1,044 replies and sub-replies as of Sep 26 2016

This is all your fault somehow
revenge of the nerds!
messenger..... bullet riddled.
President Pence will be a disaster for America just like he has been for Indiana.
with black vote, Hispanic vote, women's vote how is this possible? Is the media TRYING to make this a horse race? I think so
i.e. Reuters has black vote dropping over 15%, even though it went up the 2 elections before Obama! riiiiiight
like I said, I think they are trying to make it a horse race. But maybe this will inspire a better turnout.
They just decreased the turnout numbers for each of those demos in the likely voter models by >15% .
why did they do that suddenly?
makes the election look closer like you are saying. they claim this year will be more like 2004 than 2008-2012
its BS. they need to at least explain WHY they think black turnout goes from 69% to 59% in the year of BLM
Because why would Hillary get the record black turnout that the first black president did?
finally, black voters are significantly more female than male. Hillary is first female. also special.
Those who think it will magically drop below 2004 levels are not being intellectually honest.
Who is arguing that? Not me. I'm arguing > than 2004! Black turnout was up in 2000 and 2004.
because look at her record and LOOK AT TRUMP. He is a racist
is that true? i dont understand. i really dont understand
to think there would be LESS black voter turnout this year is crazy. Hoping this news will get out vote
so until Nate writes an article that defends with data how that is realistic, hes not being honest
not just less, but so much less that it would be the largest drop in a demo turnout in modern history!
thank you. 538's been acting like hair is on fire for months to get viewers. Other polls do not match.
nigs are always lazy, surprise surprise.
there you are! What took you so long, Mr. Chickenshit racist who hides in Twitterland
where are you getting this from?
Reuters says it in big bold letters. Most people just do not know how these #'s compare to 2012
What do you say to this Nate?
Nate never answers tweets on here. Good luck.
He used to... alt-right + bernie bros drove him into silence :(
its called white people . Still a majority of U.S. pop & older white people have a higher propensity to vote.
wealthy ppl educate their children n private schools - poor get lousy public schools. This election is proof
Women's vote? I know 3 women who say they'll vote for Clinton. Only 3. I never will. I'm a 62 y.o. white woman.
count me as #4
She's getting crushed among men. Lol
because they are too ignorant to see she is the better candidate, without question
Most will just stay home, we hate Trump, but we don't like HRC
then if Trump wins, you will deserve what you get
But this year I'm not voting for HRC, I'm voting Jill Stein and most of my family is not supporting HRC either
Because many people in those Demos aren't interested in HRC, I'm Indian, we voted for Obama by like 80%+ in 2012
some of these groups have horrendous turnouts. That's a factor.
not enough women standing up against his bullshit. Some believe he's really Pro-life and saving babies.
well my Bears sucks and i wake to even worst news...
Stupid Americans flirting with Trump...
Where is the collapse demographically? Do we know what is dragging her down?
So a model update involving 1 national poll showing him with a lead dropped her chances by 6.7%? Okay...
ok, Nate how does that happen in two hours? I'm thinking these polls are just bs
why so different from upshot and Lott/Stossell?
I heard, but didn't want to believe, that Hillary was known for "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory"; case proven.
the Debates are all that stand between us and the end of civilization.
Wow can't believe it has gotten this close u guys had her winning easily just a couple weeks ago
How convenient, with the debate being held tonight. This can't be accurate.
No black, Latino, Jewish, or "intelligent white" support...but it's a dead heat!
yeah but your map is 276 votes for clinton.
If Trump takes Colorado. It's over
it would be. any blue state with 4 or more electoral votes. not sure NC is solid red yet but maybe.
NC leans Trump. On the verge of solid Trump.
they track lack of enthusiasm for HRC but do they track desire to stop Trump?
🙄keep up the noisy projections for click bait.
because facts and actual policies other than "trust me, we're going to win" don't seem to matter to half the pop
So much denial from CTR. Complacency and overconfidence has been and will be their undoing.
The latest polling is consistent with a Clinton lead of only ~1% nationally. State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful.
HRC may go down as one of the worst candidates in history. Can't believe dems threw their eggs in her basket.
By now Elan Kriegel has seen this and has begun an adaptation strategy moving forward
we are all going to die!
The polls shouldn't be close - what is wrong with those Trump supporters, are they all blind?
We're really going to do this, aren't we...
Is this as simple as Trump is gaining the voters he needs and Clinton is not? Could us some context on what's driving this.
Take it easy. Find your safe space and chill.
If Trump wins, would all liberals flee en masse to Canada the next day, or in an orderly fashion before Jan 20th?
I prefer the "flee en masse" approach, unfortunately the average IQ of Canada will diminish sharply.
then, to keep'em out, we'd have to build a wall on our northern border in a few years
Trick question: They're all talk and no action, so neither.
Now can we panic?
she's a really terrible candidate
It’s over…and has been for awhile
The latest polling is consistent with a Clinton lead of only ~1% nationally. State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful.
That's what happens when you nominate a terrible candidate.
(Possibly sensitive)
Colorado is her firewall and its not holding up breitbart.com/big-government…
WTF is happening???? #mindblown
States not breaking up. CO still tips her way. PA as well. Nothing has changed.
three polls came out with Trump leads in CO. Clinton pulled ads months ago. Time to re-engage CO.
don't even get me started on how bad Gravis's poll was.
I'm not disagreeing but want a solid lead that doesn't rely on interpreting polls and crosstabs
I'll agree to that. It is close. And we shouldn't even be debating that. So you're point is valid.
CNN polled 71% white, 50/50 M/F and polled a LOWER hispanic rate than they got in 2012 lol
Secondly, Quin, You/Gov, Franklin and google are the most recent polls in CO aside and all had HRC up
Actually no, 2 polls showed Trump ahead in CO and the methodology in each was AWEFUL
and one of them was paid for by Breitbart. (the Gravis poll)
That doesn't mean anything.
It means everything.
No, the CNN methodology isn't awful
Yes the CNN Methodology is awful. You need to look it over. For CO it was TERRIBLE.
It wasn't. You're just desperate your candidate is losing
if we are debating polling methodology we are in a bad spot
where is the Obama Coalition?
Trump's puffing is working. Hate is more powerful than love and trump knows it.
If America votes for Trump (just like when they almost voted for W) we deserve the government we will get. Again.
America always deserves the gov't it gets, because democracy.
a govt that flames racial tensions, uses govt agencies as political weapons, and pays Iran under the table?
I don't deserve it! The WORLD doesn't deserve it, just like the world didn't deserve W.
who by some sorcery decided Trump is more "liberal" than Hillary.
Tell that to the bravehearts who somehow have this weird frothing hatred for manking and say ..
Clinton is more like W than Trump is. She's a war monger
Trump has a major hard on for bombing the hell out of the Middle East.
Not has hard as transsy HRC has. She has a history of voting for wars.
The ones Trump supported?
Nope. The ones HRC voted for. Responsible for thousands of lives
So the Afghanistan and Iraq wars were Hillary's fault not the fault of the people who falsified Intel to justify them.
HRC voted for the war. She also gets credit for the mess in Syria and Libya. Let's not forget the Russia reset too
Then convince folks why Clinton's a GOOD candidate...
WTF? How is she good in general?
She's experienced, even tempered, has ACTUALLY POLICY PLANS, cares about all people...
She cares about herself, she doesn't give a fuck about you.
Experienced at what? Riding her Bill's coattails? And having an unfunded wishlist isn't a plan..
tell that to Trump. His plans are "secret", no ideas on how to implement, & will cost billions.
How will Trump fund his huuuge military buildup and massive tax cuts for the top 1%?
the double standards in this election are completely disgusting.
why is she required to be a "GOOD" candidate while he's only required to be "not hillary"?
She has the experience to be a great President. Trump has nothing but hate and corruption.
I love that you think Hillary defines hate while calling me a libtard. Bravo.
meanwhile u have a pile of dogdoo on Rudy as your profile pic. Nice #hate u hater!
right after u rant your hate all over America loving patriots u braindead obamadrone
You obviously love all Americans. I salute you.
u obviously hate a lot of Americans and u hate America too, I don't salute u lowlife
Your opinion of me is irrelevant sweetness.
