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How sanctions are killing Russia? Russia's falling. Old sanctions of 2014 sabotaged development of new innovative weaponry. New sanctions of 2022 are undermining Russian military efforts, destroying its technological chains and communications lines, thus breaking country apart🧵
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Western analysts greatly overestimate the robustness of Russia. Russians themselves are now talking about the imminent end of this state. Consider a Peskov's slip of tongue: "Special Operation launched to get rid of Russia"
End of Russia - that's what is on the table right now. Consider this talk show of Solovyov - top Putin's propagandist. Their point is - *any* treaty Russia signs with Ukraine will mark its defeat. That gonna be beginning of the end, not of Putin's regime but of Russian state
Medinsky, Putin's negotiator in Ukraine, claims that "the very existence of Russia is on stake now". Well, then the question arises - how did these guys put Russia on stake? Is it compulsive gambling disorder or what?
Well, they were sure of Russian victory. We have absolute military superiority and can easily crush Ukraine. We may not invade, but if we do, we'll 100% win. This was based on assumption about the invincibility of Russian army. Compare vibe of Russian TV in late February and now
The assumption that Russia gonna win was based on three elements. First, on the mythos of WWII. They conveniently forgot that in WWII Russia fought on the side of greatest economic power and now it's fighting against. See Soviet soldiers on American Studebakers
Many talk of Serdyukov's military reforms. However, efficiency-maxer Serdyukov made interest groups angry and was fired. His successor Shoygu was a court-maxer and PR-maxer more interested in building his personality cult than the army. His flatterers even portray him as Subedei
Many talk of Syrian war, where Russia got "so much experience" proving its fighting capacity. Putin believed in it. Russian generals believed in it. Western "expers" believed in it. Only Russian soldiers didn't. Consider this interview with a Wagner mercenary who fought in Syria
On February 26 Wagner mercenary debunked a myth of "real combat experience" Russian army got in Syria. Aviation got a real experience, air defense too. But the land troops didn't. Those who expect a victorious march through Ukraine are wrong. Ukraine got much stronger since 2015
Other Russian military sources which I'm not gonna quote even argued that Syrian experience was negative for Russian army. For example, much of their role was convoying Syrian and Irani supply caravans through a flar desert where it's difficult to set up an ambush unnoticed
In Syria Russians learnt that convoying caravans is easy. Now they try to repeat this Syrian experience in Ukraine. Being used to convoying caravans through desert, they now convoy them through forests or residential areas. There they get into ambushes and are exterminated
That's why Russian military are so pessimistic about their perspective in Ukraine. Consider Strelkov. For 29 days Russia didn't achieve strategic success on any directions "My worst fears came true, we get involved into a long, bloody, and very dangerous war"
That's why Russia is losing so many generals. Why are they even being present on frontline? Because Russia is losing and Putin's knows it. He's furious and sending his generals to the frontline to take direct control in order to improve the situation. And there they get killed
Putin launched a war, expecting an immediate victory. Russian propaganda leaflets literally boasted that Kyiv gonna be captured in one day. Yes, that's propaganda. But it reflected a widespread Russian conviction that Ukrainians wouldn't resist
What consuequences will it bring for Russia? Western analysts exaggerate how robust Russia is. Consider this recent article by Nial Fergusson. I think he's wrong. Putin won't be able to reach a result that Russian people will view as a victory. Any treaty will mark Russian defeat
That's why smarter ones of the Russian elite are already trying to get off the sinking ship. Here is Chubays cashing out at an ATM in an Istanbul airport. Chubays is *the* major architect of modern Russia and he's running away
In 1990s a St Petersburg liberal economist Chubays designed Russian privatization. He purposefully organised it in a most shady and non-transparent way to quickly create lots of rich people owing everything to the regime. That's how oligarchs fortunes were created
By the late 1990s crony "systemic liberals" like Chubays got tired of democracy. They didn't want parliamentarian, didn't want public politics. They wanted a Tsar who'll defend them from the public opinion (which hated them). So they chose Putin and boosted him out of nothing
In 2010s Chubays turned to Russian ethnonationalism. He funded nationalist media such as "Sputnik and Pogrom" who advocated building the "Russia for Russians" in these borders. Chubays is personally responsible for building oligarchy, Putinism and jingoist delusions in Russia
There is hardly any other living person who bears so much responsibility for what is happening in Russia now than Chubays. He created oligarchy, promoted Putin to power, boosted Russian ethnonationalism. He was all powerful and now he ran away. Because he knows Russia is over
Well, Chubays made a good decision - run while you still can. MPs from the United Russia ruling party already can't leave the country without permission. Only smarter ones who escaped before the prohibition are now safe abroad, like Milonov. Others are trapped in Moscow
Now let's finally outline a scenario of collapse. First, sanctions will destroy its technological and supply chains. Many believe in self-sufficiency of Russia. But Russia is not autarkic. It's not an evil empire but a Trade Federation totally dependent on technological import
Machinery is the first victim of sanctions. It's using foreign components on all levels from microchips to bearings. Thus sanctions are destroying: 1. Military industry 2. Transport and communication lines 3. Production of consumer goods Thus they're breaing Russia apart
Sanctions won't make Putin back off. They won't make Russian people rebel. That'd be a collective action of a huge scale which isn't gonna happen. They will undermine Russian military efforts and incentivize a much smaller scale, easier to do collective action - local separatism
Let's start with military industry. Counterintuitive it may sound, it is *especially* import dependent. Why? Well, because it's relatively complex. For example, it is the main consumer of precision manufacturing industrial machines in Russia - buying over 80% of these machines
Annexation of Crimea was a major blow on Russian military industry. As Sverdlovsk Oblast minister of industry Sergey Perestorin admitted, Ural plants, including tank producing ones, started having problems with components supply immediately after 2014
Thus new types of Russian weaponry, for example, the Armata tank were never mass produced. Mass production was supposed to commence in 2015 but in 2022 it still didn't, because of the sanctions. Electronic components import, transmissions import, everything sopped after Crimean
There's another aspect of the problem. It seems Russia lost many technological competences and capacities it used to have under the USSR. In the USSR a job of engineer was prestigous and highly paid. Military engineers were kings. But now they're losers with no respect or salary
As a result construction bureaus and engineering institutions didn't get new competent engineers. Some would come after a college but than had to leave, because they had to feed their families. Average age of an engineer in tank industry is now around 55-60 years
That means that while old engineers were dying and retiring, too few capable youngsters came to learn from them. So many competences of old engineers died with them. As then deputy minister of defense Makarov pointed out Russia lost Soviet technologies of producing a tank barrel
No wonder that all the production on Uralvagonzavod, the only producer of tanks in Russia, is now stopped. Old sanctions introduced in 2014 didn't allow to develop new innovative tanks. New sanctions of 2022 don't allow to build any tanks at all
Russian military industry is fully reliant on Western equipment and components. Consider Motovilihinskie Zavody - the major producer of MLRS and artillety systems in Russia. As you see, they are using a turn-mill industrial machine of an Italian company Tacchi Giacomo e Figli SpA
Consider an interview with a CEO of Baltic Industrial Company that supplies Russian military plants. We don't produce industrial machines, bearings, ball screws, spindles. Yeah, Russia can produce lots of "cool" weaponry. But it will fall because it can't produce any boring stuff
Non military industry is dying, too. Car and vehicles plants are stopping for the lack of details and components. They are laying off their workers. Of course some try to find solutions and built new vehicles "from Russian components". Sounds good doesn't work
See this order of Yekaterinburg police. Policemen are not allowed to use their foreign produced cars anymorebecause under the sanction regime they can't re repaired. There are no components for that
Another victim is the railways. Russia switched its railroad cars production from the roller bearings to the cassette bearings. That's more efficient, but all 3 cassette bearing producing plants in Russia are both foreign owned and import dependent. Railways gonna have problems
The railways are the main carcass keeping the country together. Unlike North America they are crucially important not only for transporting goods, but also the people. Most of Russian autoroutes are horrible. It's the railways that connect this country. Soon they'll be disrupted
Russian airlines are disrupting right now. Russia isn't getting new components for its Boeings and Airbuses, won't be able to maintain them. That's why Pobeda airline for example gonna reduce its fleet by 40%. There are so few details that you can't keep all the planes working
Yes, Russia has its own aircraft industry. But the aircraft factories are working on foreign components, too. Rostov aircraft plant closed for the lack of import, so Russian-produced Ан-24 and Ан-26 planes gonna be impossible to repair. They'll function for 5-6 months the most
Consider this interview where a minister and his aides aides discussing that they won't be able to repair the stolen planes abroad. Yeah, they'll try to do it in Russia. Good luck repairing them with the import of components stopped
Third aspect of Russian fall will be the decrease of supply in literally all consumer goods. Mutually exclusive collectively exhaustive, there are two options: prices can rise or there will be deficit. At this point both phenomena take place. People are shocked by new prices
There's of course a deficit in consumer goods, like sugar. You can see lots of videos of people shouting, fighting, arguing over this precious deficit good
As sugar becomes deficit, incentives to steal and stock it rise exponentially. Here you supermarket workers stealing sugar from its stocks and loading into a car trunk. A woman is commenting: "That's why they don't have sugar on shelves"
Many will try to enrich on sugar trade. Here a man got arrested for selling a 50kg sack with sugar for above market price. The government is already fighting against the profiteering. Such things will only increase
As you see Russian supermarkets are already restricting the purchases of "socially important goods". Too many try to buy as much as possible to stock it and create the shortage
Now let's think in higher orders. People trying to stock as much as possible is indeed exacerbating the existing deficit. But the thing is - regions and towns *are doing the same*. It's not individuals stocking sugar that will kill Russia, it's that governors are doing the same
When we think about Russian state we are usually operating in dichotomy Putin vs People. Will people support their leader? Will they rebel? They won't but it's irrelevant. The state is not homogenous. Putin can ignore sanctions but his subordinates can't
Yes, the core electorate of Putin, is standing by their President and will stand by the end. Putin is sacred, they're not gonna blame him for anything. Whom they're gonna blame for their problems, for the lack of food? A corrupt mayor and governor of course
I am not joking. Lots of Putin's supporters are fully supporting Z-invasion. They're also already suffering from the economic problems. Whom they're gonna blame? The governor, that corrupt scum, guilty of everything. Putin is sacred but governor is not
This Russian political culture makes position of regional authorities unbearable. Putin is sacred, innocent, unaccountable. That's the local authority who's responsible for the quality of life. The life quality is deteriorating because of Putin, but governor will be blamed
Now what they're gonna do? Some are trying to encourage return to subsistence farming. Sounds good, doesn't work. Indeed, in the past Russians survived economic crises via their dachas and private gardens. But that culture is gone. Boomers are the last generation who could do it
Subsistence farming is extremely unproductive. It's also extremely laborious and time consuming. It also requires competences that the youngsters simply lack. In the good economy expensive oil years they never learnt how to garden from their babushka and now won't learn quickly
The current economic crises is unique in Russian history. First of all, it's now uniquely old. During the previous crises it was much, much younger. Even more importantly, it is the first crisis that happened *after* most of population forgot how to do subsistence farming
Russian economic situation is awful. It's a catastrophe which local authorities will be blamed for. What they're gonna do? Stock up. Stock as much as possible. That's already happening. Stavropol doesn't have sugar shortage. Why? They don't allow exporting it to other regions
That will be the major factor of Russian collapse. It's not that regional authorities will suddenly declare independence. They won't, at least for now. It's that they will act in the best interest of their regions. Because if a catastrophe happens there, they'll be blamed for it
In acting in the best interest of their regions under the deficit of literally everything they'll inevitably stock up, thus breaking supply lines and technological chains. With the communication lines deteriorating due to sanctions it will be easier and easier to do
Russia won't fall because of collective morally justified action. It's cohesion will be broken by its own officials aiming to avoid catastrophe in their own region. That will be a de facto economic separatism, political one will come much later
In discussing the collapse of Russia and rise of separatist states on its ruins, many focus on ethnic conflicts and identity politics. That's not completely wrong. I'll argue however that the main drivers of collapse will be geographic and socio economic
The best benchmark for Russian collapse isn't Yugoslavia or Austro Hungary. It's a fall of Spanish Colonial Empire with all of its creoles vs peninsulares divisions. Russia is much more of a Latin American country politics, economy, culture wise than many think. End of 🧵
I'm gonna post long reads on my substack. Here's a text on how did Russia get so big and so cold. It's outlining the logic of Russian imperial expansion political economy-wise. It explains why Russia expanded northward much earlier than southward…
I have some bad news for you about what military forces in that region exist that could, much less would, stop it from happening. (also, Vladivostok was originally part of the Qing empire, up until the Taiping Rebellion, as Kamil mentions at the end of his longer substack piece)
It's all hypothetical. If Russia were to be broken up, there will be many vultures circling for the crumbs. I personally doubt very much it will happen.
As Kamil goes into, the likely scenario for that to happen would be nominally unified but de-facto independent governorates who need to maintain food supply to keep power; some might join together a bit. Actual independence could take generations, nevermind foreign annexation.
Agree, but I wouldn't also discount the ethnic fault lines and the animosity that exists within. There would be civil wars and cross border wars all over that landmass. I'm sure the powers that be in the West/China would be working overtime thinking of the different scenarios.
What ethnic fault lines? Aside from Tuva, which is basically a self-contained Shangri-La, it's all Russian ethnicity, with occasional border minorities of Kazakhs in central Asia and some other Turkic peoples in the far east. Georgia would breathe a lot easier, though, sure.
How about the Chechens? Tatars,... Don't you think all of these small republics would want to claim sovereignty along ethnic lines? Sure there are ethnic Russians in all of these small republics but there are also ethnic Russians in Ukraine and look how that turned out.
Turkey vultures are always circling me. Should I be worried?😳🐈
Turkey would definitely want to play if that were to happen 😉
Who else wants to play?😳🐈
This reminds me of the northern nomadic tribes in Chinese history.
Hey, don't try and push those regions to us in Finland. We could take back the areas lost in WW2, but beyond that we're good.
If Russia collapsed that badly, would Sakhalin (along with the Kurils) be more likely to go to Japan?
Thanks for your profound analysis @kamilkazani . Sometimes mind blowing, especially your analysis on the production of Russian militairy hardware. Unknow to most of us in the West
This analysis seems logical. Still, what is evident to Chubays, isn't to Putin? What is Putin's role in all this? Has he lost his mind? Is he driven by emotions? Or is he just plain stupid?
