Convopage
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This is a brief guide for selected threads. It will include materials on the current war and briefs useful for prognosing the future of the region once the war is over 🧵
265 replies and sub-replies as of Mar 21 2022
1. Why Russia will lose this war?
TL;DR Russian army is overrated, Ukrainian army underrated. Putin expected Ukrainians to surrender. Thus he sent only one echelon of troops, that's not a proper Blitzkrieg. He didn't expect any resistance and thus failed
Why Russia will lose this war?
Much of the "realist" discourse is about accepting Putin's victory, cuz it's *guaranteed*. But how do we know it is?
I'll argue that analysts 1) overrate Russian army 2) underrate Ukrainian one 3) misunderstand Russian strategy & political goals🧵
2. Information Warfare
TL;DR Ukraine is waging the info war controlling the supply of *accurate* data. Meanwhile Russian efforts focus on portraying Putin as alpha. But that's a psyop to break resistance. In fact he's timid, risk averse, ignore the psyop
Let's discuss the informational dimension of this war. Many complain about "propaganda" which distorts its image. Bad take. Propaganda affects public opinion which is only one aspect of what's happening. Let me introduce a better, more comprehensive term - *information warfare*🧵
3. Kadyrov's kingdom
TL;DR Brief on Kadyrov's regime and its role in modern Russia as the supplier of Putin's psyop troops. Includes a short overview of Chechen history, the origins of Kadyrov's rise + his main three henchmen: Delimkhanov, Lord, Patriot
News about 10 000 Chechen troops leaving to Ukraine alarmed many. And yet, one must know context to understand its meaning. Many assume that after Putin's victory Chechnya became just part of Russia and thus Chechen troops are just Russian regulars of Chechen origin. Not quite🧵
4. "Ukrainian Nazism" - Putin's take
TL;DR As long as ppl believed in Communism Kremlin legitimised its rule as the path to it. After nobody believed they started legitimising through WWII. Meanwhile real history of Soviet-Nazi collaboration is forgotten
Let's discuss Putin speech. He declared Ukrainians to be "Neonazis" and promised to "denazify" them. Indeed the "Nazi" character of Ukrainian statehood and identity has long been a central thesis of Russian propaganda. Let's discuss why and how it reflects ideology of Putinism🧵
5. How Putin came to power
TL;DR Putin initially built his reputation and popularity through a Special Operations disguised as a small victorious war. He repeated this little trick every time his image waned. In Ukraine he just scaled up, mistakenly
3 theses on the Russian-Ukrainian war:
1. Putin's decision to start the war on Ukraine isn't foreign policy. It's domestic one. Putin first consolidated his power through the war in 1999-2000 and it worked. So he repeated this trick every time his popularity started waning🧵
6. FSB: State Security as the core of Putin's regime
TL;DR How the party regime of the USSR evolved to the state security regime of Russian Federation and how latter is different from the former. It's the mafia state, not the ideologues state
That's Putin celebrating the Day of State Security Worker. Indeed, the domination of State Security "the new nobility" over all other institutions is a particular feature of Putin's regime. Which hadn't been the case in USSR. State security rule is the major innovation of Putin🧵
7. Valentina Matvienko: a sociological portrait of Putin's elite
TL;DR History of Russian ruling class through a biography of one single functionary Valentina Matvienko. The only woman in Security Council. What kind of people they are, how they behave
Here you see a photo of extraordinary meeting of Russian Security Council on Ukraine. Who are these people? I'd argue their biographies give a good glimpse into the structure of Russian power. Let's start with the only woman here - Valentina Matvienko on he right (a short 🧵)