Romney and McCain had experience and you said the same stuff about them.
I just joined Twitter a few weeks ago. How did I say the same things about Rombot and the captured guy?
I'll tweet the NSA and CIA and ask them if you were saying those things :P
Just an educated guess. All left-wing fanatics did. At some point, people would just tuned it out
But I thought Democrats loved W now? I saw pictures of Michelle Obama and Bush snuggling the other day.
W was terrible, but he pushed for funding so that museum could be built.
As opposed to the Utopia that "Glorious Leader" has provided to us over the past eight years?
Compared to the economy in 2008, yes. Obama has done a great job cleaning up a Republican mess just like BC did
Well, I,don't deserve it, I have never voted for a Rep.Pres., and I will move to Costa Rica if Trump wins. @NateSilver538
But Hillary is closer to W Bush than Trump is.
I agree that Trump is far less qualified than either Hillary or W.
Except then, nuclear war (Trump keeps asking "WHY don't we nuke 'em?") wasn't an actual possibility.
This last week alone, 13 polls showed her ahead, 3 behind, the avg of those ahead was 2.8%
Stop pissing in my porridge. She can't be THAT weak a candidate.
Oh yes she can, America has woken 2 the fact that she has no ethics, poor judgement, is power mad, lacks honesty
she is that weak. She will probably barely win and be an unpopular President.
She is a terrible human & a terrible candidate & cannot be allowed to b president.
please dont humanize her by saying bad human. She is just a sexless emotion less thing.
Said the guy voting for an ignorant, lying bigot who has no qualifications & a well-documented history of fraud.
I don't think she's a bigot, just an opportunist.
I don't care what you think. It's just what you think.
Running a successful business isn't a qualification?
insert (he filed bankruptcy 4 times) line here. Liberals know nothing.
I mean, if you gave me $885 billion in tax payer money I could prolly be successful too
she is. Trump represents ts change, outsiders, and strength. Hillary represents crony's and cough cough cough
You greatly overestimate her.
Lol The ONLY person trump could beat? Clinton! #LeftMedia outsmarted itself...again
lol Nate isn't even trying to pretend anymore. #ClickBait538
She had a huge lead here on CO, now it's a dead heat? I want Trump, but not excited about onslaught of ads /visits
Trump just annoyed he's spending 100 million on TV adds. He saved it all for the final push 👏👏👏
He's looking smarter and smarter everyday.
She pulled all ads for CO. Trump dumping 140 mill into ads until election.
not true he doesn't have 140 mil he has 9 Left
No, he's already planning a 140 mill ad buy doubles crooked Hs. Ad buy. Stop lying
Guess I better buckle up..! I'll be happy for CO to go red again. My once strong R state has gone lib
Her huge lead was based on Dem over samples. She was never really ahead by much when you broke down the samples.
Makes sense. Which may be the only part of this election that does.
we'll see how that plays out. Tonight will go a long way towards providing clarity
You should be happy about it if you want Trump
I am. Just bracing for the onslaught. But M happy..!
Get out and knock on doors. I would if I were you.
Yep, just signed up. I'm a late Trump supporter..and GOP in CO is a mess.
Glad you went Trump.
Have to say..not sure I'm pro Trump as much as I'm anti Clinton.
Trump wants to be allies with Russia. They'd be a great friend in the fight against ISIS
Give the man a chance. Hillary will start a war with Russia. She's already threatened them.
He's got my vote for sure. Doesn't have my heart
yeah. This election is freaking horrifying. This country has some truly ugly realities to face about itself.
That is an absolute lie, Her national polling average is 2.6% LOL
you're ruining my day.
Poor little snowflake.
It was a joke. Things are fine.
BAHAHAHA! Okay, you all keep circle-jerking each other with that and we'll see you on Nov. 8th.
Showing other models/poll aggregator isn't "circle jerking"...but at least we know where your mind is. 😂
You people live in an echo chamber of mutual admiration and groupthink. Intellectual equivalent.
"an echo chamber of mutual admiration"...how profound. 😂
Truthfully, please keep posting dismissive emojis like an adult all the way to Nov. 8th. Pretty please.
You're a caricature. And I'll be busy in Florida doing GOTV and early voting Miami-Dade.
This is hard evidence that 45% of AMericans are dumber than shit.
Yeah I can't believe that many people are dumb enough to vote for Hillary.
I agree. Hillary supporters are beyond hope.
This is hard evidence that leftists are living in a complete fantasy, out of touch with reality.
and statements like this are just gonna drive more voters to trump
You mean the Clinton supporters? True.
No, just smarter than you.
If you have "Deplorable" in your name, there is no way in Hell you can POSSIBLY be smarter than me.
Unfortunately, deplorables are not able to participate in rational discussion. Many morons to block today.
man, I wonder why poor people vote trump
Found Mitt Romney's alt account.
to say voting for trump makes people stupid grossly overestimates the intelligence of Hillary voters.
That's a crazy attitude. Clinton is a terrible candidate.
Terrible candidate is still better than the alternative by a wide margin
Yeah the dumb shits that support liberalism.
yeah. Hillary voters are beyond dumb.
I thought we were deplorable...
think how stupid he average person is. And then remember that half the population are dumber than that!
yet they were smart when that idiot Obama was elected?
and not to mention racist like nate silver peddling suspect and obviously biaed gop leaning polls
true. How could 45% support a lying politician who has accomplished nothing, taken bribes, email scandal, etc.
Same way dumbshits could think a dimwit like Trump could even mow a yard.
do you own a plane and have a model wife.
Obama already proved that 52% of voting Americans are dumber than $hit. @NateSilver538
You have no redeeming value and will be blocked.
retreat to your safe space, moron.
Ben Carson is his biggest cheerleader and he is a dumb ass brain surgeon
that's what scares me more than anything!
Let's make it scarier: They are armed to the teeth.
today more than yesterday
You're right, blacks & Hispanics, @HillaryClinton core voters are very dumb & violent
yep. They will vote for a person the lies to the FBI yet alone the American people and gets away with it
Both the candidates lie. Politicians lie. Actually, Clinton lies. Trump is a bullshit factory.
Sorry to hear you feel that way about Clinton supporters.
Sorry to learn that you exist.
And that I'm not alone. You might be much more sorrowful in November. Try not to be a faux intellectual snob. It's unbecoming
Try not to be a rightwing shitbag. I know it may be too late, but try anyway because I told you to.
Try to stay away from your wifes son. Hes scared of you after you touched him.
Are you going on a shooting spree with the rest of the trumpanzees when Trump loses?
If there are millions of us and we're armed and dangerous, why dare to antagonize? You think we're safe.
If national polls of the 2012 electorate are showing Trump ahead, we have a landslide inbound
Click, click, click
I'll come back to this tweet after he wins. In the meantime, I'm packing for Canada.
I will never hear from you again...
Timothy you think he will actually win?
Amazing isn't it? How far ahead she was. Now, a dead heat, trend lines "awful". #NateCookingTheNumbers
It was so predictable. Media has got to keep it close to drive $$. It's a dangerous, sad reality.
They sure do. They need the advertising $$. I thought Nate was above that. I was wrong. #538MainstreamMedia
Yep, we were both wrong.
Better stock up on Adderall and Xanax. You are going to need it on November 9!
Adderall and Xanax?? Huh?
lol that is a very massive conspiracy you are imagining as all the polling comps. would have to be in too
wait you think these numbers are wrong?
why would Nate do this to the public? Ugh
These are Fox people. Updates every 20 mins.
oh so there's nothing to worry about whew! She's got this in the bag
I still can't see her losing the E.C. No way she dropped THIS much.
no need to vote if she's so ahead in the polls though, this easy as pie!
Already early voted. 😁
She's going to smash him tonight anyway.
I agree...if she can stay standing for that long without falling down she will win
Thank god! Prefer that to any more of the BS we've been getting! #SettleItInSmash
Trump is up in Florida and Nevada. After that all he needs is 1 of: CO, PA or NH.