"Still, what is evident to Chubays, isn't to Putin?" chubays is still shrewd. putin surrounded himself with sycophantic yes men and drank his own lies "Has he lost his mind?" no but he is certainly exhibiting blindness associated with narcissism
Putin thought Ukrainians would surrender immediately because FSB told him whatever he wanted to hear. He arrested them of course but he already make an irreversible decision based on false assumptions. There's no way back
Sadly putin might bring back special communitiy operation, special cooperatives operations, and invoke all those old soviet favorites, and bring on a even bigger social economical disaster to the russian people.
Not going to help. The problem is not in the absence of workers, but in the lack of expertise, the machinery, the tools… Gulags and sharashkas would not help
is the best read on twitter right now obviously because it's topical, but also he argues in a straightforward easy-to-digest way on broad topics (this is not easy) i won't say his analysis is 100% correct: i don't know the topic but it's compelling lucidity
Great read, Kamil! Videofootage is very entertaining. Go on!
Thanks for the info
Why sugar? What's so special about it?
You can use it to make alcohol so you don’t have to sober up in the middle of all this.
Ah, that'd be indeed a very Russian thing 😂
Cheap dopamine boost for poor people. Also used to make jam, to conserve fruits, berries and so on
also used to make spirit
Fucki' m*r*ns, both of you.
Sugar is the main ingredient in moonshine. In remote regions, moonshine will be the basis of barter. Many, many people in Russia depend on alcohol!
Liquid asset.
That's right, moonshine lies and will not forgive to eat, the shelf life is very long!
Цукор - основний компонент самогоноваріння в росіян. Вони здогадуються, що незабаром стане дефіцитом горілка (або нестерпно зростуть ціни на неї). Тому й запасаються цукром, щоб гнати самогонку.
Exactly, to make alcohol.
Don’t forget liquor..
And for making homemade vodka, right?
Ten tweett Pana kompromituje jako eksperta. W Rosji z cukru robi się w domowym zaciszu wódkę.
In a crisis, Russians buy up sugar, Chinese buy up salt, We Japanese buy up toilet paper. I heard that Russians with sugar escaped from starvation during the Siege of Leningrad.
70% of sugar comes from sugar cane which grows in warm places. Canada, Northern US can make maple sugar in more Nothern latitudes although it doesn't lend itself for industrial production.
Then you are left with sugar beet production which doesn't need tropical climate but Russia's production is not sufficient. Most sugar cane growers have not sanctioned Russia but import may be costly and still elevate prices.
Remember that granulated sugar can be stored indefinitely, it never degrades. Thus sugar becomes an inflation hedge for everyday people. It's not unlike "white gold", i.e. salt in midevial Europe.
how interesting. the price of sugar, here in Brazil, is around 1 dollar.
Makes sense. You're close to the source in brazil, so comparatively it is far less costly to grow and ship sugar there by the pound. The reason countries like the US have to pay so much more for cane sugar is A) we don't grow it and B) we CAN'T grow it naturally due to climate.
Maple sugar is very expensive too
Sugar beets vs. seasonal and finite tree sap requiring huge energy input. Temperate ag is prime for sugar beets. Ground for potatoes or northern barley = beets (field transition), and the waste/byproduct = cattle feed or biofuel, unlike trees which remain trees.
More importantly homemade hooch!
... and vodka is going be expensive, they are going made "samohonka"
When all is lost, babushka bakes a cake. And for one beautiful moment everything is ok.
sugar doesn't spoil. there's 20M babushkas who believe that buckwheat and tea with sugar are enough to survive
It's not completely wrong. If you can catch a fish at least sporadically and pick some berries by the way.
Ideally with a few hens grazing for worms, to have some eggs.
Moonshine is made of sugar, yeast, and water. Living in Russia without alcohol is unbearable.
Key economic and culinary good. You need sugar to make anything ranging from bread to alcohol. Without it, many modern culinary applications are impossible, and it's closest substitute, stevia, is nowhere near as plentiful and couldn't survive growing in Russia's colder climates.
Do you have a blog that one can follow? 😃 i like your threads.
You're a scholar and a gentleman, I am learning so much...🙏
I marked some typos! Thanks for the interesting text!
Do we know how China feels about all of this?
They love they want all the bits north on the pacifc coast
Same as Russia, imperial dream of China was influenced by trade route. That's why my country (Vietnam) had been invaded many times by them. Our land offers a maritime trade to vibrant Southeast Asia network. Also they conquered the west to secure Silk Road
Thank you Kamil, read it and never knew how the railway influenced Russia so much. Living in the Netherlands I visited once the small house of Peter I in Zaandam where he learned how to make wetlands into dry land and with this knowledge he made St. Petersburg a city.
Emekleriniz için teşekkürler. Güzel bir çalışma olmuş 🙌 Putin çılgın birisi ve kaybedecek hiç bir şeyi kalmadığı zaman nükleer silah kullanmaktan çekinmeyecek. Bu konudaki öngörüleriniz nedir ?
Fascinating! Thank you so much for this. It would make for a great documentary.
You looking for a job on western newspaper or something... What a load of rubbish
You talking about Russia here. Haven't you heard about the Cold War? All they have to is turn to China. Just have look at a map. This is 6th form (18 year old) school analysis.
Un interesantísimo análisis, parece que se vislumbra el fin de un imperio.
However, it is not as big as we usually think due to the Mercator projection. Big enough, though.
Thank you this news is brilliant very interesting
"Russia is Nigeria with snow" Agree or disagree?
The RUSSIAN Federation will become a conglomerate of countries with rich lands and poor countries?
However, the Allies lose wwII if Germany doesn’t engage the Eastern Front (USSR).
This is quite simply the most informative and eye-opening thread that I've read since the start of Putin's invasion. Well done, thanks.
Awesome read with a lot of new insights. Thanks for sharing!
dude, can you talk about the idiot Xi Jinping? This is more interesting than talking about Russia.
Fun fact: “Norway” is not named after the land farmed by the Northmen, but after the route that merchants took to Novogorod. The North Way = Norway.
What is the source of chubays funding Sputnik and Pogrom?
Dear @kamilkazani. I cannot thank you enough for these threads. So informative, they are akin to obtaining an education on the subject matter. Top-notch perspectives. Thank you. 🙏 ✊🇺🇦 #SlavaUkrainii
qual sua opinião sobre esse textão aqui? Tô curioso pra saber.
Eu tinha visto você recomendando ele outras vezes, era mais curiosidade nessa opinião dele sobre como a Rússia vai desmoronar ser continuar nesse ritmo.
Alías, esse papo de desmoronar e "armas nucleares só em caso de risco a existência da Rússia" são um pouco preocuopantes kkkkkkkk
demais. espero que putin caia antes
É também, mas ainda vai dar muita merda antes, já existem relatos de fósforo branco na Ucrânia, daí pra armas químicas é um pulo
Great stuff. Thank you
Excellent yarn! Thanks for the information! Greetings from Cuba...
Thank you. Learning Russia’s history, geography, economy and politics in Fast Forward mode with your readings. Sad that it took invading Ukraine to learn all this.
Great thread and very informative. So basically Russia is fucked.
This is really scary. If the collapse of Sovjet was a geopolitical disaster, then what would this be? What is a stronger word than disaster?
This would be a smaller geopolitical event than the breakup of the Warsaw Pact, or of the Soviet Union itself.
Thank you! Been reading all your threads, thanks!
Another phenomenal thread. I'm learning a lot. Thanks Kamil!
well isn't correct then ,what some analysts saying that all of this will sent Russia flying into China's arms faster and stronger than ever? And cant China support all of this lacks and embargos?
Wonderful thread, thanks! But I'm worried about the russian nuclear arsenal, in an independence scenario.
Thank you another very interesting piece.
Very interesting, indeed! Many thanks for it!
contiguous not contagious - also don't you think the decline of chattel slavery in northern germany owed to the rise of protestantism? congrats on your mind-bending triple-A historical sociology
One of the best account to follow this days.
totally (corrige: these - sono della lega dei correttori bozze disoccupatə;)
You r the best
Thanks! Really interesting read 👍
Yes. Add energy production - the turbines aren't russian are they. Distribution - computerised controllers everywhere. Mining, incl. oil and gas. Even the elevator in your building. All this require technical maintenance. And soft, whereas M-soft has already stopped updates.
So the collapse will be widening like tsunami. Or would, if the sanctions were hermetic. But they are not. Ru has also friends like Israel. Why wouldn't they buy a few containers of spare parts from BMW and sell to Ru with a small margin, let us say 20%? And so with everything
Sanctions supply export licenses already cover 3rd parties so they had better ask double for that kind of risk. Yes it will be a case of everything gradually stopping working as it wears out. #IStandWithUkraine #putinsbunker2022
If they have a fleet of - let us say - 60 mln cars, it requires ~ 200 000 service visits every single day. How will they do it without spare parts?!
This was an excellent read.
Then Russia collapse. What about nuclear weapons?
"The goal was to impose the real authority over the country. It was done by bringing up new and new demands each of them presented as the last one." It is very true, tested recently in Ukraine.
Danke für den umfassenden Einblick in die, letzten Endes fragile, russische Ökonomie und Wirtschaftskraft. Vieles sehe ich jetzt klarer.
Great read. Thanks! But, isn't Russia's answer to all these problems simply China?
Kamil - are you linking to the wrong substack in you profile?
Sorry, forgot - what a great and interesting read! Thank you for educating us on matters Russia. We learn far too little about eastern countries/cultures.
Your analysis looks reliable. I think this is also the situation the USA and its allies will find themselves in after China invades Taiwan. The USA/West will fall apart because of all the same reasons. If Biden and his regime had competence he would look to end conflict
Only temporary though, the West owns the chip design IPR, it just needs to build some silicon foundries and wafer fabs. Taiwan would not be insurmountable but I do agree it will be inconvenient for a few years.
Production and economic aspects are one, second are the raw materials supply and third is willingness to fight and die for the cause (for Critical Race Theory perhaps)
Tell me you get your talking points from the US far right without saying so.
Not me I'm British so quite socialist in comparison.
What makes you think China is more competent than Russia?
Thanks ! So interested … guess also that many soldiers desert of this stupid wars … they get killed because of the fad of #Putin ! The most corupt man in this entire planet !
A great analysis, but more seriously I think it will just end up with the ditch of господина Putin and Единая Россия in a few months. Russia will likely remain united under a new government and it will be the investing opportunity of a lifetime when that happens.
What about China? Won’t it try to become supplier of the needed components?
Fantastic thread - thanks for sharing your insights
Interesting thread, thank you
Wonderful writing, thank you. What happens to the 5000 nukes? Highest bidders?
They'll be stolen and sold by profiteers by then, duh
Threadroll please
Excellent thread !
só ir traduzindo. Boa leitura.
Hi. Thanks a million for your informative tweets. I feel bad reading it you do Patreon or something???
Great thread, thanks for the work!
This is excellence summary of Russian historical thinking behind their expansions. It is interesting to see how Putin followed many of these rules in Ukraine today, while violating two BIG ones.
I enjoyed reading about Russian history. I realize this is just scratching the surface
save this thread
Thank you So much for that great thread ! Very good work and cristal clear. It highlights facts and provides explanation on aspects of the crisis for which I wasn’t aware at all.
I read everything… Putin will send a nuke, China will invade Russia from south…
thanks for sharing your opinions
Thanks for sharing this. But what about China role in this?
Great thread. The Soviet military had the advantage over the German invaders due to a couple of factors. Shorter supply lines and they were defending their homeland. With Ukraine, the situation has reversed with Ukrainians fighting off a Russian invasion. Advantage UKR.
Wow, thanks for the long thread and explanation.
Excellent article, thank you for taking the time to write this thread & your substack article. Now knowing how Russia traded natural resources for centuries has added useful context to my understanding more of modern Russia.
Thanks Kamil, really interesting.
I’ve read your opinion. Thank you for sharing your wisdom🙂
Fascinating as ever.
Thank you for this thread One more consideration: Russia states a 'threat to the existence of the state' as reason to go nuclear Thinking about it ultimately you are saying nuclear annihilation is inevitable?!
I'd argue that the nat resources at stake also lend to troubling LA comparisons. Africa as well.
Mexico with nukes, as they say
Fantastic read, thank you for your time on writing all of this down
Aye aye, captain👮‍♀️! Reminder set for Sunday, 27 March 2022 at 01:59 GMT+0000.
Maybe this war will also have benefits. Dissolution of Russia. Maybe a return of Kyiv Russ. Russian federation will cease to exist and will not be able to be a player in the real struggle of this century - the free world against China.
Why do we have to be against China?
The regime that rules China ruthlessly denies life and freedom to millions of its own people. It lies and manipulates in trade. Their "free ride" with the US is finished.
We don’t have to be. Unfortunately China wants to dominate. It’s their official goal. Looking into China, how they rule their citizens makes you want to stop them from achieving it by all means, cause we don’t want to live like that.
The fundamental geo-political law of unintended consequences. Collapse of armies, surrender in WWI = mutinies, revolt, rebellion and revolutions, collapse of empire, Bolshevik rise, Red-White civil war, famines, gulags, purges, Holodomor, etc. Imagine.
As usual a fantastic read. It looks "too good to be true" from a western perspective and almost wishful thinking... But it is also more than plausible...
Ego-damaged nuclear-armed megalomaniac sitting atop a fragmenting empire who's people continue to see him as a savior while blaming the rest of the world for their suffering is... not good.
You're giving me 40K vibes, man.
Putin *dreams* of dropping churches on his enemies from orbit
Every thread you make I can't believe the similitudes with Latin America. Specially my country Argentina, or what current government would do if we were as big as Russia. Federalism, import substitutions with maquilas, corruption...
There are some similarities indeed, but I'd say Russia is much more like Brazil than Argentina
I guess they are because of the size. What Brazil lacks is the idea of the "Patria Grande" joining several Spanish speaking countries
The brazilian (Rio Jan) imperial elites managed to keep the portuguese colonies united here, after a series of wars and rebellions supressed. A cohesive brazilian empire only appeared in middle 1850's. If it failed, Brazil would be torn in at least 3 diff countries
With all due respect, Russia is most of all like... Russia. Comparisons don't work here. Or not quite.
The only similarity between Brazil and Russia is their size.
Não, a consciência de que possui recursos infindáveis, o desprezo pela vida dos mais pobres e a espiritualidade de conveniência também.
And corruption massive corruption
A ideia de cometer crimes e por tabela por na conta do governador, parlamento ou judiciário. Ou concentrador de recursos em Brasília , bem estão tentando Russificar o Brasil , a semelhança é absurda . Se deixar vira Rússia .