8. Isn't Ukraine just a separatist Russian province?
TL;DR A brief on Ukrainian history. What factors defines it, and how it has been different from Russia long before the Muscovite expansion
Isn't Ukraine just a separatist Russian province? Many foreigners ask themselves this question. The same way many Eastern Slavs think that all British Isles are just England. And yet, dynamics of Russian-Ukrainian relations are different from the dynamics of Anglo-Celtic ones🧵
9. Ukrainian Geography
…
TL;DR Geographic factors that shaped the history and the present of Ukraine. Steppe, rivers, Crimean appendix. The East vs West problem
Now let's cover the Ukrainian geography. First, as we can see, Ukraine is a very flat country. It has mountains only in the very west, in Carpathians, and in the very south, on the southern cost of Crimea. The rest of the country is flat as a pancake. What does it mean? 🧵
10. A crash introduction into ethnopolitical situation in Ukraine
TL;DR Why you should not blindly trust the ethnic maps of Ukraine and how to interpret them correctly. Language =/= identity. Brief history of the country and its interactions with Russia
A crash introduction to the ethnopolitical situation in Ukraine 🧵
People know that Ukraine is divided to Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking areas. That's correct. And yet, people assume that political allegiances match up with ethnoligustic ones. That's wrong.
11. Russian demography
TL;DR Depopulation and migration reshapes Russia. The entire country collapses into two old imperial agglomerations of Moscow and St Petersburg and one new - of Krasnodar. New centre of gravity in the south gonna change a lot
Let's talk about Russian demography. As you see vast spaces in Siberia & European Russia are depopulating. There are two factors behind. First, low fertility. The only places with natural growth are Muslim areas of Caucasus, Idel-Ural and clusters of indigenous Siberians (thread)
12. Russian army
TL;DR Uneasy relations of Kremlin with generals. In peacetime army is easily controlled through procedures. But in the war procedural power wanes, generals become proud and independent. Thus you gonna kill them en masse after each war
Most of so called foreign policy is domestic policy by other means. For this reason I think Putin is reluctant to start a full scale invasion of Ukraine. During such a war professional military would get too much power and authority. Which might be Kremlin's biggest fear (🧵)
13. Why Putin is afraid of Ukraine so much
TL;DR Putin is afraid of Ukraine because it's East Slavic country and thus relatable to Russians. Russians compare themselves with Ukrainians and can get wrong ideas looking at them. So Ukraine must be crushed
Many think Putin aims to annex Ukraine. I find that implausible. That's based on assumption that Putin is primarily concerned with foreign policy. But what if his main concern is domestic one? What if the real goal is to keep Ukraine a failed state as an example to the Russians?
14. Russian assabiyahs
…
TL;DR An interpretation of Russian imperial history 1698 till now through the rise and demise of three assabiyahs: the Praetorians, the Monarchy and the Party
Interpreting Russian political dynamics through the concept of assabiyah may not be widely-established but is quite well-known tradition in Russia
Some distinguish 3 political regimes with 3 different assabiyahs
1698 - 1825 Praetorians
1825 - 1917 Monarchy
1917 - now Party
15. The Horde and Russian Imperiogenesis
TL;DR It's BS that Russia picked up absolutist practices from the Horde. It's correct though that the Horde actively built Muscovite power and Tatars inside Muscovy were instrumental in building absolutist rule
Political institutions of the Golden Horde (thread)
Imperiogenesis argument is well known in Russia. Some cheer the Horde for laying foundations of vast empire. Others lament the orientalisation of Russia and adoption of 'Asian despotism'. But how did the Horde itself look like?