Here is the actual map:
hey camo jack why don't you worry about your imaginary "European race war"
Haha. That's what Daddy is going to take care of 😊
sure keep reading your racist fantasy fairy tales...or you can join us in 2016
you're disgusting and the reason why I will never vote for trump
Guess you gotta get those shekels.
Houston shooting. Gunman, a lawyer, dead. 9 injured. Off topic, kinda.
Never off topic. Not in 'Murica!
Tracy is this anti semite racist fool for real?!
he is & I blocked his ass.
let's hope just worried he will look like the "come back kid" is all 😔😒
I'll be voting early here in FL. :)
I did absent vote for Florida too #WhereItCounts
Exactly correct. Just vote.
then DT will win narrowly but if those comes out and vote then clinton landslide
yea, but if young, white women, blacks, Hispanic, whites with col turnout is low
the only DT can win is if dems turnout is low back to 2004 levels.
“Fox people”? So, what, you mean like #furries or something? 🤔 (smh #Dems #GOP)
“WHY CAN'T THESE MOTHER ████ERS –THIS #BasketOfDeplorables– JUST VOTE #Hillary!?”
He has traded reality in for clickbait...he has much lesser value if the race isn't a "dead heat"
Especially with a candidate like Trump.
Absolutely. She was an odds on fav 2 weeks ago, 70-30. Now it's a dead heat? Not possible.
This makes no sense. The race is dead even. Nate didn't generate all the polls from 20+ polling companies
You will see it begin to separate again closer to election time...just wait.
This is from FOX! How can the numbers be so upside down?
They did the same thing in 2012.
You know we can go back and look, right? It didn't happen.
Huh?? Please, go back and look...
It most definitely did happen. Go back and look.
I did & do everyday. Obama was never less than 60% favorite. I don't think u realize the danger
Man, study...study.
Exactly correct.
They need a horse race for the advertising dollars. There is no way she droppedthat far that fast.
I am telling u as someone who thinks Trump is unfit to serve: you are in a serious denial. Wake up
Agreed, Dems are becoming Delusional, as a Berner thankfully I am immune to such things
They did the same thing in 2012
I am telling you that we are talking reality. Race isn't close...
Pardon me for being skeptical of your "reality".
I will not pardon you. Study and learn...
Glad to help
Look at other sites from 2012...
You are missing the point. Nate reported reality then. Now, he is following the script of others..
But you just told me to go back and check!! Which one is it?
He was working for someone else last time...
Check other sites. My point is that Nate is playing the 'Click Game' this cycle to generate 💰..
Other sites show the same thing, the race is tightening
You are an egg with zero followers...troll on.
You just don't like the truth, the race is tightening, Dems should have picked Bernie. Oh Well, Gabbard 2020!
Could it be that you don't like the results this year?Nate is using the same process! Seriously,wake up.
LMAO!! He is not using the 'same process (model)'..I can guarantee that...
dead heat after the GOP convention too. Amazing what nonstop media bashing and double standards will do
Really? Now you're trying to unskew the polls? How far Dems have fallen under HRC
why is this happening?
Because she is a evil lying vindictive bitch.
Walk around your house and see how many items are American made. That's why. People need jobs besides retail.
How will #Trump return manufacturing to America?
Guess that means you haven't listened to him. Penalties for bringing products back inside the US.
good luck with that. Not going to happen.
Neutral economists predict Trump's tariffs would create an economic crisis. politifact.com/truth-o-meter/…
No, I listen to him. Why do you think tariffs (i.e. penalties for bringing products into the US) will encourage mfr. in US?
why do you think businesses go overseas so often now? Business is all about the money.
I agree with you there.
exactly - return of manufacturing jobs is a fantasy, & blind to technological reality.
I do think that you're mostly correct. However, mfr jobs are on the rise... marketwatch.com/story/us-manuf…
very interesting! Is this due to automization & tech, tho? I.e., even if gross output is increased, are job opportunities?
Article makes clear that output is rising with fewer jobs.
Trump plays to hopes of high-paying mfr jobs for high-school grads; do you think this is still achievable in 21st century?
Even if we balance trade with China, these jobs will instead go to other low cost countries (e.g. Vietnam, Bangladesh)
this is where Trump's promises frighten me most - he is priming desperate people for relief that will not come.
Yes, exactly right. Then the q becomes what happens with the anger he's cultivated when his base's economic condition worsens
but the working class are also his most ardent supporters. We may all end up disappointed. At least they'll deserve it
I'm no manufacturing expert but my understanding is generally no. These jobs are gone and are not coming back.
rolling back freetrade will decimate Wal-Mart/cheap cnsmr goods. Bad surprise in store 4 trump backers
cheap crap is what we buy over & over again. If more people are working we can buy our own products.
that makes economic sense.
Time to get over being a nation of consumers. I would pay more and do pay more for USA products.
q is whether poor & working class anti-freetraders will accept higher cost of living in the near term
Can they afford to? Most Americans can't come up with $400 to cover emergency bills...
& Trump doesn't have to work at a race car pace. Changes can be timed to have the least impact on the most needy.
yet the nuanced policy required to achieve this is entirely absent from Trump campaign. W/o details, just hot air.
maybe so but tell me after 30 yrs what she Clinton achieved? Nothing!
and if more people had jobs, less would struggle. Even college grads are struggling for jobs not just uneducated
so we let our country become a consumer ridden disaster because of people's lack of personal responsibility?
Exactly. Expect many to be angry & disillusioned when their immediate economic condition drastically worsens.
I like the cultural spirit of this point, but the transition will be very painful for the poor.
not if accomplished slowly and carefully. We all support our local smaller stores if we can afford to
the least well-off will be hurt most by protectionist trade policies.
Tariffs. Thats how it used to be done.
And why it's likely to provoke an economic crisis... politifact.com/truth-o-meter/…
but a decent country left for our children & grands is important. No?
It is. Causing an economic crisis is, IMO, not a good way to accomplish the mission.
you act as if it would be fast and unpaced. BTW I support local stores because I can afford to.
getting out of this mess will cause difficult issues and sacrifice.
did the "great recession" help folks working low wage manufacturing jobs? They sure did sacrifice!
oh and besides penalties. Deregulation. Getting rid of the needless regulations. America First.
No one likes needless regulation. which ones are needless? Has #Trump said? This I haven't heard.
yes, he's said he wants to make your food less safe.
If someone you love hasn't lost a job to a company moving overseas then count yourself a lucky American.
I think everyone wants better jobs in the US. Independent experts don't seem to think Trump's plan will make that happen.
The point you are missing is that this election is for the people, regular people. We are tired of being ignored.
No, I get that. There seems to be no other possible explanation for why anyone would vote for Trump.
yes other reasons include veterans who need our attention and immigration that is out of control. I'm sure there are more.
Experts have been failing us too long now. Americans are tired of studies, experts & blah blah. Time for change. Just watch.
we need fewer people who read and write books and junk.
Ok. IMO, saying things are true doesn't make them true, no matter how much we might wish otherwise. But it's just my opinion.
I'm sorry your loved ones have lost their jobs.
not just me but millions of people. This is why you are looking at an election with these numbers
Saying "I'll bring jobs back" is not a plan. It's rhetoric. It also mirrors Clinton's rhetoric...
He said going through and finding needless regulations would be one of the first priorities.
If he were serious, don't you think he could find some even before he becomes president?
and if Clinton was serious don't you think she could come up with a better jobs idea before hand? She offers nothing.
She offers continuity with Obama. ICYMI: nytimes.com/2016/09/26/bus…
There lies your problem. Besides the fact that she isn't Obama. She is a boring, bland, pandering, sarcastic person.
By wearing a cap saying 'Make America great again' of course!
You are so gullible if you believe Trump's pitch about bringing American manufacturing back. He is a hell of a conman
certainly better than the non existent pitch of Clinton about how she plans to help the average American.
I don't like Clinton either but you fell for Trump's con like everyone else. He is such a god bullshit artist.