The strong tradition of slavery, too. On the other hand, there are also wast differences. Like Brazil having great ocean access, better climate and a future...
My country China is trash, Russia is much better than our country.
Como brasileiro e suboficial do exército digo que é muito parecido, de fato.
Até que ponto? O que o sr. compararia entre os dois países?
Exacly. I'm from Brazil.
It also resembles a lot to Mexico and it’s relation to the US. The endemic push between federalism and centralism was key in the XIX century. Then, the abundance of oil in earlier XX and the single party rule for over 80 years (now returning as a populist nationalism).
And I agree, is not a perfect resemblance, but in several aspects Russia could be a Latin American state. Failed and always proto democratic. Big difference: the region has never been (albeit their claims) a great power.
As a Brazillian with strong ties to Russia, I couldn't agree more with these words.
I often thought about such comparisons. In your opinion, what is the biggest similarity between Brazil and Russia?
Why more like Brazil than like Argentina? Just because of size?
I remember that our head of state, Xi Jinping, only gave your country more than 20 billion dollars in the Winter Olympics.
What is noticeable from his posts is that he has photos of having been in Buenos Aires a few years ago. When my children went to kindergarten a classmate was Ukrainian, and his parents were consulate officials, I was surprised by the similarities with Ukraine.
Argentina es un quilombo y por eso se parece tanto a Rusia.
Decía Sábato (1963)
It's because human nature is to blame. No matter who we are & where we live, if we see our bosses or "elites" engaging in corruption, it spreads downwards. Corruption takes weeks to entrench but decades to remove :(
In Portugal old saying: "he came to get the sheep and came out shorn". That's what's appening to Mr Putin...
As a Spaniard, I'd like ask if you can dig deeper into this last point. Congratulations for your threads, very insightful and helpful.
So same historical processes as the fall of Rome in the west?
Like LatAm countries, the wealthy elite move their money elsewhere, rather than investing in the domestic economy.
Great thread, how does China factor in?
Best Twitter account right now. Thanks! Keep on please.
Excellent. Quite interesting how western analysts and experts are seeing the consequences of sanctions as much less severe as you do. Do you know why that is?
Brilliant and illuminating. Resonates with what I recall as a Russian Studies major during the late Cold War
Fascinating. Do you think the collapse will happen in months? Years? And do you expect to see a lot of independent formerly russian republics in a few years?
This was very intesting to read. Thanks
Kamil, thank you for another insightful series! I have a question, though. Will Russia be able to save itself from shortages of everything from tech to sugar by buying from countries not participating in sanctions (like China)? How boxed in is Putin, really?
Thank you for the great insightful thread. What do you think about China, especially in the worst case that China all in Russia and ignore the sanction?
Any ideas what will happen to the nuclear arsenal? If Russia ceases to exist, what can be done about it that these things don't vanish on the black market and turn up in the wrong hands?
Kamil thanks! great thread! it all makes sense it has its logic. if we say we are seeing first signs or erosion, what would be the timescale of these incidents and is there anything they can do to stop it or are we looking at inevitable?
As a Latinamerican I agree with you, unfortunately 😔 I'm from a Banana Republic and they are the Frozen Banana Federation
Extraordinary analysis and a fascinating thread. 👏
Love your threads👍 Thank you!
I understand where you come from, but Rusia is far from being a conglomerate of Spanish viceroyalties or a Latam country. We make have exceptions like Venezuela or Nicaragua, but Rusia I believe is a completely different case. Few countries are so complicated socially and...
Następny szpieg lub zdrajca ⁉️pseudonim @Aniaa_a_a stop w poróżnianiu z sobą Polaków bo prawda jest taka ‼️ Ukraińców strzelają Ukraińcy❗
Cool thread as always, however I think you underestimate the support Russia is currently fervently seeking from 3rd party countries, especially from China. RU is China's important ally in incoming clash with USA; they cannot and will not let Russia to fall completely
I like this idea
Your threads are quite informative, thank you for taking the time to write them.
Sehr gut geschrieben und informativ. Anerkennung!! Vielen Dank. 👍👍
Why did not russia break up already in 1990 when the soviet union collapsed? Seems like the same dynamics were in motion then as well as described here?
Really appreciate the English text you’ve added to the videos- great enhancement! 🙏
Thanks! Fantastic information
This is such an offense to Brazil!
When Russia fragments and devolves into separatist states, what happens to their nuclear stockpile? How much of it is spread out across Siberia and Central Asia? And how will the international community respond to securing those weapons?
You are a genius, Kamil. Several people talk about Russia collapsing into severel states, but never from this realistic perspective!
Does it mean that the Russian "creoles" are handling power and resources to the Anglo-Saxon to become tributary territories?
Thanks for the thread, I wonder what will happen to its nuclear stockpile if this turns out to be true.
Hi Kamil, do you find it strange that such emphasis on Russia’s survival in their media coincides with the conditions under which Russia will use nuclear weapons (voiced by Medvedev today)?
Humbly thanking you of these educational threads! Much of these are something once read but not learned and now they are part of everyones life at least in Europe. Keep it coming and may the force be with you!
Best twitter- tread in weeks. MARVELOUS!
A must read! Thank you Kamil for your analysis!
This makes sense to me.
Very good subtitles! Not word-by-word to keep it short and easy to read, but still very close to the original meaning.
So we will probably have another huge humanitarian problem on our hands when food prices in Russia go so high that it's people especially the elderly starve. It will be interesting observing which systems breakdown first. Like watching the decomposition of a carcass.
This looks a lot like the collapse of Venezuela but on steroids...
Chubays is a fascinating character. How did he gain his power and influence to have such a role in shaping post-Soviet Russia?
THX @kamilkazani. The tech collapse will be faster for one more reason. Knowledge and expertise. Most new tech requires tons of specialized skills to implement => services vs widgets. You can steal or contraband a replacement part, but now way to customize pirated software.
OK, if Russia is just a political construct yes, Latin America. If it is a Mystical Militarist Irrational Social construct maybe the eventual dissolution of the Celtic world is illustrative? They couldn’t resist the pressure from Roman Commerce and ancient ‘rule of law’?
Thank you @kamilkazani for your deep and broad thread; a lot of history and really great interpretations and analyses!
Thank you for the informative and interesting read.
Having seen 1st hand Venezuela's collapse, under putinism script & guidance, I wonder if it was some sort of test by them (putinism) about how to destroy and a whole country within its own society and gain full control. Its a mirror of the gangster state you described in Russia
Thank You very much for this comprehensive analysis. Your insights and commentary and predictions so well founded. Your conclusions re disintegration and regional autonomy prescient.
And the fall of Russia could put an end to their closest friends, like Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.
This is the most astonishing thread I have ever read on Twitter. Your analysis, supported by super-relevant media is beyond brilliant. Thank you.
And China, what role will it play in this crisis?,...
Exceptional class on Russia and its dilemmas. Thank you very much!
Christ what a thread. I say that in a positive way, I learned a lot, but this is a LOT of info. How did you organize all of it into a Twitter thread? Very impressed.
Que buen hilo..!!! Por tu relato se parece mucho a la Argentina kirchnerista, por favor que a Putin no se le ocurra venir a nuestras tierras porque ya tenemos suficiente...
Nic lepšího jsem v poslední době nečetl. Díky.
Thank you Kamil for this huge flow of information and brilliant insight into this unfolding drama caused by this unjust & terrible invasion of Ukraine 🇺🇦! 🙏🏼✌🏼
I see it now, both Russia & 1800s LatAm have: 1) Extractive economies 2) Tenuous communication lines with the capital 3) Sovereigns busy with war 4) All European powers intervening. What’s missing is an ideological raison d’etre for breaking away from Russia.
Great read. Can you please elaborate on this last point?
Wow, a masterpiece! Thank you for sharing this!
👌🏿Muy bien, Camilo; en el clavo por lo que a ti respecta. Caretas fuera. Que se note ese paso por las instituciones “académicas” de la Costa Este😏
The whole thread is the best insigt i have seen so far about russia. thank you
Fascinating! So well written!
...Y eso transcurrió durante todo el Siglo XIX.
Thanks for another great thread. The information you share is so rich yet light to consume.
We still suffer what remain from shitty Spanish Empire Hoping to become independents soon, Catalans
I can’t thank you enough for your work! One of the issues I have with academia is that it is so inaccessible and the general public can’t directly profit from it. You’re creating a bridge here that is so valuable! I hope others will take you as an example!
I so very much enjoy your threads. I learn a great deal with each one. Thank you for being so generous with you insights.
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼 Thank you very much for this informative thread.
Interesting thread, but I wonder isn't China or India capable of jumping in?( In terms of Russia technology imports?) People and markets adapt...
I was wondering whether you could add, in your thread, how the sanctions affect gas and oil extraction & transportation. A lot of parts, including pipes, are imported. The permission of using patents, i.e. for EOR (tertiary phase of oil extraction) is part of the sanctions.
In the old days the politburo would take charge and sort these issues out. But no politburo any more! So Putin has made his bed, he can lie in it. #putinsBunker2022 take a look where he hangs out.
nice thread alllllll the way through to the end
Makes me think of Roman Empire fragmenting…
Your threads conscerning Russia are simply impeccable, but your latest tweet about the Spanish issue (which I don't know if it's from your own harvest or if some "Hispanist expert had insinuated it to you) contains, to say the least, very outdated conclusions.
Excellent thread to the point.But wr should discuss how this situation backfires to Europe to.Especially the weaker countries.Cost is extremely high,gas,energy,food shortage.And keep in mind that politicians in Europe are not sacred like Putin. It won't be a surprise to see a》
Estoy totalmente de acuerdo con la idea de que Rusia es similar al Imperio Español, con la diferencia que las colonias hispanas eran autosuficientes y muchas regiones rusas simplemente no lo son... Saludos allá en RU...
Makes you think what shape those nukes are in currently or a few months down the line. I assume they also require constant maintenance.
Russians were once succumbed to being the slaves under the Mongolian invasions. With this piece of history, many Europeans do not see them as part of European heritage.
So it looks like what you are saying is the collapse of the USSR was like stage 1 and more is coming this century. I wonder how this process will be complicated by the fact that Russia is a nuclear power. And also how long will China et al stay out of interfering within Russia.
Really really interesting thread. Thoughtful and a different perspective. Thank you. 👍
I think we'd benefit from a thread comparing these three examples.
This is an incredibly informative and educational thread. Thank you so much.
Child abuse causes PTSD. Hitler was an abused child. Stalin. Putin. PTSD leaves the victim permanently angry PTSD leaves some victims in extreme desire for power and control PTSD destroys human empathy and trust Why aren't we looking at this every day?
Latin America freed itself from Spain. Russia's influence was on left-wing ideology, but now Russia is far-right
A great read, thanks for sharing your insight. What about the Great russian Reckoning ?
Aztekowie lub Inkowie jeszcze lepiej
te lo comenté una vez los rusos son los latinoamericanos de europa
Great read, thanks for this.
There are hints here and I’ll read right into them. Seeing all this coming the U. S. and NATO and top Russia-in-the-west intellects, have come up with a template for a post war Russia. Some large regional autonomous entities. Basic commodity supply airlifts. Formal break later.
Mass migrations (geographic driver) are affected by identity politics and ethnocentric views though, so they could still tie in as major drivers of collapse?
Russia is not going to collapse, тупой ты татарский обмудок. Скажи, каково это знать, что ты больше никогда не сможешь приехать в русский город Казань?
You talk about Russia but outside the name and language does it actually exist? As an outsider my impression is what we have is the empire of Muscovy known as Russia. There's little an less of common interests between people in Vladivostok or even St. Petersburg and Moscow.
Kamil. Thanks for your excellent analysis and dedication. You are brilliant and thorough. I think you will enjoy CaspianReport on YouTube.
Prison politics. When it's life and death people cling to those like themselves and turn on outsiders.
This could be the beginning of that collapse, Next might be Chechnya or even Georgia. Russia can't possibly be everywhere right now, but it could also force Putin to negotiate peace with Ukraine.
(Possibly sensitive)
Well your argument is certainly not wrong. Possibly both could be factors.
Regardless of the reasons the main question is who gets nukes. If West can't secure nukes they/we will degrade to Bush41's "Chicken Kyiv" push.…
When Putin goes Russia will collapse. There are no institutions to keep this monster together. And at that collapse of USSR and Yugoslavia will look like a dream.
What to do with nukes in such a scenario?
Child abuse causes PTSD. Hitler was an abused child. Stalin. Putin. PTSD leaves the victim permanently angry PTSD leaves some victims in extreme desire for power and control PTSD destroys human empathy and trust When is Europe going to catch on?
This is a good description of the effect of sanctions-- if those sanctions are imposed by everyone. But that's not the case here. It remains to be seen to what extent Western sanctions have effects that can't be significantly ameliorated by trade with/through other countries.
I wonder if Russia will end up using a nuke on itself, in the end :\
Economic separatism ▶️ political separatism ▶️ sovereignty
Your stories don't hold any merit. You are a pawn of Joe Biden. Lend him your ba££s to fight against Russia. This is the truth and nothing else.…
Long Thread : "Putin has lost War in Ukraine. Zelensky is the New Winston Churchill who has defeated Modern Hitler Putin!!!” Haven't you been used to such headlines IMPOSED by "Independent" Media from US, West & Bharat? Want to know the TRUTH? Fasten your Seatbelts. (1/26)
Very insightful comment.
The implication is that only a return to full-fledged state terror -- "War Communism" -- can stave off collapse. But does the regime even remember how to do THAT effectively?
Они назначены из Москвы и будут действовать в её интересах. Прикажут - отправят весь сахар.
Domino effect leading to #Smuta
Well done on this game theoretical thesis point.
Such content should be in schools.
I finally realize what your threads remind me of - this is Asimov's psychohistory!
Thank you. I know essentially nothing about Russia, but if the regional governments try to hoard, why can't the central government prohibit this? And don't different regions need to trade with each other depending on their specialties of production?
Impatiently wait for the Republic of Karelia to make its move… (only half a million people though, so maybe not).
Understand that a major failing of Putin is his lack of planning. Clearly obvious now.
Wrong map... Crimea doesn't belong to russia
WTF IS THIS? Ти що, русню пропагандуєш??
And Russia is slaughtering thousands of their young men in this pointless war.
A brilliant 🧵
(Possibly sensitive)
The Russian population distribution is … odd. Very many more adults than youths, and relatively few elders. Vast majority of elders are women. (Pre-pandemic data)
Another factor that during the crisis of 1990 Ukrainians were the ones who produced a lot of food and brought to Russia for sale because Russian currency was a tad more stable than Ukrainian at that time
It's not that subsistence agriculture is unproductive. The old ways are, but permaculture/regenerative agriculture way is very productive and low on labor. But is it's very heavy on knowledge and design. Something not possible in crumbling society and economy.
