in Syria?
Why in Ukraine? Sounds paradoxical!
And Russia has poor access to the "global sea", their ships need pass through UE, Turkey + UE to reach the Atlantic, deal with arctic ice instead or being checked by the Japanese navy (1905 feelings). Russia shouldn't bet on its naval power.
It would be hilarious if Russia were ultimately defeated by its own corruption
But the again what they don't have in quality they have in quantity and nukes
Путин любит посещать парады кораблей, да
Does US land-max or naval-max? How does air war factor into that bifurcation?
What do you think of China then, maintaining a large PLA while still pouring money to PLA Navy? Do you think it is sustainable?
that being said it hasn't built a new major surface combatant since the USSR.
It would be surprising, but not totally out of the question for Putin to start leveling cities. One of his arguments is that Ukrainians are in fact Russians. Will he become the practitioner of genocide against a people so similar, by his own words, to Russian?
Rusia se folló a Alemania sin casi armada. Los barcos militares son buenos para los americanos y los británicos que tienen intereses fuera del continente. En una guerra en el continente europeo... como si van en lancha.
Oh, I know where this is going 😀
Конец немного предсказуем, но увлекательно.
Ну вот, на самом интересном месте 😄. Где следующий твит?
But not before the decline of its powerful neighbors, Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and Swedish Empire
England on the other hand concentrated on the navy - also with great success strategically.
Well, that means that EU,NATO and Ukraine should use the momentum to have Putin replaced. Else he'll come back with vengeance.
This is historically wrong. Prussia never had colonies that were more than a fort and some surrounding squaremeters. Those on your picture were acquired in the 1880s by the then unified German Reich. The Reich lost them by Versaille.
German colonial projects before 1871 - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.wikipedia.org
Great thread. Just on this one, always funny how vaunted "Prussia" was really "Brandenburg", but went with the cooler name. Branding on a national level...
Is that a map about the 17C?
i thought most if not all of these colonies were acquired in the 19th century when Germany had already unified after 1870.
I love your thread but Brandenburg in 17th century was still nobody and definitely not in the borders like on the map.
Embarrassing, but he's right, I do sometimes forget this.
17th century? When half of it was duchy controlled by P-L commonwealth?
this is all factually wrong about German history
if you read your posted map it even reads 1914 as a year
17th century? in what comic book did you get your info dude?
does the US fall into this trap as well?
I think you are mixing up things here. Prussia/Brandenburg never had Navy nor colonies in the 17th/18th century. Your map describes Wilhelms Germany 1900 or so..., He massively invested into Navy to challenge the Brits
Your both may want to brush up your history. The map actually shows all former & planned German colonies, including the Brandenburg colonies of the 17th/18th century (the small red dots).
de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolonien_…
And as far as navy is concerned:
Kurbrandenburgische Marine – Wikipedia
(no description)
de.wikipedia.org
interesting never heard about the Brandenburg Marine, somehow they have erradicated memory on this here in Berlin....
Klein Venedig, that was actually 1500's when the Venezuelan territory was rented to the Welser bankers families. Can't remember details rn, Spanish Crown was in debt so the Welser took over. They couldn't against the indian tribes and climate. Eventually left, Spanish returned.
Get your facts and dates right. This map of German colonies is from the beginning of the 20th (!) century!
thank you for that thread but... they "pandered". not "pondered"
You are just rambling on
WTF Germny tried to colonize Venezuela ?? What damn went wrong@@@
Who can forget Kaiser-Wilhelm-II-Land?
check out Scotland's colonial efforts!
Sorry this had never happened. Brandenburg never had colonies, like you Show it. It was a small Country with a small army.
I'm sorry how is this least bit relevant.
Where do you see the US in terms of land v sea? Also where does air power fit in?
I think the U.S. is focused on marine
I wonder whether this also maps to what @KofmanMichael has been reiterating: "ops executed with a questionable rationale so that a particular combat arm can get into the fight to 'do its thing.'"? 🤔
How about US? They seem to have first-class navy & army. Or am I wrong?
The birth of geopolitics! Sea (Mahan) vs Land (Ratzel, Spengler, Haushofer)
While I do agree with many of your points, this one mildly irks me given that it has been shown to be possible. It just happened to have had poor consequences for reasons that are not always budgetary (such as for Imperial Germany)
The best example of an efficient Navy is Great Britain. Its army was kept small and only operated in European theatres with allies.
However pre WW1 Germany wanted a world class Navy. Wilhelm II and Turpitz created its High Seas fleet specifically to challenge the Royal Navy. Yet it was a vanity project. At Jutland it sank more RN ships but could not break out and sat unused for the rest of the war.
Excellent thread.
How does the USA fit into that? For a layperson, they appear to do just well with a first class army, and a first class navy (and an airforce, how do those fit into the picture?).
I think USA is a different picture - its economic power is so unprecedented, that it can afford doing that.
And Kamil mentioned that dilemma relative to european powers not mentioning USA.
Congrats for this great thread! May I ask you if you have any kind of reading recommendation on this army vs navy dilemma?
Spanish infantry and Spanish Army on XVIs .. Used to be both the best. Nothing else.. it´s very good.
This thread 👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾
Minor correction: it's pander, not ponder.
I'm sorry to nitpick, love the thread, but it's pander, not ponder. Ponder: think about something deeply, pander: gratify or indulge (an immoral or distasteful desire or taste or a person with such a desire or taste).
(Perhaps the word is pander?)
I’m not sure you’re using ‘pondered’ right there. I don’t know what you mean.
it's *pandered not pondered :)
*pander
I think when you are using the English word "ponder" you really mean to use the word "pander"
Pandered
Pandered not pondered!
***pander*** not ***ponder***
Pandered, not pondered.
*pandered
Great thread! 👏
*Pander: gratify or indulge (an immoral or distasteful desire or taste or a person with such a desire or taste)
Ponder: think about (something) carefully, especially before making a decision or reaching a conclusion.
*pandered - FYI
The problem with dictators is they surround themselves with "yes men".
Enron collapsed because the prudent are excised.
China let Covid run rampant because no one brings bad news to the boss in a dictatorship.