To be continued. I'll be putting longreads on my Substack, see - "How did Russia got so big", on the political economy of Russian imperial expansion
Next threads will cover sleeping institutions in Russia: federalism, autonomies and parliamentarianism
kamilkazani2.substack.com/p/how-did-russ…
16. Why honour matters
TL;DR "Moderation" out of fear of nukes is insane. Some nuke owners are malevolent. If they see that scaring u to get concessions works, they'll 100% repeat this trick scaling up. That's how u got WWII and how u'll get nuclear war
The War in Ukraine in American context
In such a polarised country as the U.S., Russian invasion of Ukraine was immediately weaponised by the opposing political forces and became a basis for mutual accusations. Some of these accusations sound very reasonable 🧵
17. Russian parliamentarism
TL;DR Putinism = supreme leader rules + controlled parliament rubberstamps. To keep parliament under control you need a plug, a pseudo party called "United Russia". The only real parliamentary dissent comes from the Communists
I think it's time to do a series of threads on Russian sleeping institutions. I'll start with political parties and parliamentarism. Let's take a glance on how did Russians living abroad vote during parliamentary elections of 2021. Blue - United Russia (Putin), Red - Communists🧵
18. VDV: Why Russia lost this war
TL;DR "Elite" paratroopers are glorified riot police. They were used as airborne only in Hungary 1956 and Czechoslovakia 1968. In Ukraine 2022 they expected to route a mutiny but faced a regular army and were destroyed
How is the war in Ukraine going? Today they confirmed the death of Russian General Major Suhovetsky. He's unsurprisingly a paratrooper. So let's discuss the role of paratroopers in Russian military doctrine. That'll shed a light on the course of this war and why Russia lost it🧵
not true
Thank you for the profound analysis and for giving us hope #StandWithUkraine️
This lie has already been debunked. You are spreading disinfo
Bravo Ukraina!!!!
Fake news, there is no conformation about it except hacked account
amazing threads! thanks
Ręce Precz od Ukrainy ty Bandyta Putin.
But this does not explain why in the South the VDV, along with all other units, performed better than their counterparts in the north.
what do you think of this analysis?
I can’t comment on Ukraine at the moment, I’m afraid. Work constraints!
👍👍👍👏👏👏🙌👏👏👏
Thank you so much for these very excellent informative threads.
Funny, I often read that the Russian Communist Party is still... quite stalinist... and had kinda let Putin do whatever he wanted.
Also, off-topic, that map is especially funny when you misread it as a map of right-wing countries VS communist countries.
My goodness you ARE outstandingly, astoundingly analytically prolific !!! 👍👍👍👍👍👍
What about Russian federalism, a lot of republics and ethnicities have been kept on side by economic growth and local exceptionalism, can that last?
I bet the ones who voted for Putinism, might regret this big times right now!
man your threads are frickin brilliant. thx.
Mr Galeev
Do you even sleep?
You are the one that makes Twitter worth reading
Also recommended @RadioFreeTom @MarkHertling @IAPonomarenko @Osinttechnical @oryxspioenkop
2) For those slow in getting it: threatening with a nuclear strike is not deterrence. It is a threat. A threat needs to be treated as an attack.
Great stuff. Subscribed.
Very good sociological thread about the concept of honor! Thanks for this piece! So make a long story short: if the west doesn’t want to be a cock they need at least secure the sky. If they don’t they will suffer later from nuclear belarus and russia!? Did i got it right?
Hey, Kamil, would like to write a thread about Yugoslavia vs NATO
please unroll
Honor matters but honor part of surviving in an honor culture is not putting other people in a position where they can only save their honor by murdering you.
Sanctions and arming Ukraine do not put Putin in that position. Taking out air defenses on Russian soil OTOH...
Who are you ? Anyone knows ? Converting that anxious energy into learning about Russia thanks to those threads was really helpful. But can't help and be a bit skeptical when you randomly find someone on twitter.
Hi, I'm from the U.K., are there any books you would recommend reading on the many Tweets that you have written in the last 48 hours? History of Chechnya, the creation of Russia as a country, the history of Russia? Thanks.
1) George Soros and his organisations (Open society foundation, The International Renaissance Foundation) was deep involved in Ukraine revolution, after that the new president Petr Poroshenko awards George Soros with "Order of Freedom" kyivpost.com/article/conten… #UkraineRussiaWar
And his organisations continue they influence on Ukraine media and after the revolution, by forming the opinion they want, for exemple the StopFake site that claiming to fight propaganda, but realy just do propaganda.
In the begining when they was just created, they was have Soros "Renaissance Foundation" mark in the down of the site page, now dont have it, but you still can see the foundation mention on the donor list on the last second of this 2017 year site report video
issuu.com/______________… or here down in the "about us" page stopfake.org/en/about-us/ Then (around 2014) they was theirs only financiers and basically founders, now they writing that the site was founded by some students bla bla bla...