Russian (very) low-tech farming.
Do you have any sources about how subsistence farming is unproductive. Just wanting to learn more about it. never knew that
How it worked in Russia in the past: 😉
Old Soviet anecdote: "Western economist visits Колхоз, spots people cultivating tiny fields growing mix of everything. He remarks, if they grew single crop they could trade excess. Russian friend says, this way they can steal anything & nobody will question where it comes from."
Small vegetable lots work well if you tend to them, but require a lot of work. A lot have also been transformed into suburbia. And the sowing season starts soon, by the time the "middle class" realizes they should be plowing the earth it will be too late for the 2022 harvest.
I wrote a post just a day ago about how to start to accumulate a-grandmother's-worth of gardening knowledge, if anyone wants to start to reclaim this knowledge:…
I do not think that Russia is threatened by food problems today.Russia has made great progress in this matter, becoming the largest exporter of grain (as in 1913. ;) Unless, of course, agrocompanies too are working with western equipment.
They can watch a youtube video as well as the next person. You're ignoring the ubiquity of preserved knowledge available on demand.
How will western societies adapt to $200/bbl oil also comes to mind.
Holy shit. I thought Borat was kidding.
Borat's wife with that plow?
in Russia they plow using old women dragging... you are scum... hope you are paid well for your Nato propaganda
Doing full blown subsistence farming is indeed not productive - especially for grains. As long as you focus on veggies story is different. It also doesn't require nearly as much skill as you think. It does require some land though, and I doubt people from Moscow have that.
All that beautiful soil.😔
I learned myself gardening from the books and youtube and my own experience. It is not that difficult. People can and will shift in times of need very quickly.
En Argentina no creo que se pongan a cultivar sus terrenos los adoradores del kirchnerismo...
Very optimistic, I hope you are 100% right
Is that #Trump he’s talking to?
The boomers "can" do it but are not nearly as efficient as their parents, they can barely grow some chickens, and even that is a big deal for them, while their parents would have a cow(s), pigs, geese, ducks, etc., etc.
I can attest to that. We lived in the Soviet Union before moving to Germany in 1991, and my parents', friends & family's stories were full of the fact that without "dacha", garden, some animals etc it would not have been possible to live & feed the family.
Arnold Ziffel! I always wondered what happened to him.
I do not understand, Boomer is the name of the pig?
In America, we call them “sales managers”…
"Putin is sacred, innocent, unaccountable." The notion that people would believe this is as obscene as the sentence. Sweet Jesus.
In other words Putin is in the same position as the the Tsar prior to the revolution, a holy figure, god's representative on earth
Furgal from Khabarovsk in jail because he doesn’t play with voting processes to help putin better % in region
OMG. Just like in the days of the Tsar.
En Argentina son iguales los votantes del Kirchnerismo...
Threadreaderapp unroll
jesus christ, brazilians are the same. blame everybody else but the god damn president
Classic… even during Stalin times people think Stalin was not aware of all the injustices… Stalin was sacred.
This is exactly the same in Brazil.
Tzar is infallible, blame the boyars
Sergey Furgal is actually an example of good governor who got higher rankings than Putin and then got arrested. People protested for almost a year!… If Russians manage to take him out of prison, he can change the whole game for Eastern regions.
2020–2021 Khabarovsk Krai protests - Wikipedia
(no description)
Russia's power structure seems to have stayed pretty unchanged since the Czars. Even the USSR was pretty much the same.
Just like the central CCP in China.
They will blame the US/EU. It is always easier to blame the other than yourself. Plus with Biden's comments today we are making this an existential war (in Russia's mind). Their response is pretty clear at this point (nukes) and we ignore it at our own risk.
classic "if Stalin only knew about this he would get it fixed" syndrome, history repeats itself, I just never thought I would witness it in my time
No. Putin will twist this so that they blame the west and push for more aggressive action. Siege mentality.
"Tsar is good, but boyars are corrupted"
The Putinistas sound a lot like the American Trumpalos. Putin, like Trump, is above any criticism. But woe to all state and local authorities who tick them off.
Z-zion; V - victory; the next part after covid it’s putin help globo to reset the economy, one agenda more 💀 next part is Enviromental revolution
Tässä varmaan näkyy se, että johtaja on erehtymätön ja vika löytyy pajareista
Total opposite of America, where Biden is blamed for everything by our fascists.
It’s the least important part, but the Kinder eggs are right there by the Nestle chocolate bars.
JFC seeing this is reliving trauma of early 90. At least this time I’m not the one having to fight with 20 other people for the last pack of pasta.
The tsar is a good guy but his advisers are terribe ...but the modern version
As always, the Tsar is good only the boyars are bad.
own fault. My pity creeps up on them only very slowly.
The return of the myth of the good Tsar. And bad boyars.
Common people are not interested in politics. If they are told that sugar sortages are due to Eurasian sanctions and war with Eastasia on mondays and due to Eastasia sanctions and war with Eurasian on thursdays then they will believe that and love their tsar.
This is also the case in China where by large levels people support the national CCP and Xi. It's the local/state govt they despise and view as corrupt. For them they are two entities even if they really aren't.
If they change the governor and he/she also cannot bring life back to normal? Will the anger eventually point towards Moskov?
Just like many Germans in 1933-1945: "Wenn das der Führer wüsste..." (if only Hitler knew...)
Same thing happened in Hitler Germany
Same thing here in USA with Donald j trump
"if only the czar knew!"
faz igualzinho aqui no Brasil.... @KimKataguiri da um confere
Thanks, Putin's supporters look exactly like I imagined them!
"The good tsar, the bad boyars" - it was always in Russia
What a lovely ladies, Brainwashed by TV. I bet they must be loved in the neighbourhood. What else would they do than watch Russian controled TV all day :D They have no idea about what the hell is going on "We are liberating"...
Babushki for baby killing is not not the ham-fisted, childishly transparent PR stunt I expected. But no one ever lost money betting on the truculent ignorance of the average muzhik…
Stockholm syndrome at it's best.
I can’t believe it is not staged. But then I remember my Russian relatives, and I have nothing to say except - Yeah, it is realzy-realzy.
O.M.G. 😱😱😱 the majority 🇷🇺 voting „class”?
No education + no income + no knowledge + sparse information = crazy babushkas.
It’s ashamed they’re so brainwashed and ignorant. Someone has to spread the truth and it looks like he’s arresting all Gen Z.
Old frustrated smelly feet
Russian demographics
“Operation enduring Iraqi freedom” comes to mind for sure. All these super nice countries just liberating and saving folks
Biden’s speeches won’t stop Putin’s slaughter in Ukraine. Only actions will but apparently Biden continues to leave those to Ukrainians.
At what point does the dam break and it all crash down on Putin , can they run him out of town and declare time to take a different approach?
Fenômeno semelhante ocorre no Brasil de BolsoNero.
Putin's Basic Plate
да да да за этими бабками будущее россии...
Real goosebumps watching this...
These ladies display cognitive dissonance at its worst. "there is no war...and we will be victorious!... because Putin is a genius." 🤦
What a sad lot, they sound very Brexity to me.
The widowed Babushka Bunch is still fantasizing about sex with Putin.
I guess the one the old too familiar incredibly long lines for bread they have for decades during the old Soviet Union. The Russian elderly still suffering from Stockholm Syndrome!
Эй !!! А не эти ли бабки с "Корабля дураков" Босха ?...🤔🤗🙄
"If the czar only knew..."
“liberating the people”… by freeing them of their lives??? 🤬
This is so sad. These poor women are the ones who need saving
Son como los que votan en Argentina a kirchnerismo...
When these grand mother will learn that their grandson died in Ukrain, or when the grandsons that will come back will tell them that they were asked to fight but not provided food, ammunition or oil? will they still support Putin? Some may say they were ordered to shell civileans
It’s sad - I personally know people like this too. It’s a mixture of patriotism and fear. Russia has been ruled like this for 400 years - relying mostly on normal people for support and screwing them the most at the same time.
I like the dove in the background there. Is it a flying fascist dove or just a bird?
позорные, безмозглые, ссаные, никому ненужные тряпки
I think it is the atherosclerosis cerebrovascular disease.
The dumb skin looks out of their faces. Everything like under Hitler.
In coming months these babushkas find themselves in empty ulizas brushing with willow-branch brushes, hoping to earn some rubles to buy cabbage. Heil Putin!
Haha. Please ask those zombies in a couple of weeks again. They will kill each other for some butter or bread or sugar or banana or coffee or……tbc.
These women remind me of Trump supporters.
Pick up a gun and fight the war yourself you nuclear babushka
These babouchka…!!! It is clear they have a clear analysis of situation and will make russian entering in the 21 century !!!
I have mych hatred for old ladies like those they aren't the ones who will be dying blown to pieces yet they express so much anger and fake fighting spirit. In my country we have a lot of those and they so wanted to send our boys to war against Russia, fuck them.
They normally blame America first
Poor and delusional souls...
just like in Brazil the fanatics blame the Mayor and Governors for all problems in the country
Its always a “difficult decision” to kill and kidnap civilians I mean “de-nazify” a country. I feel sorry for how imprisoned these women’s realities are. An entire life of ignorance and illusion.
We already heard #Putin: He will not stop and now he is threatening other countries, because #Europe and #NATO told him they would not intervene. Humanity must stop the #genocide and war crimes against #Ukraine now! NATO and Europe: Time is running out! #StandWithUkriane #StopWar
When they stop receiving their pensions, they will turn their backs on Putin.
Just because your old, doesn’t make you wise.
Economic prosperity was the alternative. What a tragedy.
Shades of “women for Trump”
You can only blame the wrong people for so long.
This is how propoganda works so well on the elderly. I wonder how many sons, grandsons and family of these women in the military won't be coming home. If they only knew the truth.
Jejej the same with China
that is very big PIZZZZZDETS!
These ladies need some black tea made in a charcoal Samavar. They would feel at home and comforted.
Indistinguishable from the tory faithful.
Russians desperately need someone to tell them what to do, and save them; it's not unlike trump lovers. Modernism has erased societal safety.
Make Russia great again. 😩
Such state deserves to desappear... it's bizarre...
We only talk about Putin / the oligarchs / the Russian people. I don't know if this guy is correct, but he invites us to take into account parameters foreign to our simplistic view of Russia.
Russia has survived worse! They thrive after every crisis. Russia will survive a betrayer like you who sold soul for a few $. Russians saved the world from Nazis, Napoleon, Mongols, Swedish Empire at great cost & so many sacrifices. USA will meet it's end from Russia as well.
Putin broke Russia, and there is no way on earth that exports of Oil/ Gas to the West can be reinstated, nor return of Western Tech. At best, it will become a vassal state of China. At worst, collapse, putting 6,000 nuclear weapons in play. Please focus next research on latter
Back in the nineties, during the last free election in Russia, the two pro western democratic parties received together 8 ( eight) % of the vote. The other 92% will stand behind the czar. The pressure may come from the nomenklatura, not from the people.
Putin same fate as comrade Ceaușescu awaits you. Aloo Aloo Aloo! #DICTATURE #DICKS
Guards surrounding Putin - looks like he has no other choice - and if I were him, I wouldn’t drink that champagne either… Anyway - doing as he does - accepting orders without revolting against Chubais got him in this position, destroying 🇷🇺 and killing innocent people.
The great irony of Putin’s legacy may very well be the disintegration of Russia itself.
Like final days of Soviet economy, when every republic, every region, every city wanted to keep whatever resources it had for itself.
Cool map. Does it exist in higher resolution?
Just what happened in 91: enterprises and ministries hoarding as prices went up to sell for higher profit.
I heard some specialists also saying that Russia had rebuilt its agriculture to become self-sufficient. Is it not true then?
Same thing in Germany tho. Possibly even worse 😒 🤷‍♂️
The have a problem of understanding "market".
That is where all the gold of the central bank suddenly makes sense. A black market in every Russian City.
If he sold it it is not above market price.
The new oligarchs...
Same old story — the wealthy steal from the country and become powerful, while ordinary folks try to make up shortfalls in income (job loss, inflation) by stealing small stuff and get arrested.
"The government is already fighting against the profiteering" Bitch please, the government taught the people to do so 😶
You could mention that sugar is one of the few areas where Russia managed to turn the tables and become a net exporter over the past few years, which makes this current behavior all the more amazing
Why does the media always talk about sugar? It has zero nutrition, Russians would be a lot better off without it. If sugar is the only commodity Russians are short of, they're ok. Talk about bread and veggies next time.
Ah, just like the good old days!!
Soviet sugar underground army.
Welcome to совок!
Sugar is the toilet paper of Russia.
It's the Soviet corruption mentality.
No co? Wolny rynek.
Mentalność najtrudniej zmienić. Ruski duch.
Like profiteering by the individual is so much worse... Have you seen the oil company profits in the west for example?
1. They love tea and coffee with sugar. 2. Sugar is used for long-term storage of fruits and berries, in winter it is very expensive. Also for making desserts at home, because it is expensive in stores. 3. Make alcohil from sugar 😏 Sorry for my English 🙈
Nie rozumiem tego braku cukru, czy w Rosji nie ma buraków cukrowych, ani cukrowni - skąd te braki ???
My parents grew up in Soviet Russia & Kazakhstan, and this shit is how it was all the time. The number of stories they told about how everyone had to steal, bribe, etc, just to be able to provide for their families is stupid.
Then use your voice to let everyone Stevia is a sugar sub made from the leaves of the Stevia plant. It's about 100 to 300 times sweeter than table sugar, no carbohydrates, calories, or artificial ingredients.I have grown indoors & in gardens for decades .
Happy Putin back to the USSR
Estimation of ru shopping in chlna?
"End of nation" talk is pretext to use of nucl. arms...
Lord of the sugar flies!
Always a good read, these threads.
Add fact that EU is decisevly in 5 years terminating gas, coal, oil imports from Russia at any cost and Russian budget is going to look bad. What interest is China going to charge?
I notice a lot of people wearing masks
Old people fighting over sugar. 😒
Echate este hilo, y ponle estás imágenes al Manolon a ver que dice
Clowns with nukes. Awesome 👌.
Corruption rises atop the hoarding.
They loved the return of the USSR, right?! 😂🤣🤣🤣🤨😂😂
They voted for this. 😒
I am curious about sugar. I thought Russia produces sugar from beets? If you made sugar out of sugarcanes then you are finished. Sugarcane is a tropical species.