Because people are finally waking up and making the right decisions.
The Putin here explains everything.
Because she a nasty old crooked cunt. Time to make America great again.
becuase we're sick of your PC shit
What PC shit would that be, deplorable anus?
She's a terrible politician who a majority of people really dislike? Just a guess.
ERRONEOUS! She is running against the apocalypse!
That leftists can't figure out why she is 1 of worst nominees in history is HILARIOUS. Proves how out of touch
Funny how you said 'erroneous' and then cited completely irrelevant information.
Correction. She's tied with the apocalypse.
You realize the same criticism apply to Trump, who has even lower favorability, right?
I do. You understand they're tied, yes?
Yes? I'm saying your explanation doesn't hold water. People don't change their choice overnight.
My explanation for them being tied is that they're both held in roughly the same amount of contempt. What's yours?
My explanation involves non-response bias and interesting polling quirks that I can't really get into with 140 chars.
Little notable news has broke. What's your explanation for polls showing a quick huge swing to Trump in absence of a cause?
Trump has mostly kept his mouth shut for over a week. That's enough to make him look almost sane in comparison to before.
But I agree, I don't think this race is tied. I feel like Hillary is at least up a few points in reality.
He's solidifying Repubs. The LV adjustment helps him. It's not a mystery and can easily be summarised in 140 characters.
Missing the point. Clinton recovering from Healthgate, up to 60% on 23rd. Then an anomalous plummet. I'm asking: why?
Wikileaks, DCLeaks, and Guccifer2, coupled with the consistent lying and appearance of failing health?
I think Nate is trying to recover some credibility before 11/8. She was never going to win.
just chiming in this thread to tell you guys how dumb you are from believing agenda polls/opinion
HRC disappears for days, Trump visits Mexico, has some good speeches. Bombings/shootings, BLM. Adds up.
Fence-sitters are starting to decide, and fair or not, the perception of law and order breakdown helps Trump
Did they all decide overnight? As I said, the explanation doesn't hold water. The data is there,yes, but why?
A minimally rational Republican would be at 60-40 over Clinton as we knew all along.
This is true. Every day Trump doesn't kill someone is a losing day for her.
I can't find a brilliant tweet from ~May, "He just had to sit back and let everyone talk..."
"... and by November we'll feel he's been in office for a year and things are okay, so ..."
Tonight we will see if he can pull that off when it's only 2 people on stage.
Why do you say it was overnight? Hasn't it been trending this way slowly for a couple of weeks?
Check the trend graph on 538. Clinton was at a high of 60% on the 23rd.
It is not rational to look at a record of 538's subjective probabilities as if it were data.
The "subjective" data is taken from the polls. You can't accept these polls and reject the 23rd's.
You were impressed by the size of her lead at ~60% but this was based on small leads in a few states.
Hey, I trust in the forecasts. Small leads decide most elections, especially presidential ones.
Yeah, I don't know. My best guess would be the bombings and NC. Crazy election.
and now Houston this morning. And don't forget Minnesota either.
bombings,recent mall attacks, NC riots, shall I go on?
I think folks are reacting to the Animal Farming of America. Some think this is last chance
About 2 days, in the absence of a cause, Clinton went from recovering from Healthgate to plummeting. Strange.
I think it's just cumulative bc email stuff, bombings, NC. I also think it will swing back toward Clinton.
Maybe, it was starting to swing back to Clinton again after Healthgate. Only time will tell.
perhaps her collapsing face first into her black ambulance has something to do with it 🤔🤔
You really haven't been following the polls have you? She was recovering from that. This is new.
no trust me I've been watching - polls lag
polls lag behind events - she fell on her face, called 25% of the US deplorable. sinks in.
is correct. Don't argue because you don't like the results.
I'm disputing Callum's explanation, not Nate Silver's data.
Conservatives are getting used to the idea. Everyone has always agreed Jeb! would be at 60-40 against HRC
& you blame HRC alone vs 25 yrs character assassination & millions free media support & shielding for Trump.
Agree. There isn't a huge swath of undecided voters out there. @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV @NateSilver538
I think some Trump & Bernie folks are still willing to become sane
This was from June, too. A lifetime ago in politics. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV @NateSilver538
Even if it's down to 15% today undecideds can swing the election.
I really don't think so............Do you know many? @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV @NateSilver538
I'm an undecided voter and I personally know about another dozen.
I'm assuming that may be because you don't converse w/ many people aged 40 & under
I have 4 children---from 17 to 35. Yes, I converse. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV
I'd be willing to wager that your kids know more than a few undecided voters.
They were Bernie but now Hillary. Can't say they AL adore her but can't go backwards. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV
Actually, no, they don't. Youngest is college freshman so her friends are a bit older. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV
Ok you're right there are no undecideds.
I'm sure there are but if you look at poll statistics, there aren't many polled. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV
The undecideds are not huge part of many polls & could change direction. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV
Undecideds and independents will decide this election, whether you like it or not.
Please don't tell me that you believe only Bernie voters were indy voters. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV
Why would I tell you that?
End of day, we are putting someone into office that can affect country for generations. Thanks for convo---gotta get back to work.
What makes you think I don't like it? Most people I know are indys; lean one way. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV
Perhaps because of your reluctance to recognize the enormous amount of undecideds.
My neighbors on both sides of my house are Republicans---they will not be voting for Trump; they just can't do it.
My wife, my mother, my brother and myself are all dem voters who won't vote for HRC. There are millions just like us.
We have two choices here; either a progressive or not. Not rocket science to know where your best interests lie based on that.
HRC's lack of progressivism is one of the main reasons why I probably won't vote for her. Also, there are more than 2 choices.
One of the 2 major parties will win so no, not more choices. Have a good one!
Does this look like only two choices to you? vote-ny.org/Election.aspx?…
REALITY: one of the two major party candidates will win.
She's very progressive. Tim Kaine also. Many articles out there outline her history of progressiveness. You can look if interested.
Shes a fckn crook
Are you incredibly stupid or just play so on Twitter? @Milmore
Im as real as the xtreme closeup picture you use onTwitter
Dude----you can't see anything but your head either. This is Twitter, not Playboy. @Milmore
Oh, for crissake. Get a grip! @Milmore
Only if you loosen your grip on cheesebrugers
You might wanna take your own advice there, chubs. @Milmore
"Chubs" is that last thing youll ever get out of me or any other guy hy the look of it
lmao----you come across as a moron, throwing out insults isn't making the case that you're not. @Milmore
Voting for AUMF, Patriot Act, a southern border fence & TARP isn't progressive. Denying SSM until 2013 isn't progressive.
Look at her policies. I hate to tell you this but she was more progressive than Sanders on gay rights, Marriage, both came later.
I lived near Burlington when he was mayor---not all that much on his radar.
An opinion piece. Where is politifact, Snopes or factchecker?
Sanders always more focused on wealth inequalities than anything else; not to say he wasn't supportive but not top issue for him.
It's more than an opinion and the other link I posted quotes an interview directly with Sanders.
Donna, you're loyalty and devotion blinds you. Both were late to the party, but Clinton was later than Sanders.
No use arguing over this---they are both supportive now.
Marriage & equal rights support are 2 different things. I know she was later---not much!
I didn't call Sanders a pioneer, I correctly stated that he publicly supported LGBT rights before HRC.
She supported gay rights, they were both later to the table on marriage. @HuffPostPol
KEY here: 2006
Key here: voted against DOMA and championed Vermont's decision to become first state to legalize same sex unions.
Failing to crackdown on fracking isn't progressive. "Looking at Iraq as a business decision" isn't progressive.
Look at her policies on energy.
I'm familiar w/ her positions on energy. She believes fracking is a states right issue & voted to expanded offshore drilling.
Proposing a Syrian no fly zone isn't progressive. Supporting the death penalty isn't progressive. Who's kidding whom here?
I just said that most ppl I know are indy---they are not undecided. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV
I fully recognize that independent doesn't necessarily mean undecided. Some are, some aren't.