With Putin, he kills those who provide constructive criticism.
Great thread! FYI, The English word you intend is "pandered". "Pondered" is a valid word, but means "thought about deeply".
(I only speak one language, so can't really criticize, but in case you wanted to know ...)
*pandered to
pandered?
Great thread, you'll never get to see this from woke crowd of CNN and BBC. Thank you @kamilkazani
уважаемый Камиль, наверное вы имели в виду pander, pandered
Russia's difficulty is not being hostile to the Ukrainian people, and the Ukrainian army uses apartment buildings as hiding places to fight back.
Excellent analysis and insight. The word pondered is wrong in these tweets tho. Pondered is just to consider. Pander is the word you need there, which is appropriately to bow to, to solicit support by appealing to.
Second time, so maybe not a typo or auto-correct…the word is "pandered".
Panders is the word you are attempting to use. Pondering means something less.
The word you want is “pander,“ not “ponder.“
I think you mean pandered not ponder
swap ponder with pander everywhere
pandered
The politics you described ⬆️ might have played a role in ⬇️ the busted tires of vehicles in the war in Ukraine
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.🧵
1/
I feel like you should really @ Kadyrov when you subtweet... Not sure he gets this the way that he should.
Why is there Ukrainian flag on the construction site in the background?
Lol good eye. it looks like a tarp of some sort.
Wait, Stalin was Georgian
Hitler was Austrian.
Wait, I am only concerned about the claim that no non-ethnic Russian can become a supreme leader in Russia
I'm just pointing out that being a minority is no disqualification against being an autocrat, even an ethno-autocrat.
Indeed, I think I would agree
Hitler was not a minority. Austria was annexed because it was considered ethnically German.
It's true. Finno-Ugrics and Turkics are pushed down.
The USSR is not the same as Russia though.
Russia isn't the same as the Soviet Union -which was seen as a goal union of communists of all ethnicities centered in Moscow.
Napoleon was Corsican
Back then Austrians considered themselves ethnically German, but stopped in the years after WWII.
And Khrushchev was Ukrainian. I asked the same question. 😉
guys, ethnic minorities were considered "aliens" (инородец) until the founding of ussr. but ussr is also known for its ethnic cleanses
stalin's example is rather extraordinary, you can't use him to say that russia (&ussr) doesn't care about ethnic background
And that was the Soviet Union
Of course, Russia is not USSR. What I want to say, is that given the history of USSR leaders, I wouldn't think it's unconceivable that non ethnic Russian becomes the supreme leader. At least I think it's not unconceivable for Putin. He's a soviet man.
this palace looks amazing. can we get a tuvan thread sometime?
That house looks Japanese.
Like an eunuch
What about Stalin and Khrushchev? They also were not Russian ethnically. 🧐🤔
see this thread to answer your question.
Is it weird to have house envy? Unusually good taste for a Russian oligarch
Seriously mate?? Is it his place ? Or governments place?👀🤔
You know what you are talking about.
Is that a Ukrainian flag I see in the empty plot next door?
"In such a country as Russia minority member can hardly become the supreme leader."
Did you heard the name of Staline?
USSR is not Russia, Emme ...fail
It’s unfortunate he’s Tuvan.
Even Shoygu is tuvan but I think he can call support from Medvedev who is depety of national security council because his circles was purge before and when he visited Thailand few years ago , he try to make himself different from Putin during interview.
And shoygu attempt coup and put Medvedev as acting president
Palace is a bit of an over statement
Where is this?
So him being a secret practitioner of esoteric Buddhism is not so secret.
This is bollocks. Had he been more popular, he has every chance for presidency. He's been the head of MChS, the safest position, they come to rescue, how can anyone dislike them?
that picture tells a story of corruption right there.
Not gonna lie, I like his palace.
If I lived there I would never leave.
Note the Ukrainian flag on his property😉🤫😉
What a beautiful house.
What about Stalin?
Stalin was a minority member...
Unrelated but that palace is dope
Isn’t that a Ukrainian flag on the house construction site next door? 😊
Interesting!
Pretty sure that was USSR ?
I do not agree with this point. Although racial prejudice is very real in Russia. Most Russians perceive him as Russian, as oppose to Sobyanin for example, who is often a target of racial slur.
Looks like a house from the Hitman video games
Again, you show no understanding of Russian reality. Shoygu is widely adored by the most and could easily be elected president in an open election, him being Tuvan is no problem. He is among top3, if not THE most obvious successor, should Putin decide to step down.
Very insightful observation! One can draw a parallel to Gates/Brin&Page nominating Nadella/Pichai as CEOs of their companies. The same mechanism that you described was at work here. They do not feel threatened (correctly or not) by Indian guys as their representatives.
Definitely keen to hear more about Shoygu and the Tuvans
"delegate him in the army"? WTF is that supposed to mean?
Clearly corrupt. And a skilled political operator. So?
Shoygu's mansion is, frankly, tight as fuck
If anyone is interested about the Tuvan nation, I recently featured it on my history blog, because they just had the 100th anniversary of becoming an independent country:
One Hundred Years Ago, Countries were established that have been all but forgotten – August 1921: Baranya-Baja and Tannu-Tuwa
Zur deutschen Fassung. Attentive readers of this series know that the maps of Europe and the Middle East were shaped in the years following World War I. For some states, however, you needed a magni…
andreasmoser.blog
Say what you want about his ability to maximize survival by facilitating corruption and being a subservient lackey, the man has good taste in housing.
Ukraine flag to the top)
»ethnic« = racial
they try to deny the existence of human diversity but they cannot
Classic downfall like in soviet union.
I'm not a native English speaker but I think you mean "pandering" here
*pandering* just FYI
what a gay picture... #thereisabsolutelynothingwrongwithit
Pandering not pondering*
Great thread! 👏
*Pander: gratify or indulge (an immoral or distasteful desire or taste or a person with such a desire or taste)
Ponder: think about (something) carefully, especially before making a decision or reaching a conclusion.
Thugs. Mafia.
Okay, I have to ask. What the hell is going on in this picture?
Can you feel the lurve between these two? 😄
Awesome write
I never saw it this way before.