I hope Russia as a huge stock of insulin.
One thing is for sure, Putin has really screwed the average Russian ( including Soldier ) , the financial hit they are going to suffer ......oh , Putin controls the Russian media, trouble for Putin is that prices cannot lie ...
Oh, less toilet fresheners is good for environment :D
Looks like the sanctions are working. More, please. 🙏
Looks like the fridge is beating the TV.
Salad expensive, single pack noodles expensive, toilet tablets unnecessary...
when it was filmed? he said that 1 usd is 80 rubles but i see 1 usd is now 99 rubles
Toilet tablets are totally pointless anyway ha
Better prices than I see in America
And vodka will replace pharmaceuticals
I love the Russian language. every third word is a color curse word :)
You live to see it!
wow, that is very insightful
What'll destroy Putin? Hyperinflation. Unable to borrow and with reserves frozen, Russia will run the presses to finance the war and state payroll - as GDP shrinks and people spend evaporating savings on anything they can lay hands on. Look! Every Russian a trillionaire!
I'm curious about how much these things would have cost before the sanction
Wat een goede draad is dit
10 $ w tej siatce Jaka jest miesięczna realna wypłata robotnika w Petersburgu?
Let us remember that this is not our, the West's, fault. This is Vladimir Putin's fault, with his war against Ukraine.
Yeah, tens of thousands will starve come winter.
This really sucks. I feel so sorry for normal Russian people whose quality of life is being destroyed before their eyes.
In russia, еб твое мать, блядь! is the new Вперёд, друзья! ...and I think it's beautiful. 😍
Third aspect of Russian fall will be the decrease of supply in literally all consumer goods. Mutually exclusive collectively exhaustive, there are two options: prices can rise or there will be deficit. At this point both phenomena take place. People are shocked by new prices
Guy needs to learn to cook. All prepared, packaged junk. Serious note: Putin must go.
We already heard #Putin: He will not stop and now he is threatening other countries, because #Europe and #NATO told him they would not intervene. Humanity must stop the #genocide and war crimes against #Ukraine now! NATO and Europe: Time is running out! #StandWithUkriane #StopWar
I m feeling bad for Russian people as well as Ukrainians. I don't know what to say.
will can go find some job freeloader
But what were the prices beforehand? I may have the conversion rate wrong, but this sounds like a pretty cheap shopping trip to me in USD...
BTW, 1.89€ is not expensive sausage in Finland.. So.. if that is too much for Russians, they really don't earn anything..
They will make russian "substitutes". I guess this nation is quite creative and will manage to come up with something. If no hope they will smuggle parts from "friendly" states. 🤷‍♂️
An interesting leak.
I'm an aerospace engineer and I approve this video. However, they are wrong when they say they will fly to "friendly" states. They wont be able, they will still need to comply with international airworthiness standard which they wont able to.
Will they be able to smuggle the parts from countries who didn't support the sanctions?
to make a repair you need a guide. even for the torque to be applied to a screw. these are electronic provided by the service central / vendor. if they dont have access anymore, no repairs at all. it's so funny to see him talking about it with no clue what it takes :)
You can't have your cake and bomb it, too.
(No comment)
Even if the planes were airworthy, by whatever definition, they can't fly to any country where the original owners would be able to have them seized with a court order. So, basically, a very few destinations other than domestic.
here is the discussion about your stolen Irish planes, with English subtitles...
Forget lease agreements, extensive maintenance & inspection schedules: both Boeing & Airbus have suspended all sales, support & service to RUS airlines.
Good luck russians flying out of Russia 🤣🤣🤣 towards friendly states 😜
F students talk…
I can’t figure out who is the man speaking, other than the minister (in tie)?
This is a very interesting thread. A comprehensive summary of what's going on. And, meanwhile, the propaganda has to resort to fake Putin's meetings like the one with Aeroflot stewardesses.
These clips are like peeks into Hitler's bunker just before the end
We will do our own certificates. yea, in a country as corrupt as Russia, I can't see anything going wrong with that.
Being assertive and confident as a leader doesn’t mean you’re correct. Here we have Commie McClownPants exhibit-A. 😂
Could they buy the components from HongKong, with the help of China?
They'll probably fly them, until planes will start dropping from the sky. Maybe then they'll decide it's too dangerous. Unless, the Russian Federation will then 'certify' those accidents as caused by human error. *Note to self: don't get on any flights in Russian planes.
They’re even more fucked than just never being able to fly those jets abroad. They’ve been cut off from the global parts tracking. The jets are worthless now; their maintenance logs can no longer be verified.
WHY Russian Aviation is CORNERED!
Get 20% discount on the yearly subscription of Brilliant by using this code 👉🏻 In todays video I will list all the differ...
Russians can disassemble some aircrafts and use them for parts.
But why would “friendy states” accept broken objects flying in their sky?
Now, lets use the same "line of thought" for each&every economic sector/branch of business in which russian private sector are working... even speaking in internal market only... companies are f*****, people are f*****, families are f*****, economy is f*****... dark days ahead!
how about getting spare parts from China?
Russia better start producing trains ...
"We will print our own airworthiness certificates" oh god I'm dying 😂
Deny the real issue.
Not too much with the gender balance?
Ok, this all begs the question: why won't the military/industrial complex start sourcing from China, and after a period of adaptation, keep on chugging (assuming they have money to pay for it)?
Isn't Antonov based in the Ukraine?
But, about the supply chain and militar industry, components, technology... won't China intervene to rescue Russia? You've left China out of that equation.
Even more important to halt aircraft electronics components' exports (Thales on-board electronics, being an example).
None of the Russia's current civilian fleet can be maintained without imported parts, including Sukhoi Superjet, as the engines for them are imported. And even China refused to export airplane parts to Russia.
Would this explain why we haven't seen Russia using their air force properly? Perhaps they're holding it in reserve in case of a confrontation with NATO. If they flew extensive sorties now, without a source of spare parts, they could end up without air capabilities.
Here it'd be fun to mention that An stands for "Antonov", i.e. these are not Russian planes, they're Soviet... and the "Antonov" plant itself is Ukrainian. That's likely one of the hopes of the war - restoring soviet production chains. A fools hope, it's all mostly deteriorated.
They never understood market’s and economy. They will suffer from that. Soon and hard. They damaged themselves economically so substantially that they fall back below a regional power. And for us the goal has to be a de-nuclear Russia.
I think it’s not well understood Russia no longer has the industrial capabilities of the Soviet Union. Ukrainian industrial capacity was a major loss. We are not facing off with a nation that is self-sufficient other than perhaps food production, which also require some imports.
Russia barely owns 25% of its commercial aircraft...maintaining modern (stolen) aircraft w/ parts from older ones will become increasingly difficult, if not impossible.
Since they can’t fly to most airports now or over many countries’ airspace, that might not be such a big problem at the moment.
Russian aircraft with faulty parts will not get air worthiness certificates or insurance to fly. They will be grounded and air travel will be restricted to Nazi dictator Putin and his cronies. That is, of course, when they find the courage to step out of their Kremlin bunkers.
They won’t need all of those planes. Russia is once again about to become the worlds largest prison with few people going in or out.
They'll just get them serviced in China lol
They will take spare parts from the other 60%
(No comment)
It's true about their roads. This is the land of oil, why can't they make proper roads? I guess it's a question of budget, since the country is huge.
Siemens needs to pull out. They've said 'no new business' but they have a 30 year contract to maintain the high speed trains between Moscow & St Petersburg. Don't know if they have any other contracts.
Kamil. Please publish on how great idea it was for USA and Europe to recruit German scientists and skilled workers end Ww2, draw comparisons with now. USA needs massive wake-up call & Russia and Belarus has large pool of people which are mandatory to acquire to compete with China
Carcass? Камиль, найми редактора
Railways also linchpin of Russian army logistics -- such as it is. If railways break down, the army dies.
Railways are very important to US transportation of goods, but because they're mainly owned by freight companies, they're not really suitable for passenger traffic. Only a few areas of the US has good passenger rail.
If Russians want to stop the war, it sounds like sabotaging the railways is the easiest and safest way to rebel. Unfortunately that’s a double edge sword since those same rails carry them and their food, but perhaps targeted rail disruptions would be very helpful.
As anyone who played Civilization knows, sustaining a vast continental empire is very hard without railroads.
That is going to hurt Russia. Their hopes are on trade with China, 70%+ deliveries heading to European part of Rus. Friends told me that westbound freighter rail traffic was really heavy (ofc, some transit was to EU) Rus railway will not last long. Will collapse abruptly
Huge! 🇷🇺 relies on railways to connect its (too) vast landmass.
from your essay, this is a huge problem for russia
If you translate this article it's about a German company which can't export several machines destined to make thousands of wheels for Russian trains every year. Just one little piece of the catastrophic puzzle.
Ukraine-Krieg kostet Rasoma ein Viertel des Umsatzes
Das Döbelner Unternehmen Rasoma hatte mehrere Aufträge aus Russland. Die Lieferung der Anlagen ist nun schwierig. Das ist nicht das einzige Problem.
Are we talking about the bearings that catch fire quiet often?
You don't think those parts can come from China?
America could learn a lesson about this too
How hard would it be for Russia to just switch back to roller bearings?
The only Russians that will have newer models of cars will be the drug dealers, who can buy their cars in Europe with dollars from their drug deals.
Another gem of all tweets.
What about China going in as the middle-man? Or Kazakhstan?
Ich finde ja in guter russischer Tradition sollte man Zar Putin Jekaterinburg zeigen. Oneway!
Ladas also use foreign made parts. Good luck going Made in RU only.
What's to stop them getting the parts from China? China has a number of production lines that can be retooled to produce knock off copies of just about anything. And they're energy starved to boot. Seems a natural trade. Oil for manufactured goods.
Wow. They can't drive their police cars because they can't repair them? Holy moly.
Sorry to correct you, but details in English do not mean small parts or components like they do in Russian
Pretty soon, Russia will begin to look like Cuba.
Such an interesting thread thank you.
They can get bearings from china can’t they?
yes, China produces none of those, and the west would never, ever buy those components from China either rather than manufacture them at home. Good panicking
la situation française n’est pas *extrêmement* différente, je vois le chantier d’un EPR et le pompes à béton sont de chez Putzmeister, les grues de Liebherr, les compresseurs de Kaeser et cetera, et j’imagine qu’avec Airbus et Dassault ça soit pareil…
That looks to still be running Win 2000 or something, which is not unusual at all for long-lasting precision machinery but still pretty terrible security if you're trying to share cad files or w/e via SMB network drives. @AnonOpsSE ya'll know what to do here.
This is a 💎 tweet.
Niemieckie sterowanie CNC, Sinumerik 840D sl.
Well, this what we want, don‘t we? Trade is a war preventer in normal times because of exactly this. Like the marriage policy of kingdoms in former times. I hope that‘s the last thing Putin will learn before he is kidnapped and brought to Den Haag the old devil.
Missing components in RUS military/commercial machinery: a/ semiconductors + semi-lasers, b/ aircraft + weapons' electronics, c/ precision mechanics machinery, d/ supercomputing, e/ high bandwith comm systems, f/ techn. processes. Engineering competencies missing as well.
Big brother watch you!
Nothing has changed since WWII.
And the CNC Control Unit of the Tacchi machine in the picture is a German Siemens Sinumerik
Sinumerik - Wikipedia
(no description)
not that it's too important in terms of this thread, but still curious: doesn't Cheliabinsk tractor plant produce tanks too?
Fascinating as always thanks for the erudition. Please start a podcast !.... Before the invasion @elonmusk had often extolled the virtues of USSR Rocket engineers and how their work gave huge insight for Space X.
They should have been making tractors when they had the opportunity to do so. Oh well.
No more tanks…
Interesting thread. I would like to add the text by prof. Orlowski from 2.02.2022: today's Russia is like Russia in 1905, when the Tsar wanted a small victorious war with Japan to streghten his reputation. But he lost. Ukraine is the new Japan
Witold M. Orłowski: Rosja w roku 1905 i 2022
Jeszcze na początku 1905 r. Rosja wydawała się rozwijającym skrzydła światowym mocarstwem. Kilka miesięcy potem zaczął się proces upadku władzy carów. Czy są po
Same actors :-)
Thanks fascinating stuff.
Absolutely terrific narrative.
Je pense que ce fil vous intéressera. Et si jamais vous souhaitez disserter un peu sur le sujet, je vous lirai avec plaisir :D
Putin is 70 years old. He could have simply retired and been the richest (or nearly richest) guy on Earth. He could have lived out a long luxurious life. A really poor choice to invade Ukraine.
Maybe an answer here to "why now?" Russia had to move now or never because it's army rotting away.
Isn't that to the left of Putin the same actor/statist who we saw in the tea party with the ,,stewards,,?
Ну какие "new innovative tanks":) Которые из обычного советского рпг прошиваются:) Не говоря уже о более современном оружии типа джавелинов. Главная угроза это ракеты, самолёты, которыми путлер бомбит города. А путинские танки не проблема для украинцев. Горят отлично.
in 6 months
T ..... totally A ..... awful N ..... non-good K ..... kink
Hope they are all superproud they are fighting Nazis
Rusya'daki tek tank üreticisi olan Uralvagonzavod'daki tüm üretimin şimdi durdurulmasına şaşmamalı. 2014'te getirilen eski yaptırımlar, yeni yenilikçi tankların geliştirilmesine izin vermedi. 2022'nin yeni yaptırımları hiç tank inşa edilmesine izin vermiyor
What your are saying is that Russia and its leaders are trapped, like rats in a corner. This is undoubtedly an « existential threath » . Frightening.
What a detailed well reasoned informative thread. Thank you!!!!
I wish the tank in this pic had a serial number to see if it's been destroyed in UKR.
Hence emptying all the museums of parade vehicles...
And emigrating. Lots of Russian-trained engineers in the west the last 3 decades.
A tank barrel?!? A metal tube…👀
Total failure in education policy, investment in their own people, in science/tech/R&D.
In your opinion, does this mean that the 0 compensation payable to the patent holder when he decides to use an invention, utility model or industrial design without his consent - from hostile countries - is merely propaganda?
WTF? Lost the capability to make tank gun barrels??
(Possibly sensitive)
Not to mention the 100000 programmer exodus that just happened. So no one to maintain the code, or write workarounds for failing machinery.
Wow, such knowledge is lost in 1 generation?
Pyramids work under one condition: growth. Without it, they start crumbling. Sadly, it takes years, even decades, until they collapse. Distributed networks do not depend on central nodes of information and resource distribution.