Річний звіт Stopfake.org
Київ 2016/2017
issuu.com
Interesting fact that facebook hired them to they decide what is "true" and what is not nytimes.com/2020/07/26/wor…
#UkraineRussiaWar
Fighting False News in Ukraine, Facebook Fact Checkers Tread a Blurry Line (Published 2020)
Facebook hired a Ukrainian group battling Russian disinformation to flag misleading posts. But critics say the fact checkers’ work veers into activism.
nytimes.com
2) Ukraine is rich agro country, wanted by big monopoly agro companies, like Monsanto, the GMO products maker, well knowing from they very human cancerogenic and soil ruining Roundup chemical youtube.com/watch?v=cG0G0J… , which they use on their seeds.
#UkraineRussiaWar
Monsanto Ordered To Pay $289 Million In Roundup Cancer Trial | TODAY
A jury in San Francisco found biochemical giant Monsanto liable for former school groundskeeper Dewayne Johnson’s terminal cancer, due to his constant use of...
youtube.com
After 2014 revolution, Monsanto make investments and get more land in Ukraine kyivpost.com/business/bayer…
George Soros is a major shareholder of Monsanto (or was, bcs company was selled to Bayern corporation some time ago).
#UkraineRussiaWar
4) When in 2014 after West (US and EU) backed revolution, Poroshenko become new president of Ukraine, he past his business (big chocolate company) to management of Rothschilds en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/… #UkraineRussiaWar
Rothschild Trust confirms Poroshenko blind trust deed for Roshen
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has appointed Rothschild Trust as trustee in a blind trust to hold his shares in Roshen Confectionary Corporation.
en.interfax.com.ua
5) After the revolution, Biden son become director in ukranian gas company
Vice President Joe Biden's son joins Ukraine gas company
What in the World: A vice presidential son's business move raises concern, charges of Chinese "brazen aggression" toward Vietnam, and justice for Israel's Ehud Olmert.
bbc.com
Putin is here
Great post
Hey, Kamil, would like to write a thread about Yugoslavia vs NATO
Another great write-up!
Corrections: "living" should be "leaving". Twice. 😉
Did you ever continue this thread? It seems to stop mid-19th Century? V. Interesting!
Hey where's the follow-up to that thread? It's a fascinating read.
Like @nntaleb says:
"It felt like Russia but w/FREEDOM."
Why am I interested abt Ukraine? Visited numerous times, last y spent time w/Parliament members discussing risks & systems. Drank with Ukrainians (a lot), met the Zelinskys, vis. churches. Russians speakers are like Swiss Germans to the Germans.
It felt like Russia but w/FREEDOM.
The irony of TL;DR on twitter :)
For the same reason, IMHO, Xi Jingping fears Taïwan, because it's a Chinese culture country. Chinese can compare themselves with Taiwanese and can get wrong ideas looking at them (such as establishing freedom and democracy). So Taiwan must be crushed...
Ukraine is a country that half its adult population has abandoned. The cheap labor in Europe isn't Russian but Ukrainian, from plumbers to hookers. I don't think Russia is afraid of that comparison.
would be crazy if r*ss*a’s military performance has been sandbagged by political direction
That map makes me laugh so much as a French.
unroll
The war will soon make people lose their families.
We never did find out what happened with Valentina Matvienko ...
Please write a book on this
Information warfare failed to take into account the war going viral. Social media is black swan that Putin didn't expect.
twitter.com/rorynotsorry/s…
How does this assessment of him as timid, risk averse align with your thread on dove vs. hawk ideology? What am I missing?
Will this much desired loss happen any time soon and most importantly, without nuclear involvement??
in 10hours
This matches my spectator view. twitter.com/rorynotsorry/s…
My observation is that Russia's initial attack was judged as incompetent and underwhelming by foreign intel... so there is no more fear of Russia.
If Russia wanted to demonstrate their might... they are failing miserably.