PANDERING
Dude sounds familiar 🍊
Кстати во времена Сердюкова там была какая никакая пресса(не политическая конечно)но был коммерсант со своими журналами,РБК ещё существовал
Wish you would do an analysis on U.S. government officials. Our folks do more damage to the world -- you will not see what is happening. The oligarch is more visible. The veils are thinner now.
So there is a yes man to Putin and his nuke options?
So he got rid of a 'good' general and replaced him with a courtier. Bad mistake.
Public relations
Don't call it smarter, because that s not smart.
A modern Fouche
Good call
Very nice thread, but in a way there has been only one administration. Term really doesn't matter, as you can get fired if doing bad, or automatically stay if doing good
Only one administration since 1991?
In a way, yes.. the funny charades of swapping President and Prime Minister positions. In fact, it's a dictatorship
Sounds a lot like Vladimir Sukhomlinov, the Tsarist Minister of War in the years before World War I.
Can you please expand in this idea of minimizing animosity to maximize political survival?
You know besides 5th Ave glossing over reputations on Media, etc. U.S. government has got some war criminals, as well who have never been prosecuted.
He looks like a faberge egg. Is that the look he was going for?
It was pretty much 20 years of Putin and a little Yeltin and what...
He sucked couple🍌 🍌 🍌
and he still there.
Every single administration? It's been practically only one administration since Yeltsin.
First public save of this tweet! 🏆
Readwise users: Like this reply to save kamilkazani's tweet to your account without cluttering their replies 📚
Stats:
• 55 total saves of kamilkazani's tweets (ranked #1154)
"a cunning political entrepreneur" = asslicker?
In the face of nuclear weapons, it is good that he wants to survive
Basically Russia’s Talleyrand
Damn single since 1991, no fan of russia, but I hope he finds love.
He's had a sour look in every recent photo; I would infer he's been informed that Russia's limited field assets will be squandered on Ukraine and the resulting loss of face.
this is the guy from the video that looked like he would like smack Putin and get on the next armed flight to the us for asylum.
Yeltsin, Putin, Medvedev and Putin again. You make it sound as if there were at least 1o different since 1991
Which means he's an oily bureaucratic sycophant to all above him. Nothing more.
Shoygu will be the man to take Putin down. Just watch.
This is Sergey Shoygu. Remember his face. He is a war criminal. The Hague will be waiting for him. #WarCrimes #StopPutin #StopWarInUkraine #Ukraine #StopWar #Terrorist #Terror
I would not be surprised if his career is now coming to a "natural end" though.
And perhaps the careers of more top generals too.
And that fear alone could inspire them to an actual desperate coupe attempt.
Sir please stop, stop the war please.. innocent public’s and soldiers has been killed...
What the word / pobin videos were, before the bystander "YEST" ? (~"Vita?" (Vladimir=Vitja), as pleadingly Vladimir Putini?) youtu.be/8TNdihbV5go
I believe this. As per Alexander Litvinenko's claims, the Russian government IS the mob. Krysha were lucrative revenue stream and its funny that even hardcore criminals became afraid of the FSB.
If you are not corrupt, you are a threat in this mafia state.
Bruh. The Serdyukov's Oboronservis fraud was, like, the most spectacular case of corruption in the Russian army in the last 20 years
Коррупционный скандал в Министерстве обороны России — Википедия
(no description)
ru.wikipedia.org
Like, I'm sure he fought groups of interest, but not because he was a good guy, just because he had competing interests.
This isn't a defence of Shoigu, but I don't think the "white knight" narrative is justified here
You are wrong on that one. Serdukov was caught balls deep in corruption with his lover Vasilieva. 3kkk₽ was stolen
sites.tufts.edu/wpf/files/2018…
Lolwhat? Serdyukov has been corrupted af, his lover made trillions seeking army property.
Selling army property, not seeking
He lost his power because of the corruption. Acres of land were transferred to his affair woman's name, as well as real estate.
Completely wrong understanding of the Serdyukov figure and what happened to him. He is a product of nepotism, a small time furniture store general manager who just happened to marry Zubkov's daughter, one of Putins closest friends.
And he got fired because he had an affair with one of his co-workers. So Putin punished him, for not knowing how he got where he is, not because Serdyukov was some master mind reformer.
The downside of encouraging corruption is that one day you call on a key part of your society that hasn’t been corrupted and discover that it isn’t there. That’s some downside.
C#@@vvvv
Nice to hear informed critique!
For those who want to read the paper:
brief.bismarckanalysis.com
Once they figure out how they are going to deal with it -- it will be over. The U.S. government is no bystander -- the U.S. government has quite a few puppet governments, including Ukraine. Ukraine needs U.S. support to survive.
This guy ^ is an FBS stooge!
Very insightfull, would combine with the mythos here in The Netherlands also related to being neutral in WW1 and the battle(s) in the first day's of WW2. Hitler also had to reside to your third strategy (bombing Rotterdam) as they were losing momentum at the bridge over the Maas
Is Bismarck analysis based out of the North Atlantic or
They sucked! We can see it now. 😌♥️🇺🇦
Anyone who ever drove a Vaz Lada can make their own conclusions on Russian "tech".
可以考虑看一下《俾斯麦分析》一篇正当其时有关俄军的文章。文章详实、信息全面。尽管文章正确指出陆基、崇尚火力乃是俄军的特点，2007至2012年间国防部长谢尔季科夫极大地提升了军队的效能，但它仍有误导。
If you’re Zielinski you take that deal and spare the country from more bloodshed.
Zelensky has NATO, USA/EU behind him. Why would he do this? He hasn't been in a better position until now. Of course, save bloodshed is key that's why Zelensky would push for a cease fire before any further negotiations continue. Once cease fire is established, then Zelesnky can
weight his options of letting separatist regions go or not. The issue then becomes, if Zelenksy lets two regions go, what stops Russia from coming back again for more regions? Zelensky can negotiate two regions to go to Russia while seeking NATO membership. But if Russia demands
unconditional surrender with promise of neutrality, Zelensky can't possibly take that option because he would know Russia will just hold out until Zelesnki is out of office before invading again.