Yes, but there are some Russian immigrants working in US high tech sector and National laboratories, they are willing to help Russia despite the fact that they are US citizens. So creation of espionage network is just a matter of time. Like Huawei Cisco case.
Given the male life expectancy in Russia, this is the death sentence for the industry.
You know, it’s a problem when the dude in charge and his plutocrat/oligarch rings of support know nothing about the military or government. No interest; just jokes about loser slobs while lounging on yachts.
The smartest people migrated away from Russia to the places where they found better jobs. Some people were hired by American and European companies in their facilities in Russia but later moved abroad when companies moved their best teams to the safer locations outside Russia.
Great point about the engineers, one of the reasons why NASA basically paid Energia to build the Russian ISS modules was because the Pentagon feared all those engineers would get poached by Iran and North Korea so they wanted to keep them in Russia
but *why* does Russia treat its engineers so badly?
More to the point, what is the future of Russia's nuclear stockpile?
Sadly very true! Economist, lawyer, real estate etc...Very rare to see an engineer 😓
Nice point - in the 80s it was clear that their engineering was having issues. The engineer is a critical cog in the machine of war. We are critical, without us it's back to sticks.
Exactly, you are so accurate, the most glaring example is the moribund Russian space program which is in complete decline, the UAE with their first Mars mission have overtaken Russia and managed to do what Russia hasn't been able to do since the 1980s.
How much of this can be sourced through China?
There’s nothing left after Putin picked their pockets.
Like American Teachers?
The more I read this thread, the more similar Russia seems to Britain. Chaotic, underfunded administration, and the promotion of rich rentiers and fraudsters over people with any technical competence or actual knowledge.
Which is why they have hypersonic missiles and we don't
So dumb. So, so dumb.
An engineering jobs was prestigious jndeed but wasn't highly paid at all. Tell you as a son of former ussr engineers, my parents.
a job of engineer was prestigous and highly paid)) Камиль, кам он) сраный инженер в совке это социальное днище, в принципе уже тогда закладывалось, что технологии роиссии не нужны. то ли дело мясник или проводник в поезде!
You’re entirely correct. Don't mention that the USSR exploited heavily vassal countries. Everything was focused on military-industrial production.
Prestigious maybe, but highly paid... could you give some reference where you have got that info? I know a few people who were engineers during soviet era but their salary was decent at best.
People (especially in the US) forget that the USSR made it to space first. hell, the only reason the US caught up was the use of ex German (nazi) scientists in the space race with their rocket knowledge.
This right here is understated and probably explains why nothing innovative, novel, or of high-quality has coming from Russia in the past forty years as the rest of the world pumps out global brands. Russia crumbles.
Chip factories in USSR were not in Russia. In Latvia two factories ALFA and ELLAR were real chip producers. Even with old lithography methods starting in 60-ies, they were not state of the art, but they could make real chips. And had all the engineering/constructor bureaus.
Please, do not compare Putins Russia with Imperial Russia or USSR. Todays Russia is a bleak shadow of predecessors. Russia of today is ZERO. In Soviet Union something like going on today would never happen
Russia is sliding into Cuba/Iran situation with speed of 1 Cuban year in one week in 2022.
It is absolutely wrong conclusion. In the USSR a job of engineer was a prestigious in some areas, but never was highly paid even in aerospace industry. Now the situation is much better + they got an expirience of job with foreign partners (very rare in USSR).
2014- sanctions have been (qualified) success.
So why aren’t the Russians buying Chinese military components/equipment/technology? Do they fear becoming militarily dependent on the PRC?
They can still build weapons but without chips accuracy will decrease -> hitting more civilians -> creating more resentment among Ukrainians.
super wątek👊
True to ab extent but it was also just disclosed that germany france and italy kept selling military equipment after crimea
Putin had to know and understand how sanctions were crippling the manufacture of weaponry. Why would he still go ahead with this war?
😂😂😂.... Прости бро.... Мы их собирались вам показать, а не хохлам...
The probably figured that they are still vulnerable to anti-tank weapons.
Wasn't waterproof... Why do we find Bosch stuff in tanks otherwise...
still Russia held out for 8y and then l a u n c h e d a war…
Problems? Metal Ore, parts coming from Crimea? Or do you mean from sanctions?
German know-how is no longer available.
I will have to dig it out but there was a great thread a couple of weeks back about Gangsters and complex industries that explains why they are struggling to produce parts internally, let alone innovate on new technologies.
Mielenkiintoinen kuva jos nuo kranaatit tuolla tornittoman tankin sisällä on oikeita. Miksi ne on tuolla aiheuttamassa turhaa riskiä valmistuksen aikana?🤔🥶
How come India still has substantial defence imports from Russia?
Wow, that's quite a claim. It seems obvious that the Russian state will collapse, first a collapse in the field, with it the legitimacy of the state with sanctions making the situation untenable. But my assumption is, after an interregnum, a new government will be formed, no?
The sovereign individual thesis still holds up.
Try and hold Donbas? Try and keep Crimea?
This is what I was saying to the other half while he was trying to fall asleep... It all feels tenuous politically so I wondered whether Russia might end up just Duchy of Moscow++ in the end.
Yes, that is the goal: break up Russia.
Russia is not a country. It is an empire. Those people in Siberia were forced to become Russian. Maybe time for “the last empire” to split.
When might them arise for independence?
Revolutions travel around the world
People might also rebel because of Putin taking the autonomy of Russia's autonomous regions. You know better than me that they are cracks in the system to the increase control of the totalitarian state. The discontent among ethnic non-russian is palpable. Also things might get/1
pretty bad pretty soon between Armenia and Azerbaijan for Azeris are seeing an opening to take back Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey's lurking in the shadows waiting to assist. Everybody knows Putin is not going to nuke the entire world over Nagorno-Karabakh now that Russian are moving/2
troops from Georgia, Dagestan and Armenia to Ukraine making them weaker in case of sudden conflicts in the Caucasus Region.
Interesting point. It was Russian informants who outed the latest group of Russian assassins going after Zalensky
Biden’s comment Friday, March 24: Sanctions never deter. The maintenance of sanctions — the maintenance of sanctions, the increasing the pain, and the demonstration
I think they'll lead to all of the above actually, but it will take a long time and separatism will happen first.
Azerbaijan is 1st to strike against Muscva. The Emperor Has No Clothes. Aura gone. 🇺🇦's ex-president said in 2020: "🇷🇺 can foolishly, as they say, 'go on the offensive.' Can. But this will be the last trip for her, after which she will fall to pieces..."…
I have extremely mixed feelings about that scenario. On one hand, I would be happy to see Russia split into a dozen of smaller countries. OTOH, do we need several new countries having nuclear weapons? Because Russian nukes are deployed across the whole Russia…
this will be Chaos thinking of 6000 nuclear weapons spread among 8 or more different countries..
Excellent thread. Following for more. Worked for NASA in late 80s-90s. We did exchange programs and our engineers would come back amazed at what their Russiancounterparts could do with slide rulers. Like subsistence farming pretty sure that knowledge is gone too.
That makes sense. I fully expect some of the autonomous zones watching the situation in Ukraine are already making preparations. But it's going to take two breaking away to unlock the landslide. Also no guarantee that Putin wont just use tons of Novochok on 'em to kill everyone
Holly smokes! A Russian analyst predicted this will happen to USA...will it happen to Russia instead?????
Separatism goes nowhere in Russia, with the possible exception of Far East, because all, those Autonomous Republics and Oblasty, notwithstanding how impressive they look on a map, are only connected with Rest of the World by one/two roads/railways
You should have a podcast
I hope China doesn't go land grabbing (the same for Japan)
Astounding analysis.. this is history.
And... oil and gas extraction.
Energy industry affected, too.
this part seems like a critical part of the thread if this is true it means over time Russia will lose the capacity to fight, over time Ukraine could win outright. Maybe.
As much as I want to believe Russia is on the verge of economic collapse I think China will come to their rescue & Russia will become totally dependent on China. It will survive politically and economically. If Putin goes down all this might change & we could finally have peace!
Can PRC step up, surely they make everything the Russians would want?
Won't Russia just get all that it needs from China using its oil as payment?
I believe SKF are still making bearings in Russia "SKF’s factory in Russia, which makes ball bearings for Russian railway customers, will remain open until further notice." "railway customers" can also include heavy military equipment as well
Relying on components from your enemies to build weapons to attack your enemies. If that’s not insane I don’t know what it is.
Doesn't Korea apply the sanctions?
How much can China take advantage of that & help Putin? Or is most stuff that RU needs found elsewhere?
Can't China provide those?
I am afraid you may be underestimating the power of India and China in bailing them out. This will turn Russia in a servant power, but they will survive. Which is concerning because EU would have a North Korea at its gates.
They have no chip fab capability.
Trade Federation is a perfect comparison!
They Have China. Giant & High Tech Market. India.. Brasil.. Many others in Africa.. Central & South America
'We should not have made this bargain'
And it is short on copper. I remember as an erasmus student visiting Saint Petersburg in a Finnish company in 98' that was so happy that copper was not only reserved for space and military purposes
Ah yes, I covered this too, but in a bit more detail. I’m currently editing a video on the topic that’s a bit more in depth, following some fantastic suggestions. Link here:
How far and for how long can he run?
Isn't he sanctioned?
Safe abroad. What like Scripal?
safe abroad seems unlikely. even if the Ukrainian military decide not to mop up those who slipped the net, plenty of Ukrainians who will be looking to do so in a personal capacity. these folk will never be safe
A rat running away from a sinking ship. A very large and very rich rat.
We already heard #Putin: He will not stop and now he is threatening other countries, because #Europe and #NATO told him they would not intervene. Humanity must stop the #genocide and war crimes against #Ukraine now! NATO and Europe: Time is running out! #StandWithUkriane #StopWar
And where is he now?
A good example of the strategy ”take the money and run”.
Add Russia default to his name
This guy needs to be monitored 24/7. If he disappears to any bunker we need to prepare.
Last seen at an ATM in #Turkey as per Kordokovsky thread...
Russia is a free country. Not a dictature. Freedom to speak, demonstrate and use internet👌 And REMEMBER! There are no sanctions. These are special financial operations👌 @KremlinRussia_E @KremlinRussia @Ukraine @UN @CIJ_ICJ #UkraineWar
He and Rupert Murdoch, Sinclair News, and Fix News are all cut from the same cloth.
Well in Turkey he will have to be careful. I’m sure there are many Syrians who would like to have a chat with him.
He should be sanctioned worldwide and sent back to Russia from wherever he is hiding.
Chubays needs to be extradited back to Russia.
Im bookmarking this tweet because it's the most enlightening... and I don't think anyone knows this amazing stuff
Sounds like a whole bunch of Republicans these days.
Is he sanctioned?
Russia IS OVER!!!!!!!!! Crushed!!!!!! NO MORE international standing!! Global SHAME for DECADES to come!!! The world REJECTS Russia!!! We shall live WITHOUT Russia!!!!
Adverage poor Russians are even in a worse situation. They can not run away :-(
His "reforms" were implemented outside of Russia too and led to many unnecessary deaths and suffering and mafia. I hope all EU states will wake up to what we are all facing and what was Eastern Europe subjected to until now. I only wish it is not at the expense of Ukraine's blood
Chubays like many Russians run away to avoid responsibility for the actions of a monstrosity which they helped create! This monstrosity is a Russian state!
Talking about ethnonationalism, isn't it almost the same as talking about the pure race, which Hitlerian doctrine?
Where did Chubays go when he escaped Russia?
Бессовестная тварь! Гнать его надо отовсюду! Пусть возвращается к путину!
Chubs is being all-powerful if a very big exaggeration I think. He was a player back in the 90s, in the last 20 years he was pretty far from meaningful power centers.
he also knows his goose is cooked because oligarchy he created as boyar class failed to deliver their regions for submission.
Interesting discussion about what the Russians plan to do with the planes they’ve stolen from Irish aircraft leasing companies
I hope this person is on the sanctions list and that Turkey has a close eye on him.
Have you seen the #AntiPutin flag that GOOD RUSSIAN PEOPLE have designed?
непонятно как Литва стала русской исконной землей
So Chubays will also stand trial at The Hague. Sweet.
I think he exploited Russian ethnonationalism that exist even way before Russification policies were adopted by all of their governments for hundreds of years. Russification was the main idea to spread out ethnic Russians to every single Soviet Republic to maintain their power.
This is an incredible document. Can you post a link to where this came from?
Kamil, I enjoy your threads most of the time but this is simply not true and 100% made up.
Камиль, мы все зачитываемся твоими тредами, но есть ли какие-нибудь пруфы того что - ... 𝓒𝓱𝓾𝓫𝓪𝔂𝓼 𝓯𝓸𝓾𝓷𝓭𝓮𝓭 "𝓢𝓹𝓾𝓽𝓷𝓲𝓴 𝓪𝓷𝓭 𝓟𝓸𝓰𝓻𝓸𝓶" звучит очень уж сюрреалистично :/
Chubays founded WHAT? Stop lying, S&P were founded by Egor Prosvirnin on the base of his popular group in VK
Archive photo of Chubais in 1989. In his youth, he had problems with weight control.
Back then lots of Russians were fooled into believing Vladimir Putin would be a reforming "liberal."
Btw, his last name is Chubais.
Masha Gessen thought highly of him in her 2012 book "The man Without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin," but I guess that's not good enough for you.
Any proofs on this one?
That Polish and Hungarian border though. @panyiszabolcs @AndrasSimonyi Giertych's assertions? Krisztian Ungvary believes them, and he once wrote such an awesome book that I tend to believe him. (I know, very stupid of me, but still a better metric than some other ones.)
Could you please elaborate on this. I was shocked initially, but thought your info could be right. Now I’m seeing a lot of people saying that this is BS.
"Chubays funded Sputnik and Pogrom" Source: trust me bro.
Ты реально думаешь, что англоязычным можно заливать в ушу любую херню?
Interesting zone of grey in western Ukraine.
For those wondering, the only evidence that Chubays is connected to Sputnik & Pogrom is a brief mention in an interview with oligarch Peter Aven, where he says Chubays told him he liked the outlet. He "funded" them with a 5$ subscription fee, if the story is even true.
What does this map depicts??
This map, why is easternmost Ukraine left out? Did they imagine they'd be able to "share" that with Poland and Hungary to placate them?
That Ethno-nationalism always goes authoritarian.
He literally called it "Pogrom"? Oh FFS! It's cursed. CURSED!
Here's the Google Lens, if someone's interested.