Yes, I get what you are saying---supporting 3rd party is not undecided. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV
Because I find both major party candidates to be completely abysmal
I'm not sure what your political leanings are but both are not equal. @Peter_Sallale @FeelTheCritique @DJLouieXIV @NateSilver538
Lifelong Dem voter. While both are very different they are equally atrocious to me
People had to get a view besides the biased media. Once they did.... well...
Bring the apocalypse, them. I love the smell of whinging shitlibs in the morning.
In your opinion. For many people its Hillary that is the apocalypse.
#CrookedHillary is the apocalypse get ready #libtards here comes the #TrumpTrain
In the minds of many apocalyspe is allready here. It is the status quo HRC promises to continue.
and Trump has no qualifications to run the country.
tell me more about these 'qualifications'
yea i agreed, it will be a sad day that when trump gets elected.
yeah, but it's not like the other option is a better choice.
the man is a racist moron bigot what does that say about u he will be in Jail for fraud or rape
Even with the entire media demonising her opponent and his voters 24/7 Hillary isn't winning
Speak for yourself. Been attacked relentlessly & public lied to. Tell us about your 40 yr public service record
I'm not saying if it's fair or not. It is a fact.
It is not a "fact." It is completely your interpretation. Many deliberate factors drive her unfavorability #'s.
You're saying it's not true that according to polls most Americans don't have a favourable view of her? OK :)
No: you said she's a terrible candidate vs 25 yr propaganda campaign. & partisan tightening always happens.
& for all your hair on fire blame: In 2012 Obama WON 51.1% to Romney 47.2%.
People want a real leader.
Because she sucks. Pure and simple. Couldn't even take out a 75-yo socialist without cheating.
It's happening b/c 50% have IQs below 100 and cannot think for themselves & watch Fox News lies 24/7.
Which lies would you prefer them to watch
When are you going to stop beating your wife?
Fox News has 3 mil viewers. Trump is slated to receive over 60 million votes. This tweet is silly
I blame Bernie Sanders. Don't @ me.
dems aren't helping by bullying people into voting for her...
people don't trust HRC and don't have a good enough reason to support her over Trump unfortunately...
People realize Clinton isn't going away. If we wanted her she never would have lost to the black guy.
because people have always hated her.
Becasue he is going to build a wall and force Mexico to pay for it
Bc she's fucking horrible you dope!
Because the moronic Dems chose her over Bernie
because Hillary is crooked
because now polling companies cannot over sample democrats like they have. Ohhh yeah and the MN BLM destroying cities
because media is unable to lie anymore
why is this happening?
Why wouldn't it be happening?
BC of Hubris of Dem Est.& lack of imagination from Boomer Hilbots who chose status quo HRC over Populist Sanders.
On a message board, I saw someone suggest the Charlotte protests were the reason :(
"Protests"? They certainly aren't helping.
That's ridiculous. The protests had no impact. The rioting and looting might have had some though.
Because America wants to be great again.
How is it not great now and what will Trump do to make it great again?
Bring back jobs.
Which jobs? How?
Particularly manufacturing jobs. But all kinds of jobs. Also will have law & order. No more riots or race-baiting garbage.
How will he stop riots?
he will have a aggressive police force.
Isn't an overly aggressive police force why people are rioting in Charlotte?
yea that true, but Donald Trump want a aggressive police
Manufacturing jobs aren't coming back. Even if they did, companies will automate things as soon as they can to save money.
Is that a threat ?
It's a fact of capitalism. If the US tried to make everything here and ignored automation, other countries wouldn't.
Time to remove spics,segregate the negro and take our shit back from mexico
America's consumer market is our #1 negotiating chip in world economy. Saving US jobs=only way to preserve that,
I agree we need a plan for more US jobs, but trying to jump back to the '50s through tariffs & new deals ...
... just won't work. There's no way to stop globalization.
The steel dumping cases of the late 1980-1990's. US was screwed by a foreign court. Stop giving away sovereignty.
Not stop globalization, no, we need to stop the abuse of trade deals. Bilateral deals are better for US.
Which abusive trade deals?
No matter what, China will surpass our consumer market soon. Bargaining chip will soon disappear.
Due to shipping costs, many China goods are not substantially cheaper to buy. Small changes in tariffs can fix it.
China is not where manufacturing jobs are. They are elsewhere in SE Asia. Tariffs just strengthen China's hand
They are in China and other places. We would be better off with bilateral deals.
I do think that there needs to be a source of shared oversight for international trade.
Why? and who ultimately runs that organization?
Because how else do you resolve disputes without war?
The bi-lateral agreements are between the two parties. What evidence is there that any int'l org stops war?
No major hot wars between large countries since WW2 and founding of UN. Do you have a better idea?
Your thesis is the UN stopped major wars. My thesis? Our nukes. With or without the UN, we still have them.
Interesting. I will look into that.
US #1 trading partner in 1991? Canada. The US can absolutely change the trajectory...by a lot.
I'm not sure why that invalidates his point.
His point is stupid. Whole reason shit is made in China is cos it's the only way you can compete.
Manufacturing is moving out of China to where it's cheaper elsewhere in SE Asia.
SMH. System & trade deals mean most businesses will make products outside of the US. Big problem.
So how is Trump going to fix that?
He can renegotiate and prevent future disasters. Tell me—what the hell is Hillary going to do about it?
and automation will reduce the people needed to far fewer when the steel mills/auto industry at their peak.
I see no evidence of how Trump will create the # of jobs that he is promising. No way to rewind clock.
So, it's panic time for Democrats?
no, it's organize time. Democrats like to sit behind keyboards and panic, but need more action on the ground.
Feeling ill. @NateSilver538
The latest polling is consistent with a Clinton lead of only ~1% nationally. State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful.
Get dem clicks baby!
I think your wrong on Fl and NV. Huge Latino populations
Except the white population is a lot bigger in both.
your assuming the entire white population will vote for Trump. Obama won both in 2008 and 2012
Stop everything folks! Random dude on Twitter certain he knows more than Nate Silver! lol
actually 538 still has Hillary winning but please continue
Oh do they? I guess you're in denial, as most libs are. Tee Hee. #MAGA
I didn't assume that
Trump is polling at historically bad numbers with women, blacks, and Latinos. He's also losing white college vote.
And yet he's tied with her and leading 538's Now Cast projection
he's still losing 538. Hillary still wins the election under 538
Not in the Now Cast. And they're virtually tied in polls-only and polls-plus
that's assuming Trump wins FL, OH, NC and NV. If he loses any the election is over
Thing is, if he wins 2 of those it means he wins all 4 of those
we'll see on Election Day
We now see @HillaryClinton is unelectable after diving in the #polls while spending $300MM more than @realDonaldTrump in ads
Sounds kinda like Jeb, no!?
Alright, time for the final galactic orgy before the end-times
turning it into a referendum on PC - deplorables, BLM, Skittles, etc. That's her only path 2 loss
this is wonderful news. God bless Trump. Long live Trump. Pack your bags lib celebs. Move as u promised.
trump is the man!!!
There's a better explanation other than excepting they're "consistent".
you're killing me
Clinton pointing out the full throated support of Trump by racists and white supremacists made him even more attractive...
uh, no. I like how we dismiss any poll that happened yesterday or even good Clinton polls today. She's still up 3 points
unless HRC has sth up in her sleeve this seems over
Huh? that's a silly comment
I desperately wish DJT lose but everything that we can infer is very clearly showing a DJT win
Somebody call the Whamber Lamps
who the hell is paying YOU to push the horserace narrative?
this looks awesome. Firewall is gone!!!
white people are dumb
Trmp wll do wrse or no bettr thn Romny wth blck & latino votrs, has their votng powr ben overestimtd, at least for ths cycle?
LMAO Nate, nice clickbait. The only firewall state that is concerning is Colorado, and it is a nightmare to poll.
Maine, PA. Let's see what new NH polls show.
When the one recent PA poll showing Trump close couldn't find enough blacks for a sample, I'm a skeptic.