He doesn’t really I don’t think.
He can't take any deal unless Ukrainians want him to, and what indication is there that they want him to? The West is about to flood the country with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. Perhaps drones as well. (I've seen no mention of these, but it's an obvious move.)
I think so. Putin can claim helping his brothers in Donbas was his goal the whole time and have some people from there making videos praising Putin for liberating them.
He must claim denationalization of Ukrane as well. That was his narrative and moral reasoning for the invasion.
I dont see how he can compromise on that and keep appearances unless he removes Zelensky.
He could simply lie and say he killed all the Natzi’s. Then say while he was in Donbas he found out those folks love him and want to be Russians so he will bravely fight for them and allow them the honor of being Russians.
I fear that Donbas will not be enough for him. He has to show tangible result of denationalization. Forcing Zelensky to resign to stop the war and then call for elections (that Putin can mangle with) might be the easiest way out for all sides.
Not happening
No one will vote for a russian puppet after an invasion. He gets Donbass and Crimea. He needs to dismantle Azov Battalion too to achieve minimal denazification. Else, he takes a bit more (Odessa, Kharkiv, most shoreline) and gets a new Vietnam.
It will all depend on how the situation on the ground evolves. Let's hope for the best.
Not happening
Yeah, but the problem is after invading Ukraine it’s hard for Ukraine to accept that knowing Russia might come after them again in a few years.
Right. They will demand guarantees for their security. I hope that whatever mechanism is implemented will allow for prolonged peace.
Putin wanted regime change, hence the move into greater Ukraine
He can’t back out now - all he has to show so far is Russian body bags and a bloody nose
He needs Kyiv w/o it he’s won *nyet
Well said... invasion is backfiring as Biden said it would.
twitter.com/SeeSawRrr/stat…
How does he explain the destruction of cities and the war crimes? Do we just let him walk on war crimes? It’s starting to look like the criminals in this 🌎get what they want by taking & causing death-then they don’t get arrested becuz POWER & THEY TRY AGAIN. #🤡prison
Main stuf mising. €. EU pays UKR and RUS
Putin gets assassinated by oligarchs or meets the guillotine on the streets of Moscow.
This is the best ending. Putin fucked Russia.
That is almost certainly the goal - the fight is over which regions get counted as "separatists" and into what sort of pollical structure they will be organized.
Two options: (1) what you said BUT Russia will have to deal with years of economic losses if they annex "separatist" regions (2) cease fire is called, no one claims victory to help Putin save face, fighting doesn't officially end but Russia heads back while holding on to Crimea.
I'd wager option 2 because 5 years of being off SWIFT, cut off from global market, cut off from world sporting events, cut off from airline routes would almost certainly create a dire economic situation where Putin risks losing control of Russian populace.
I don’t see NATO easing sanctions just like that. At this point, I think either Russia has to win quickly (or risk more direct involvement by NATO/EU), or they’re going to have to give up Crimea to get back to “normal.”
Yeah I'm sure part of this is to get Crimea's water supply flowing. urkaine cemented the damm so Russia has been having to take a costly route to get fresh water into there.
I think Ukrainian will not agree to that without major compensation. They were attacked, unprovoked, and now have the stronger military presence on the ground. A drawn out war of attrition would expose Russia’s supply chain weaknesses, especially with severe economic sanctions.
Ukraine should say "get out of our country and we will stop killing you. We will send you the bill for the damage you have caused." When it's over Putin gets tried as a war criminal. You don't negotiate with terrorists. Russia denied the evidence that they would invade.
Russia will be lucky to get out alive.
we will all be lucky to get out of this alive if someone doesn't stop Putin
Russian trolls are still getting paid!
Every player wants access to Ukraine's food. If the crops don't get planted they all lose. No one can afford to continue this much longer.
I think Russia main goal is to occupy Ukraine. This is simplified by „defeating“ the Ukraine Gov/Army and then securing the land for them selves. As soon as it is done they will summon the UN and NATO for negotiation about Russia security concerns with Ukraine as hostages 😬 1/-
Russia will probably want all the western countries bordering it to be politically and War neutral like Swizerland (no NATO, no EU) and that Ukraine should be federalized to ensure moderate autonomy of „separatist“ area and to diminish Ukraine Gov influence 2/_
This would a good deal for Russia, but will severely undermine the authority and autonomy of neighboring states … but if it prevents WW3 and nuclear fallout : I think it would be worth it. People are dying because of leaders they will never meet 😩
And you live where?
In Germany
omg you want to sell us out like that? damn 💀 anyway I dont think he wants to occupy, puppet government would be enough. and he knows what nuclear war means so in my opinion probability is not that high (unless he really went crazy like they say)
Sorry, i did not mean to be hurtful. Just wanted to prevent the worst outcome.
They can want it all they want to. With this attack they've thrown away any chance of getting it. Why would any country already in NATO leave it now?
Maybe to avoid WW3 and a nuclear fallout?
Russia will end up with nothing that resembles a prize. They'll most likely end up with a crap outcome but do their best to portray it as a win. If they're lucky they keep the Crimea.
Тварюки налітають
I start to think, that the russian army wasn't necessarily overrated but that the political leadership has no clear realistic goal on what they want achieve and at the same time started a war that is very unpopular with the russian people.
So it combines 2 problems, low moral for the Russians and high moral for Ukrainians and also a complete fuck up of a "strategy". What do they want to do in Kiev? Urban warfare?
It seems that russian leadership wanted to decapitate Ukraine fast and completely missjuged.
Yeah. From what I've read only something like 30% of the forces stationed on the border have been engaged as of yesterday, so they appear to have at least the manpower for a second wave, but it isn't there.
Instead there are reports of the Rosguardia (approx. National Guard) and other "riot control" troops being sent into the southern territory around Kherson. The plan clearly was to use as little force as possible after the initial artillery barrages, because they understand
that heavy shelling of Ukrainian cities with massive civilian casualties is more or less as bad as losing the war in terms of public perception, if not worse.
But now they’re sending in the Chechen paramilitary. A bit like Tsar’s troops used to crushing inferior enemies, probably, but anyhow not half as civilized in warfare.