If US had months of build up... we would of rolled in.
A pyrrhic victory for #Ukraine at best, don't think there is much value after Russia destroys most of its industry. Don't think there is much excitement in EU of having to finance another Greece
Nice propaganda. Keep going your BS. Russia is already winning the war.
Hey Kamil, as you tell Russia will lose this war, interested to hear your opinion on this
World War III Beginning Stages Now | Armstrong Economics
I have been warning the West should not mess with Putin. It is so obvious that the West has made the same fatal mistake as that of Rome. It has weakened its economy with COVID and it is so obsessed with trying to force Russia and China to comply with their Climate Change directives set
armstrongeconomics.com
Honestly, how long do you think it takes for an occupation or for a war to take its course? It hasn't even been a week.
(No comment)
Let's make a 1$ bet, Russia will win!!
4/ Morality-free Putin needs an off-ramp even more than the West does. Specifically, he needs a “win” in Ukraine, because otherwise his ability to remain as Russia’s dictator will be in doubt. PUTIN CAN SUCCESSFULLY SPIN THE INVASION AS A VICTORY ONLY IF HE ENDS IT SOON.
If there is a war that Russia is not going to lose it is this war with Ukraine... 👨🦽👨🦽👨🦽👨🦽👨🦽👨🦽👨🦽
lost u at putin didnt expect any resistance. U think hes an amateur?
Please upload onto a web or blog
in 3 hours
in 6 hours.
Thank you for this!
It would be great if you could upload all of your texts on Medium or Substack though
in 4 hours.
Some ask that you post it on a website or blog so they can read it better. I say that you publish books on those topics and others. I would love to read those books.
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in 2 hours.
Read RANE Worldview's article, "The Potential Outcomes of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion" for insight into what could happen.
The Potential Outcomes of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion | RANE
There are several courses of action Moscow could take in the coming weeks, including installing a new Ukrainian regime or partitioning the country in some fashion.
worldview.stratfor.com
👏 thanks!
in 2hours
THANK YOU
This is incredibly enlightinging. Thank you Kamil!
I won't be short of reading material for the next few days. Thank you for your hard work.
in 24 hours
Lo siento, no entendí nada 😐
Fantastic! Best material I've seen so far to explain the ongoing war and overall background.
(No comment)
Is NATO included?
Absolutely great read.
The best piece of propaganda written during these 5 days of war, congrats :)
Massive, dude. Tremendous perspective.
I hope @PulitzerPrizes @pulitzercenter is watching this. Price worthy tbh.
In your thread describing why Russia will not win this war, you based your information on only Russia related points. What happens when Belarus invades? Could you explain your take on how the tide of battle could turn?
Truly a threadnaught.
Why now? Why is Putin militarily attacking all of Ukraine in 2022 and not last year or next year?
Did you find out by now? I still wonder myself
Bit late to reply as to why now? #ukraine economy+military getting stronger as #Putin popularity declining. Contray to @kamilkazani Putin's July 2021 article shows a deep seated neo-fascism based on interwar Ivan Ilyin. Encouraging signals from Xi regime? purposewithoutborders.org/2022/02/why-pu…
My argument regarding Russia's behavior:
1) Moscow switched from deterrence to compellence
2) The key issue is Moscow believes Kyiv will remain hostile and is increasing its defensive capabilities
3) the costs of inaction are greater than an escalation
Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute
How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various
fpri.org
You Sir will be held accountable when my boss asks about the drop in my work efficiency :)
I found this article in wechat! someone translate it into chinese. the wechat ID：宪法与公共治理
in a week
in 8 days
Very wishful thread.
incredible work! I've been following and sharing your threads in order to understand and help others understand what is going on below the surface. All this should be published in a book! At least digital. Thank you for letting us understand all this
The Rubicon has been crossed days ago. The entire West and Russia is at war, whether the West has been able to fully digest that or not. It is only a matter of time as to when NATO will start running sorties inside Ukraine (and maybe Belarus) to annihilate Russian columns.
(No comment)
Very good job! Congrats!