Two actually, but keep watching
Did Russia hack the damn polls or are there really this many stupid people in my country? #ImWithHer
Can we please fix the First Past The Post problem now, or are we still pretending its not that bad?
"Not being Trump not sufficient for worse Dem candidate ever, experts baffled"
The low bar for Trump just got raised much higher because polls show it's looking like his election to lose now.
no, it's still Cliton's to lose. Trump dont realy care, he's rich as f*** after all...
what do you mean Bruce?
the polls of CNN & LA are skewed she has 4 Nat 5 Penn they do this for ratings it isn't that close
That too with D+ samples
Might want to start tweeting out the suicide hotline as a public service.
Nate Silver Credibility: Finished.
Oh my. Nate may have to change his last name to Zinc.
She's now terrified of a humble Trump at the debate tonight.
It's a change election and people seem to forget that but this is a very sad time that a feckless citizen like Trump can win.
Mo, Larry, the Cheese!! (Curly goes into frantic spasm)
you spelt 'beautiful' wrong.
I'm a firm believer that this narrowing of the polls is all build up for the super bowl atmosphere surrounding debate.
let's see where we are in a week. If Trump is ahead at that point I will start to book my overseas travel plans.
You can thank your national media. You all wanted this. You got it.
genuine question: did you have to change your model after it missed Trump in the primaries?
his model accurately predicted the primary. His punditry did not.He guessed based on his guy trump would fade in polls
based on his gut*
It's a completely different set of models. Can't use the same model for every election. Primaries very dif. than gen.
They weren't using a model during the primaries, to my knowledge. They were just looking at polling data and past results.
Model didn't miss Trump in the primaries. Opinion journalism prevailed at 538 until there was enough data to model.
ahh ok thanks. I was curious if model changes and the 10k simulations are converging or oscillating around limit
There are some graphs down at the bottom of the forecast page to visualize that.
wicked 😎 😂😂😂😂😂
This is just the beginning her support is crumbling. Events are rapidly leading to a landslide in Nov.
These next few weeks are make or break. Does Johnson maintain his polling (or do his voters swing to Clinton)?
Do minorities come out in Obama numbers? Do non-college white males vote in droves like some are suggesting?
All of that will shape the race & make for either a large Clinton win, a close HRC win, or a close Trump win.
remember everyone laughed when Sanders kept on saying that he had a better chance of defeating Trump then HRC
Looking forward to Nate's article on 11-9 about how he overcompensated for Trump primary call with doom/gloom general. Relax.
Ds against Trump, Rs against him, newspapers against him, blatant lies, crazy aides. Numbers don't add up.
this should come with a trigger warning. What is happening?
Is anybody asking why?
I think nate meant to say that trenlines are great! @NateSilver538 @allahpundit
I love following Nate and seeing his followers finally waking up to reality the tears of liberals are delicious😂😂😂
I know! Salty but oh so sweet at the same time!
you said last week the Dems might have to start panicking. Do they need to panic now?
Media click stuff. All of this right before the debate? I don't buy it
last time I heard @realDonaldTrump /firewall was Cruz/firewall- so yah, there's that.
your bias is showing
Can't Stump the Trump!
Trumps gonna win I love reading butt hurt democrats 😝
So you want a dictatorship?
lol you are dumb if you think this. Muted
Yep, libbies gonna lib. They just can't help themselves.
Nate Silver suicide watch.
what do you think of the theory that pollsters boost Trump before the debate to create a Clinton momentum afterward?
That means we have a totally, transparently, irredeemably corrupt system.
a black man for president followed by possibility of electing a woman for president. Too much for the traditionalists.
Trend line pointing towards Trump with comfortable electoral college victory, no?
Ah, what a fine Monday! Birds singing, #sinkinghillary sinking...it's glorious!
f*ck you @chucktodd @MSNBC @NBCNews @CNN @ABC @CBSNews for the Trump shit show. If u had done your jobs it wouldn't be close.
RCP avg this AM has Clinton up 2.1%. A week ago, she was up only 0.9%. She has more than doubled her margin. #trend_line
Woo hoo! Are you listening #DNC? This is what happens when you cheat. #demexit #JillNotHill 🌍💚🌻☀️
wonder what will happen tonight…
you aren't helping me feel better.
"awful" if you are a HRC supporter. So much for being impartial I guess.
Nate is FAR from impartial. I'm surprised he's admitting it's this close
Why are people so stupid?
I know. Who would vote for Hillary?
As someone that votes 3rd party I get people being against Hillary but I don't know who would votes for him
I have ZERO sympathy for @TheDemocrats! They HAD a winner in @SenSanders but they trashed him so HC could have her 'moment'.
Oh, she's having her "moment", alright! lol!
The AP & NYT misleading headlines started the slide; guess they arereal happy w/ themselves
You all know it. You all know it's coming. Only the willfully blind refuse to admit the @HillaryClinton implosion.
Chasing trendlines is what led you to say she had a 90% chance of win a month ago. Agree this is close, but model needs fixin
Really, kind of makes a joke of Nate Silver's site if he is predicting 92% one month and toss up the next.
It actually reinforces the fact that the more people see & hear Hillary, the more they hate her.
It's fine for the "now cast" but useless for long-term predictions
this is why this is happening
what happend to averages? one national poll has trump ahead & u get freaked out. omg
It's beautiful, man...
Well done defenders of truth! Media has turned this into a farce, trying to control narrative to maximize profits.
NC riot and today's Houston shooting will also drop her points in a week
You mean awfully good right? Or is it just your bias showing.
The firewalls will Fall. head for the Hills for the abomination will stand where it should not go.
jeezus h christ we are doomed.
"Trend lines awful." In what sense? Statistically? For the welfare of the country and the world? Or something else?
GO TRUMP!!! We need an outsider ... not Crooked Hillary.
outstanding news! Keep up the good work
its for reals now Trump victory is unstoppable bc HRC is a fatally flawed candidate who will not be able to turn out DEM base
To what degree is this undecideds deciding?
Yup. Trump leading in CO now, that puts him over 270. @HelenBrosnan you like that?
What is the point of 538 anyway?
Seriously, What is the point of 538???
you mean trend lines are EXCELLENT!! #MAGA
because now polling companies are not over sampling democrats like they have in all the once prior to now
What's depressing is that Hillary is doubling down on a losing strategy. Facts and wonkery won't change anybody's mind.
Nate Silver hardest hit
Awful for the leeches who live off of the government teat? I sure hope so.
crazy thing Trump hasn't even started advertising yet in all those swing states he's surging in.
"Things fall apart... The center cannot hold..."
With @NateSilver538 all bombastic you'd think these presidential polls are like a day traded stock!
"Awful" really telegraphs a rooting interest here, Nate. Perhaps you want to rephrase "awful" to "OMFG!!!"?
Trump has never been a politician. That's why he is insulated to a degree from all the vitriol.
trump has won. Accept it and prepare for 2020
Why did they put all of their chips into such a fatally flawed candidate?Seriously.Didnt the power structure see this coming?
'Awful' belies your #Dembias
I'm from PA, he's gonna win Pgh & the middle of the state, just a few more votes from the Philly counties, and it's ovah MAGA
Even a 1% lead is disconcerting! Don't these voters realize she is a Criminal,liar,cheater,power hungry HAG!
It's happening!
these daily polls don't mean much, they change to much.
her big leads in Colorado and Pennsylvania are gone. very worrying trend numbers for the Clinton campaign
State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful. I can feel Trump overt/ake me. Thi/s is the last tr/ansmissi/on. - Clinton
people also forgetting about wikileaks. Late October dump will seal the deal even if there is debate bump
The Pepes are coming! The Pepes are coming!!
I told you so VERY long ago... @realDonaldTrump will win landslide and across the board...
So we should worry about the polls now?
it's happening because she sucks.
here we go #TrumpTrain, do it with me now:
Does this mean it's panic time?
300+ electoral vote win for Trump - this will metastasize
Trump voters 1000 times more enthused than HC's. Not dead heat as Trump too good in battlegrounds.