So Chubays built the structure and Oligarchs back it up. Then Dugin and…ah, what’s his name! Sarkhov? I think. ‘Expansionist Russia is physics.’
Russia really has a media outlet called, "Pogrom"?
Remember that Nixon got his start responding to a Texas wanted ad in a newspaper placed by businessmen looking for a politician to groom and back. Kleptofascists are a threat to the US as well and the Koch Brothers are their spiritual twins.
is that the same right ear at the ATM? It looks close.
Wait, Chubays chose Putin? What's going on here
I don’t think he got tired of democracy, He knew communists will win the election in 2000 and finish the democratic experiment. So he chose a lesser evil Putin, that they fought they could control.
So it was not only Yeltsin’s fault to shift the power from political parties to the secret services.
You don’t explain why they choose Putin? Why not anyone elee?
Putin left KGB in 1990 to return to St. Petersburg as ally of St P's liberal mayor, Anatoly Sobchak, known since his university days. Served as Sobchak's chief of external relations then elevated to deputy mayor's post in March 1994.
Entered Kremlin in 1996, when Sobchak lost power. Chubais recommended Putin for a job in the Yeltsin administration. Not "booted him out of nothing."
From 1997 to 1998, served as head of Main Audit Directorate and presidential deputy chief of staff. Took charge of FSB, successor to the KGB, in July 1998. From March 1999, combines FSB responsibilities with work as a secretary on Russia's Security Council.
This is a different aspect of Putin's rise to power than I've read before - not inconsistent but just different - and I'd love to read more about it any refs? exploding bombs all over Russia, killing hundreds, and blaming the Chechens, against whom Putin then professed vengeance.
Interesting, learning a lot from this thread, thanks. @bellingcat
I vaguely remember Chubais and this period…
miałeś racje z tymi ruskimi libkami
Why was he wearing his dad’s suit?
And such a system is inherently unstable in the long run.
comentou isso hoje das opções de desestatização
#OligarchiesForDummies has been my battlecry since #TheDeplorableDon stole the election…in 2016.
Sir! Western World was All in...
that was how Kremlin/Putin created a new boyar class. And people in the West mistakenly believe the oligarchs had power and Putin was a cop-on-the-take a la Scorsese films.
See Christia Freeland’s outstanding book Sale of the Century for the whole inside story on him and the oligarchs
Is he one of the sanctioned I hope?
Dude, you cannot cash out from an ATM lol
Sie sollten sich nirgends sicher fühlen!!!
‘Card declined, contact your card issuer’
Google has it spelled "Chubais".
"Anatoly Borisovich Chubais is a Russian business oligarch who was responsible for privatization in Russia... in the early 1990s. He was a key figure in introducing a market economy... after the fall of the Soviet Union."…
Wait, but, who took this photo and why?!
Als Hugo de Jonge morgen ontslag neemt of krijgt wordt Rutte dan populairder bij de Nederlanders of niet?
Surprised he didn't wear a mask to further cover up his face! They don't make those in Russia? 🤣
Amazing catch by the photographer
THX for your input
U 76788 bjjj mm b988g
Second red revolution which kills the intelligence of Russia?
They should not be allowed to allocate to another country. Unfortunately, they can.
Rats are getting off the sinking ship and taking their money with them.
He’s done one
Where's he going though?🤔
You cannot get an economically meaningful amount of money from a cash machine.
The rat leaves the sinking ship.
Qu'il ne disparaisse jamais des radars. Son dossier est bien rempli...
1) you don't 'cash out' at an ATM 2) using a local ATM is what people do when they are in a foreign country, that's how it works. 3) Most people gets local currency when they arrive in a foreign country.
Not to critisize your Optimism here, why is he drawing money from an atm is a sign of the collapse of russian. Maybe he just needs some cash to buy something from Starbucks at the airport?? 🤷‍♂️
Do ATMs pay out billions these days?
Why havent you been reviewed by Twitter? Most of your posts look like conspiracy theories to me. Why is it that withdrawing money from an ATM is eccuated to be ousted from Russia?
Do Turkish ATMs dispense billion dollar notes? Come on, a photo of him at an ATM says nothing about him. It does make me wonder if all the previous parts of this thread were equally fantastical, though.
Russian people will know this war was lost. But it will take time (months), when defeated veterans come back home…
Another argument for upcoming collapse/turmoil in Russia: once the war ends, 100k+ soldiers return back to Russia with the same feeling as those who fought in Donbas in 2014: "We were betrayed by the state/ Putin" Multiply this effect by the 'sanctions/economic collapse factor'
Nial is self-marketed storyteller, that’s all.
Thanks god, you are wrong in this case.
Why not be rather optimist about the effectiveness of the domestic propaganda? – creativeness is the limit, coverage exists – bojars are dependent on the system – narodnost wanna believe
I think you're over-egging Nial Fergusson. Love your threads, by the way.
Niall Fergusson is a nincompoop. You're not wrong, although Western tankie and academic opinion isn't that naive, especially at this stage.
Nial is wrong on Russia and China many times
Russia revolution is not "exceedingly rare." We witnessed one just 30 years ago . Three in modern times - Zsar - Bolsheviks/Communism - Fall of communism/rise of oligarchs.
Nial Ferguson wrong? How probable is that? 90%? 100%?
In other words, we were lied to, bullshited to and hoodwinked. Like you said, Putin thought it was going to be over in 24 to 72 hours with the capture of Kiev, just like Syria, it's going be a cakewalk. He thought wrong.
Agree. @nfergus, What's your alternative to prolonging the war?…
Spot-on. There is no saving face, or saving grace for Russia. Best they can do is save what remains, but only by exiting all of Ukraine… now!
If a frog had wings it wouldn’t bump it’s ass when it hopped.
Because a treaty means Ukraine is not Russia.
Ferguson is (another) hugely overrated British historian. In any case, that must’ve been written a few weeks ago.
Niall Fergussen is a Russian mouthpiece
not if he gets possession of Crimea confirmed internationally.
Ukraine has become a second Afghanistan for Russia, but with accelerated and amplified consequences.
Russians are cutting off their nose to spite their face. Never never never forget. #UkraineStrong #DefeatRussianAggression #PutinIsaWarCriminal
That depends on how he presents it. If he declares "denazification" succeeded, with the media blackout, how would Russian-on-the-street know differently.
"Nial Fergusson. I think he's wrong. " Always a safe bet. Because he's always wrong.
I think you're underestimating the power of propaganda here. Putin could probably withdraw completely and claim Ukraine has been denazified and therefore he doesn't need to occupy it any more.
I've always suspected Ferguson is a contrarian hack who thinks himself far smarter than he actually is and this only further confirms that opinion.
Nail Ferguson very rarely right.
More serious point - Yeltsin came to power after a ‘coup’ as was Brezhnev the quiet deposing of Khrushchev. Then of course 1917-23. Regime change in Russia is more often than not revolution over past 100yrs.
Nial says revolutions are rare - before the Internet maybe.
Seemingly endorsed by Putin and Shoigu, this leaflet purports to be instructions to the foremen in Pskov [nowhere near Ukraine]: 6: Get up 7: Morning ablutions 8: Breakfast 9: Attack Ukraine 12: Lunch 1 pm: Take Kiev 6 pm: [Oleg] Gazmanov concert 11 pm: Fireworks
Boy, they were wrong, „wrongst“!
Probably told Xi the same thing. Ukraine collapses like Afghanistan, Russia dominates Europe Biden pilloried as new Chamberlain, becoming politically impotent as republicans take over to preside over America becoming Canada with nukes
Daily Routine of the Pskov Paratroopers 0600. rise 0700. morning toilet 0800. breakfast 0900. attack on ukraine 1200. dinner 1300. capture of Kyiv 1800. Gazmanov's concert 2100. salute Love it. Schadenfreude ist das schönstes Freude!
Oops looks like they got in over their heads. Big mistake underestimating The bravery,Courage and fight within the Ukrainian people and their leader. God Bless Ukraine. The world is amazed and incredibly proud of you.💙🇺🇦💛🇺🇦💪
Zelensky was the first Ukrainian politician who could not be bought off. Any of the others would have handed over the keys without a fight and taken a jet to Dubai with a heavy suitcase.
Lol. Every time someone said the war will be short and bloodless...obviously didn't learn a thing from history
Even stupid media was claiming 1-3 days. Can’t walk that back. Too many talking heads. “Experts” too.
A dumb and delusional enemy is a gift, but I wish they were smarter sometimes. The destruction of Mariupol didn't help them to achieve ANYTHING besides criminal cases opened in a dozen of countries for crimes against humanity. Yet they continue
Ukrainians resisted because overall they liked their democratic based lifestyle. It wasn’t long ago their were going to work and to school, shopping, getting groceries, going to parties and meeting in restaurants, etc. Democracy provided that lifestyle, not fascism. #Democracy
Nennt man Überheblichkeit, Tunnelblick oder mit 180 zuerst am Unfallort...
it’s not propaganda, it was a meme, jeez
This is interesting. As my rusty Russian allows me to read this schedule: 7a.m. - morning toilette 8a.m. - breakfast 9a.m. - attacking Ukraine 12a.m. - lunch 1p.m. - taking Kiev 6p.m. - Gazmanov's concert 9p.m. - artillery salute sgnd: Minister of Defence S. Shoigu apvd: V. Putin
Zabawny ten plan zdobycia Kijowa. Coś poszło nie tak.
When (do you think) the war will end?
@ kamilkazani where was this timetable found? Who had it? Who knew of it? Is this for real?
Now it looks like kindergarten children plan. Something like: Kiev is weak, we will take them in 4 hours and then it’s time to celebrate.
I'd argue this is not because of putin's anger, but more because of no proper management & ability to delegate. Much of russian's military senior staff got there not because of skill, but because of drinking with proper people.
Alles alte und fette Säcke welche jahrelang Geld aus der Armee abgezweigt haben!!!!
The deaths of generals rather look like the results of special ops.
Aren't they sending generals to the frontline because of the lack of encrypted communication?
I hope many more follow in his path.
Perhaps better comms may have saved some of these staff officers from being killed. Mobile phones, which many Russian soldiers are using, including the staff officers ,are easily intercepted.
Total breakdown in CCC. The Russian army is inept.
The Russian army does not have non-commissioned officers at the unit level who get things done. Generals are the front line because the Kremlin fears a professional army. There is no one else to be sure orders are carried out.
ну и хер с ними
Yes. They figure better to risk a bullet in Ukraine trying to carry out Putin’s harebrained orders than get a guaranteed one for disobeying orders
Or in today's case, committing suicide.
... And so they directly receive the consequences of 'their' failure - and conveniently die a heroic death on the battlefield at the same time. So they can't desert or be made POW anymore and explain to the West how the Russian people and military really see things.
And they would rather take their own life than return back to face Putin. That to me is a very bad sign…very, very bad!
Those ridiculously big hats make great targets.
P should go and sort it out himself on the frontline.😁
From what I heard, Russia doesn’t have a good,officer corps like the US and Europe. Russia has to send the Generals to the front to issue orders rather than staying from the field of war.
Putin’s furious - or - he’s calculating. Maybe he’s sending those that could possibly be a threat to the front to be taken care of, which has a better look than defenestration - and the same result.
The more Generals eliminated the more there is a leadership void in Putin’s immoral war. The more there’s a void the more discontent will be churned up. #SlavaUkrainii
this is where u are caught bullshitting sadly.
This is not true, Russian military tactics mandate top heavy decision making. Mandating that generals are always close to combat lines.
This is pretty wide speculation you should proof. There is just as good a chance putin is not interfering at all and the generals considering their prescens to be vital. (The ukranians also seem to have considerable intell on where the commanders will be at what time).
Front line or Fenestration
Putin needs to go to the front line to figure it all out
If he’s losing the stop askin for help from Nato
Wait, this is from a Russian TV? It's brutally honest, I am surprised if they allowed it to air.
(No comment)
He called it "war"! To the gulag.
Hi, I can't find any information on "". Are people in Russia hearing this message?
Ukraine is winning the Twitter war. Russia is well on its way to meeting its objectives in the East and South East of Ukraine - demilitarization and denazification. The UA is days aways from being routed. Don't fall for the Twitter body and material count of the Russian forces.
And all this is told in 🇷🇺 TV? Are these people still alive?
hope Russia will crash as a country, it's too big pain in the ass.
Can't believe the statement "we are dragged into a bloody, long, intractable war". Seriously? Russia wasn't "dragged". It attacked what didn't belong to them. And now they're losing. And they will continue to lose. #FuckRussia
Putin made statements before that the world shouldn’t exist if Russia didn’t exist and according to your very thorough thread, Russia could be at the point of nonexistence, how likely is Putin to use nuclear weapons in the near term???
Are all these clips from free Russian TV? They seem pretty frank and sober...are they viewed widely in Russia?
As said before: compulsive gambling disorder .
Finally, a man with his brain attached to his head.Is he still alive?
KAMIL .. I got entire 60 tweet thread and have posted various places.. took out most pics and edited a few typos but otherwise intact.. THANK YOU .. for helping the Western world understand! HERE IS THREAD LINK @cnni @maddow @USNATO @POTUS @guardian
has this guy been novochuked? I can't imagine he's still alive
He speaks truth. Also, too late. Ya bois r rekt & ded. Turn around now. Save whatz left of dem.
moral das tropas
Is it In Russia ? Did he say "war"? 😅
Strelkov - I thought it was Strelnikov from Dr Zhivago!
Did he say war? On tv? In Russia?
Aside from Muscva's betrayal that ex-defense minister of "Donetsk Peoples Republic" scents 👇🏽, "DPR" reintroduced 🇺🇦 currency it had outlawed in Dec 2015. In Melitopol, no locals could be tempted to demonstrate their "happiness" at being subjugated - even for 1200 devalued rubles
🇷🇺 keeps on announcing that it has taken Rubizhne. Why's 🇷🇺shelling Rubizhne again & again then? Even Strelov, "Donetsk People's Republic" ex-defence "minister," scents defeat for 🇷🇺's "LPR" & "DPR." He fears 🇺🇦's new waves of soldiers in the face of "conscripted cannon fodder."
Enemy? I thought they were characterised as brothers?
What channel is that? Is that broadcasted in russia? Are russians able to see that?
Not making any progress...? Going in outnumbered, slowly pacing, targeting mostly military objectives... Far more difficult & dangerous for your own troops than just bombing everything, and then going in... Having captured massive terrain. I'd say very succesful operation..
Sunt căcați pe ei!
Why is Strelkov a commentator and not an active participant?
Somehow Russia is the victim and was “dragged into” a long bloody war?