Is it possible that NATO or the Americans just dragged Putin into this mess? Just because he is who he is?
(No comment)
Superb threads. Fascinating. Thank you. Mr Galeev, I don't mean to patronise or nitpick but, for the avoidance of doubt, you need to change the Twitter address on your header to @TheWilsonCenter
This is another level of propaganda come on, russia will not lose because ukraine and the US is saying so, russia will win and crush ukraine you all say some bs while it was only few days ago, unless NATO intervene ukraine will submit to putin.
Thank you very much for sharing all this information, well worth the read, very interesting.
Hi! Can you send me a message? I’m a journalist for CNN and I would love to talk to you.
Well done
I love the way you write, simple and clear, really insightful. Thank you
(No comment)
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I wish this was a book :) would read it 100%
Hello. My name is Yaroslav. Suffered from the Russian war in my country Ukraine. I am looking for a remote job. I will be glad of any work for any money. Before the start of the war, he headed the sales department for new cars.Thank you for not being indifferent
These threads are all fantastic to read. Thank you!
this is awesome
Very interesting. Thx
History is great.
Hi @kamilkazani
Could I have permission to repost your Russia-war threads on hive.blog?
I will give full credit and I can forward all monetization rewards to you by creating an account and sending you the keys by private message, if you would be ok with it.
#Hive.io
Communities without borders. A social network owned and operated by its users, powered by Hive.
hive.blog
am glad you're on our side, and I on yours. Please stay well; your insight 'n voice essential.
I'd just like to take a moment to say I've been going through each of your threads, and they're fascinating, informative, and well written. Thank you for taking the time to share your perspective. You're one of my favorite accounts on Twitter now
Totally agree, Matthew.
Likewise. She is amazing.
Western Europe's fear of WW2 created the inevitability of WW2. Same is true now. Stop Putin now, or he'll be back, stronger and more lethal. NATO has constructed a new Maginot Line. It'll work as well as the last one.
------ Extrait du Discours du président #Putin non censuré et non coupé dans une analyse rhétorique 🥲 (yako) des situation précédente
Sans oublier la traduction parfaite 😮💨😮💨😮💨
Je vous laisse l'écouter
#UkraineWar
#Russian
#PutinWarCrimes
#WW3
#UkraineRussianWar
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This is the One Thread to inform them all
Very useful, thanks!
One thread to rule them all:
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Outstanding.
in 3 hours
Very informative threads! Could you please do one about Russia's involvement in Syria?
now do why the West got it soooooo wrong!
(PS. I love these threads. I wish history was always taught this way. )
Hi dear, i am impressed with your research.
Can you recommend some good books about strategy, geography and war. Any books for making me good in analysis.
Kamil, you analyses are brilliant and really outstanding. Thanks
fantastic threads on Russ history
hello Mr. Galeev. I really much appreciate all your insights and threads. I have one remark on my own. I believe Putin knows how democracy works but he never lived in one. do you think it might add up to the state of mind he lives in his whole life?
Genuinely amazing threads, thanks
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Theseus en Ariadne, Crispijn van de Passe (I), 1602 - 1607, Rijksmuseum, Amsterdam
Atte. Wilson Center think thank
Daaaaamn! 👇👇👇
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These threads are fascinating.
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Hello, you can read it here: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498377… Have a good day. 🤖
Thread by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
@kamilkazani: Thread of threads This is a brief guide for selected threads. It will include materials on the current war and briefs useful for prognosing the future of the region once the war is over 🧵...…
threadreaderapp.com
Wow…! I am relatively new here on Twitter and so far it seems to be the best way to get basically any information…where does Wiki go? Thank you for the best thread about threads I’ve ever re(a)d! ✨
Please, tell your audience your putting a book together, Sir. That would be fascinating.
Just a superb synoptic history of Russian foreign policy for nearly 100 years. It puts together all the bits and pieces of Russian history I’ve learned over 50 yrs. Like solving a jigsaw puzzle. Teacher s will love this! Outstanding job!