The future is mobile. This is no joke: if you're building things with desktop assumptions, you're building for a shrinking market.
PCs fading as fast as TV for children.
42 replies and sub-replies as of Nov 18 2016

*for children*. If you use that to ignore desktop, it's an infantilized UI instead.
industry consensus in 1984 was very clear that a mouse and GUI was 'infantilised'. That's not a useful mental model
please note the *if* you use it to *ignore* desktop. Mobile matters. It's not, however, the only gig.
It's also not a reasonable model to assume that children will use the same software when they're adults
of course. However, as a matter of fact adult use shows the same pattern
I think this is the most interesting set of statistics:
To me it’s an argument about the internet extending to new contexts of computing.
Desktop computing hasn’t really declined over the last ten years. Computing just fills up unused areas.
absolutely. computing has expanded, many things desktop only don’t have to be anymore.
the mainframe install base kept rising through 2010
we adults will always use desktops more than kids because we have jobs that require them.
"We adults will always need mainframes because we have jobs that require them'. Nope.
how about if I called them "high end, big screened computery things" instead?
So presumably those people who were arguing it was going to go away in the eighties were wrong!
Honestly, desktop usage probably *will* start to decline, but still seems more stable than people argue.
eh, I'm only arguing that web trying to span both without adopting to tighter constraints == failure
apparently my 4" iPhone SE and 13" iPad pro are both mobile. Not sure dichotomy still useful
This is why I think people are going all in on voice in homes and cars. More time of day to own.
going on the record: I think within the next 5 years, there'll be a backlash on "time used"
Me, I think the amount of the day that people use for computing / the internet will grow regardless
the anoint of compute resources, yes. Amount of time is naturally bound :)
joking aside, pace is unsustainable w/out cultural cost. And I believe that is starting to sink in.
or I'm getting all old and off-my-lawn-y. You pick :)
I’m less convinced we’re seeing a huge culture shift away from the use of Desktop devices.
yup. Mobile is augmenting, not replacing.
Although I'm not going to deny that mobile is an ever greater share of computing
in most of EM, for adults too. But yes, UIs that scale matter. My point is that low-end is reality.
This is for kids and teenagers, adults use PC all day
you can build the same thing for mobile and desktop using cross platform libraries and tools
It's probably important not to forget about the computer people use 8 hours a day every day though...
time spent on desktop is falling & most of next billion often don't own them: smartinsights.com/mobile-marketi…
mobile is important, but "time spent falling" doesn't mean "rapidly becoming irrelevant"
also, many of us don't have customers in 'next billion' yet
...and they don't have or use phones? I mean, I get that there's desktop software for desktops.
they have. But next billion is besides the point here
tools that are designed only to work on desktop should be signposted as much. Saves devs/businesses pain.
let's say you start project now. What are the odds tools haven't been fixed in 6 months when you ship?
judging from projects started 6 months ago, tragically high
that was before you started fat-shaming the frameworks. I expect the pressure to be much higher now :)
you also have to compare the added cost of maintaining your own tools, which is continuous b
(I still think people are missing out by looking at the world through a tiny screen). Go big or go REAL LIFE
Absolutely! Recent spec assumed mobile unimportant, but I coded for it anyway. Majority of sales are on mobile