#Putin played poker like he does #Crimea The Russian army is in ruins And #PutinLost. 🥀🍷 ✌️✌️✌️
Genuine question - how is this analyst allowed to criticize the wisdom of the "Special Operation"? I thought that disagreeing with the Kremlin's line was against the law.
He has the guts to talk about war on TV?
Wait. So why is zelensky considering neutrality, asking for weapons, given Ukraines crushing the russians. Stop propaganda
Who is Strelkov and is this Russian channel watched inside Russia???
Said that in Russia and still alive?
This is fresh. This is nowhere else to find. “Experts” dressed down to 🤡s.
Outstanding discussion on the failing Russian economy. It looked like your thread was going to also project what the future might look like down the road say a year from now.
That was a massacre!
British WW2 historians compare: Eighth Army fighting in the emptiness of the Western Desert, conpared to the bocage in Normandy
This is THE thing tactically, from my remote impressions. They don't get ambushed in any "sophisticated" sense (Afghanistan). They just get exterminated, like shooting fish in a barrel. This is more a function of poor tactical prep than the hubris you mention, which is real.
The last vehicle looks like a vanlife special, custom converted to an RV.
Really intelligent points I haven't seen raised anywhere else. This earns 1 follow (it should be 100,000 LOL)
I am sorry (not really), but I am gloating. ☺️☺️☺️
Just like the Romans during the Boudiccan revolt AD 60-61 while the Iceni & their allies fought a guerrilla campaign the Romans couldn’t defeat them but once the Romans got the Iceni & their allies out into the open they defeated them.
o que eles dizem neste vídeo? (bastante gráfico)
Got it, @Mihaela813! I'll remind you about this on Sunday, 27 March 2022 at 05:41 GMT+0000.👍
When they come home will they still be able to feast on dirt and Cabbage as the all glorious Russian forever peasants Army?
In one if the few real combats experiences the Russian Wagner mercenaries had in Syria was with US special forces. US destroyed 320 Wagner soldiers in 3 hours and took no casualties themselves
If you're not gonna quote or reference them then why should we believe they exist?
Wow, very interesting !
Shame more of us didn't listen to this man then.
Now this guy's interview is proper "realism" not Mearsheimer bs.
What is this from? Very very interesting...
What is this interview from?
Yes: one of the other reasons Putin and Shoigu expected a swift and easy victory was the poor fight the Ukrainians put up in 2014. Except Poroshenko did something about that, and those reforms took hold
I read a piece from @RUSI_org that said that Russian military pilots, despite sorties in Syria weren't as well trained (skills & variety of manoeuvre) as their NATO equivalents eg RAF.
Where is this from?
The mercenary in the video, Marat Gabidullin, also published a detailed book describing the experience of RU mercenaries but there doesn't seem to be an EN version yet.
"...we have arrogantly despised our enemies for generations..." Yes, very dark stuff in the pages of history
Well he was certainly on the money wasn’t he !
What so the longer source of that clip?
Does anybody know when this interview occurred?? It was before Feb 24th?
Wise observations. Too bad no one Russian military was listening.
Not sure if airforce gained real combat experience in Syria. They just threw bombs on cities, like on a shooting range. There was no professional air defense. Now they avoid Ukrainian air space.
Did Wagner not try to attack an US defended oil field and got destroyed before firing a Single shot? That's ground combat experience right there!
This war has more propaganda than reality… DO NOT TRUST ONLINE MEDIA !
Another thing is this: the longer this stalemate continue, the stronger Ukrainian identity would become. By now it is strong enough. I watched YouTube video by a Ukrainian immigrant in the US. He said he used to be cosmopolitan, now he is nationalist.
Wise words from a wise man.
Der ganze thread ist gut, der Teil aber sehr interessant @markrudolph2701
This was a great story about the Wagners.…
lmao yes they took pic and leave ass off
love the "expers" typo. plural of "expers" is "experses"
Holy moly: one Kamil brings on more news than the army of “reporters”. (It shows how the current, centralized/pyramid media structures simply do *not* deliver on their mission.)
L'arme Russe a surtout apporté un support aérien, pas vraiment combattu. En plus les rebelles étaient sous armée. La Syrie est un leurre pour le monde.
So when are American troops in Syria forgotten by Congress getting out or they were sent to be killed by obiden.
How many people who are living on a dollar a day will this brilliant economic warfare program kill in places like Africa? Are they just collateral damage?
In your opinion, what makes pro-🇷🇺 thinks that 🇺🇸 has more significant military involvement (somewhat interpreted as "atrocities") in 🇸🇾 compared to 🇷🇺 who actually has military bases and proudly touts their "vast military experience" there? I mean, I know 🇦🇫 or 🇮🇶, but 🇸🇾???
This is very interesting very good research. I’m surprised Igor strelkov sounds so reasonable despite him being responsible for this war.
The osmosis of thinking with Brexit. Choose a puppet. Exceptionalism. Media control. Jingoism. A gullible public. And then came the money into British politics.......
A hugely interesting read. Thank you for taking nf the time to put that together. Quick side note 10-15 years ago my fathers company (2 employees) did 90% of their business supplying small manufacturing equipment to Russia. Huge industries total reliant on western equipment
Wagner gets paid. One way or another. In this context it is obvious that they just wanna sell themselves and their “experience”….
Probably the most interesting and intelligent piece I've read on this subject. Thank you.
International coalition did a lot in Syria, but didn't communicate too much because of terrorism risk on the soil of its member. Thus, Russia presented itself a the winner in Syria.
le thread est affolant et rempli d'informations intéressantes
Personenkult hat noch nie lange funktioniert!!!!
Shameless picture...
Cmon… nobody actually compared him to subedei, did they? Even for professional throne sniffers, that’s too much
WTF. I knew there was a level of LARPing when it comes to the Russian army but this shit is next level.
Shoigu may be killed already with other generals, not for his losses of tanks (Putler is all way in rockets) but only on fear of loosing tiny piece of power, because of widespread rumors in Moscow week ago about military taking power parallel to Putler.
(Possibly sensitive)
Biz Türkler subutay diyoruz .cengizin komutanı olan subutay dünyanın gelmiş geçmiş en büyük kurmaylarından birisidir.peki ya Şoygu?
Wasn't Subudei, like a mongol, that contributed to the founding of The Golden Horde?
400,000 American trucks delivered thanks to Lend-Lease vs. only 80,000 produced domestically during WWII ( probably a lie anyway).
Die Russen haben den 2.Weltkrieg mit den Verbündeten 🇺🇲🇬🇧🇫🇷 gewonnen da sie einen Feind und Besatzer aus ihren Land vertrieben haben. Jetzt sind sie🇷🇺 der Feind und werden sie aus 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 vertrieben und besiegt. Die Russen haben aus der Geschichte nichts gelernt.
The Iron Corridor. Russians don’t learn that they would’ve capitulated were it not for American military supplies…
The Russian economy has been backwards since 1917. It will never be able to adopt true capitalism.
Lend lease, yes
Studebaker was founded and were built in my hometown!
Those US trucks + spam got them through that war, now they have neither.
Without the American truck, they would have been fucked. Well, fucked more.
And *with* Ukrainian soldiers
AND supplied by UK in the treacherous Artic Convoys.
Little was talked about this, ever.
The US Lend-Lease Act saved the USSR from annihilation in 1941: • 400K jeeps & trucks • 14K airplanes • 8K tractors • 13K tanks • 1.5m blankets • 15m pairs of army boots • 107K tons of cotton • 2.7m tons of petrol products • 4.5m tons of food
And Ukraine was on their side too.
And 150 million pounds of Spam
According to Anthony Beevor, when Zhukov toured the battlefront at Stalingrad, he rode in a Jeep.
Whenever we refer to the horrors endured by the USSR during WWII, it is important to note that they first signed a non-aggression pact w/the Nazis before being attacked by them. Stalin was a murderous tyrant, cut from the same evil cloth as Hitler himself.
FIAT MONEY greatest economic power😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
They also had Marshal Gregory Zhukov, a truly great tank in the T-34, and ~12 million veteran soldiers. The Red Army of 1945 was a tidal wave of military capability.
Not Russia fought on the US side, but USA fought (help) on the side of USSR! 🙄 Do not confuse, please!
You seem to have forgotten that Hitler and Mussolini and Japan were supported by the United States. This is not my nonsense American mainstream media report。
(Possibly sensitive)
Yes, the US and Russia fought on the same side during WWII because they had a common enemy. It didn't mean that the US embraced communism. As now in Ukraine Azov fighters are fighting the enemy with them. It doesn't mean Ukraine embraces Nazism.
Just hope this guy is no longer around
Hi Kamil, German sources state that with the US Lend & Lease program the Soviet Union received: 14.800 planes 427.000 trucks 50.000 Jeeps 420.000t Aluminium 2,12mt steel 2,5mt oil & gasoline…
Excellent thread
This is so true! I hate russian narrative of fighting alone in great patriotic war. But paradoxly it is one reason of russian current struggle.
And: Ukrainians and Belorussians were a big and important part of the Red Army!
The mythos of Russian power grew from the disastrous failure of every army that has ever invaded it. It’s very big & very cold in winter. And home court advantage always matters.
The second world war started VERY badly for Stalin. They were massively helped by the US at the beginning. Otherwise, they would have failed. Something Putin "forget" to say ..
They were defending. Now they're invading. Building an invasion force is considerably harder than organizing defense at all cost.
They conveniently forgot that much of the fighting by the Red Army against the German invaders was done by Ukrainians. German veterans unanimously agree that it was the tenacity shown by Ukrainians, the refusal to give up their lands, which spelled defeat for them.
And the other difference is that the Germans invaded Russia, then got hopelessly mired in the mud, had overextended and unreliable logistical lines, got themselves boxed in, and then lost the advantage of movement and attack, and were met by determined and motivated resistance.
Also that Ukrainians fought as part of that army
Mitovi ne pomažu u ratu, rat dobija oružana i ekonomska moć, ovo drugo fali Rusiji..
As part of the Yalta Accord, Stalin got Roosevelt to give him because Stalin persuaded Roosevelt of Russian military capability. Roosevelt agreed = appeasement. Putin thinks he can make the same kind of deal. He got Crimea as appeasement in 2014.
Also important to note that they were BEING INVADED, rather then BEING THE INVADERS. Easier to encourage morale & a will to fight when your home & existence is on the line, even when your infamously poorly equipped. They also had winter weather on their side as defenders.
A better argument is that russia forgets that their moral was great in ww2 because they were fighting in a war of extermination, russias moral has been poor in every modern conflict.
Re Russia arrogance: I have recently read Churchill's book on WW2 where he wrote the following about the allies dealings with Russia:
Love the old lend lease pics tbh
True. Soviet occupants came driving studebakers to my grandparents' farm in Lithuania on March 25th 1949. During March deportations more than 95k of Baltic people were deported to Siberia.
In WWII, Ukraine fought WITH USSR. They needed that help
Let’s also remember that it was not Russia that fought WWII but the USSR, which included also Ukrainians in far greater numbers per capita. And also Belarusians, Georgians, all other Soviet republics and ethnicities. Russia does not have monopoly on WWII victory.
Totaling $11.3 billion, or $180 billion in today’s currency were send to the USSR 400k jeeps & trucks 11k airplanes 8k tractors 6k tanks 1.5 million blankets 15 million pairs of boots 107,000 tons cotton 2.7 million tons of petrol products 3 million tons of food
They also forgot how much Germany was tied down in dealing with the West - much of the best German technology and production was spent in the air and at sea - and that was not what the Russians were fighting.
Also wwii is a horrible touch point bc the Soviet Union lost more than double the troops of any other country.
They forgot their mistake before WWII when Hitler promised Stalin he could have half of Europe and Stalin lost in Finland in 3 months. Hitler ended up turning on him and trying to take the USSR instead.
US gave all the production to many countries on top of fighting Japanese single handed projecting power around the world and Germany on the other side. UK and Russia always talk big but if US equipment and soldiers stayed home they’d either be speaking German or Japanese.
They also didn't remember, that during WWII soldiers from Ukraina was fighting in their army, not in UA army against them ...
And the morale that comes from self defense.
If they are so weak why west is afraid to take some military action on them , simple Russia is just going with very mild attacks on ukrian
Some were even saying Kiev will fall within few hours.
Have they tried to raise both eyebrows?
hahahahah russian regime is such a bluff
Oh shit, now they are really scared. Totally changed body language, posture, face. Wow
“Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia!”
So I hear Russia now has to bring in fresh cannon fodder from the east. I wonder if they are thinking of this:
Apparently someone forgot to tell the Ukrainians. Fight on Brothers and sisters. You can and will defeat Russia. Slava Ukraine Forever!! 🇺🇦 💪🏻
Yup. Def buzz kill.
Hahahahahahah this is the best video compilation of the current state of things ever. Everybody share and retweet this post please. It is downright hilarious.
Ha, he looks years older after a month.
Mira @pardoguerra un Aramburro ruso, el canta lo que le instruyan, sin mayores principios que el $$. C.c @varamburucano
This guy I guess never got punched in the face, that's why is acting sooo "tough". He need a (very) good beating; maybe to be sent in the front line of the war, if he thinks he is sooo tough.
Such deception...
This is a rare tweet of yours that I feel like you're ronk. The assumption (of decision-makers, not media personalities) was that Ukraine would fold, not that RA were THAT stronk.
Changed their tune, didn’t they?
Why haven’t they been training for eight years?
Fascinating to see that dude’s facial expression and body language change completely between those two clips.
This may make the average MRGA Russian to question the ultimate, divine wisdom of Tucker Carlson, too. Win-win.
The difference on body language in these two clips is amazing.
Soloviov is like a brainless pupet
The most striking feature of these videos is not the change of tone or "positive vibe". What is unbelievable is a TV channel with people discussing the invasion of other country this openly. Surreal. Dystopic.
"According to Putin the special military operation is really a conflict btw Russia and NATO about World dominance. Whats the situation now?" "Russia has lost 15000 troops, 7 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks. NATO hasn't arrived yet."
That was hilarious 😂😂😂
Gee, how the minor passage of time has changed hubris. 😂
"Second strongest"? I mean, don't get me wrong, UA has been absolutely fierce. France is supposedly the second strongest. And Russia obviously wasn't the strongest. I hear musings from these hardliners that they'll move into Poland. They couldn't take Romania at this point.
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Suppose our assessment of Putin's grip on power, is as overblown as our pre-invasion assessment of the Russian military. Putin would soon be heading to the graveyard of Russian history, beside the Tsars and the General Secretaries of the CPSU. It's quite possible.