Define "awful"
Why is $he not 50 points ahead by now?
you're no better than a local weatherman
Not @NateSilver538, I don't believe you. You took a mtg w/ TrumpS Ppl & now this. You're not my go to anymore
I guess if you believe in these highly prejudicial polls,you would accept this.all polls are hypotheticals that exists where?
- Hillary should consider pressing the "reset" in her denunciation America's peace officers.
it's nice to see you finally smelled BREXIT & found Truth. Welcome back. Please invoke Walter Cronkite's ghost.
What happened to your 70-80 percent chance of Hillary winning?
however this shakes out, wherever the truth lies, I'm saying this w/ all due respect: STFU.
look at the #libtard meltdown all over #NATESILVER's Twitter account. Love it! #CrookedHillary is toast! #TrumpTrain
It's almost like pivoting to painting trump as worse than Republicans was the worst decision ever.
Awful for liberals and #CrookedHillary
Trump wall "towers over Hillary's firewall
yell at people more. Smack them in the head. They must know they are racists. All of them!
Remember Nate, those polls rarely get DE and lower responders. Trump is leading and you know it
I would phrase it more as, the battlefield is widening and the firewall being stretched very thin.
in the year of the outsider, her actions appear elitist, trump somehow gets his message across to people, as did Bernie
TRUMP 2016! Get used to it Nate!
really pushing the narrative LOL, I will trust Mr. Plouffe :-)
...coronations don't go over well in a republic...just ask Julius Ceasar...
Lmfao. .. awful for you canidate? Gdamn, at least TRY to hide your bias. #fucktrump
none of you believed Bernie supporters, hillbots told us they dont NEED our votes #StillSanders #wetoldyouso
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado will be the pivotal states.
Yeah dipshit Democrats, well done... #BringBernieBack
3) The evidence Sanders was most electable was clear. Pundits must be held accountable for ignoring/downplaying it. 34justice.com/2016/02/11/evi…
Bernie is gone. Won't be on ballots except when some very few pencil him in against his wishes.
I'm aware, not the point of my tweet. Establishment Dems best not blame Bernie or his millennials when HRC tanks
you're a moron
It's happening because @TheDemocrats picked the only candidate can't beat Trump. Idiots.
- We'll wait for your apology. Explaining the issue in depth months ago seemed to fall on deaf ears.
Wow, in 8 years from wonder boy to punch line. Maybe you and Pat Caddell can get together and start doing podcasts.
but I bought Bernie couldn't win? Oops. You probably meant HRC.
maybe she and her allies should have been respectful to Bernie and his supporters and not gave em' the bird to court the GOP!
your so full of shit
I can tell you why. Bernie Sanders voters not voting for Clinton. Majority of African Americans not motivated by Clinton.
makes me wonder how far ahead sanders would be at this point #BringBernieBack
of course it is Nate. Cause that's what the media including people like you want. At all costs, including at our expense
lot of dupes in denial here blaming 538 for scary news. Why don't you accept it, mobilize and vote against it?
Well that's just great. I don't have another pair of pants.
Any chance to address the massive gap in money raised, but Clinton not seeming to get anything out of it in the polls?
Isn't it kinda weird that there are basically the same amount of undecideds now as in April? Decides fluctuate, but no break.
Nate, I liked you more when you just played poker. Ugh.
doom, dahling.
her chances are still too high, Nate
For the life of me, I cannot get my head around this, that this is the state of this country.
so this is your Garfield equivalent to "Mondays"?
I'm a pollster and using your stats, I have Hillary at 60/40 using YOUR NUMBERS lol
that's a huge drop. Holy crap.
that's really depressing do you think half the voters really do want a fascist government like the ppl in the Philippines?
this is.....debilitating.
Your math on your 'Now Cast' doesn't add up. Adding states electoral votes Trump is at 266, not 276. Clinton at 272, not 261
Yes, I don't get this - doesn't appear to be any change in who's winning each state from now-cast 2 polls. ??
That's why it's probabilistic: Trump has a higher chance of winning CO OR NH than individually.
Except for the fact, the debate is tonight and you are jumping on the hype up a dead heat race
One reason why this was predictable: Any tightening would embolden the "hidden" Trump vote to declare. Social acceptability.
And tightening was absolutely inevitable coming out the DNC. To think otherwise would be, well, kinda silly.
Didn't happen with Mitt until day after the debate.
Uh-huh. Very, very different candidates with very, very different demos. Fun times, comrade. ;/
Comrade. using that language now will not keep YOU out of the gulag, comrade.
Ohh, I love veiled threats. It's so fun. So very #CheetoBenito, ya know?
I see my predictions for this model are right on schedule. Trump ahead by next week
Same here! I predicted this!
this looks like what the popular vote will reflect. I still think the polls are missing something.
Now-cast has it 45-55? You're absolutely insane...almost to the point of card showing...:-)
LOL like he's ever done a DAY of manual labor.
There is literally no justification in your stats to drop HRC10% points in 2 days with only a few polls and most going to HRC
has be be pissing you off
😒 media only happy unless it's a horse race... No matter how evil the other candidate is... 😑
Just in time for the debate!
Awesome. Excuse me--I'm going to go vomit profusely now.
Go home 538, you're drunk.
wow, this is slipping away. She's starting to look like the 1978 Red Sox
No wow - reality check. America has no chance to be great with an unqualified celebrity as POTUS. Sad. #TrumpLies
was thinking the 64 Phils, but same gist
78 Sox were a sloooow decline from July through Sept, similar to Hillster. 64 Phils collapsed over a 2 week span
what's more appropriate - I hate these 2 candidates almost as much as I hate the Sox and Yankees. Fitting.
oh you don't have to tell us, the city still lives w it!! LOL. But yeah, Sox metaphor more appropriate.
Shit just got real!
we are so screwed
lmao.....nates suckering trump voters to lay money down
how has it become popular on both the right and the left to say statisticians are lying abt their cand's odds?
🙄 Suuuurreee...
independent of Nate, polls showing close in states 😕
It's a gimmick to drive ratings...the underlying data is shaky.
curious which ones you think are shaky ( btw this is me trying to not bed wet, lol)
Tightening swing state polls isn't good enough for the unbiased observer, of course.
No stopping the Trump Train now, the Silent Majority is finally awake.
go back to projecting burritos, nate
Curious: how does the NowCast have Trump with a 54% chance yet show Hillary with a lead in the pop. and electoral vote?
How cold does Canada get in the Winter?
great news. Billary losing ground.
confirmation 47% of Americans are as dumb as a box of rocks. Putin has the upper hand in a #trump presidency
#Clinton lost last year. Demographics and economy tipped it and poll samples were skewed so you kept all in denial.
Donald Trump To Run This Country...What An Embarrassment.
Time to go buy some tequila.
All due to 1 (Selzer) poll -- should one bad poll be able to bring it down 7-8%?
Boy oh boy, are white men on Twitter going to have opinions on this.
if that is the case your country is full of orange coloured Nazis
Her policy on Islam and Ukraine is more similar to the Nazis' than Trump's.
Too early. Check again 11/5
Murica. Where the ignorant masses want a racist, angry, insane, reality TV star for president because "BENGHAZI!"#nevertrump
but somehow "Hillary's worse" ;)
because Trump can be a misogynist, demagogue, birther, and have the temperament of a squirrel and indecisive, but
there was somebody that was beating trump by double digits..can't remember his name
This is the moment Nate has been waiting for.
I've been seeing Clinton ads back on the air on CO the last week or so, hopefully she's ready to fight hard here & in VA & NH
... time to get Plouffe back on the pod. Bed wetting at defcon 5. 💦🛌
Saddest statement about this election;HRC qualified for the job but has to prove 'likeability' against a celebrity #TrumpLies
Sorry, this poll tightening smacks of MSM trying to generate interest for debates.
Read and calm yourselves. OHM. SHANTI. OHM. washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
What's "dead" is Hillarys campaign.
so Dems should be panicking now right?
Of course. That party is done if Trump wins.
The ones who have yet to #DemExit, yes. I left the party when they denied @BernieSanders, as did others.