Interestingly, a certain part of the Russian people supports the invasion. They are being fed propaganda and have no access (or knowledge of) legitimate sources of information. They are convinced Russia is only bombing military infrastructure (I've seen accounts of people from -
Russia explaining to their Ukrainian relatives hiding from the shelling that they are not being bombed, and denying their accounts of attacks on civilians); their brains are soaked in the narrative of "Donetsk and Luhansk suffered for 8 years!" (because Putin fabricated the war -
but of course many Russians and Donetsk/Luhansk people are not aware of that. I've seen a person from Donetsk claim that "Russia has always helped us!"), and for some Russians, it morally justifies bombing Ukraine; and lastly, after so many years of propaganda, they'll believe -
anything Putin tells them. Literally anything. Originally, most Russians did not believe war was even possible: "We love Ukrainians, why would we fight them!" But then Putin makes a speech justifying the war, and it's immediately, "8 years of Donetsk people suffering! NATO wants-
to kill us all! Nazi Ukrainian government! Our President is 100% right to invade!"
Putin can easily twist discourse to shift it in any direction he wants, and the brainwashed masses will believe him. There are millions of people with independent thought, but they're too scared -
to resist because the OMON is ruthless and very ready to arrest any dissenter. Protesting war was declared treason in the past few days in Russia, I believe.
So in other words, Putin got bored.
Yeah, it really does seem like that's pretty much what's happened. Literally and without sarcasm.
Nah, i got a rather worse fear, that he got wrong infos.
Thank you for these threads - always informative.
You can clearly see that they wanted to split the country in half. But the resistance in the North is much harder than expected. Seems there nato boots on the ground that lead the major resistance pocket, and this frustrate the hell Putin. Now will a 5th front be opened from
Belarus is just a question of time. There is something wrong in that planning. I wouldnt be surprised if one day we hear that Putin himself designed it.
Only if they attempt to hold the territory long term will they lose or an unforeseen economic downturn that forces their hand. What you’re suggesting assumes the same problems don’t exists for the Ukrainian side and I’d wager their problems are much bigger than Russia’s
Secondly, you assume they’ll try take the entire territory and I’d wager they’ll take the east which is much more comfortable with Russian influence and use that to influence the surviving Ukrainian government.
"the east which is much more comfortable" those times are gone now. Every ukraine citizen hates russians now
But thats clearly not what they're currently trying to do if you look at any map of troop movements.
Umm they’re bombing in kiev from day 1
This isn’t at all focused on those eastern provinces
Just because you attack something doesn’t mean it’s your real objective. Deception is a huge part of war in keeping the other side busy using resources inefficiently against your real goals.
If they don’t have supply chain for all their attackers as this tweet & other news say, it’s kinda a failure.
E territories they basically already had. They didn’t need to do a giant fakeout campaign all across the country to get them.
Putin thinking easy win makes more sense.
Besides goal to terrorize the capital, Kyiv is on the Dnipro River, considered eastern half of Ukraine, the part Russians think is theirs.
They can barely breakthrough Donetsk and Luhansk, the areas you'd think would be most pro-🇷🇺 lol.
ofc they can't. Speaking Russian doesn't automatically make you pro-🇷🇺 anymore than a French Swiss wants to merge with France. Zelenskiy got landslide margins even in the Donbas.
I think that is right they will focus on east but thanks to 2014, eastern cities are powerfully anti-Russian. Millions of Russophiles left for good. Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Mariupol, all elected pro-Ukrainian leaders, citizens are "locked and loaded".
Why on Earth, barring a change in the trajectory now, would Ukraine settle for that? Russia is losing Crimea in this, if things are playing out on the ground anywhere close to how being reported.
Crimea is gone. Everyone recognizes this.
Crimea was gone.
As far as I can tell all Ukraine needs is for NATO/Europe to keep flood the country with Javelin missiles and manpads and Russia will be pretty proper fucked.
The US and any and all leaders of Europe have clearly stated they won’t intervene directly. Do you think they’d say that if it was any other country attacking Ukraine? They say this because they don’t want a war with Russia because Russia is the successor of Soviet Nuclear power.
Javelins aren’t missiles that can deter Russia and in response Russia has their own capable response on the capitals where such systems would be launched from. Don’t overestimate western capacity and underrate Russian
Lmao where do you get this from. The Javelins are one of the biggest deterrents to Russian aggression. Do you know how they work? And do you know why they specifically are so significant?
Javelins are anti-tank missiles. These cannot deter a russian attack. They might delay them, but not by much. Russian has other capabilities to target personnel manning such systems including drones etc.
FGM-148 Javelin - Wikipedia
(no description)
en.wikipedia.org
Lol you clearly haven’t been looking at the columns of tanks being absolutely FUCKED by those Javelins. And Javelins are shoot and forget. I pop, and I’m gone. Russians STILL haven’t established air superiority 😂
If its so very easy to beat russia, who wont NATO put its foot down and stop this war?
Don’t ask me, ask the asshats who aren’t upholding the Budapest Memorandum. We should be putting our foot down, because we said we would, in exchange for Ukraines disarming of Nuclear Arms. Make NO mistake… NATO could figgidy fuck Russia 😂
The Budapest memorandum was not a defensive pact. The only signatory in violation is Russia.
You are 100% correct. However, the US did vow security to Ukraine. Which we indeed are providing, I just believe that doing more would result in a faster ending…as I believe Putin is bluffing on going nuclear.
The risk isn't Putin consciously deciding to start a nuclear war. The risk is the Russian military being unable to tell a nuclear attack from a conventional attack, because they involve the same weapons systems and warning systems.
I applaud your knowledge of how the attack might take place but you’re straying from the initial argument topic now. Which was the US intervention of the Ukraine-Russia conflict in relation to the Budapest Memorandum. But, the risk is ABSOLUTELY of a conscious decision as well.
To be clear I think there is hope for Ukraine: The war is deeply unpopular in Russia, Russia's economy almost crashed itself with no external help on day 1, and Europe is getting serious about sanctions.
Ukraine just needs to make the cost of Russian victory too high.
NATO doesn't want to fight Russia directly because we are worried about potential escalation to a nuclear war. We would easily destroy Russia in a conventional war.
Russia has nukes, that's why
NATO would prefer to avoid a nuclear war. Much easier to assist Ukraine in its defence.
If it came down to it NATO would mop the floor with the Russian alliance. That is why Putin is pissing his pants.
I made this, and I now find it relevant to post on most Ukraine-Russia posts
AKA: Shoot and Scoot.
Every Javelin fired is a piece of armour destroyed.
... Did you read the post you're commenting under?
What matters is that the Javelins and AA seem to have mostly neutralized Russia's advanced capability advantage. If Putin has to try to win this based simply on having more conscripts with AKs I don't see happening. This isn't WWII.
1. Conscription isn't widely used anymore in Russia, you're thinking soviet Union
2. Ukraine is currently using forced conscription
3. Manpad AA cant protect an entire air space lol
4. Russia can still level cities if it wishes
5. The Crimea land bridge is where to look
There is still a horrifying possible timeline where Putin drags out a bunch of conventional artillery and starts leveling cities instead of occupying them. That's still a huge failure on Russia's part, but it is something they could do if they have the stomach for it.
The point being, Russia started what was supposed to be a short war win by capability overmatch. That has already failed. Now they're looking at trying to win through attrition.
Thats just your assertion. Russia hasnt set any timeframe. You're not really analysing the situation, you're just saying how you feel. You are too partisan to have a productive discussion on this conflict.
Russia has a view that whatever stops Ukraine joining Nato is a worthwhile conclusion to this war. Be it Ukraine declaring Neutrality, Splitting the country up or leveling it. You dont appreciate how sensitive Russia is to Ukraine's posture towards them.
You’re behind. The US and NATO have already activated their response teams and are sending LOTS of aid to Ukraine. INCLUDING Germany. They’ve already intervened
Lots of AID yes, but not enough to change the course of this war yet. Russia hasnt even fielded most of its power yet. It has barely disrupted communication, power, and other utilities etc I think you dont grasp the situation fully.
It has not disrupted communication much, as they now have separate internet. And it hasn’t fully disrupted power. Spetnaz has been in Kyiv since Feb 18th. They clearly SUCK. Putin is pissed right now lmao.
The EU, Canada, Sweden, Norway, the UK, and Australia are all sending weaponry, jets, and aid. Javelins and Stingers will take a heavy toll on Russian units.
Ukraine has everything 2 gain if they can protract war or just get Russia 2 leave after its failure. Russia has much 2 lose from anything other than from a smooth military operation. This is not smooth. Logistically Russia is already running into problems. 4 days in.
Numbers are not in Russia’s side. 150k in country AT MOST. Ukraine had 200k active, 100k reservists. Then they have mandatory conscription for males 18-60. That’s probably about 10 million men. If even 10% of them end up fighting, that’s a million men. And they’ll be constantly..
…resupplied with javelins, stingers and NLaws. Russia’s best tank commanders and best pilots will go first. Add into that a few million citizens participating by planting mines, IED’s, sharing information about Russian troop movements…and Russia will be in a very precarious..
…position soon enough. And with constant pressure economically making re-armament more difficult.
Time is not on Russia’s side. Every hour Ukraine resists is a down payment on Russia’s failing ability to maintain war operations.
That's a big if. Ukraine cannot arm and maintain 1 million men. You're dreaming up an intoxicating fantasy. If they even remotely tried that they'd use up all their reserves within a week. Ukraine needs to approach this conflict pragmatically and avoid over extension
You'll soon start seeing them leaving indefensible territory to focus on their high value assets like the capital. This is a war and not a movie, war isnt just numbers on a paper. You only win with superior strategy, not simply because of sheer will.
It’s you who is living in a fantasy if you think those numbers wouldn’t matter. And even more laughable if you think that’s not possible. It was 100k mobilized as of yesterday morning since the start of the conflict. That was in 3 days. Even if they kept up the pace of….
…just 5,000 a day, Russia will never be able to match that. Not in Ukraine. And who cares if the are focused on defending key infrastructure, it’s called KEY infrastructure for a reason. That means Russia will have to take it. Good luck with that when a hostile population is…
…reporting every movement your troops make, and are being constantly resupplied with automatic rifles, RPG’s, anti tank weapons, barricading the streets to steer you into ambushes, etc. ask army Rangers what that was like in Mogadishu.
This is all based on your misinformed position. Just because you say numbers doesn’t mean they’ll matter. Ukraines economy isn’t operating and that’s going to hurt the war effort while Russias economy is operating despite the sanctions. Russia simply has more capacity to wage war
The Ukraine economy is small, but still on good terms with most of the global economy.
Before the war, Russia's economy was a little bigger than Spain's and its been cut off, its probably smaller by now.
A key Ukrainian advantage is that - by Putin’s own intent - NATO has interests here. South and western Ukraine borders connect four NATO members, each of whom has bad living memory of Russian (Soviet) occupation, and each of which is willing to channel supplies.
(Not to mention the Black Sea giving access to more NATO supply lines.)
Ukraine probably would not need to depend solely or even primarily on domestic arms production.
A Ukrainian insurgency, should they fall back to that, would have unassailable supply lines.
In light of this I don’t see any way Russia can achieve its aims here unless the current Ukrainian government capitulates, or citizen morale is crushed. None of that looks likely.
The remaining question is how much damage Russia will do before admitting defeat.
"unforeseen economic downturn" coming monday
I'd wager when you have NATO willing to fund you for a proxy war vs Russia, Ukraine's problems are more palatable than Russia's problems. Ukraine has so far received $1Billion in military aid with another $1.4Billion committed. Russia is spending $1Billion/day w/ minimal progress
You can’t fix corruption and chronic underinvestment in the security budget during a time of war. These problems right now are set in stone. The US spent close to $85B arming the Afghan state and they still got steamrolled. Money isn’t a magical solution to system issues
HUGE difference in people of either country. 🤔 I would not compare them.