I understand your frustration. But the fact remains that our next president will be one of two people. Make your choice.
Nope. I will #WriteInBernieSanders or go with @DrJillStein. Haven't decided 100% yet. #BernieOrBust, as they say.
The world should be panicking
And it took the combined efforts of NBC, ABC, CBS and CN..whatever to do this. We're going to elect a fascist for ratings.
This is what Hillary needs. There will be zero complantency by her supporters.
So we are right back where we were after the Rnc....dead even.. with six weeks out. FUN STUFF!
Can white males without a college degree elect Trump like they elected Jessa Ventura?
What % of registered voters are white m w/o a college degree? Is it the same as blacks+hispanics?
yes they can elect Trump if Millennials vote 3rd party or stay home
A "dead heat" - all of a sudden on debate night? Too much of a coincidence. Media manipulation I'm sorry, but this is bogus.
Amazing how @HillaryClinton w/all her resources & experience is on the verge of trailing Trump nationally. Need new strategy
*Hmm, a dead heat on the day of the debate. I think we're all being played here. Time to take a break from click bait.
pardon the ignorance, but I know no such thing as momentum in sports, but is there such thing a thing in politics?
are the polls only tracking people on landlines?
Not it is not. How are blacks, Hispanics, millennials and women being polled?
No, it's nose and nose. A dead heat is at the finish. Journalists really need to start going to the track again.
NO @NateSilver538 the polls say it's a dead heat. Polls also sayshe wins women, educated & all minorities. Ground game is worth 2-3% points
the fact that a self-proclaimed "great nation" has allowed a destructive racist to advance this far shows how "great" we are
Trump wasn't behind the Libyan intervention, didn't vote for the Iraq War, and has a sensible policy on SY. Try again.
Did the United States take the oil, like he suggested? No? So shut up.
I'm sorry life is going poorly for you.
It's not. Going great. Trump 2016!
the outcome isn't even important at this point. We've shown the world how weak and vulnerable we are.
In one week, clinton will be back up again by 8 points nationally.
I'll ask every day, which of your models takes into account the oversampling of republicans
No no no. Lol Show 'em your nowcast, Nate.
didn't something similar happen in 2012?
How!!??!! How is it this close!!??!! What is going on!?!!?
how many more times will you go from 80/20 to toss up?
"@NateSilver538 It's a dead heat." Ya, I saw the same polls as you. You are not adding anything.
you seem to misunderstand the difference between a model and a poll. @NateSilver538
lol but there are those who rely on him to confirm the facts
Wishing for a new law requiring @NateSilver538 to take bets based on the "odds" he publishes. No way this is "dead heat."
for God's sake, folks. Stop beating up on Nate. We still have over a month left to go.
Nate knows this is part of his thankless job.
We can ionly hope that Trump is true to his real self in tonight's debate so...
Except Clinton HAS in your numbers 272 EV's and is AHEAD...Get THAT headline son!
Disgusting. Americans are voting for their own demise. Trump hates the US Constitution & especially the 14th Amend.
too early to panic. I think this is a reflection of polling fatigue.
yu sure it is NOT smoke and mirrors? The best investigators can be fooled with them!
Ugh. Now I'm terrified
aaaaahhhhhh we're all gonna die cats and dogs living together women and children first Ann-Margaret's not coming
thats why u adjusted 4 polls for Clinton today. think nobody notices? youre a joke.
remember when we said no way he'd make it this far? welp not this much more far?hes going to f'ing win.look at map.
just means I'm going to get a good price on Hillary to win
this shift has been absurd in the last couple weeks. why have all the polls shifted out of nowhere?? hes going to win now?wtf
Based on prior trends of "newsy" vs "non-newsy" times, smart money has to be on Clinton lead returning post-debates, right?
■ECN:C+4 ■BH:C+2 ■MAR:C+7 ■AP:C+6 ■ABC:C +2 ■REU:C+4 ■GR:C+4 ■PEW:C+7 ■IC:C+5 ■WSJ:C+7 ■SL: C+5 ■ARG: C+3 ■QUI: C+1 ■MOR: C+2
not a dead heat. All B.S. Trump far ahead
Yep. If they allowed the real numbers to be shown the HRC supporters would commit suicide.
I hope you are correct Debbie!!
Seeing the results of this latest projection:
seems like Stein and Johnson are taking tons of votes from Clinton....is there data to back this thought?
poor Jiff Myst @JeffMossDSR and his liberal minion worshipers have been telling everyone it will be an all out ambush.
Don’t fret about polls. Clinton is winning, and she can finish the job tonight. - The Washington Post apple.news/AxEDvcEj_RXaxu…
Why does Now-Cast show @HillaryClinton winning 273 e-votes, but @realDonaldTrump 55% chance to win today?
What is wrong with people?
You guys propagate Heisenberg effect. Stop polling for 5 minutes. Take 4 day nap. Then wait another week b4 next poll. Pls.
read it and weep all you #CrookedHillary supporting #libtard #liars #TrumpPence16 gonna get run over by the #TrumpTrain
But it's a DRY dead heat. So...
We TOLD you. We SAID: "She's not popular. She's a terrible campaigner. She will lose to Trump." Making history yet?
terrifying. media failed to hold him accountable, treating him like he's not a joke. Not reporting scandals.
panic time for HRC?
Now I'm scared 😱
I'll bet anyone that @HillaryClinton wins by double digits...I think the polls are way off #itwontbeclose
I'm looking closer at the methodology changes, and now I'm starting to suspect the prediction. Disappointing, Mr. Silver.
The horsiest horserace that ever raced. Repeat until election and keep coming back to read our articles.
My heart actually hurts from this shit. I don't know how this can be happening.
Get in line. I've recently committed to wearing plastic clothing merely to expedite the cleanup process.
you're nuts man.
Nate,we love your work.How is it possible for an human trash fire to be tied with Hillary?
Man, Hillary is blowing it!
I am disgusted, and ashamed, and scared. And I will never recover my sense of this country's basic sanity.
My response to every @NateSilver538 Tweet lately
How can that be?
What the fuck is going on with this country?
Call me crazy, but that doesn't look like an official ballot.
keen observation good Sir. 👍 But who needs official ballots anyways really? #iseedeadpeoplevotingTrump
You no longer are credible. Just saw a poll today that Hillary is leading in FL. I know, you need a horse race. Pathetic.
Why? HRC; Trump's policies will lead us into a recession DT: Hillary is a bigot MSM: The candidates exchanged insults today
No way, no way. I will be extremely ashamed of my country if this guy wins.
panicked people vote! #ImWithHer
Why do you want to rip out my soul?
Counterpoint: NO.
Thou shalt love #CrookedHillary for her email scam,13 🔨,📱,Lies,#Pay2Play,Monsanto,TPP,Wall Street & aim 2 frack us like hell
prediction Trump wins by landslide🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Who are you polling? Is this white males only? Certainly not blacks Hispanics Native Amer Asians Muslims
its not. or we dont know. why must you persist. you didnt call even the gop primary this time around.
people disagree w/your polls whenever they don't fit their agenda. Should have listened to us #Berners. Bernie>Trump #ToldYa
typical clintonite tactic - we know he is ahead & she is panicking ready for ER drama w bill & nurses #NeverHillary
3rd time is not a charm 😂 again 538 will come out as the total failure like brexit and primaries...watch!
Daniel Scavino Jr. of the Trump campaign photo-shopped it to make it look like Trump won and posted it.
this is just way too close for comfort 😯😦
Team Hillary better get it together. Bernie was drawing lots of independents and was beating Trump by 10.4 before DNC.
other models don't react so violently to weekly polling changes. Because they're probably not interested in headlines
having a rollercoaster (Clinton leads!!!! Trump leads!!!!) generates more attention than a consistent, boring, model
in a week, the click-bait rollercoaster will be back to saying Trump has a 25% chance
The Nate Silver rollercoaster ride, click-baits another few million
massive overreactions to outliers......
I'd trust your judgement if you were better than 66% w/your nfl picks..but you did take the pats over houston...conflicted