No that different in levels of corruption
Does Nato really want Ukraine flush with weapons on its border? I highly doubt that. This would flush crime organisation in Europe with weapons.
sure but the international aid faucet is turning on for Ukraine, and Russia is being iced out internationally lol
if they do not occupy, then the puppet govt they install gets euromaidanned, and all the effort was wasted. This was a poorly thought out plan from beginning - a Strategic HUMINT FAIL, fundamentally.
Unforeseen economic downturn like the ruble loosing over 40% of its value over night? I don't think your finger is on the pulse, friend. It was pretty clear they were going to be fucked by sanctions before the invasion started. It was a dumb move.
No like something that hits Oil demand and the Chinese economic machine. Financial crisis level. Russia has close to $700B to weather currency problems. Let’s wait and see how these sanctions perform but currently Russia has a sanctions hardened economy
Except they can't access those funds due to the sanctions on their central bank. True, energy trade still helps them, but nowhere near enough to stop market chaos. China's role is small and won't grow substantially as it would lead to sanctions on them too.
You're underestimating how bad a 41% drop the Ruble's value is. That's just the start. For comparison: The Great Depression started on Black Monday, October 28, 1929, with markets falling 13% in one day then 12% the next day. They bottomed out in 1932 down 89%.
"unforeseen" is doing a lot of work there
An unforeseen economic downturn? It’s here. xe.com/currencycharts…
They knew the sanctions would hurt before hand and they still went ahead to invade. This means they feel like they can handle these problems with the tools they have. Plus this could just be a temporary market reaction. Give this a few months we see
Russian bank doubling the interest rate combined with the HISTORIC high for the ruble… if the “West” just maintains what they’ve already, committed to, hyperinflation and mass scarcity seem inevitable.
Can even Putin survive that?
Nations pursuing strategic national interests as Russia sees Ukraine can suffer though much more. Putin may even pass away tonight, but Russias policy on Ukraine isn’t going to change its course tomorrow because Putin isn’t equals to the Russian state. Do you understand?
I don’t think that the current Russian regime’s understanding of its strategic national interest is necessarily a correct assessment of Russia’s intrinsic national interest. Policy is not absolute reality.
Whether they’re right or wrong doesnt matter because their perception of reality is what they’re acting on now. You don’t have to be right to pursue your objectives, Hitler wasn’t right but he pursed his objective and that changed the 20th century for the west
Godwin is never disappointed. But also, assuming that a post Pootie Tsar Russia will have the same Make Russia Soviet-Era Great Again agenda is beyond the ability of anyone lacking a crystal ball or a time machine.
The Russian ruble is worth less than a roblox dollar. The economic downturn is both forseen and already here.
Give the markets time we see how this will affect russia in the short and medium term. You're making too many conclusions over a market reaction on the first days of trading after the invasion.
It's not fully black and white. Ukraine's existence is best helped by massive materiel help and volunteers from other countries, which will hopefully keep ramping up. But direct NATO intervention would likely end Ukraine's existence, alongside the entire world.
Moving arms through Hungary is not direct NATO intervention though. Direct intervention would be NATO troops and air support moving into Ukraine and firing on Russian targets. Agree that’s risky, moving arms to Ukraine, not as much.
Moving arms through Hungary should be fine, yeah. I thought by NATO helping you were referring to ground troops or a no-fly zone, like a number of others have been demanding. If you were just referring to the Hungary situation, I agree with you.
Hungary seems to think it’s a problem. Not sure why you think they’re wrong
Well, war is influenced by myths, of course, there are antagonistic storytellers who want to weaken an Ukrainian mythos to demoralize them.
#IStandWithUkriane
Ukraine has allies with money.
Russia does not.
How does money help when what you need is a no fly zone?
no one fights a war barefoot and hungry.
Might have been. They have a big ol' net to catch them now if they hold on.
Ukraine will have access to the supply chains of NATO and the EU. There's no way that Russia can compete with that in the long term.
NATO and EU can’t feed an entire country. This war has stopped the economy and people aren’t earning and food isn’t coming in. This will destroy Ukrainian military capacity
You really like Russia. You should get a job at Glavset -- or a raise if you already work there.
You really like Ukraine. You should get a job at Kyiv Post -- or a raise if you already work there.
Bruh they haven’t even tried yet
Russia has not won yet because it has not committed. When do you ever see Invading tankmen casually chatting with passerbys? When Russia commits its full might and power, I guarantee Ukraine will crumble faster than you can shout ,”mummy!”
I used to think Russia had the world's best second-world army, but now I am questioning even that.
Yeah, that sociopath Putin surely loves to be embarassed, so he didn't commit.
They are just overrated.
If he fully commits then he undermines his reason for his special operation. Not to mention everyone in Europe is watching on primetime.
In order to "commit" everything as you say, Russia would have to withdraw forces from the east.
Do you really believe Xi and his expansive Chinese empire would not take advantage of any opportunity to seize undefended lands from Russia?
Vlad just wanted a little taste tester first before committing. Pretty silly thing to suggest.
pretty sure these guys aren't gonna have Putin take their country down the toilet, this is Saint Petersburg.
“Russia” is not committed. Putin is. Whoever does not understand this, does not understand what is happening.
You should go bet your kid’s college fund on that. Let me know how that works out for you.
Your guarantee is null and void... how do you invade a country without provocation? Russian soldiers see Ukraine and ask themselves why they should attack their cousins.
Putin was right saying that Russia and Ukraine share culture, history, and family ties. Special operation can be justified but bloody war cannot. Russia is unable to commit its full force and apparently they never thought they would have to.
Well, question is, who is commited more. Young soldiers, sort of brain washed, from far away rejon, or somebody who is protecting its homeland, mothers, sisters, kids of his/her (lots of women fighting) own.
The only people shouting “mummy” are the boyish Russian conscripts that form a large part of the Russian Army so far.
And you're on the Russian side why exactly?
Russia controls the air and will soon have Kiev completely surrounded. Russia will overtake Kiev in tact with as few casualties as possible.
Only in their state propaganda. They "did" this in the first day.
About casualties, Kharkiv apartment blocks was shelled by cluster rockets 3 hours ago.
Another Kamil thread is here, let me crack open a cold one
Early grey bergamot also works
Doubt it, they’re willing to talk now. But have little to none negotiations currency. They’re loosing, reinforced weapons and supply coming in. Their last coin is the nuclear route, and Putins been crying wolf about it since he’s been in power.
It’s day 6 and they’re advancing from all sides. What exactly are they not prepared for on day 6? Lol
They are running out of diesel and ammo, they have used up all the available BTGs, and they really did not gain anything. Unless Putin pulls another 100K troops out of black hat, difficult to see how they are going to survive in the middle of hostile frozen land.
It’s day 5 they are not running out of diesel and ammo 🤣🤣. I’m not even pro Russian and just have to laugh at the ridiculous things you guys say. And he has 100k troops at the border that aren’t being used.
So this is how it goes: "not even pro Russian" - иди на хуй
I just want liberals to see what they created. They have to see how strong Russia is and how letting our enemies grow without resistance causes situations like this. So no I’m not pro Russian but I’m also anti liberal and their lies. They need to know the truth.
Тебе же сказали - иди на хуй!
Damn Bryant you sound like a сука, relax
There is no Russian nuclear solution. They're surrounded by nuclear submarines, they so much as press the fire button on 1 of those and it's game over. Hundreds of thousands will die elsewhere, millions will die in Russia.
Also the thing is that Russian tanks are not that useful in urban warfare. This was a lesson the US learned in Iraq and Afg. Too many hiding places and awkward angles for handheld anti tank weapons. Restricted quarters makes it hard to use the turret.
Explosive reactive armor is dangerous to your surrounding infantry. US really cut back on armor in cities. And this is why Ukraine let Russia advance and fought in cities. Tanks are strong in the open, vulnerable in the cities.
Russia has to win quickly because occupying territory is very difficult. Especially with Ukraine getting supplies from protected NATO counties next door.
Once the offensive stalls to a stop it will be difficult for Russia to restart it.
The one answer is leveling whole cities as he mentions, just like their anti insurgency. But to do that when Ukraine is winning so much sympathy abroad already is risky.
It will push for intervention actions under banners other than NATO. EU, UN, etc.
Win? How do you win with a tank in a city? Drive it through enough buildings?
Tanks are a force multiplier in the open. They're not in a city. And that is what matters - manpower. And Russia has not brought an enormous advantage in that area.
Exactly correct. As mentioned before, Russia will likely prevail from a purely military perspective. However, they will not have the ability to win their strategic objective long-term.
Sorry but what we see about Ukrainians tanks in 2014 can also apply to the 2022 Russian corrupt army. So how many real mans, tanks, planes has Russia ? Nobody knows.
And that's quite literal. When you have corruption at every level it's incredibly hard to fully account for anything.
Yup, tanks are the modern counterpart of cavalry, not invulnerable death machines.
This is not an accurate assessment of how an ICBM conflict would go Mike.
They have ways round being attacked as soon as they start attacking, have you not watched a single cold war film
What do you mean they can’t be attacked? Do they have something like Israel’s Iron Dome but for nukes?
I understand we can’t take out their nukes cus we don’t know where they are or can’t target them but if they fire we could quickly respond take out russian cities. No?
It isn't seriously for Mr. Putin. He could sacrifice the entire population of the country.
You do not understand the main thing and think that we are dealing with a healthy person. The problem is that he can be terminally ill and drag everyone along with him. Remember the delightful "they will die immediately, and we will go to Paradise." He is 70 already.
The same. Last resort.
Hundreds of Millions will die elsewhere if millions die in Russia
As Putin said, “without Russia you don’t need the world” Doesn’t sound like somebody who would have much concern with decimating large parts of the planet?
Betcha china is egging him on
You can't add nuclear to the equation dawg... nuclear is a zero sum game where we all lose. Nuclear is a deterrence that guarantees Putin he won't be invaded and removed from power. Nuclear is a deterrence that guarantees no one will use Nukes. This is an invalid premise.
Tank advantage without proper infantry is just tin cans with the enemy hoarding on anti-tank missiles.
Tank advantage without the fuel to run them just gives the enemy a chance to destroy expensive equipment.
Tanks are useless in Kyiv.
Russia can’t hold significant territory in Ukraine. They simply can’t recruit enough and the morale is very low.
This war will cause serious damage but won’t be “won”.
Maybe enough for Putin’s goals if the goals include becoming a big North Korea and afterwards serving China.
At this rate, Ukraine is going to have 50 anti-tank missiles for each Russian tank. Those are probably the least of their worries.
Informative and interesting thread. Thank you. The west has a habit of overrating the Russian Army.
Served during the cold war years and this is absolutely true. Their equipment back then was 15 to 20 years behind the west in technology.
Still using the T72’s which were already dated during the cold war…
and also a habit of underrating :)
How else do you get more funding from Congress? Com’on man
Attacking is very hard compared to defending. This is forgot when comparing hardware.
We know what "the Federation" did not prepare: morale and organization.
so do you get your payment from Vlad in rubles or bitcoin?
I hope in rubles since between friday and tomorrow it lost 50% on exchange rate to $
they have been preparing for 8 years and ran out of gas on Day 3.
I'm unimpressed.
VDV prepared for 8 years to accidentally parachute 50 men into the sea and drown them all 🤣
At least they got a cool music video out of that preparation
The only thing Russia is ahead in is the race to the bottom. Lookout North Korea there is a new contender!
5D strategy of crapping your pants
We can literally see what they are preparing on the ground. Like, in photos and video.
иди на хуй
The war is over. The ruble is getting crushed by the sanctions. Putin's done.
Do you have any substantial disagreement with any part of the analysis or do you just do cheerleading?
Prepared very poorly then
Yup. 7D chess and 10 steps ahead.
And then keeping their currency reserves in Western banks.
Maybe should've given it 9?
Then why have they not taken a single major city yet? Why do they not appear to have achieved air superiority?
Why didn't the supposedly oppressed masses of Ukraine suffering under their supposed Western puppet government welcome their liberation by the invading Russian forces?
Deserves a report and a block.
Who brought the clown show?
(and 2,949 other replies)